A Weekend Pass
The charts are so compelling that I felt I had to update the site today. I've also got a special promo for you some come on in..
First of all, the charts. I was alerted to this development yesterday by this terrific piece of analysis from KWN. Tom Fitzpatrick of Citigroup is a competent technician and his analysis here is spot-on.(http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/27_KWN_-_Special_Friday_Gold_%26_Silver_Chart_Mania.html) The metals then closed strongly yesterday and we did, in fact, get bullish outside reversals in both gold and silver. Again, this is not a be-all-end-all indicator of a pending bull rush...but...it's certainly another log for the fire. Note, too, that even on the short-term charts, the metals have broken out of their recent pennants and seem to be setting sights on the horizontal, top-of-range resistance levels of $1640 and $29.
Trader Dan has posted some excellent charts, too. When you have a moment, you should check them out. http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/07/gold-chart-and-comments.html
Yesterday's CoT was very, very interesting...at least in gold. The silver CoT was lifeless but at least it maintains a very bullish posture. The gold CoT is where the action was but, even there, it comes with a caveat. The survey was taken so close to August contract expiration that it was undoubtedly affected by it. Some of this will come out in the wash next week but, for now, the gold CoT was very bullish. Below is a C&P of my comments written shortly after the report was published at 3:30 yesterday. If you want to see the report yourself, here's a link: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1343417555.php
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on July 27, 2012 - 3:02pm.
Let's start with silver because it is a non-event, big zero. The Large Specs added 500 net long and The Evil Empire added 300 net short <yawn>. The EE net short ratio remains at an historically low (and extraordinarily bullish) 1.33:1
Gold, on the other hand, was crazy. Now, keep in mind that this report includes a lot of selling and some rolling of the August contract. Therefore, it's a little distorted and some of this distortion will undoubtedly be worked out in next week's report. That said, check this out:
Large Spec gold longs fell by 14,389. That's a lot. The Gold Cartel, though, covered 18,696 short contracts (total at 302,693) and added 3878 new longs (total at 166,448). This is a net change of 22,574. WOW! The new net short ratio for The Gold Cartel is a have-to-be-a-misprint 1.82:1. Again and for perspective, on 8/2/11, three days before The Great Cartel Panic post the S&P downgrade of the U.S., The Gold Cartel was short 442,ooo contracts and long 155,000 for a net short ratio of 2.86:1. This means that since the beginning of The Great Panic, The Gold Cartel has been able to reduce their net short position by 56%!! Simply amazing.
The other item of significance comes from the Small Specs. These are the ultimate outsiders and the consistent victims of Cartel shenanigans. Last week, the Small Specs dumped 1,810 longs (new total 53,970) and added 4,782 new shorts (new total 30,702). Their updated net long ratio is just 1.76:1. Again and for perspective, at the peak of the speculation in early April 2011, the small specs in gold were long 75,706 contracts and short 21,747 for a net long ratio of 3.48:1. This means that, since 4/5/11, the small specs in gold have reduced their net long excitement by over 70%!! Again, simply amazing.
As you know, the CoTs are not the be-all-end-all of fundamental statistics. They are already 72 hours old and nearly obsolete when we receive them. They are useful, however, in helping us get a general "feel" for bullish or bearish potential. With this in mind, this week's report is simply another signal that the next, major move in the metals will be UP...WAY UP...and not down. Take that to the (bullion) bank.
Like the charts, the CoT must be considered as part of the whole of your analysis. That said, both the gold and silver CoTs are obviously quite bullish in regards to the Cartel net short ratios.
Clearly, the table looks set for the "explosive, hot and historic" summer I've been predicting for some time now. There is just one problem: The FOMC meeting this week. All of this....the CoT, the charts, everything looks bullish and this is almost exactly where we've been on 5 or 6 occasions this year. The metals move up and look, or even begin, to break out and then The Bernank opens his mouth and The Cartels drop the hammer. We could very well be being set up again. I can see it now. Gold rallies near or through 1640 by Tuesday, sucking in a bunch of new spec longs (Spec longs that just sold last week. See above.) Then, The Bernank "disappoints" and gold quickly drops back toward 1600. The new spec longs sell out and even go short. Finally, on Friday with a whole new, fresh batch of spec shorts to squeeze, a horrific NFP number causes the metals to spike back higher and we finish the week about where we began.
Now let me state this clearly: This is not how it has to work. The charts and the CoT look great and we are likely on the verge of a big rally. However, would anyone be surprised if the week plays out almost exactly as I've described above?
Because this is a complicated scenario and because it is such an important week ahead, I decided to make yesterday's TurdTalksMetals podcast available to everyone. As I've mentioned before, it is much easier for me to clearly express myself verbally than through typed text and yesterday's podcast was quite effective (at least I think so). To access the podcast, simply clink the link below. Once you're there, hit the "play" button and the audio will begin.
If you like what you hear, please consider joining the community. The feedback from subscribers has been overwhelmingly positive so far, so I think you'll find that it's well worth the money. Additionally, next month we'll begin interacting with some industry "heavyweights". Gonzalo has lined up James Turk to be our first
victim guest and the plan is to let members submit some of the questions. After that, I'll bring in Andy, Ned, Jim, James, Dan...you name it. My goal is to get you personal access to expertise you wouldn't otherwise have. It's going to be very informative and...a lot of fun. (And if you've been holding off on joining while we worked out "the bugs", come on in now. The site is safe, secure and fully-operational.)
I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend...emphasis on relaxing. Next week promises to be crazy volatile so get ready. Come back Monday with your game face on. See you then!