Two Things On My Mind

Earlier today, I spent about an hour visiting with Jim Willie. As usual, the conversation was enlightening and thought-provoking. Along those lines, two items have been stuck in my head all day. I thought I'd get them stuck in your head, too.

First, someone asked me in the previous thread if I had asked Jim lately about his statement that gold would soon fall 20% before rising several fold. In all honesty, I never thought to ask him. We generally discuss "big picture" things when we talk so short-term prices fluctuations don't usually come up. 

OK, so here are the two things that are on my mind. First (and I mentioned this in the previous thread and in detail at TTM), is this idea of a U.S. treasury market "Black Hole". You may recall that Jim started using this metaphor back in early June. For a refresher, you should read this http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1339012800.php and maybe listen to this http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3910/tfmr-podcast-23-jim-willie-trifecta.

The idea behind the "black hole" is that its gravity is so strong that it sucks in everything around it. Back in early June, the 10-year note was yielding about 1.70%. Today it fell through 1.40%. As money flows toward the "safety" of treasuries, it flows out of other assets like corporate bonds, stocks, municipal bonds, sovereign bonds, high yield funds and on and on. Treasuries increase in price (yield drops) while the selling of every other asset causes their prices to fall. This, in turn, feeds into the crisis atmosphere, causing more selling of everything in order to purchase more treasuries. This makes treasury rates sink even further. This accentuates the crisis atmosphere and causes even more "flight to safety" until the "treasury black hole" has sucked in almost everything. It's a very interesting concept and we may be seeing it play out in real time. Ponder, please, the consequences of all this and what the world may look like with a 10-year below 1% and a 30-year near 2%.

The other thing we discussed was the LIEbor scandal and Barclays. Jim will be releasing a new, public newsletter with this as subject matter in a few days. Until then, here's the perspective he offered me. 

LIEbor is a huge, major scandal. New details are emerging every day and the size and scope of the manipulation is growing. It is now a simple matter of time before the lawsuits begin....and that's very important. In the discovery phase of these lawsuits, layers of Banking Cartel schematic will be laid bare. Not only will lawyers and investigators find damning, new information on LIEbor, it is inevitable that they will also unearth information regarding the decades of fraudulent and deceptive bullion banking activities. It is when this happens that the proverbial excrement will begin to hit the rotating blades.

What is the difference between allocated and unallocated gold? How many times over have bullion banks leveraged and "rehypothecated" unallocated gold? How many claims are there in the world to the same gold bar? How many folks/institutions/funds/central banks/countries think they own physical gold but, in fact, only own paper certificates? How much gold is really in GLD or the plethora of other U.S. or European ETFs? This is where it could get really interesting. As these investigations dig deeper and as new details come to light, how might price react? If it is finally revealed that non-existent physical metal has been methodically and fraudulently "sold" to the world for years, will this ultimately lead to the collapse of the entire Western World banking system? Can you see why I've been thinking about this all day???

While I was on vacation, the LIEbor scandal grew and morphed into the significant scandal that it has become. The idea that it could ultimately lead to far greater consequences than simple fines and embarrassment is something we all need to immediately consider.

TF

Comments

NW VIEW's picture

@ Guy down the street

Yes he is stuck but it is the "past" that is controlling his future.    If we look to our failures of the past to design our new world economy, we will soon be living in huts.      jmo

Turd Ferguson's picture

Magic Bean Recovery

MODERATOR

Keg's picture

opticsguy & "a guy down the street"

Now, instead of just a guy down the street, imagine a large public pension fund.  They are already underfunded when they base their calculation on an expected 6-8% investment return.  Cut that in half or less based on the current reality and there is no way they can meet the obligations.  The guy down the street is not the only one that will not be going on vacation in retirement.

Central banks keeping interest rates low so sovereigns can finance deficit spending is only going to destroy the economy for everyone. 

OrangeAlert's picture

DAG

I BTFD like a champ yesterday.  Happy so far.  Keep it running up.

Air Garcia's picture

Great - another 4 years of investigating

Not only will lawyers and investigators find damning, new information on LIEbor, it is inevitable that they will also unearth information regarding the decades of fraudulent and deceptive bullion banking activities.

seriously - WTF.  Don't we already know what's going on? And now we'll wait another 4 years for nothing to happen. 

alphamorph's picture

Option Expiry tomorrow

Option expiry day always seems to be a downer for silver and Turd did caution about this on Tuesday.  Given the sharp rise in PMs today (particularly in silver miners), what's your guess on how the BullionBanks (BB?) will take on the day tomorrow?

Antrobus's picture

China out maneuvers the good old boys

Here we go - a good move in the deadly serious global chess game that one side (us) doesn't even know it's playing. Imagine, 15 billion in fiat currency for a massive set of Canadian/North American resources.

"The Chinese state oil company, CNOOC, which offered a 61% premium to Nexen’s Friday stock price, already has interests in Canada – including oil sands operations in Alberta, and shale gas in British Columbia – as well as extensive exploration and production holdings in the North Sea, Gulf of Mexico and offshore West Africa. Nexen, Canada’s sixth-largest independent oil explorer and producer, also operates in the Gulf of Mexico, Colombia, the North Sea, Yemen and offshore West Africa.

A big step for China is that the Nexen offer is for the entire company. In the wake of Unocal, many Chinese buyers have chosen to buy stakes in overseas companies rather than attempt full takeovers."

Magpie's picture

John Williams on FBN

with Tom Sullivan, discussing the real UE numbers. 

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1748956928001/the-real-unemployment-numbe...

tyberious's picture

Greenland ice sheet melted at unprecedented rate during July

Scientists at Nasa admitted they thought satellite readings were a mistake after images showed 97% surface melt over four days

Greenland ice sheet composite.View larger picture
The Greenland ice sheet on July 8, left, and four days later on the right. An estimated 97% of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. Photograph: Nasa

The Greenland ice sheet melted at a faster rate this month than at any other time in recorded history, with virtually the entire ice sheet showing signs of thaw.

The rapid melting over just four days was captured by three satellites. It has stunned and alarmed scientists, and deepened fears about the pace and future consequences of climate change.

In a statement posted on Nasa's website on Tuesday, scientists admitted the satellite data was so striking they thought at first there had to be a mistake.

"This was so extraordinary that at first I questioned the result: was this real or was it due to a data error?" Son Nghiem of Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena said in the release.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/24/greenland-ice-sheet-th...

Fired's picture

Still waiting for the real

Still waiting for the real breakout in gold. We may see $1570-$1580 tomorrow going into options expiry. I think this is "max pain" price. If it doesn't drop below $1583-85 then that would be a retest and confirmation of the short-term breakout IMO. Miners not levering as much as I'd like so I am holding my hedge for now. We really need to see $1615 cleared. Silver acting like its not convinced.

Magpie's picture

If they can't manage a relatively small group of patients,

what will they do with 300M of us? 

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/07/24/Gov-t-Healthcare-VA-A...

 

According to CBS13, numerous clerical errors have “killed off” living veterans, which then triggered notification letters to their families.

Kate Owens, according to CBS13, discovered her VA account had been deleted when a letter addressed to her husband announced she had died. Now, Owens has to submit documents proving she is not dead in order to continue receiving her benefits by the end of the month. 

CBS13 found other incidents where veterans have been accidentally deleted from the database. Army veteran Jerry Miller of Palm Bay, Florida told CBS13 the same mistake has happened to him four different times since 2010.

Sisyphus's picture

Global warming is bull

@tyberious

I wouldn't trust Suzanne Goldenberg or the Guardian on anything, least of all the funding-fest of global warming. For a less alarming view, try

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/24/greenland-ice-melt-every-150-years...

Just my attempt to contribute to the fascinating controversies on this site!

Incidentally, did anyone else spot this item from Seeking Alpha:

"11:01 AM The Pentagon reportedly will send a squadron of Lockheed Martin's (LMT) F-22 fighter jets on a flight to Japan, indicating the F-22's problems are being solved and that restrictions on the plane's use likely will be lifted. The Air Force says breathing problems experienced by the planes' pilots were due to a lack of oxygen provided to pilots."

lol.

Turd Ferguson's picture

$ and mouth

MODERATOR

Full disclosure: While at FreedomFest, I made a tidy sum playing blackjack. When I got home on Monday, I mailed a check to RJO with part of the proceeds. Today, I purchased a Dec12 $35 silver call. I'm now long a Dec 35 and a Dec 40. Taken from one casino and placed within another. wink Planning for a hot and explosive summer.

babaganoush2307's picture

We get to find out later today if....

....the fed will be audited, let's hope so and see what turns up in those books....

http://dailybail.com/home/ron-pauls-audit-the-fed-bill-on-track-to-pass-house-vote-sch.html

ClinkinKY's picture

@TF

While at FreedomFest, I made a tidy sum playing blackjack

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

See? I mentioned in a previous post about TF being a "card counter". Well done TF.

You may have to ditch the big yellow hat, next time you go, so they don't ban you.wink

Turd Ferguson's picture

Actually, just luckier than

MODERATOR

Actually, just luckier than shit.

The last night I was there, I lost at blackjack, craps and even pai gow. I was about to go to bed and instead sat down at a "BlackJack Switch" table, where I was basically playing four hands at once. The dealer went ice cold and Daddy made quite a bit of money in a very short time.

Like I said, my main consolation is that I'm using "casino money" to trade at the Comex Casino. Now, I'm sitting back and waiting for my "hot and explosive summer" (and fall).

Response to: @TF
Mr.Grey's picture

Soybeans

I'm not a trader but if I was a betting on it I'd bet on corn over 8 rather than beans over 16.  At least in this part of the country there were alot of corn acres that went to beans as many were hesitant to plant corn early and then a wet spell put off planting.  The hay crop is about 1/3 of normal and cattlemen are selling down or out.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes, excellent points

MODERATOR

And many think that the corn crop is already damaged beyond repair.

I think the "issue" hanging over corn is whether the EPA will waive the ethanol mandate. IF they do, corn could drop sharply. However, I will buy that dip with both hands!

Response to: Soybeans
ClinkinKY's picture

ATF, FBI, CIA don't hold a candle to the IRS

 

The irony of this story is the piece itself...an American eagle.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • American bald eagle

    Federal law bars possession of a bald eagle - dead or alive.

 

Pair inherits $65M sculpture, but can't sell it to pay $29M tax bill

Placing a value on an item that cannot be sold is no easy feat. The venerable auction house Christie’s placed the value of "Canyon" at zero. The IRS initially put it at $15 million, then jumped the figure to $65 million when Sundell and Homem refused to pay, according to The New York Times.

The IRS, which declined to comment on the matter, is not only asking for $29 million in taxes, but also an $11.7 million “gross valuation misstatement” penalty, according to Forbes.

Sundell and Homem, who could not be reached for comment Tuesday, have paid $471 million in federal and state estate taxes related to the collection and have already sold roughly $600 million worth of art to pay those taxes, Lerner told FoxNews.com.

 
Double Bogey's picture

Quote of the Day

"To anyone having a problem with the removal of Joe Paterno's statue on the Penn State campus - just look away and pretend it didn't happen."

Magpie's picture

@baba

And Dirty Harry will never let the audit legislation see the light of day in the Senate. 

realitybiter's picture

CA law

Ca Lawyer

Good stuff

  1. Bonds 2012 = dotcom stocks 1999.  Barton Biggs stated he was befuddled in June of 1999.  The dotcom boom was senseless to him.  Yet, it kept on truckin’....The valuations were detached from their worth.  It is beyond illogical to “hope” that US govt bonds and muni bonds will somehow behave differently than the bonds of the Europeans.  We do the same thing...how could we expect a different result?
  1. The winners in 1999 were those that got out and stayed out.  Your money has to go somewhere.  Back then it was from equities to bonds.  Today?  Out of bonds and where to?  Equities?  no.  real estate?  I am floored by the lack of good options.  There are two very important realizations and they are both connected by size.  The first is that the debt explosion has distorted GDP.  It has both pulled forward demand AND created fictitious demand (like it did in housing in 2002-2007).  What will GDP be when this plays out?  A lot less.  Simply assuming that good companies will navigate this is foolish - they can’t swim in a current of contracting demand.  This was a big mistake folks made after the dotcom boom....there was so much demand pulled forward that profitability was destroyed FOR YEARS in the industries supporting the boom...take JDSU or PMCS as examples (on 15 year charts...)

The second point is this....if bond money flows out of bonds - where can it go?  farmland?  diamonds?  art?  metals?  This is like the Hoover dam being emptied into a backyard kiddy pool.  The only way to resolve insane demand and limited supply is madness.  I doubt it gets resolved in price alone.  Folks like your next CA guv would have no problem exercising a heavy hand.  We kind of saw this with MF Global....BK distributed assets illegally and unfairly....and the gubmint did nothing to protect those that owned the assets....not a lot different than the gubmint stealing it themselves.  JPM is a gubmint agent, of course...

  1. It is an incredible time to be alive.  I lived the dotcom boom, toiling in the mines of sili valley.  I remember a couple of thoughts I had....1) disbelief during the boom phase....During the first quarter of 2000 I thought, “what will new college grads have to look forward to?  all the money has been made?”  2)  During the end of the crash a couple of years later, “15 more days like today and the nasdaq will be at zero”...(took care of thought number 1)

Oh, the gold to dow ratio peaked less than 20 trading days after Biggs “Befuddled” statement.....just sayin’...that was not a little peak...it was a centuries in the making peak...I here is words of 1999 in David Stockman’s today...

cavalier's picture

Turd Why December? Why so far our?

You have December 35 and 40

Why so far out?

If we have an explosive summer, couldn't we go shorter?

thanks for all that you do

Turd Ferguson's picture

I've played that game often enough

MODERATOR

Not taking any chances. Giving myself lots of time.

Turd Ferguson's picture

IF (when) I'm right...

MODERATOR

The first thing (when silver is near $35) I'll do is sell two Dec 40s, thereby creating a 5-point spread vs the $35 and a maximum profit of $25,000.

I'll then have the proceeds of the sale to re-invest into 45s and we'll start rolling.

Maybe just wishful thinking. We'll see...

Mr.Grey's picture

Ethanol mandate

For the last three years our local ethanol plant has had me come in and help during harvest.  I usually fill tank cars or load out wet cake.  This facility has around 3 million bu of corn on hand most of the time and uses around 100,000 bu/day.  When the price of corn gets to high for the profit margin they just shut down and sell the corn.  Last fall they were shipping straight 200 proof alcohol that all went to a chinese contract.  Other options they have is to make vodka.  Most in the midwest are not set up to utilize switch grass or beets.  So the mandates would affect the states but not always the ethanol plants.

Bsong's picture

I'm curious Turd as to how

I'm curious Turd as to how much you have risked for this strategy and is there more risk than what you've already invested?  Thanks

agNau's picture

Faber.

Stated that money is now looking for an "assured" return, even though negative.
The Black Hole theory makes perfect sense.
Keep stacking.
This winding road will end at our doorsteps.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Greek Politicians

keeping focused on the big picture. Nothing better to do.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/greece-expels-olympic-athlete-over-133231136--oly.html

"Before the publication of the last tweet, Democratic Left, one of the three parties in Greece's coalition government, had published a statement assailing the "racist humor" and calling on the Hellenic Olympic Committee to expel Papachristou from the Olympics

"Let her make any miserable 'jokes' on social media while watching the games on TV. She definitely cannot represent Greece in London," the Democratic Left statement said."

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