I Hope You're Ready. I am.

I've been on vacation long enough. Batteries are recharged. Perspective has been gained. Things are about to get very, very interesting in the metals. I'm ready. Are you?

Both metals are rapidly approaching a conclusion to their long-term, corrective patterns. By Monday, I'll be able to draw on these charts again but, for now, you'll have to use your imagination. Connect the tops with a down-sloping line and connect the bottoms with a horizontal line. These "descending triangles" are near their completion as both metals are working themselves into the very tight, acute angle at the far end. WHEN they break out and UP, what is happening will be clear to all. The hot, explosive summer and fall will have begun. Be ready.

Here are some news items that you should be following. As mentioned yesterday, if you want to follow the events on the ground in Syria, this link is your best bet: http://www.aljazeera.com/watch_now/. Israel has fingered Iran/Hezbollah as the culprits behind the bombing in Bulgaria yesterday. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/alleged-mastermind-behind-israel-bus-explosion-identified-swedish-national-mehdi-ghezali. And, the U.S. is appearing to gear up for military action somewhere in the area: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/three-us-aircraft-carriers-now-middle-east-fourth-en-route. All of this has served to drive crude well through $90 and $100+ now looks quite possible very soon.

Soybeans are reaching a mania phase. They are up over $1/bushel in just the past 24 hours. They are likely due for a brief but sharp pullback soon but things aren't looking better, by any means. Here's a 5-minute chart as well as an updated version of the Kansas City forecast I posted earlier this week.

UBS sees hyperinflation coming. (Wait a minute. I thought hyperinflation was just some sort of Austrian pipe dream. David Frum said so. Oh well, Switzerland is pretty close to Austria. It must simply be contagious.) http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperinflation-risk-major-currency-2012-7

Peter Schiff is worried about tyranny and fascism. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/18_Peter_Schiff_-_This_Is_My_Single_Greatest_Fear.html

And Trader Garrett (a friend of Trader Dan) has written summary for those searching for bottoms and trend changes. http://marketpendulum.blogspot.com/p/in-depth-coverage.html

OK, that's all for today. Keep the faith.

TF

557 Comments

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Okay, okay, some of you hate this 'first' crap,

so I'll try to knock it off.

I LIVE in Kansas City, and it's really sucking.

My garden is taking a lot of abuse - the soaker hoses are going daily.

Most everything is still hanging in there, but the tomatoes have stopped producing fruit and are just getting tall.

Normally we have high humidity in the midwest, which makes the heat worse for us bipeds but helps the plants.  Not so this time.  It's as if Kansas City turned into Phoenix AZ - hot and dry.

Grass is brown & crispy.  Herbs are dying.  The new peach tree is a stick with a couple of leaves hanging on for dear life.

Another week of this shit will pretty much pull the trigger and kill off a LOT of stuff - like it did my blackberries.

I'm getting tired of this - REAL tired.

IF silver makes a move, that'd be a ray of sunshine.  Any other sunshine we don't need for a good long while.

RaulP's picture

yes

yes

cpnscarlet's picture

It's true. Second.

It's true. Second.

TreeTop Dweller's picture

Locked and Loaded

Fire in the hole!

Moderator Jane's picture

Reminder to move conspiracy arguments to the forums

MODERATOR

Here's the topic for it:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4029/911-and-other-conspiracies-should-not-be-main-street

And in the future, I expect those of you who have been long-time members of the community to lead by example and take "personal responsibility" by creating your OWN forum topics and asking people to continue to engage with you there, instead of posting your angry knee-jerk response here.

In other words, if you want this blog to be less centrally controlled and promote the views of "smaller government," then you need to self-police more. 

Or we can become a central socialist state if you prefer. ;-)

Thank you!
Comrade Jane

ClinkinKY's picture

Good to see you back TF...

...I thought maybe you'd decided to stay in Vegas and become a "card counter"wink

Edited to clarify for those not familiar with casino rules:

Just realized that some Turdites might have considered this an accusation of TF being a cheater. My intention was to point out that Vegas bans people for being able to "beat the system" even though it's NOT illegal. It was a compliment!

Moderator Jane's picture

@TrueBull

MODERATOR

And that includes your continued attempts to post that off-topic inflammatory Israel video. That belongs in the forums, not here. 

Battle Beagle's picture

New Physical Silver Exchange?

Turd,

Just checking to see if there have been any updates on the new physical silver exchange? I think you mentioned that Ned was having trouble sourcing the silver? What quantities of silver are we talking about?

Thanks,

Battle Beagle

Also, Checkout 

More Earthquakes In The Silver Market

 
""What does this all means? It means more earthquakes before what could be one of the largest price eruptions in the investment world since 2008 (chart 3)."
 

http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2012/07/more-earthquakes-in-silver-market.html

indosil's picture

(No subject)

o

Istack's picture

Very Very

Things are about to get very, very interesting in the metals

please don't double up on the very's.  i tend to get over-excited, wet my pants and go out and stack more silver. 

tyberious's picture

Bill Murphy: JPM Stopped Manipulating Silver From January-June o

http://www.silverdoctors.com/bill-murphy-jpm-stopped-manipulating-silver-from-january-june-of-2011/

GATA’s Bill Murphy has just publicly released STUNNING new revelations regarding JP Morgan’s alleged silver manipulation.
Murphy states an informed source has advised him that JP Morgan was compelled to stop manipulating the silver market in January of 2011, and that fact is the reason why silver ran from $28 to $50 over the next 6 months.
Murphy states JPM took down silver in the infamous overnight May 2011 raid from an auxiliary account, and began manipulating silver again in June of 2011.

Murphy’s source also states that JP Morgan’s CIO derivatives losses are actually tied to the Bear Stearns short silver positions JPM inherited from the Fed in 2008, and that the LIBOR scandal will soon engulf JP Morgan in a SILVER MANIPULATION scandal- likely when the CFTC releases their findings on their silver manipulation in the next 30-60 days!

GoldMania3000's picture

Rickards at 12.10 mark

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Y-bjjSL2OUo

​this is excellent. Talks about how LIBOR is criminal and is one step closer to collapse and infers to the manipulation of g and s.  but we need the smoking gun. seems like this is all going to bubble up to one big crazy shit

 
Dr Jerome's picture

Keeping the ship afloat.

From my perspective, AG could move sideways quite a while longer unless the Big Movement suggested by Turd comes to Pass soon. I would argue that he Banksters simply wish to hold the system together longer. Lehmann was not in their long-term plans. They recognized some flaws (COMEX and AG being one) and have worked very hard to address them. “Stay in power” may be their mantra at this point. They keep kicking the can. When one has the power to print money, controls interest rates, and has the military and politicians of the world eating from their hand, the can might be kicked for a long time.

On manipulation, the EE seems to be subtracting .60 to .80 per day. That adds up after a few weeks. So this sideways motion may add up to a very deep manipulative event. It doesn’t have to be 8 bucks in three days to count as manipulation. Others have mentioned this, but we seem to not notice.

I’d love to know who is funding the sunken silver recovery. The British have known the silver was down there since the ship sank. They knew the precise location. But why bring it up? Why now? If someone else had found it, they could have easily shut down an illegal salvage effort. But something has prompted them to finally recover it. I no longer believe that anything event affecting the AG markets happens randomly.  MFG, PFB, Kodak, sunken ships

That makes me go, “Hmmmm…”

Moderator Jane's picture

May I Add

MODERATOR

That just because Turd wrote "Israel has fingered Iran/Hezbollah as the culprits behind the bombing in Bulgaria yesterday" this is NOT an open invitation to start hammering the thread with pro-Palestianian/anti-Israel/anti-Zionist stuff. The reason why we don't want that stuff here is because it becomes proselytizing. And that's not discussion, that's about trying to advertise your beliefs. So take that stuff to the forums. 

Sisyphus's picture

Define interesting.

Turd: "Things are about to get very, very interesting in the metals."

From 'Serenity', to all fellow Browncoats:

What was that? Did you see that?
Was that the primary buffer panel?
It did seem to resemble... Did the primary buffer panel...
just fall off my gorramn ship for no apparent reason?
Looks like.
I thought Kaylee checked the entry couplings.
I've a clear memory of it. If she doesn't get us...
extra flow from the engine room to offset the burn-through...
this landing is gonna get pretty interesting.
Define "interesting. "

"Oh, God, oh God, we're all gonna die!"
This is the captain. We have a little problem...
with our entry sequence, so we may experience some...
slight turbulence and then explode.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Thanks TF

Nice to read that after engaging in some SUI. (Stacking Under the Influence).

Dr Jerome - "That makes me go, “Hmmmm…”

Best to go 'Hmmmm' in the forums. 'Hmmmm' can too often lead to 'Hmmm yourself, dumb MFer!'. Sorry, I couldn't resist.wink

Mr.Grey's picture

Israel has fingered Iran

I didn't even know they were seeing each other!

cpnscarlet's picture

It is distressing...

that Murphy comes down to "stopped manipulating for some unknown reason". There's another critical piece of info we don't have. Do we believe what Murphy is saying? Why not? But if this means there is a catalyst somewhere that stopped the manipulation before, what was that darn thing and how can we help to repeat it????

But then I remember Ben Davies calling the drop from $49 nearly to the hour. Maybe Ben Davies knew (or was told) something very specific. Lucky, lucky, him. 

indosil's picture

Santa's Mail

This was my query to Santa on 7th of July

Dear Jim,

           Whatever you have been saying is turning out to be true.As per you Gold is being attacked this week mercilessly.Is $1400 on the cards?Fed's refusal to print..ECB printing but the money seems to be going into Bonds & not Gold or Silver.Yesterday's FOMC minutes have no hints on guaranteed printing.If Ben doesn't print on 1st of August ..will it lead to more correction in Gold & Silver?Your words are a great Source of Inspiration...looking forward to listen from you.
 
Thanking You In Anticipation
Kind Regards
CIGA Indosil
 
 
Santa's Reply
 
 Anything can happen on gold road to $3500 and more. If you are trading on margin you have a financial death wish.
Jim
 
croc987's picture

I hope Murphy is right but

Will the CFTC really do that??   How can they when JPM metal suppression, LIBOR fixing and consequent gold leasing rate suppression, IRSwaps, ZIRP, etc. are all part of the same USGovt/Fed policy to suppress bond yields and keep the UST bond ponzi afloat??  

ggnewmex's picture

RE:Iran/Syria

Saw this article. One can only speculate, may be a normal deployment....

maybe not??

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2012/07/ap-virginia-mortuary-unit-to-middle-east/

With the 4th carrier group floating in there, please what is going on in Damascus...

one has to stop and consider

cpnscarlet's picture

@croc987 - Right on! Do we

@croc987 - Right on! Do we really think at this point that any part of this tangled web can or will be uncovered/prosecuted/dismantled? The house of cards is unstable, but there's a "cop" at every card who will make sure it stays there.

Vis a vis my last post - it still seems the only thing we can do is stack - get the phyzz out of the system. After all if it's a choice between that and writing my congressman a nasty letter, which will give me more satisfaction???

Nuff said. Now, if I only had some dry powder....

Dr Jerome's picture

cpn

What is Ben Davies saying these days?

I Run Bartertown's picture

cpn

"After all if it's a choice between that and writing my congressman a nasty letter, which will give me more satisfaction???"

I'm not advocating anything, but I remember reading somewhere that you could write a letter to your congresscritter but that bullets are cheaper than stamps.

Did you know that cats carry bubonic plague? Dogs don't.

Maybe you could just mail them that cat.enlightened.

proton777's picture

Keep in mind....

...maybe metals *should* go higher, but will they?  In a free market, where supply and demand dictate price, I'd be a little less skeptical about a sharp move up.

Uh-oh, wait a  minute. What's this?  1:25 pm has arrived.  Look at the pretty waterfall.

Xeno's picture

Raising Silver

Why is that huge cache of silver from a shipwreck being raised now? Obviously because Llyods, or AIG, or whatever insurer has already paid out on the loss.

I wonder who the original recipient was to be and whether they will still get it.

In any case, that picture is probably the last we'll see of it. Unless it's shorted as a hedge for someone.

Beastly Stack's picture

Absolutely Sick

It is just bullshit!I've quiet here today bc this mkt makes me f..... sick.Completely criminal!

I just stopped writing to catch the close,now I am even more pissed.Dollar is on the lows and oil is about to grab a 93 handle.

I'm not going to let these fu... scare me out!

Thieves!

DaddyO's picture

Can You Say...

extremely bullish on ______________________________! (Insert commodity here)

DaddyO

billwilson's picture

Just saw the tell

Gold hammered into the COMEX close ... miners barely reacted. Usually a pretty good tell that a move higher is coming. On normal days you would see the miners sell in sympathy. Today, nada, especially on the majors.

treefrog's picture

rain

the midwest may be getting a blow-dry job, but it's warm and wet here in north florida.  good heavy rain three times the last week and several sprinkles thrown in.  just now there are dark clouds and thunder.  no rain yet today at this location but it's all over the area on doppler radar.  

http://local.msn.com/weather.aspx

my basset hound "dragon" is cowering on the porch, trying to get into the house.  he's a wuss!  and an outdoor dog.   my miniature dachshund, "minnie," on the other hand (paw?) is taking it calmly.  courage and size do not correlate.

...sky getting darker, breeze picking up...

there's quite a bit of corn raised around here.   if the midwest crop flops, the prices will make our farmers smile.

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