Metals, Grains & Crude. Oh, My!

A very interesting day in all three. What will Wednesday bring?

First, the metals. As has been the case for all of 2012, The Bernank spoke today and down went gold and silver. After nearly reaching $1600 in early London trading, gold was pummeled well in advance of The Bernank and fell to as low as $1572 shortly after The Great Douchebag spoke. However, contrary to pattern from earlier this year, the metals subsequently reversed and traded higher, reaching $1592 just two hours later. Both metals have since been beaten back but the action today was encouraging, nonetheless. As you can plainly see on the charts below, both metals are rapidly moving toward a conclusion of their multi-month corrections. When they break...which will be soon...they will both break sharply and decisively higher.

Crude is getting very interesting as the situation in the MENA is becoming quite tense. Here's a story from the LATimes which confirms much of what Debka told us earlier today. Now above $88, the next objective is $90. IF it can get a toe-hold there and maintain it for a day or two, it will be set up for a run back toward $100. Not only could options players profit from this but holders of UCO would make a few bucks, too.

Read this: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-syria-damascus-fighting-20120718,0,1068141.story

And this: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-07-17/words-war And then watch this:

Lastly, the grains. Both corn and soyas are perched right below their respective, all-time highs. They may continue to struggle to generate momentum here in the short term but, in the long term, new highs almost look inevitable. I googled "Kansas City Weather" and I came up with the forecast below from a KC television station. 108F may be OK in the Sahara or the Outback but in the American Midwest, where corn and soybeans require consistent irrigation for growth and yield, a forecast of 100F+ heat with no rain is a real, potential disaster. IF you have a few dollars to fiddle (gamble) with and you don't yet own DAG, you should give it some serious thought.

Here are two bits of interesting reading for you. The first is from Pat Heller who comments on his FreedomFest experience: http://www.libertycoinservice.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=486:new-gold-commission-in-2013&catid=4:numismaster-articles&Itemid=9

And here is Rick Rule (who I also met at FreedomFest). Rick spoke with KWN regarding silver and other things: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/17_Rule_-_The_Physical_Silver_Market_Is_Getting_Dangerously_Tight.html

OK, that's all for now. MrsF keeps looking at my sideways so I must start heading back to my regularly-scheduled vacation. Have a great Wednesday!

TF

426 Comments

rocoach's picture

Oh Yes!

I've been waiting for a pop in grains (JJG), oil (UCO) and metals (SLV & Phyzz).

balz's picture

Last !

Last !

Dagney Taggart's picture

Good Night.

Mother, Son, and Holy Ghost

Mr. Fix's picture

Fourth?

Fourth?

Thanks Turd!

ivars's picture

GSR continues to move

GSR continues to move sideways. One more week like this and it will clearly outside the March-July uptrend channel support. Or it could it be a head forming- that would mean silver prices will remain quite low but on average at current levels  for at least another month- 1,5 months. Till September.  Or, if it just moves down within next weeks (could be a double top) , then silver goes up earlier. Why would that be?

Wallace Hartley's picture

@ Ivars re: Safest Banks (from last thread)

I've been thinking about your search for the safest place to park your non-PM fiat.  After much consideration, and as much as I hate to say it, I think the safest place to park your electronic $ is with JPM Chase.  The reasoning behind this idea has to do with recent history.  It's widely held that JPM is the Fed's commercial bank henchman that does it's master's bidding.  It's also painfully obvious that because of their cozy relationship with the Fed, that JPM is the biggest and most special of the TBTF banks.  Following this logic, it's very likely that JPM will be saved at any cost as it is the most important cog in the commercial banking system in the eyes of the Fed (who will be in charge of the redistribution of our tax dollars in the next inevitable bailout).  As much as I hate to say it, I think JPM will be higher on the bank bailout list than your smaller/local/community bank and therefore has a much higher likelihood of surviving the next crisis and will undoubtedly survive longer than the little guys. The only thing left to consider is the horrible moral dilemma involved with depositing your money with the devil. Remember, it's best not to be too emotional when it comes to protecting your wealth.

ivars's picture

Banks- thanks everyone

The remarks I got on my question about safe(r) banks will now be an input in new area I need to process. A good start, though no obvious answer, as expected, as I live in obscure place , except for JPM but from where I live I think- have not checked- how do I get an account there. Anyway, this has not to be done tomorrow, and cashing out 3 -6 month existence amount is a good idea as well. In USDs for next few years. (despite the fact that PMs will move up in USD, other things will move up less than in most other currencies, especially EUR).

Fulgurite's picture

Nonsense!

Turd, you can 'bottom call' all you want but neither Gold nor Silver will move higher, UNLESS The Bernank announces QE3.

And what's with this sudden 'link' between the grains and PM's? You really think the grains will drag PM's higher because of a drought....and all that in a manipulated market?!? Come on Turd, you are seriously contradicting yourself here!

Just like all those 'bottom callers' on KWN, you can 'chart' all you want looking for a bottom, but we will have to wait for QE3. Simple as that...

ivars's picture

I see that being 100% focused

I see that being 100% focused on PMs means missing out a lot of other opportunities, like grain. Is that called consistence or what?

agNau's picture

FED can't print corn.

This should be our first unadultered market break.
As well, there is a seemingly united chorus on the bottom being in on the metals.
Fourth carrier group heads to the Hot Zone.
Everywhere you look, massive chaos!
Just what the NWO prescribed.
Good and Evil battle it out.
Just viewed an Alex Jones video on UN arms treaty that everyone needs to see and pass along. Everyone.
This is getting very serious.
Ammo, guns, and a very serious attitude to go along with them.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Huh?

MODERATOR

I've never said that the "grains would drag the metals higher". I follow the grains because I find them interesting. They were my first love. Besides that, a crop failure would have major, domestic and geo-political ramifications and, since this blog is about preparing for the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment, the grain discussion is very important.

Btw, this is interesting: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/18_Hathaway__Gold_Manipulation_-_Banks_Are_Agents_Of_The_State.html

Response to: Nonsense!
Strongsidejedi's picture

12th post - at the wee hours of the morning

TF - thanks for the blog (as always)...

The geopolitical issues are heating up.

With the attention focused on MENA, the People's Republic of China are paying attention to CNOOC oil projects in the oceans between China, Japan, Taiwan and the Phillippines.

Those oceans have oil reserves under them.

Those oceans are presently claimed by the Japanese.

Those oceans are presently being claimed by the PRC.

The US Navy is deployed to the Persian Gulf while the Chinese are confronting Japanese Coast guard off some of those islands.

The matters at hand can not last at this level for very long.

Either someone will need to stand down and go home, or some nation is going to be seriously hurt.

Lastly, I find the sudden realization of grain problems to be odd.

Last year during the MFGlobal threads, I clearly posted that the harvest this year would be a problem.

The farmers and farming coops got their financial hands tied by Corzine's crimes.  That left farmers late to get seed and late to plant.  The end result is that the plants never were able to fully mature.  Now, the fruits of the labor are drying like kindling on a hot plate. 

One match in the wrong place will create a fire that will be seen for miles.

S Roche's picture

Do Central Banks Lend Gold?

In case there is any doubt:

1. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/Documents/UK_Economy/Exchange_Equalisation_Account_1999_to_2000/ukecon_eea_index99.cfm

Excerpt: "The Exchange Equalisation Account (EEA) is the account that holds the UK's reserves of gold, foreign currencies and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). It was established in 1932 to provide a fund which could be used for "checking undue fluctuations in the exchange value of sterling". 

2. 1998-1999 Audited Accounts: ​http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/D/6/1998-99%20pdf.pdf

Excerpt:

"Gold 

26. The EEA continued its practice of lending part of its gold holdings to market participants.  161.5 tonnes was the maximum amount of gold lent at any one time during the year; interest received on gold lending during 1998-99 amounted to £7.34 million."

Excerpt: (Gold Swaps Confirmed)

"40.         As a member of the European Monetary System the UK swapped 20 per cent of its gold holdings and 20 per cent of its gross dollar reserves with the European Monetary Institute (later the European Central Bank) during 1998-99 in return for an equivalent value of official ECUs.  Each swap was for three months, at the end of which the swap was unwound and a new swap 
entered into.  The swaps reduced the level of gold and dollars on the EEA's statement of assets and liabilities and increased the holdings of ECUs.   This arrangement was unwound just ahead of the start of Stage 3 of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on 1 January 1999 and has now ceased. "
 
Others might like to pore through the more recent audited accounts and report back.
S Roche's picture

1999-2000

Gold
27.   The EEA continued its practice of lending part of its gold holdings to market participants.  The 
maximum amount of gold lent at any one time during the year was 200.4 tonnes; interest received on 
gold lending during 1999-2000 amounted to £15.6 million.
 
S Roche's picture

2000-2001

Gold
15. The EEA continued its practice of lending part of its gold holdings to market participants. The
maximum amount of gold lent at any one time during the year was 200.2 tonnes; interest received on
gold lending during 2000–01 amounted to £11.0 million.
 
 
Plus this one details Brown's Bottom.
S Roche's picture

2001-2002

Gold
12. The EEA continued its practice of lending part of its gold holdings to market participants. The
maximum amount of gold lent at any one time during the year was 200 tonnes (2001: 200 tonnes) and
interest received on gold lending during 2001-02 amounted to £14.0 million (2001: £11.0 million).
 
Including a final account of Brown's Bottom
ratioarbitrage's picture

Silver price = 10yr Treasury yield x low-volatility "n"

Just noticed by chance a correlation between the shape of the 5 year silver price in dollars and the 10 yr Treasury yield and put the charts side by side. It is a slipping correlation. The price of silver over the last 5 years has been approximately the 10 yr Treasury yield multiplied by a changing number which I have called "n".

Back in 2008 n had risen to about 5, but it rose quite rapidly 10 while the silver price was rebasing in 2009/10. It continued to rise steadily towards 13 as silver spiked in 2011. As silver came back down over the last year, n has continued to rise and now stands at over 15. The rate of increase in n is not very volatile.

My guess is that the actual correlation is with gold, but the Treasury yield has roughly twice the volatility of gold so silver gives a better fit. 

It strikes me as significant that there is a slight tendency for the upward slippage in n to happen at times when silver is NOT making new highs - perhaps when it is under less "non-market" downward pressure. The n figure is then maintained when yields rise. This is concordant with a picture of downward pressure or manipulation with short-term but no medium-term effectiveness (except as it impacts volatility).

There appears to be a widespread belief that treasury yields now "cannot" rise because the consequences for USGov finances would obviously be disastrous. Short term this may well be true. Pulling of Chinese bids has not had the expected effect. Lack of QE similarly. There is a natural zero bound however, since all that remains at zero yields and below are capital gains, as we have been hearing. The balance of risk between yields and gains becomes a simple ponzi with no major or sustainable upside risk for the price. The collapse of the UST ponzi is a big deal and appears to be under short-term (electoral cycle) control.

To my mind the discovery of this correlation

i) secures the medium-term likelihood of a major rise in the silver price and may allow the magnitude of this to be calculated / predicted more accurately based on long-term US bond rates 

ii) indicates that rises back toward $50 may be allowed to happen slowly - in which case I will be watching "n" for the future multiplier on the spike

iii) suggests that not much will happen until after November, since I don't see Treasury yields being allowed to spike moving into the election / coincident debt ceiling debacle.

El Gordo's picture

Floated a few libertads...

across the Rio Grande today.  Almost made it to this side before the tube they were loaded on flipped over from the wake of an alligator cruising nearby.  Guess he wanted them more than I did.  Will try to replace them again later I guess.  They were the older models, but still beautiful.

S Roche's picture

2003, 2004, 2005

2002-2003

The EEA continued its practice of lending part of its gold holdings to market participants. The maximum amount of gold lent at any one time during the year was 153 tonnes (2002: 200 tonnes) and interest received on gold lending during 2002-03 amounted to £4.2 million (2002: £14.0 million).
 
2003-2004
 
"17. The EEA continued to lend part of its gold holdings to market participants. The maximum amount of gold lent at any one time during the year was 123 tonnes (2003: 153 tonnes) and interest received on gold lending during 2003-04 amounted to £1.2 million  (2003: £4.2million)."

2004-2005

"17. The EEA continued to lend part of its gold holdings to market participants.  The maximum amount of gold lent at any one time during the year was 47 tonnes (2003-04: 123 tonnes) and interest received on gold lending during 2004-05 amounted to £0.3 million (2003-04: £1.2 million).  The reduction in interest received reflected the low gold lending rates that prevailed during the period and the lower volume of lending."
 
After 2004-2005 it appears that gold is not dealt with as a separate item and that interest earned from gold lending is not broken-out. There are references to revaluation of gold holdings, and to policy guidelines in respect of gold holdings, but no more specific mention of gold lending and swaps. Interestingly, there is a mention of the need for confidentiality in some market positions.
 
In annual assessments of gold supply it would seem that analysts should include gold lending from the BofE at anywhere from a minimum of 47 tonnes up to the maximum holding of 310 tonnes at any one time. Note that this amount could be lent, repaid and lent again during any reporting year so the total supply of gold lending could be larger than that previously reported.
 
Do analysts calculating annual gold supply include lending by Central Banks? If they do I cannot find it, yet from the information contained above it is clear that it is a major component of annual gold supply.
 
 
Sisyphus's picture

China more important than Bernanke?

I suspect we may get a boost from China rather more than from Bernanke.

China is now the #1 consumer of gold (India being temporarily stuck) .A Chinese economic 'comeback' is not priced in to the markets, and if the Chinese government wants to ensure good growth they are going to have to act.

There seem to be 2 views:

(1) China has bottomed at 7.6% GDP last quarter, but needs a lot of stimulus to put some distance between the bottom and a comfort zone of 8-9% growth.

(2) The 7.6% GDP is a fiction (look at electricity numbers which are flat y-o-y) and the government is *really* going to have to use the big stimulus guns to put some momentum back into the economy.

Being a state-controlled economy, there's little doubt China will fall apart one day due to incompetent malinvestment and misallocation, but my guess is that it can get away with government-push growth for another 2-5 years.

A major comeback in China's economy would be good for EMs and good for gold, and is about the last thing the markets expect at this point.

Any thoughts?

PS: Thank you to Turd and the Turdites. I've only been lurking for a short while (and only posting in the last coupla weeks) but it is certainly stimulating here!

ivars's picture

@ratioarbitrage - n and US debt increase rate

Interesting. I think n will move up as US debt increase accelerates. That may be sooner than November. As you can see here, correlation with US debt is the best one can ever get on PM (gold) prices, and that is quite natural, as it is solvency of the USA and USD based system , not actual inflation as such (but expected inflation at the collapse/reset)  that is driving the PM prices up.

In 2011- beginning of 2012 US debt growth SPEED ( increase/year or even better, % increase/year) has come markedly down from almost  2 trillion/year increase in 2009 and 2010. In fact, in 2011 it has been 1/2 of 2010 increase- about 1 trillion , so far the same low speed is maintained in 2012.  Hence the drop in PM prices in 2011 - early 2012 as expectations of continuous fast debt growth which drove the overbuying in 2011 (but was quite logical on the back of 2009-2010 debt growth speed)  of the USA debt did not materialize. However, this is just a temporary slowdown (it also happened after tech bubble before Iraq war) for many reasons, recession/USD strength being the most obvious one. War- if that happens- absolutely. These things all may happen before November, as well as QE as a response to them.  But it will happen, I mean acceleration in the USA debt growth.

One more thing- for systems moving towards crash ( i.e. partial default on US debt) , it is quite characteristic to show log-periodic oscillations before the final spike and crash. Log-periodic oscillations in such case INCREASE in frequency (decrease in wave length) nearing the crash. These oscillations sit on top of exponential growth curve, so are more clearly visible in logarithmic chart. Close to crash, growth curve turns superexponential ( on log chart that would mean upwards deviation from straight line) and oscillations disappear.

Looking at US debt chart above, there are easily discernable two waves on top of exponential growth, with a natural beginning in 1971 when USD was moved of gold and debt accumulation became inevitable way of US operating mode. The first wave is 30 years long, ending in 2001 where the next wave starts. The next wave seems to end in 2011- 2012, making its length 10-11 years. I think this is the last wave before the crash, but of course there could be one more 3-4  years long delaying the default to 2016-2017-even 2018. ( I think it will be end of 2015).

The ratio between the periods, 30/10=3 or 30/11 = 2,72 which is quite close to basic constant in time related processes in nature, e = 2,718... Such ratios between log-periodic oscillation period lengths occur quite often ( close to 3) and , while there are no proofs, can be considered quite Natural in time related processes  in the same sense as Fibonacci ratios are natural and often met in Nature in size/number related values.

So either

1) this was the last oscillation and next is the superexponential spike into default ( in which case default comes 2014-2015 end) ,

2)or there will be still one more oscillation of about 3-3,5 year length , leading to INCREASED rate of debt growth in 2012-2015 and crash (partial default) in 2016-7-8.

In both cases, the PM prices shall move up , though in first case it will happen much faster and the end of normalcy will come much faster as well.

Choose between these two , my modeling here  http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/83050#comment-83050 pointed  more to the case 1), but that modeling is not definitive as fit is not perfect. Lack the knowledge/matehmatical resources. I wonder why Sornette has not done this projection in his Financial Crisis Observatory site-looks so obvious and very interesting target  to me to predict:

http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/index

Bohemian's picture

The Greek island of Ikaria in the Aegean Sea --

-- might be on its way to secession from Greece and accession to Austria, according to an Austrian daily.

The hundred-year agreement by which Ikaria gained its independence from the Ottoman Empire and was annexed to Greece expires. Allegedly, following the expiry of the agreement, Ikaria may consider conducting a referendum of secession from Greece to join Austria.

The island of about 9,000 inhabitants seceded from the Ottoman Empire after a rebellion, and the Turkish occupation ended on 17 July 1912. For five months Ikaria was an independent state before merging with Greece. During the Greek military dictatorship between 1967 and 1974, the island was used as a prison for communist dissidents.

Potential secession of Ikaria would constitute a major problem for Athens, as the sea surrounding the island is very important for the country's fishing industry. President of the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber, Christoph Leitl, caused an outrage last year when he proposed that Greece should sell some of its islands to Turkey, in order to raise money to fight the economic crisis in the country.
 

Senseosensei's picture

Grain, weather, coincidence

Everything is manipulated. There is no coincidence. 

http://sincedutch.wordpress.com/2012/04/24/want-to-know-about-weather-modification-haarp-vlf-hf-and-chemtrails-want-to-prove-it-to-a-non-believer-here-you-go/

If only i could find one honest weather forecaster in the Netherlands to confirm what i see daily above my house in the sky.

ratioarbitrage's picture

@ivars - completely agree

Hat tips galore for your first chart and analysis of this underlying factor. Also very interesting comments on the characteristics of these oscillations, which I have been watching and studying carefully for the last five years! 

sixdollarsilver's picture

GSR

topping

tpbeta's picture

@Fulgurite

...has a point, though I would suggest it is over-stated. The market may move up on QE expectations for August and September, and if those expectations are not disappointed, then it will prove a foolish prediction.

I suspect Bernanke will not print till after the election personally. But there's no real way of knowing. My hunch is that he's planning to play chicken with congress over the fiscal cliff, post election. It's quite clear from his own mouth that he believe monetary stimulus is no longer a substitute for fiscal stimulus. Just listen to what he says.

SRSrocco's picture

THE PUBLIC FOCUS.....

ZITS ON AN ELEPHANTS ARSE

The title of this post was inspired by the frustrating conversations I have had with friends and acquaintances on the subjects of politics, energy and the economy.  Normally, I keep my BIG TRAP SHUT.  As one gets older (and supposedly wiser), you realize that people don’t change.  Conservatives will more than likely die as conservatives.  The majority of Liberals will also take their liberal philosophy to the grave.  Furthermore, those who practice one of the organized flavors of religion will probably be buried by that same variety of church they were lifetime members. 

People have been slowly programmed over their lifetime to believe and behave a certain way.  Trying to convince someone their ideology is invalid is trying to input software that is not recognized by their own programming.  Basically… it spits out the data and does not allow it to compute.  A few paragraphs or a page of information is not going to change millions of pages of programming in a person’s mind.

That being said:  every once in a great while, even I can’t help myself from following my own wisdom.  The majority of conversations I have with friends and local acquaintances are based upon SUPERFICIAL SMALL TALK.  Lately though, the conversations have moved to subjects of politics and the economy.  I gather the overall situation in the country and the world is become so GRIM, that the public is starting to catch wind.

I was at a local coffee house when one of my acquaintances started to talk to me about Obama and how he was screwing up everything.  I live in a very conservative state located in the southwest.  One of the pastimes of many of the folks here is to listen to TALK RADIO starting with Glenn Beck, then Rush Limbaugh and finishing up the jam-packed extravaganza with Sean Hannity.  After 7-8 hours back to back of this sort of programming, these folks really believe they got the SKINNY on everything they need to know.

It does take a lot of will-power to keep my mouth shut, but this morning this fella starting to go off about all these things I gather he heard on one of those fine upstanding radio talk shows about Obama.  Let me clarify my position before going further.  I am AGNOSTIC when it comes to politics.  I don’t belong to any parties or ideologies.  However, I do believe both parties are completely FOS (full of sheet).

This gentlemen was going off about how Obama’s lousy Secret Service men were caught fooling around with some prostitute and how the Obama Health Care Plan was passed and now the USA was nothing more than a SOCIALIST COUNTRY.  It was then (out of severe frustration) I took a pen and put a dot on a piece of paper.  I said that Dot was the Secret Service Men.  I then made another dot next to the first dot and said that was Obama Health Care. I went on a roll and placed dozens of other dots giving each one a label of meaningless subject matter.  I then took the pen and drew a huge eight foot imaginary circle around the dots and said this is:

“THOSE DOTS ARE ZITS ON AN ELEPHANTS ARSE……  Why on earth are you concerned about ZITS when you should be worried that the ELEPHANT is getting ready to sit on you and crush the live’n out of you?”

I told him the whole Wall Street controlled US Govt… Fiat Money… Derivatives Monster… Peak Oil… Massive Debts were all wrapped up as one big fat elephant ass.  I asked him if the elephant was ready to come down on you, why would you be concerned about the ZITS ON THE ELEPHANTS ARSE? 

He looked at me sort of puzzled.  Furthermore, I must have spoken with a little passion as several other people had overheard my diatribe and were looking at me kind of funny.  There was one individual who looked me and said, “You’re not one of those DOOM & GLOOMERS are you?”  I looked back and responded by saying, “If I had a choice, I’d rather be a well prepared Doom & Gloomer than a flattened pancake that waited until the last minute.”  I did hear someone laugh, but I decided to finish my tea and make my exit.

As I drove home, I realized this term would become my new response… whether or not the individual knew what I was talking about or not.  It would be my inside joke.  When I later told my wife, we both had a good laugh.

THE ELEPHANT'S BACKSIDE NEEDS TO BE CONSTANTLY MANIPULATED

The strategy by the folks in charge of the pulling the strings in the GOVT & ECONOMY is to keep the public on focusing on the supposed nasty ZITS, while manipulating the elephant’s bum on a constant basis.  If we look at the chart below, we can see how successful this strategy has been when we consider the seemingly magical elevation of the U.S. Retirement Market while economic indicators disintegrate:

In the third quarter of 2011, the U.S Retirement Market stood at $17 trillion.  Within only a half a year, the total U.S. Retirement Market increased 11.1% to $18.9 trillion.  This was a wonderful accomplishment by the folks working the dials at the PPT – Plunge Protection Team.  However, not all the dials were turned higher.  If we look at the following GOLD & SILVER price changes from the same time period:

SILVER AVERAGE PRICE Q3 2011 = $38.79

SILVER AVERAGE PRICE Q1 2012 = $32.62

CHANGE IN PRICE = -16%

NET CHANGE COMPARED TO US RETIRMENT MARKET = -27%

GOLD AVERAGE PRICE Q3 2011 = $1700.17

GOLD AVERAGE PRICE Q1 2012 = $1690.84

CHANGE IN PRICE = -0.5%

NET CHANGE COMPARED TO US RETIREMENT MARKET = -16.5%

We can see that the PPT’s FLOW OF FUNDS found its way into the U.S. Retirement market while the precious metals declined in net value in comparison. 

Fortunately for the precious metals investors, the strategy of keeping the public focused on the superficial blemishes is starting to show cracks as further cases of fraud such as the PFG bankruptcy and the manipulation of the LIBOR become household words.  Those who think this will be 2008 all over again fail to comprehend that ALL ASSET CLASSES declined at that time.  Here we can see that there is an orchestrated effort to keep the public happy by inflating Retirement Accounts while deflating commodities and precious metals.

Furthermore, if we add up all the FAT on the elephants bum we can see that there is a great deal of DEBT masquerading as WEALTH.  If we look at the next graphic, we can see that the total OUTSTANDING US TREASURIES are over $11 trillion:

Lets do some numbers:

TOTAL U.S. RETIREMENT MARKET = $18.9 Trillion

TOTAL OUTSTANDING US TREASURIES = $11.04 Trillion

TOTAL PAPER PONZI = $30 Trillion

Here is my chart from my article THE COMING PARADIGM SHIFT IN SILVER showing just how lopsided the Paper Ponzi Wealth is compared to precious metals:

As you can see this chart shows the US Retirement Market back when I wrote the article at only $17 trillion.  Just look how precious metals compares to US Retirement market.  Now, add the total US TREASURY's outstanding... and you can see oh what a bloody mess we have on our hands.

So… anytime anyone starts to talk about nonsense issues, you can blurt out “ZITS ON AN ELEPHANTS ARSE”.

Mickey's picture

Politics

Yesterday Bernanke "assured" us that he and the Fed are not politically driven. In Bill Murphys white is black and black is white world, this means something coming soon. Havign said that who the hell knows?

In reality we need to fund 1.5trillion of deficit per year. By definition qe is when the Fed has to buy treasuries if demand is insufficient, outside of when the primary dealers do not pick up the slack.

Since so much money has sought safe haven in US from Europe, there has been demand for treasuries, and of course dollars. 

When that demand tapers we get full qe.

Bernanke also quietly mentioned the ability to use words, aka MOPE.

Expect anything.

Mickey's picture

Furthermore

Debt is increasing at a faster amount than the deficit is increasing. Debt is increasing at a far faster rate than GDP is increasing. Spending is increasing at a faster rate than tax revenues are increasing sans the upcoming tax increases which will slow down the economy. 

This is one large FUBAR.

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