Moving Forward

And I don't mean that in the progressive, O'Bomney sense. I mean it in the reactionary, neanderthalic Turd sense.

First of all, thanks to everyone who participated in the previous thread. Lots and lots of good ideas and suggestions and I can assure you that I have read each one, even the comments from banished trolls who re-registered just to tell me what a first class delta bravo I am. And another thanks, too, to all of you who have so graciously donated some of your hard-earned fiat to help with the expenses around here. As I type, we've raised enough funds to pay about 2/3 of the outstanding invoices. Very, very big thank you to all of you.

And just one more thing before we move on. I only posted the invoices from Ron and LiquidWeb so that everyone could see that I wasn't simply pretending to need a little cash infusion. In this age where it seems that nearly everyone is hiding something, I wanted to be as transparent as possible regarding expenses. That said, please understand this:

  1. The servers are expensive because we choose to have them that way. Anyone who has been around here for a while knows that we've had frequent outages and DDOS attacks. While I am considering moving to a slightly less expensive "cloud" based platform, I am reluctant to rock the boat at this point as the site, as it's currently configured, has worked seamlessly for about six, straight months.
  2. Ron and Stephanie have done an amazing job in building and maintaining this site. We wouldn't have a TFMR without them. They are not raping, pillaging or otherwise screwing me or us. To more effectively use funds, I will be assuming much of the day-to-day maintenance/monitoring/customer service from Stephanie. This will save money and, more importantly, it will allow Steph to concentrate on more fun and interesting tasks such as PR and marketing. And let me state this clearly: I have complete confidence in Ron and the Shimshock Group. If you ever need a web developer, I would give them a 100%, hearty recommendation.

OK, back to he business at hand.

What a joke today was. Standard Cartel operating procedure. Massive sell at the open and another dump into the close. You can see it all on the chart below:

Trust me, all these raids accomplish is to give you an opportunity to add some metal at a discounted price. Gold is not breaking down. THE BOTTOMS have been set at $1525 and $26. Soon, the metals will begin the "hot, explosive and historic" move that I've been mentioning for the past few months. The machinery has been set in motion and it is simply a matter of time now. Be patient and keep buying/stacking.

To that end, I have a question for you and I really need your feedback. Several folks have emailed me in the past 24 hours expressing their reluctance to join "The Army" because of its primarily-London trading hours. I certainly understand this...Turd has to sleep, too. So what do you think of this idea? I've suggested to Andy that we start an add-on service whereby he and I post our current option strategies. Similar to Andy's current "DayTrades" service where Army members can choose to follow along on his futures trades, subscribers to this potential additional service could follow along as both Andy and I trade options. Not only in the metals but in commodities such as crude and the grains, as well.

Let me be clear, here's my one mental hurdle: How do I rectify a new, options trading "service" with my oft-stated advice to avoid trading altogether? I must admit that this is a toughie because it would be easy to sound flippant or disingenuous. Here goes: IF we were to do this, it would be for options trading only. Why?

  1. Your downside (outright theft risk ala MFG) would be limited to your cash in account and already spent premium. I would insist that all program participants attempt to follow the same "rule" as regular Army members. Namely, take a cash distribution each month of all realized gains (provided there are anysmiley). You can use that cash to buy more phyzz or whatever. I don't care. Just don't leave it laying there in your account. The next Corzine may be lurking around the corner.
  2. I truly am 100% confident in the impending UP move for the metals. Combine this with more, post-election QE, the ongoing drought and inevitable MENA wars and you've got some situations that are ripe for the picking. If we can combine Andy's experience with my goofy hunches, we might be able to make some serious fiat.

So, please let me know if you would be willing to participate. The fee may be steep...but not quite as steep as the other Army services. We'll see how we actually set it up. Of course, none of this is binding. I simply need an indication of interest either through the comments section of this thread or by email at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com. I don't want to put Andy and Paul through the trouble of setting up a new service only to find out that no one wants to play along.

Moving along...how about some news? Here's one. The communist Chinese are pulling out of U.S. exchanges because they're "too corrupt". This seriously cracks me up! The commies think that WE are too corrupt!! HAHAHAHAHA!! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-companies-pull-us-stock-095649722.html

(Btw, Andy also informed me that the NASE is getting closer to opening. Bureaucratic issues are slowly being resolved and they are currently hoping for a September launch.)

Next is an interesting read from Charles Hugh Smith. http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug12/expectations8-12.html

I'm not sure what to make of this but, lately, Santa is really worked up over registration of your funds and assets. Does he know something we don't? Is he preparing for a major default/bankruptcy? I don't know but I do know that you should take the time to scroll through this: http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/08/13/jims-mailbox-1009/

And this is alarming. You should definitely take the time to read and watch: http://deadlyclear.wordpress.com/2012/08/12/bank-of-america-drills-open-customer-safe-deposit-box-and-removes-contents/

The war in Syria is getting more dangerous by the day. This next clip comes again from Debka. Say what you want about Debka. Frankly, I don't care. Whatever their sources, they are consistently ahead of the MSM on details within and around Syria and the Middle East. Are they wrong sometimes? Sure. But so are the NYT, CNN and Fox. Lately, much of what debka reports gets confirmed within the MSM within 24-48 hours so I will continue to post links that are relevant. Here's one for today: http://www.debka.com/article/22273/Syrian-rebels-armed-with-first-T-62-tanks

Finally, today was another CoT Tuesday. Though we won't know today's OI numbers until tomorrow, I think it's safe to assume that this Friday will another "friendly" report. Silver OI continues to creep higher while price is capped and suppressed. This is simply a sign of an increasing short position and, one day soon, those shorts will be forced to cover in spectacular fashion. Be right, sit tight and stay patient. We will be victorious.

Have a great evening and overnight.

TF

223 Comments

Marblesonac's picture

First

woohoo

Make the trading accounts managed.  That is Andy does the trading for each account.

TinHat's picture

second silver

Silver, about as close to gold as i'm gonna get.

Istack's picture

Forward Ho!

Let us go on instead and become mature in our understanding.

Physical_only's picture

REPOST

Physical_only's picture

About pay-pal

I have shipped to every country worldwide over many years with payment from pay pal. With no problems ever. 

I'm sure others have had similar results.

FWIW

Mr. Fix's picture

Onward......

It's good to move forward.........

Nana's picture

Thanks Turd

Question please. Do you think this will happen before the middle of September?

ancientmoney's picture

@Turd

"The communist Chinese are pulling out of U.S. exchanges because they're "too corrupt". This seriously cracks me up! The commies think that WE are too corrupt!!"

No honor among thieves . . .

I would be interested in the trading, but I'm primarily a stacker, so would depend on cost and minimum size of bogie.

Bum in the library...'s picture

options

what kind of options?  I only trade stock/ETF options...

Moderator Jane's picture

From Stephanie

MODERATOR

(Those of you who have been around for a while know that Moderator Jane is my alter ego. I am also "Stephanie." We created separate moderation accounts a while back so that personal opinions wouldn't be munged in with moderator proclamations.)

While "Moderator Jane" will still be busy at work for the rest of the month helping with the transition and getting new moderators in place, she will be mostly retiring her hat coming September. She may still pop around once in a while here and there, so don't go jumping for joy just yet. ;-)

As some of you might have noticed from the last post, I've gotten a bit burnt out on the community management stuff, and I'm looking forward to focusing on other things. The timing on this is really good. I got back from my vacation and really felt like I needed to move forward and do different things. I've been dealing with this site for over a year now and it's time to focus on bigger projects and helping TFMR grow.

Most of our moderators go through periods of burn out because the job is hard and thankless. I just want to thank the volunteer moderators, past and future, and also remind the community to try to be kind to the moderators and show your appreciation.

For those of you who felt I had bad intentions - my intentions were always to be fair and objective towards user disputes as much as possible. This can actually be a hard position to take, as sometimes you have to stand up for the unpopular person. And that can make you unpopular yourself. But I hope that overall our efforts have made TFMR into a great community. It has its ups and downs, and periods of turmoil. But overall, it's a great community and I'm glad to have been a part of it.

Once it's September I can sit back and enjoy the site more, and let other people deal with the drama. WOO HOO!! 

:-)

Missiondweller's picture

Ugghhhh! Its driving me nuts!

Turd, I'm sure you have damn good reasons as to why you are not sharing what makes you "100% confident" about the up move in metals but its driving me crazy not knowing!!!!

Thanks for all you do!

dgstage's picture

Managed Trading Account

I would love for Turd and Andy to that. Wha t do you think the minimum investment will be?

gs478's picture

Options Interest

Turd/Andy,

Count me in on the options idea.

Thanks Turd, et al, for everything.

race on

dgstage's picture

Turd

I would like to give you some money to invest in grains as well

heyJoe's picture

Interested in Options Advisory Service

Turd, I already implemented some of your ideas.  Now I have to pay for them?  Your killing me here! wink

recaptureamerica's picture

Fake mint boxes and more... Must read..

mendolover's picture

Syria

Hello Turd!  Hope all is well in Turdland! 

As far as I'm concerned the more alt the source the more reliable.  Fox and CNN?  PALLEASSEE!  Go to http//www.presstv.ir/  for your Syria news.  Yes that is '.ir' as in Iran. 

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/08/14/256225/turkey-stages-war-game-near-syria-border/

Also in the interest of keeping all of us here on the staight and narrow - http://ivarfjeld.wordpress.com/2011/01/11/debkafile-is-a-complete-fraud/

When is Jim Willie coming back?

PEACE!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Commodity futures options

MODERATOR

so you would likely need an account at IB or with JimC or someplace else.

Response to: options
Money By Trading's picture

GDX trade update--letting our stops work

http://wp.me/p2CT0a-36

So far, the market hasn't forced us out of this trade.

Turd Ferguson's picture

But not just my ideas.

MODERATOR

But not just my ideas. Andy's, too!

Turd Ferguson's picture

You can't "give"me money to

MODERATOR

You can't "give"me money to manage. I'm not Series 3 licensed and I'm not a broker.

This service would simply provide access to Andy's and my trades in real time. You decide from there whether or not you wish to follow along in your own account.

Like the service, I would strongly discourage inexperienced traders from attempting to join the fun. Whatever anyone decided, you would be trading your own money through your own broker. The good thing about options is that we would be talking about longer-held positions, not day trading per se. Therefore, you wouldn't necessarily have to sit in front of your computer all day hoping to capitalize.

Response to: Turd
Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Silver holding up well

While 15$ was knocked off gold since 4am, silver is down just 7cents...  Shorts are being covered, me thinks!

I Run Bartertown's picture

Stephanie

Congratulations! It sounds like a perfect time for you for the change up.

Sucks for me though angry. I know well the outcomes of 'reasoned and tolerant' COMMUNity modding. I'll copy any emails or links I might need (TFMR BugOutBag File) now before the Council is in place. I will miss your tender jackboot of authority. yes, but I will remain Unreconstructed. devil

heyJoe's picture

Looking Forward to the Details

Already have an account set up with Jim C.

The Green Manalishi's picture

Options

I'd be interested

Istack's picture

hot, explosive and historic

i don't recall you mentioning "Hot" before.  Now that's a game changer!!

i look forward to even more impressive and exciting adjetives to come!

i'm getting kinda antsy

RaRaRasputin's picture

Turd

Your big heart matches your big ole' yellow hat.  I applaud you for the last post and allowing free flowing comments and for following it up with this one.  Constructive, positive and ever willing to learn and adapt.

I salute you Turdmeister :)

RaRa

GoldMania3000's picture

so?

is it like buying spreads. silver 35-36$ December 2013? i have those. im still hoping they hit one day

Grigeo's picture

Moderator Jane

What IRB said.  I'm already missing Mod Jane.

crying

Hawk's picture

Options Trading How would this all work////

Absolutely no chance this will be managed by Andy/Turd directly. 

1) Regulation they would be totally exposed to anyone and everyone and everyone to them, far too much hassle for too little gain (as far as I'm aware neither are regulated by any financial body in the USA or Europe to manage funds)Just seen Turds comment above, when I started this it was a relavant point. 

2) As for size of trading in general I imagine Turd is talking about CMX gold and silver options and full grain options and therefore prices will vary greatly depending on the variables that determine option prices: Strike/Time/Volatility etc. the sizes for each of these contracts are large 5000 ounces for silver and 100 ounces for gold.

For example a silver option would be priced thus:

5000 * 0.42.8 cents is therefore $2140 ( that's the closing price today of a $32 strike December 2012 call option *expires end of November*) This option has a delta of 0.24 meaning that for everyone 1 cent tick up in the price of silver this option will appreciate roughly by 1/4 that amount, the delta will increase as we get closer to the actual strike price ($32) and the time value will decrease as we get closer to the expiration date, volatility is determined by the speed of the movement in the futures market and by the premium of market news events that are expected to be volatile like NFP/FOMC.

I'm not going to get into options 101 im just trying to give an idea to a few people here of how this would work in terms of size and the difficulties this idea faces. Id estimate that using reasonable risk reward parameters and only risking 3% of the account on any one position combined with trading in lots of three's so you can exit at different profit targets you would need an account of $200,000. Of course if you were to trade cheaper options it becomes more of a punt as you require a more unlikely move to make money, and if you trade smaller sizes minis and such forth you need a market maker to make a market for you and as such your going to get scalped, possible options on miners and etfs are a better way to do this as you can trade much smaller size (100 shares per option) therefore you could buy an AGQ (pro shares silver, at the money Dec call option for around  $500 for 100).

This is a subject I know a fair bit about and could probably devise a formula that would work, based on pure guess work as to the size of account people would be interested in trading i'm guessing most will be in the $5000-$25,000 range,(basis for this guess is from peoples comments I have read  over last few months)   smaller really isn't possible and larger will most likely know what they are doing already thus i think the service would need to be aimed at this market rather than a larger market. 

I could go into more ideas and talk about spreads and such forth as ways of reducing initial outlay and remain bullish but i'd be here all day typing,

Either way i'm really rather curious  in how many people would consider it and the size they would be trading in? 

If you respond below I would be grateful if you would also message me as i may not see it. 

HAWK

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