Friday Fun

So much to do and so little time. Let's get started.

Thank you for the day off yesterday. It was very productive and helpful. However, the world doesn't seem to stop just because I want it to...so...there are a number of things that have piled up while I was away.

First of all, the USDA crop estimate that I was anxiously awaiting finally came out this morning. It was pretty much what most expected. Bad...but not horrific. Yet. By late yesterday, I had come to expect a quick pop at the news and then some profit-taking. That's pretty much what has happened. From late Wednesday through the close yesterday, corn had already risen by 40c and soybeans bounced 80c. This indicated that we were onto a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of event and that's exactly what has happened. From here, let's see if we can get a little pullback and subsequent erosion of option premium. Nothing can save the corn crop at this point so yields will likely continue to be marked down. Nine dollar plus corn is still likely as we head toward harvest.

Crude ran out of gas today and you can see it on the chart. I'm not too worried, though. The 16-day global festival of peace, love and utopia is about to end in London so next week should bring a renewed focus on all the strife and chaos in the Middle East. The next move, through this week's highs of $94+, should carry crude toward $98.

Lots of talk about Uncle Ted's latest piece. Since it has now been widely distributed, I thought I'd c&p the two paragraphs that I personally found the most interesting:

"More importantly, were the agency to charge JPMorgan with manipulation of the silver price (as it should) that could set off a series of events that could easily grow out of control. One thing that makes the silver manipulation so potentially profound is that the core allegation is of a crime in progress. The CFTC has never busted up a manipulation that was in force; like most government agencies, it only reacts after the fact. Don’t take that solely as a complaint, but more as an observation that governments are more reactive than proactive. Because the silver manipulation is very much in force, were it to be terminated by CFTC actions against JPMorgan and/or others, it would be a “live” event for the first time. History shows that all manipulations end violently. In the case of silver, since it has been depressed in price by a downward manipulation, its termination would necessarily cause prices to explode higher. Any charge brought by the CFTC would send a clear signal to the world that silver had been depressed in price and was undervalued and, therefore, should be purchased. This would cause a flood of buying and discourage new selling, causing the price to truly explode, most likely in disorderly market conditions. Do you find it likely that the CFTC would wish to cause that disorderly pricing that could lead to further unsettled conditions in other markets?
 
If JPMorgan (and perhaps the CME Group) were found to be the main culprits in the silver manipulation and the CFTC brought charges against them, the repercussions to JPM and the CME could be a threat to them as going concerns. It was never a case that JPMorgan couldn’t financially afford to buy back its concentrated silver short position; it was always a case that should JPM ever move to buy back aggressively to the upside that would prove conclusively that it had been manipulating the price of silver all along. That would set JPMorgan (and the CME) up for a legal holocaust, both civil and criminal. There has been talk of a civil litigation nightmare for those banks deemed guilty in the developing Libor manipulation; but determining damages will be difficult because the Libor rates were allegedly manipulated both up and down, making the damages unclear and hard to prove. Were there to be findings of a downward manipulation in silver, those damaged, from investors to producing companies and countries could easily demonstrate the damage. Back in the Hunt Bros silver manipulation of 1980, one of the successful litigants was Minpeco, the government producer organization from Peru, who I remember collected more than $100 million. That would be chicken feed compared to the consequences of the much longer downward silver manipulation of today by JPMorgan. And this says nothing of potential criminal liability."

High hopes, indeed.

And here are a couple of updated charts for you. I posted similar charts into yesterday's comments section when I saw the clear and determined effort to keep gold under $1620. I suspect that there are an enormous amount of buy-stops above 1620 and 1625 that must be protected. A move that trips those stops would cause a surge in price that would likely break gold through 1635-1640 and present a clear technical buy signal to the momentum-chasing algos. To keep this from happening, 1620 is being defended. That said, The Cartels are fighting a losing battle here. Demand for physical metal continues to be extraordinarily strong in London, particularly in euro. Trader Dan wrote an excellent piece about this yesterday ( http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/08/euro-gold-hinting-at-upside-breakout.html). Soon, gold will break through 1620 and silver will break through 28.20. It is simply a question of when. Today? Monday? Soon. Very soon.

I've got two other posts that I have to create this morning and a podcast for TTM, too. Again, lots to do and little time to do it in so I'd better wrap this up. Please keep checking back as I will be adding content through the day.

Have a great day and a great weekend!

TF

127 Comments

proformatrillionaire's picture

First

?????

I need to order two sleeves of ASEs now. Just wish I could secure a yellow hat.

jaw777's picture

First?

Maybe?

Damn!  So close.

Here's to raising our glasses today to the breakout!  Let's see PMs run through resistance and trigger the buys for a glorious Friday FUBM!

Barth Vader's picture

eur-au

Have many euros have just been used to buy gold?

gold surges while EURUSD [edit]rises[/edit], my stack's net worth is now lower than before the surge.

[edit]gold is playin catch-up to the eurusd[/edit]

Bollocks's picture

THURD!!!

Oh yes!

Bollocks's picture

Awww bollocks...

arse.

And yes, I am a child.

Odin's picture

SIlver hits 28.20

Silver just hit the 28.20 ceiling like a bullet train... and here we go again... CHARGE!!!!

henry's picture

HI-YO SILVER

$28.25...   White Hat and Crow ?

wildstylechef's picture

Already!!!

Gold is through 1625 spot and silver is 28.20!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mr. Fix's picture

Up Up And Away!

1630 & 28.33!

to the moon!

fats's picture

anticipation

Watching the swing from 27.75 to 28.25 this morning has been fun, and now I'm on the edge of my seat waiting for the buy stops.  

Istack's picture

Break on through

Puck T. Smith's picture

My impression of the PMs

babaganoush2307's picture

Great Quotes

"There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt." John Adams

"When a business or an individual spends more than it makes, it goes bankrupt. When government does it, it sends you the bill. And when government does it for 40 years, the bill comes in two ways: higher taxes and inflation. Make no mistake about it, inflation is a tax and not by accident." Ronald Reagan

Keep stackin'

Nana's picture

Sick and Tired

Metals go up, metals go down, metals go up, metals go down.

And tired always follows sick.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Nana / TF

Nana - Haha.

I remember a family gathering at that time when someone put that Bill Cosby routine on. It's the only thing I can remember that had everyone, from the small kids to the grandparents, laughing the whole time. Something for everybody in that.

Thanks for the update TF! Seems I'm seeing more people jump onboard with the explosive summer idea!

realitybiter's picture

FT article, CFTC "nothing to see here"

Of course, the 70's-porn star-mustachioed, weak-chinned leader of the dept of what justice won't do anything to any financial criminal.

This weeks FT headlines was the starting bell.  At the ringing of the bell the agreement was struck.  You F-tards won't go to jail.  But you have got to stop.  Even freaks named "Turd" are on to you.  I can't stop them.  You are called out.  Don't embarrass me anymore than I already do.

tobydaniel's picture

Beautiful cap at 28.20!

Amazing precision at 28.20. I wonder where all of those buy stops went at 28.20? Next stop either 28.35 or 28 even. What an easy trading range to make some fiat!

Short Stack's picture

Since someone has broached the subject.

Why is it that people (sheeple) are so willing to accept the notion that our elected officials can borrow money, create a huge debt, and we the people and our descendants are expected to pay it all back with interest ?

Did anyone reading this post borrow the money ?  No.   Did anyone here order their Senators and Representatives to borrow the money ?  No.

Well, if we did not borrow the money and we did not receive the money, then why should we be required to pay back the money we did not borrow and did not receive ?

If your next door neighbor takes out a home loan why should he expect you to pay it back ?

Therefore, if anyone should pay back this nations debts it should be those who created the debt (the politicians).   Every member of Congress who put his or her YES vote on additional spending above and beyond what is received by the tax payers, etc. should have said debt taken out of their respective Estates.

And if any debt remains, as we know there will be, make them work at hard labor until it is all paid back, or they are worked to death like a slave.  Like the slaves on a slave galley.

Like the slaves they have tried to make us into.

(Oh, stay on subject, right.   Metals, metals, metals.  Uh,  go gold, go silver.  Down with manipulation.)

babaganoush2307's picture

Note:

Since Platinum is a luxury item and has no history of money, it goes up in price during good economic times then plummets during bad times.  Everyone may want to consider picking up some platinum after the SHTF for dirt cheap and hold it till we have some recovery, has potential to make a pretty penny yes

pt1825nys.gif

Fired's picture

Movin' on up

In keeping with the Friday feel...

RIP Sherman.

TD's picture

"We Buy Gold"

Well it's official, I can't go anywhere now without being confronted by someone wanting my gold. The latest to join the ranks is my local gas station. Can you believe it? The local shopping mall, that is slowly adding vacancy signs to their store fronts, recently added a "Gold Connection" store. I went in to see what I could buy, after being suspiciously greeted by a very large, uniformed,  well armed, security guard,  I was eyed with great concern due to this unusual act of someone walking in wanting to buy something.

I tried to do a search on google to find out how many places are buying gold nowadays, but no luck. Have any of you guys seen any figures on this phenomenon? I didn't think I'd ever seen something more commonplace than a Starbucks, but there are multiple of these outlets in comparison. This is getting out of hand.

I'm not certain which feeling is the strongest in me... admiration for the entrepreneurial abilities of these folks... hatred that these guys are stealing the true wealth of the sheeple... or pride in knowing that one always gets ahead buy moving in the opposite direction of the herd.  If the general population is selling something with abandonment, I want to be buying.

Loud Noises's picture

All in

As of last night, I took my seat for the explosive summer and fall.  I have some new shiny coming my way that will be my last purchase of the year, other than an ounce or two of Ag here and there at the LCS.  Now, I'm not going to hold Turd or anyone else responsible for my decision if it turns out to be a poor choice.  But I do feel confident enough that I thought now would be the best time to take care of my business and then just sit back and watch the fireworks til 2013.

If I'm wrong, well I'm not selling anyway... not until I see some fiscal sanity poking around the corner.  Last I checked, fiscal sanity was still shipwrecked on an isolated South Pacific island with no hope of rescue. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

"Even freaks named "Turd" are on to you."

MODERATOR

Yes I am.

I Run Bartertown's picture

TD

I agree that all the cash4gold places are encouraging from a stackers point of view. 

The flip side, though, is that on every commercial break on the news I see one or more ads telling me to buy gold/silver. Ironically, it's the only thing that gives me pause.

SilverFocker's picture

Greed is good

If Gordon were to give that speech today, he would add.

Not only that greed is good, but even better when corruption and manipulation are no longer considered a crime, and.........oh yea, Fox is a Troll!

beardeus's picture

Sometimes I am amazed by the

Sometimes I am amazed by the wealth of others. Jealousy? Perhaps but I don't think so.

My wife's sister, who is relatively young, married a man with a high paying job. He makes easily 100k plus. She works too. This may not be much for some of you but is for myself being in my twenties. She being quite good at practicing the art of Judaism,  no offense intended, saved within a relatively short amount of time more than a hundred thousand dollars.  I told them about investing it in physical metals. There was a tad bit of interest but ultimately they invested all of their savings in overpriced real estate, to rent, in the California region. 

What's odd is that the sister works for Bank of America's foreclosure/loan department and agreed with me that real estate is overpriced!? I suppose it may be better than sitting in an account. The sister will not take things well when the SHTF according to my perceived notion of her love for money and or making it.

Oh well. I tried.

On another hilarious note, a customer at work had Colorado plates on his car. I asked how is the weather there. He replied, "it's a rental". He then proceeded to say he was from Chicago. After some small talk I asked how he liked there. He replied that he loved it there. I then asked if it was a safe place and he emphatically said it was. Hmmm... No doubt he was a government employee in my opinion.

Chibster's picture

JPMorgan sucks, banks told to make plans for collapse

Exclusive: U.S. banks told to make plans for preventing collapse

Fri Aug 10, 2012 8:41am EDT
"(Reuters) - U.S. regulators directed five of the country's biggest banks, including Bank of America Corp and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, to develop plans for staving off collapse if they faced serious problems, emphasizing that the banks could not count on government help.

The two-year-old program, which has been largely secret until now, is in addition to the "living wills" the banks crafted to help regulators dismantle them if they actually do fail. It shows how hard regulators are working to ensure that banks have plans for worst-case scenarios and can act rationally in times of distress.

Officials like Lehman Brothers former Chief Executive Dick Fuld have been criticized for having been too hesitant to take bold steps to solve their banks' problems during the financial crisis.

According to documents obtained by Reuters, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency first directed five banks - which also include Citigroup Inc,, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co - to come up with these "recovery plans" in May 2010.

They told banks to consider drastic efforts to prevent failure in times of distress, including selling off businesses, finding other funding sources if regular borrowing markets shut them out, and reducing risk. The plans must be feasible to execute within three to six months, and banks were to "make no assumption of extraordinary support from the public sector," according to the documents.

Spokespeople for the five banks declined to comment. The Federal Reserve also declined to comment.

...
Five years after the financial crisis, concerns remain about whether blow-ups at big banks could lead to another round of taxpayer bailouts. Trading losses have cost JPMorgan nearly $6 billion so far, and scandals such as the alleged rigging of an international interest rate benchmark have only highlighted the risks lurking inside big banks.
...
In a presentation in March, JPMorgan Chase said it had a recovery plan in place and said it was ordered by regulators. The presentation was organized by Harvard Law School and was closed to the media at the time, but is available online. (http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/about/pifs/symposia/europe/baer.pdf)"

source  http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/10/us-banks-recoveryplans-idUSBRE87905N20120810

Quote:

ORDERLY LIQUIDATION OF A FAILED Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFI)

"Regulations, including those issued under the Dodd-Frank Act, mandate that large and systemically important financial
institutions (SIFIs) maintain detailed and robust recovery and resolution plans:
 Recovery plans detail the actions a firm would take to avoid failure by staying well-capitalized and well-funded in
the case of an adverse event
 JPMC has a comprehensive recovery plan
 Resolution plans detail strategies for rapid, orderly and least-cost resolution under ordinary insolvency law in the
event of failure

Treasury Secretary, in consultation with the President, after recommendation by Board of Governors and Designated
Regulator (principally FDIC or SEC), can invoke Orderly Liquidation Authority (OLA) to resolve a SIFI when, among other things:
 The SIFI is in default or in danger of default
 No viable private sector alternative is available to prevent the default
 The SIFI’s failure and its resolution (through traditional bankruptcy) would have serious adverse effects on the
financial stability of the United States"

source  http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/about/pifs/symposia/europe/baer.pdf

Dagney Taggart's picture

OK Work is Done...

Time for Friday Fun!

@baba: Good Reagan quote. Also, I prefer palladium for the industrial benefit. And maybe it's just a rumor but I was reading once about the rise of Putin and the Russians using their palladium to destroy the western bankers who plagued them with debt.

realitybiter's picture

Freak

was meant in a good way, from their perverted position of arrogant incompetence

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