Friday Fun

Friday, August 10, 2012 at 10:30 am

So much to do and so little time. Let's get started.

Thank you for the day off yesterday. It was very productive and helpful. However, the world doesn't seem to stop just because I want it to...so...there are a number of things that have piled up while I was away.

First of all, the USDA crop estimate that I was anxiously awaiting finally came out this morning. It was pretty much what most expected. Bad...but not horrific. Yet. By late yesterday, I had come to expect a quick pop at the news and then some profit-taking. That's pretty much what has happened. From late Wednesday through the close yesterday, corn had already risen by 40c and soybeans bounced 80c. This indicated that we were onto a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of event and that's exactly what has happened. From here, let's see if we can get a little pullback and subsequent erosion of option premium. Nothing can save the corn crop at this point so yields will likely continue to be marked down. Nine dollar plus corn is still likely as we head toward harvest.

Crude ran out of gas today and you can see it on the chart. I'm not too worried, though. The 16-day global festival of peace, love and utopia is about to end in London so next week should bring a renewed focus on all the strife and chaos in the Middle East. The next move, through this week's highs of $94+, should carry crude toward $98.

Lots of talk about Uncle Ted's latest piece. Since it has now been widely distributed, I thought I'd c&p the two paragraphs that I personally found the most interesting:

"More importantly, were the agency to charge JPMorgan with manipulation of the silver price (as it should) that could set off a series of events that could easily grow out of control. One thing that makes the silver manipulation so potentially profound is that the core allegation is of a crime in progress. The CFTC has never busted up a manipulation that was in force; like most government agencies, it only reacts after the fact. Don’t take that solely as a complaint, but more as an observation that governments are more reactive than proactive. Because the silver manipulation is very much in force, were it to be terminated by CFTC actions against JPMorgan and/or others, it would be a “live” event for the first time. History shows that all manipulations end violently. In the case of silver, since it has been depressed in price by a downward manipulation, its termination would necessarily cause prices to explode higher. Any charge brought by the CFTC would send a clear signal to the world that silver had been depressed in price and was undervalued and, therefore, should be purchased. This would cause a flood of buying and discourage new selling, causing the price to truly explode, most likely in disorderly market conditions. Do you find it likely that the CFTC would wish to cause that disorderly pricing that could lead to further unsettled conditions in other markets?

If JPMorgan (and perhaps the CME Group) were found to be the main culprits in the silver manipulation and the CFTC brought charges against them, the repercussions to JPM and the CME could be a threat to them as going concerns. It was never a case that JPMorgan couldn’t financially afford to buy back its concentrated silver short position; it was always a case that should JPM ever move to buy back aggressively to the upside that would prove conclusively that it had been manipulating the price of silver all along. That would set JPMorgan (and the CME) up for a legal holocaust, both civil and criminal. There has been talk of a civil litigation nightmare for those banks deemed guilty in the developing Libor manipulation; but determining damages will be difficult because the Libor rates were allegedly manipulated both up and down, making the damages unclear and hard to prove. Were there to be findings of a downward manipulation in silver, those damaged, from investors to producing companies and countries could easily demonstrate the damage. Back in the Hunt Bros silver manipulation of 1980, one of the successful litigants was Minpeco, the government producer organization from Peru, who I remember collected more than $100 million. That would be chicken feed compared to the consequences of the much longer downward silver manipulation of today by JPMorgan. And this says nothing of potential criminal liability."

High hopes, indeed.

And here are a couple of updated charts for you. I posted similar charts into yesterday's comments section when I saw the clear and determined effort to keep gold under $1620. I suspect that there are an enormous amount of buy-stops above 1620 and 1625 that must be protected. A move that trips those stops would cause a surge in price that would likely break gold through 1635-1640 and present a clear technical buy signal to the momentum-chasing algos. To keep this from happening, 1620 is being defended. That said, The Cartels are fighting a losing battle here. Demand for physical metal continues to be extraordinarily strong in London, particularly in euro. Trader Dan wrote an excellent piece about this yesterday ( http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/08/euro-gold-hinting-at-upside-breakout.html). Soon, gold will break through 1620 and silver will break through 28.20. It is simply a question of when. Today? Monday? Soon. Very soon.

I've got two other posts that I have to create this morning and a podcast for TTM, too. Again, lots to do and little time to do it in so I'd better wrap this up. Please keep checking back as I will be adding content through the day.

Have a great day and a great weekend!

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Comments

Interesting and exciting

Submitted by Mickey on August 10, 2012 - 2:00pm.

things in PM are always interesting-and depending on perspective exciting.

How about a new upleg?

which

Submitted by Mickey on August 10, 2012 - 2:02pm.

I know the new upleg will start soon.

I just cannot wait to establish a trading position and hold on to it for several up days! Maybe even a week or two!

JPM describes a $50 billion trading loss turning into a $200 bil

Submitted by Nana on August 10, 2012 - 2:04pm.

'JPM's $150 Billion FDIC Reality Adjustment' - Jamie Dimon Just Admitted To The World That JPM's Assets Are Overvalued By $150 Billion

Go to page 9. Under the wipeout scenario JPM describes a $50 billion trading loss turning into a $200 billion loss as soon as the FDIC takes over. Why... ? Because JPM says they would expect the FDIC to immediately writedown JPM's assets by an additional $150 billion.

It gets better. Go to page 10. The chart shows that they only have $184 billion in equity, minus the $50 billion loss, minus 'the $150 billion fdic reality adjustment', which leaves them in a negative equity position of (-$16 billion).

So, we can extrapolate that without this phantom loss of $50 billion, JPM's real equity position is just $34 billion currently, not the $184 billion on their books.

http://dailybail.com/home/jpms-150-billion-fdic-reality-adjustment-jamie...

The U.S. Treasury's $2.4 Trillion Secret

Submitted by Nana on August 10, 2012 - 2:10pm.

The U.S. Treasury's $2.4 Trillion Secret

http://dailybail.com/home/the-us-treasurys-24-trillion-secret.html

False Flags

Submitted by Nana on August 10, 2012 - 2:22pm.

Possible False Flag Obama Assassination Attempt Upcoming?

Florida Constitution Party
August 10, 2012

First before the article by Joe Angione, a brief commentary.

Personally, I believe there is potential for something to happen the last quarter of this year. Financial turmoil or another false flag event that could lead to civil unrest.

The reason to post this is to unite ALL Americans, not just one side vs the other.

False flag events are real and have been a part of history. Whether this rumor is real or not is not the sole point. My point is that Americans must research history and facts to realize that false flag events have occurred and usually garner more power for those in control.

Now is the time for all Americans to band together against the financial influences that are running our puppets in Washington and the mass media that keeps us distracted to that and their treasonous actions. All Americans must study and get a foundation in history in order for Americans to truly unite together – not stuck in two parties designed to keep the citizenry divided. Our nation will be restored when we begin to vote for the best of 3, 4 or 5 choices rather than the perpetual “better of two evils” that takes us down the same road.

Study History

Here is the rumor below. Based on a number of factors, I think it or another false flag has potential. Divide and Conquer.

Below, there is a link to one of the other more recent false flag events. Study it.

In order to truly understand false flag events, you must study history and the financial powers now influencing our government.

The below article is posted as a “rumor” but anyone studied in history and false flag events would be aware of the future possibilities of them.

For those of you licking your chops in condemnation of this post without any investigation, I suggest you study the video above on false flags, the “history” link and “Sept 11″ link before you come to any conclusions.

http://theintelhub.com/2012/08/10/possible-false-flag-obama-assassinatio...

@Short stack

Submitted by Bohemian on August 10, 2012 - 2:24pm.

"COMPLETE ABSURDITY IN GREECE: ECB PRINTS EUROS TO GIVE TO GREECE TO MAKE INTEREST PAYMENTS TO ECB."

Well, that's not anything new. We know that for several months already. That's why there is this Troika in Greece (ECB, IMF and German "officers", auditors, accountants, controllers, looking for anything they can get, sell, privatize in Greece). All those Euros, bail-out packages, goes to Troika, and from them back to foreign banks and ECB, paying the interests. Greece is NOT a sovereign nation anymore. It's a protectorate. LOL

Also --

Greece Prints Euros To Stay Afloat, The ECB Approves, The Bundesbank Nods, No One Wants To Get Blamed For Kicking Greece Out

Posted on August 9, 2012 by Wolf Richter| 20 Comments

A lot of politicians in Germany, but also in other countries, issue zingers about a Greek exit from the Eurozone and the end of their patience. Yet those with decision-making power play for time. They want someone else to do the job. Suddenly Greece is out of money again. It would default on everything, from bonds held by central banks to internal obligations. On August 20. The day a €3.2 billion bond would mature. Europe would be on vacation. It would be mayhem. And somebody would get blamed. But there’s a convenient solution, though it violates European treaties: Greece is now printing its own euros.

-----

Soooo, if you keep Euros, make sure there is NOT the code Y (Greece), but -- for example -- X (Germany). There is the risk, that one day these Greek Euros could be less valuable than German Euros (before they come up with new Drachmas). Also, banks might not accept Euros with Greek Y code. Read about these codes here --

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_banknotes

H.R. 6357

Submitted by Nana on August 10, 2012 - 2:34pm.

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr6357

H.R. 6357: To prohibit the extrajudicial killing of United States citizens, and for other purposes.

112th Congress, 2011–2012

Sponsor:

Rep. Dennis Kucinich [D-OH10]

Status:

Referred to Committee

This bill was assigned to a congressional committee on August 3, 2012, which will consider it before possibly sending it on to the House or Senate as a whole.

Prognosis:

This bill has a 0% chance of being enacted. The following factors were considered:

This bill was a re-introduction of H.R. 6010 (111th) from the previous session of Congress. (-3%)

The sponsor is a member of the minority party. (-2%)

Just 4% of all House bills in 2009–2010 were enacted.

Soon, the game will be ending

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 10, 2012 - 2:38pm.

MODERATOR

Soon, the game will be ending and the fireworks show will begin immediately following.

Response to: Pleeeeeeezzzzeee, Tuuuuurrrrrd?

The game ending...

Submitted by Larry on August 10, 2012 - 2:43pm.

May be something to do with the info Nana just posted/linked above. One of those events, or both... or a similar big fat hairy black swan (BFHBS) that is circling as we speak.

please not just yet!!!

Submitted by achmachat on August 10, 2012 - 2:52pm.

Dear Turd,
do we have until thursday before the big fireworks?
If not I'll be REALLY bummed out.
I've been waiting for almost two years for a very specific major cash inflow which would immediately be turned into silver.
The day has finally arrived... this thursday.
It would be very depressing to have been just a day too late after two years of waiting.
:-(

Cash in on Thursday

Submitted by Mickey on August 10, 2012 - 2:55pm.

LOL--I sell life insurance and every once in a while I sell a huge policy -resulting in huge commissions. I have put those to work as soon as the wire transfer hits my account--a basic form of dollar averaging.

HFT and miners

Submitted by Mickey on August 10, 2012 - 2:58pm.

just thinking about how much HFT has made playing the miners and GDX back and forth. Even SLW trades up and down with considerable interday volatility.

Throw that and cartel into mix and we have a rather strange market condition-get rid of cartel get rid of HFT and we could have a pretty decent free market (even with Fed).

the issue for us is how to differentiate between HFT caused interday volatility and a potential flash crash.

Thirst- Water Tax

Submitted by Nana on August 10, 2012 - 3:00pm.

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr6249/text

H.R. 6249: Water Protection and Reinvestment Act of 2012

‘Subchapter E--Taxes Relating to Water

‘Sec. 4171. Imposition of tax.

‘Sec. 4172. Definitions and special rule.

‘SEC. 4171. IMPOSITION OF TAX.

‘(a) Water-Based Beverage- There is hereby imposed on the sale of any container of water-based beverage by the manufacturer, producer, or importer thereof a tax equal to 3 cents per container of such beverage which is 5 gallons or less. For purposes of the preceding sentence, the manufacturer or producer is the entity that puts the beverage into the container subject to the tax under such sentence.

‘SEC. 4172. DEFINITIONS AND SPECIAL RULE.

‘(a) Water-Based Beverage- For purposes of this subchapter--

‘(1) WATER-BASED BEVERAGE- The term ‘water-based beverage’ means any beverage which is--

‘(A) water, or

‘(B) created by mixing water with other liquids, flavorings, vitamins, or other ingredients where the resulting product is at least 50 percent water by weight.

To achmachat...

Submitted by Colonel Angus on August 10, 2012 - 3:10pm.

...put it on credit card and then pay it off after your 25 day grace period. At least do it with half of what you expect to be spending on the PMs. Then you can dollar-cost (euro-cost for you?) average in if Turd's big event has negative repercussions for the shiny stuff.

I'm just a couple thousand FRNs from being all in on silver and gold, so I'm hoping it is a positive thing to which Turd is referring.

http://www.govtrack.us/congre

Submitted by Nana on August 10, 2012 - 3:12pm.

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr1905/text

H.R. 1905: Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Human Rights Act of 2012

SEC. 2. DEFINITIONS.

Except as otherwise specifically provided, in this Act:

(1) APPROPRIATE CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEES- The term ‘appropriate congressional committees’ has the meaning given that term in section 14 of the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-172; 50 U.S.C. 1701 note).

(2) FINANCIAL TRANSACTION- The term ‘financial transaction’ means any transfer of value involving a financial institution, including the transfer of forwards, futures, options, swaps, or precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.

(3) KNOWINGLY- The term ‘knowingly’ has the meaning given that term in section 14 of the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-172; 50 U.S.C. 1701 note).

(4) UNITED STATES PERSON- The term ‘United States person’ has the meaning given that term in section 101 of the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010 (22 U.S.C. 8511).

-----------

(2) FINANCIAL TRANSACTION- The term ‘financial transaction’ means any transfer of value involving a financial institution, including the transfer of forwards, futures, options, swaps, or precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.

@Nana

Submitted by Roark on August 10, 2012 - 3:12pm.

NOOOOO!!! (Please tell me that beer isnt a "water-based beverage"!)

Final Countdown re Turd revealing secrets

Submitted by StevenBHorse on August 10, 2012 - 3:18pm.

It's like you are a petulant child in the back seat of the car on a road trip. We'll get there when we get there.

The golden jackass has already told you what will be coming.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1343937720.php

Internal word from the Monaco source who spoke with Murphy indicates that a repeat of August 2010 is soon to occur. JPMorgan is out of time, and their illegal devices will be halted. The event for release of the Gold & Silver prices could occur again in August. The actual enforcement is not clear. But be assured that forces pitted against evil are involved. The JPMorgan machinery might be stalled in ways unclear even to those informed within the gold community. Confirmation of the Murphy source has come from a highly reliable Jackass source. An exciting move is coming for the precious metals markets. Any delay to the revelations of criminal action in the gold market by JPMorgan will be a result of threats and intimidation by the big bank against the whistle blowers. My main hope is that as the price rises, the exposure of corrupt controls is also made more available for public view. The people must see what has occurred to both the gold market and the currency market. The potential energy is growing to incredible levels, as a corrupt lid has been placed on the true money of the world for seveal millenia, gold. The conflict and pressure will grow until the pressure spills over.

Now, sit back, relax, STFU and let Europe take you there.

If something doesn't happen, don't get all freaked out. It means that the forces of darkness have bought themselves another stay of execution, putting off their own reckoning for a short period of time. It will happen in due time, when the forces of good decide it will be most beneficial to their own causes, and most detrimental to those who wish to enslave the planet in their megalomaniac wet dream of a one world government.

Furthermore, if you are trading for this "event" you are a moron. You should have been positioning for this all along, as this is but a pitstop on the road to the end of the great Keynesian experiment.

Neigh

@ Roark

Submitted by Nana on August 10, 2012 - 3:33pm.

Beer is safe.

‘(2) EXCEPTIONS- The term ‘water-based beverage’ does not include--

‘(A) any pharmaceutical product,

‘(B) any alcoholic beverage, and

‘(C) any product where--

‘(i) at least 75 percent of the water that naturally existed in the product is removed,

‘(ii) the resulting concentrated product is shipped and then the water replaced, and

‘(iii) the beverage is then packaged for sale.

@ SteveB

Submitted by murphy on August 10, 2012 - 3:41pm.

Jim Willie is wrong on that one. I NEVER spoke to the Monaco source.

Internal word from the Monaco source who spoke with Murphy indicates that a repeat of August 2010 is soon to occur

@ turd

Submitted by agrock on August 10, 2012 - 3:42pm.

any hints at all turd please please please ... i'm with dr. j need to have a little preview of the fireworks.... been a very long 15 months since silver was rolling crazy

tell us what's going to cause the game to end?

any of the following below?

a) comex finally implodes under pressure

b) jpm decides to play fair and let silver rise naturally in a free market environment

c) qe3 is unleashed

what?

tell us please.

CoT

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 10, 2012 - 3:44pm.

MODERATOR

As expected, the gold CoT worked off about half of the 19,000 net short addition of the previous period. The large spec sheep also decreased net long by over 10,000. All in all, very nice.

In silver, it looks like JPM added another 1000+ shorts. Good luck with that, snookums.

Where's the Gold, part 2

Submitted by Byzantium on August 10, 2012 - 3:46pm.

Updated from my post on the last thread, with what I could glean from Wiki.

The Vatican is a wild card, as are royal families and the wealthy in the middle east; I bet they have stacks!

how the frick

Submitted by GoldMania3000 on August 10, 2012 - 4:11pm.

how the Frick can we rely on a TURD and Jackass for reliable information. They are both so full of shit related. If we were talking about a prick and a dick then maybe i could buy the sources.

Angus!

Submitted by achmachat on August 10, 2012 - 4:15pm.

:-) Over here, we don't have that kind of super dangerous traps you guys call "credit cards". Our credit cards take the balance off our bank account at the end of the month. And negative balance is a big nono! Not allowed. And with my monthly limit being 2500 EUR on that card, I'd need at least 100 of them!

Gold Above Ground

Submitted by Nick Elway on August 10, 2012 - 4:22pm.

Byzantium,

I started a forum for gold above ground

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4090/gold-above-ground

My collection of "gold above ground" information is there, perhaps you'll find it interesting. Add whatever you find..

The numbers range from 120K tonnes through the commonly accepted 170K tonnes up to Fulford's "Secret Asian" for 2000K Tonnes of World Gold Above Ground.

Enjoy,

Nick

ahhhhhhh......

Submitted by thesandbox on August 10, 2012 - 4:32pm.

he called her "snookums"

snookums

Submitted by agauinvest on August 10, 2012 - 4:35pm.

That was kinda creepy.

@Nick Elway

Submitted by Byzantium on August 10, 2012 - 4:44pm.

Hey Nick, that is fantastic!

This will likely be a holy grail, and a long journey with U turns and dead ends, but anything we can glean from the chase will be enlightening.

I'll start adding what I know / what I can glean in the very near future, and hopefully others will be inspired to add what they might have gleaned too.

Cheers & good weekend,

Byz.

@ achmachat - Liquidity Squeeze

Submitted by Lamenting_Laver... on August 10, 2012 - 4:48pm.

I feel your pain, brother! And that is quite a tidy sum you are looking for.

Very recently, I was forced to make a temporary transfer into the banking system abroad. I felt that the possibility of an upcoming metals boom meant that I really didn't want to liquidate some of my currently semi under-water shinies after having been patient so long.

So I allied myself - again temporarily - with my bank, that I know well, and they actually agreed, much against normal policy, to give me a planned overdraft in the neighborhood of 40.000 EURs without formalized collateral. If you are a good name in your bank, you may be able to do something similar. When it is for such a short period of time, and you can document you already have a similar amount elsewhere, the interest charge is negligible.

About the upcoming boom - I hope that it will not wreck the possibility for cross border wire transfers, before I have returned the amount - hence I am a bit mixed in emotions too.

Change in Turdville Weather Coming ?!

Submitted by ReachWest on August 10, 2012 - 5:01pm.

I don't know what Turd knows .. but he sure is confident that the game is about to change - and - soon.

Over at TTM - Turd mentioned the same "Game is Over" and fireworks in his latest podcast (in line with his comment above). Turd also seems pretty confident that the timing of "whatever this is" will take place next week or the week after.

Hmm. Time for an icy cold beer.