Back In The Saddle
I'm back in the saddle, again. Got my trusty Turd hat on. I'm armed with my Sharpie and ruler. Let's get busy.
We might as well dive right into the metals. It looks like I picked the right week to take a vacation as both metals have been stuck in rather tight ranges now for over two weeks. Yuck. So now the question becomes...what happens when these flat-line periods end? Will the metals collapse through their respective floors or will they catapult higher? Of course, anything is possible and I still would not discount the idea that the Cartels could make a run at the stops below 1525 and 26. However, I am still supremely confident that prices will soon move significantly higher.
In the short term, we have to deal with option expiration first as the August gold options expire on Thursday. We'll certainly see the usual gaming of paper price as we approach the hour of expiration but, with price so flat over the past 10 weeks, it shouldn't be overly dramatic. We'll see.
One more thing regarding silver...The Mullet is interviewed in this Bloomberg article and he states that the "silver investigation", which has been ongoing since 1957, may finally draw to a close later this year. Whatever, dude. Tell the rest of The Allman Brothers hello for me. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-23/cftc-s-chilton-sees-silver-probe-concluding-this-year.html
As you know, crude broke higher last week and was able to make it to nearly $93. However, it couldn't hold that position and has now run into profit-taking. Oh, well. It doesn't look like the situation in the MENA has improved much. Let's look to BTFD.( http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-23-08-06-13) & ( http://www.debka.com/article/22204/Two-hours-for-Syrian-chemical-weapons-to-reach-Lebanon-Four-armies-prepared)
Speaking of mustard gas, The POSX has been as strong, of not stronger, than mustard gas over the past few weeks. Always remember and never forget that a rising Pig simply is a reflection of weakness in other, global fiat. The Pig will, one day soon, have it's time in the barrel. Before then, however, it certainly looks like it is making a run back toward the top of its perennial range, near 88.
Lastly, the grains. I've been hoping for a dip to buy and I may be getting it this week. I mentioned in the previous post that they were susceptible to a brief, sharp pullback and the latest Midwest forecast shows temps this week that will not be quite as hot as previously thought. There may even be some rain.
As I type, beans are down about 40c from their Friday close and corn is down about 15c. Let's see if this can continue a bit. I'm looking to buy the dip, though. Driving home yesterday, I was struck by how terrible the crops look. Just awful and it's only July. The damage has already been done and yields will not recover. That said, IF the heat doesn't weaken and IF it only gets worse in August, we could actually be looking at an horrific failure. This is NOT something we want to see for a plethora of reasons. That said, we might as well make some money if it's going to happen. I'll be watching grain prices closely all week and I'll keep you posted.
One bit of interesting reading I found over the weekend and I comes from the FT. FWIW: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7015fcfc-d419-11e1-942c-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fworld_us%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz21OxxcIVV
OK, that's all for now. For all TurdTalksMetals members, that service is now back to fully-operational. I hope you've found the changes that we've made satisfactory and are pleased with the new design. For everyone else, please consider joining. We've worked out the technical issues and any concerns that folks had over "site security" have been rectified, as well. The site is growing but, if we're ever going to have a Turdapalozza, it needs to be more than 150 members so please give membership a renewed consideration. I think you'll find great value there but maybe some of the current members can chime in with some objective feedback in the comments of this thread.
Thanks again to everyone for patience while I was out. Now, let's go get 'em.