Getting Real Close

Monday, July 16, 2012 at 1:27 am

As we get set to begin a new week, I can't shake the feeling that we are getting real close. Close to finishing this basing pattern. Close to breaking higher. Close to an explosive move.

First, just a couple more items from FreedomFest. Friday morning I ran into Steve Moore of the Wall Street Journal. What a nice guy! I just walked up to him and struck up a conversation. Though he didn't know me from Sean Connery, we quickly hit it off and he has promised to come into Turdville for a podcast in August. Steve Forbes is an unbelievably nice guy, too. The guy's a billionaire yet he courteously took time to visit and pose with anyone who approached him. On the flip side...I'm walking out Friday, happy and relaxed. Not a cloud in the sky got the sun in my eye and then I see him...Prechter. Right in front of me, being interviewed by Reason TV. I wanted to freaking tackle him. Just bolt onto the "set" and barrel into him like I was a Free Safety. Lay him out like I was Jack Tatum and he was Darryl Stingley. Revenge for all the poor saps he's bilked out of subscription fees for all these years. I paused, considered my options and then moved on. He's not worth it. Not worth the trouble and not worth the hassle. That said, I really wanted to flatten the guy. Badly.

So, anyway, it's going to be a wild week. First of all, we've got the situation in Syria coming to a head. The next 48-72 hours look very volatile. Watch crude closely. Why, you ask? Remember that Syria and Iran are reasonably close allies. Any NATO move against Syria will likely generate some type of sympathy aggression from Iran. Maybe the mining of the Straits? We'll see. IF crude begins to move through $88 and then $90, then a move toward $100 will be imminent. Again, watch the headlines very closely.

And, boyohboy, is it hot as a firecracker in the U.S. heartland. Check out these two links. The first is a "drought monitor" from the University of Nebraska. Let the animation load and watch the progression. Yikes!

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/12_week.gif

And here's the next 8 days of computer weather models. The big circle that forms over the Midwest is a nasty, hot high pressure system that will bring scorching temperatures and dry weather to farm country. Got DAG?

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/javaanim.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfs&file=panel1&nplts=31&width=800&height=700

Which brings us to the metals. Last week's CoT reversed out nearly all of the Cartel shorting that was evident in the previous report. Though we remain mired in our 10-week consolidation bases, the time is rapidly approaching where price will catapult higher, break out and surge forward. First, read this from Trader Dan. As you know, I've gotten to know Dan quite well so I can assure you that he is NOT prone to KWN-type hyperbole. That said, please read and ponder this: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/14_An_Absolutely_Stunning_Development_In_The_Gold_Market.html.

It is simply a matter of time now before gold and silver break higher. Remain patient and please utilize this time to add to your physical stack. The ability of The Bullion Bank Cartel to manipulate price is being curtailed. The LIEbor scandal being simply the latest wound to their seeming invincibility. The Truth is on our side and we are winning.

Have a great Monday!

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Comments

@Xty

Submitted by Big Buffalo on July 16, 2012 - 12:16pm.

In my 20's, I was giving it away for free. . . .getting a canned ham would be considered a bonus.

Senseosensi,I like your

Submitted by Green Lantern on July 16, 2012 - 12:21pm.

Senseosensi,

I like your optimistic nature and I enjoy your line of questioning I am happy to entertain them.

3 million people show up at the White House vs the 82nd Airborne. Who wins? It kind of reminds of me Tianamen Square where at least 1/2 a million showed up and millions around the world watched one man, tank man, Hu Yaobang, step in front of a tank. Did it change their system of goverment? No. Did it make a difference. In my mind yes. That force still is present in China. And people want more which is one reason that there is a great deal of uprisings in China that never make the media. Coincidentally, 1989t was the same year that the Berlin Wall came down.

It all depends if the American soldiers decide that their government is insane and they keep their oath to uphold the constitution and protect the people and not their lords. Maybe talking to a young soldier or a police officer about his constitutional oath might be the level of change that all of his could carry out.

obviously that many people willing to take some action would certainly create a change of some kind. We would either go the way of complete military state or we would wake up enough people to resurrect liberty. Maybe a good start would be the Second Continental Congress. The only way we could avoid a complete collapse would be to repeal the fed, legal tender laws, debt currency, remove the judges, and the current pool of elected officials and start again. STILL, we would have to experience some sort of pain or austerity for decades for out of control spending. The debt has to be paid back.

On one hand, this is all fantasy and would make for a good hollywood script. However, funny things have happened in history. Like the signing of the Magna Carta probably the second greatest document on liberty after the US Constitution. The rebellious barons cornered the king and he was forced to sign it or go to a civil war. However, ten weeks later the Pope nullified the agreement and civil war happened anyway.

Then there is the fastest Jeep scenario which Richard Maybury has said could happen. This is how Castro got into power. During the Cuban Revolution, Batista had to get out of dodge. And apparantly Castro had the fastest jeep and he got to the captial building first. If One million angry people show up at the White House, Obama fears for his life, they get him in a helicopter and out of town, and hopefully the guy with the fastest jeep has liberty on his mind. Hopefully Obama takes his wife with him.

The more interesting part of your post is your optimism. I am optimistic too. I am optimistic that illusion which has ruled our civilization is now coming to the surface. The fall of the banking empire, decades of malinvestment, liberty being stripped away piece by piece. I actually welcome change. For change is the only thing that is certain in life. Yet, it is the thing that scares people the most. We fear the unknown of the future. I understand. And sometimes change isn't easy but the strong learn how to navigate it with some degree of mastery.

There are too many things in life that are out of our control, and if we worry about all of them we risk becoming neurotic or even psychotic. We can't control the fires in the west, the droughts, hurricanes, earthquakes much less others behaviors. What we can do is learn how to surrender it all, Live in the moment. Count our blessings and see how abundant we are. I'm not suggesting that there isn't alot of pain with people living pay check to pay check or without one, loosing houses etc... I'm suggesting that as the events unfold man made and otherwise, the universe is begging us to take on another perspective. Worry does not change anything.

At the end of the day, there are many people smarter than I saying that this country is ripe for another revolution and the conditions are present for that to happen. Not sure it will happen through combat with the military but it might happen through awareness of what's been done to us, and citizens taking back their rights. Allowing the banks and large insitutions to fail and society returning to a greater authenticity. Or it happens anyway and it gets very messy.

beardus "So you'd rather

Submitted by Kid Salami on July 16, 2012 - 12:32pm.

beardus

"So you'd rather starve to death?"

There aren't many things i'd rather do less than starve to death but framing the situation with a cartoonish "if you don't have a year of food you must want to starve to death" point of view is in fact the problem. There are other options.

"It is wise to have at least a year supply and the ability to grow your own food."

Your opinion. On the other hand, I believe that buying such an amount of food and spending time on land/education to grow your own food has a cost, one which should be weighed against other options which could be taken for the same cost, and if you truly believe you'll need a year of food before shelves are stocked again, you should be fleeing to another country as fast as your legs will allow.

"Maybe, given your scenario, people will have to live entirely on food storage and farms/gardens until things normalize."

People won't "have to live entirely on food storage and farms/gardens until things normalize" for the simple reason that they won't be able to live like this, because no'one has any food stored or gardens/minds ready to become farms/farmers in a heartbeat - that is my point, it isn't possible for everyone to start living like this unless some critical mass of people have prepared. i don't know what it is but we are n nowhere even close now, so a situation where you need a year of food will be chaos and the only solution is fleeing somewhere, not defending a pile of food in your attic like John Rambo.

Pining

"What I am saying is that the argument for only having 3-4 weeks because "anything beyond that means anarchy and none of us will survive" presupposes a knowledge of how things will play out that none of us can possibly have. It might go that way, but it very well might not. So personally, I want as many options as I can possibly have to take care of my family- the way I look at it, I am stacking options, in many forms, including knowledge and skill sets, while I have the chance. It seems the most prudent strategy, given imperfect knowledge. Just my 2 mercury dimes worth."

Certainly I don't know what's going to happen and I agree that a year of food and a garden gives you options. The questions is, what other options can you get for the money and time you spent on this? Spending the money on a plane ticket to a far away land that is less susceptible to whatever it is that leaves shelves empty for a year is I think a much better bet for the vast majority. Billionaires or people in a smallish, well guarded and close knit community can weather it out maybe, but in a city? With a year of food in the basement while things are so bad that there's is no running water and no garbage collection? Forget it.

(I'm not saying I think it's going to become Mad Max by the way - I really don't know - I'm saying that people buying a year of food are implicitly assuming things are getting bad but are in fact preparing for this eventuality in a poor way).

...and got my first cucumber

Submitted by Bollocks on July 16, 2012 - 12:38pm.

SORTED!

@Ivars

Submitted by Short Stack on July 16, 2012 - 12:39pm.

So are there ways that really work not only for small part of society hoarding PMs, food and building forts,

Building Forts ? And here I was trying to keep that idea to myself !

I can just picture the world of tomorrow. The human population once more goes through a Period of people living and working for the landowners. Not all landowners today, just those who are wise enough to stockpile (governments stockpile, people hoard, go figure.) gold and silver to restart local economies and have land to, plant and harvest food, graze herds, etc.

A Period where Land Barons (we and our descendants?) Rule their own lands and make their own Laws. (is not a man's home his castle ?)

I see a time when solar flares make electricity impractical, man gets around by horse and buggy (now there's something to invest in) and everyone burns wood and coal to cook and keep warm in winter. And no one is coming around bitching about how terrible we all are for polluting smoke in the air while they smoke on their pot-pipes and day-dream about the Utopia that could never be.

Keep stackin'.

US Navy ship 'fires on boat in Gulf'

Submitted by Bollocks on July 16, 2012 - 12:43pm.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18862480

cripes.

Food

Submitted by Loud Noises on July 16, 2012 - 12:58pm.

Just wanted to chime in to point out that any proper food storage program advocates that you eat what you store and rotate your stocks. That means that over time, the cost of food storage is zero. In reality, you usually end up saving money. This does assume that you are not paying extra for the space required.

I tend to be less philosophical on this issue and more practical... it is so easy to find historical data and modern anecdotes where a large amount of food storage proved to be very valuable. As a result, I stock up as much as I can. A year of stored food is not just for Mad Max and social chaos. It means being able to limit grocery spending during a job loss. It means charity to give and actually HELP your starving neighbors. Worst (or best) case, it just means a nicely planned, balanced diet and occasional trips to donate at the local food bank.

When you take a wider perspective, I think it becomes clear that "as much as you can afford and have space to store" becomes the right answer.

As a long time prepper...

Submitted by DaddyO on July 16, 2012 - 1:02pm.

I would offer this perspective...

I started prepping for the proverbial collapse of Y2K. While I was not sure of the degree of trouble that lay ahead, I knew there were distinct possibilities. I worked at the Kennedy Space Center at the time, and all the IT wonks were sure the end was upon us. As it turned out the non-event which took billions to resolve, was a bust from a prep stand point. I labored on with my preps as I kinda enjoyed the challenge.

Over the years I have continued to be prepared and it has become a way of life for me and my wife. Our children understand the why, they're just not convinced of the when and they are now all grown and in college. It's funny though to watch how their attitudes were shaped growing up in a prepper household and how it has carried on into their adult lives. They do some things without even knowing it is because of the prepper mindset, it was just the way we did it at home.

Living in a hurricane prone area has also contributed to our lifestyle choices. It is quite disturbing to read DHS literature outlining my lifestyle as a possible threat to the greater good, yet the FEMA website and FL EM websites clearly instruct us to be prepared to live without power and .gov support after a storm event, schizophrenic me thinks.

After FL was hit with 3 major hurricanes in 3 weeks, we lived quite normally with the exception of running a genset to power the well. We even fed the neighbors for the 1st week of no power. We had no power for about 24 days, we managed well. All the neighbors pitched in and provided security and we had no looting issues, as it was very clear by a posted sign at the end of the road that miscreants would be hastily dispatched.

We have become quite adept at storing things we need and our pantry has become part of the normal prep food rotation. We eat what we store. We don't just have stuff put away gathering dust. If the world went to hell in hand basket tomorrow, we would know it but it wouldn't affect our daily lives too much. Our plan in place would only provide for increased security and the like. This is how my grandparents lived, they ate all they could out of the garden and canned what they couldn't eat, a bountiful harvest I might add.

We live in a rural area and have like minded neighbors, we don't tolerate criminal non sense and have a local law enforcement that backs us, although our sheriff is retiring this election cycle and we have to see how his replacement behaves. We had some crack heads living in a neighboring home after the owner had passed on. These dope heads started to cause some grief in the area and one day while working in the front pasture on a broken fence, a deputy had been dispatched to the offending house for some reason. After a while watching the deputy try and talk some sense into these idiots, she finally backed out and pulled down my driveway. The deputy asked me if the dope heads had been causing us and grief and told us if we felt threatened to use what ever force we thought necessary. Her only caution was to tell us that if we dispatched these dirt bags to make sure we told the arriving deputy that we were in fear for our lives and they would take care of the paperwork. Your locale may be different so make sure you know your law and lawman before taking such final action.

As far as not being able to eat my PM's, I think along these lines. I have varied metals and forms there of. I have wealth preservation and barter type scenarios well covered. I'm pretty well split on gold and silver and think if things start to go south and the flag goes up hard, I'll be able to ride along and adapt to the changing tides. 'nuff said!

Just remember, it is always better to be months ahead of the prepper curve than 1 day behind.

DaddyO

Well said Loud Noises. I

Submitted by TerrorTed on July 16, 2012 - 1:05pm.

Well said Loud Noises.

I currently have a years food in stock. I eat 90% of the time out of my 'deep larder' and I replenish it faster that it gets used. It works as a buffer in exactly the way you describe.

Storing food also saves money

Submitted by Xty on July 16, 2012 - 1:23pm.

I find that we shop less often, now that we have a deeper larder. Not only can you stock up when things are cheap, you just shop less frequently I find. Out for veggies and dairy, but fewer trips to the larger grocery store or box store. And nothing like a good cheap dinner of soup and toast - stretches out the 'income' - which is currently an 'outgo'.

(No subject)

Submitted by Dr G on July 16, 2012 - 1:29pm.

I'm afraid I fail to see the point of storing a year's worth of food - 3-4 weeks yes, but a year?

We have a year's supply of food. My wife and I used a portion of it last year (4 months worth) to assist a neighbor's family when he was laid off and unable to find employment. This allowed us to help them while keeping the bulk of our own food storage intact.

It isn't all about ourselves. Sometimes we do things so you can help others as well.

It has also been a good investment as the prices of most staples are continually rising.

@Gramps & Keg

Submitted by Roark on July 16, 2012 - 1:30pm.

We are completely diesel-backed and routinely go "off-the-grid" for several days a year. Both of our properties are each backed by a 20KW genset with 100 gal basetank. My office has an 80KW Baldor diesel with a 175 gal basetank. So we are pretty well acquainted with the whole Diesel Deal. :)

Out here, gasoline wouldn't be a good option for us. Storage of that kind of flammable fuel is problematic and dangerous. So we only use the little gas portables (5KW) to power our tools while playing with cattle, fences, or as a deep backup source in the event a diesel set would fail. But not for any serious or long-term power.

I'm tellin' ya, once you've gone diesel, you'll be spoiled. I sure am. :)

We find diesel fuel stores pretty well. Get it all at once, from the same supplier, and treat it properly and store it correctly. Having done this you can count on it being fresh for at least a year, with a lot longer period not uncommon. I have used 3 year old fuel with no problems, but don't suggest this unless you stock lotsa filter elements as it gets pretty "wet". Ideally, store only what you will burn in a year, or make arrangements with someone who has BIG diesels to take the fuel off your hand at the 1 year mark so you can cycle it through and get some fresh stuff.

We store diesel in bulk, keeping about 500 gals on-site, and we have no trouble burning through it all in just a year (trucks, equipment, generators, etc). The gennys alone will burn through their basetanks in the course of a year just due to the "normal" grid outages here. If we need more, there is the bulk tank, and my truck is setup with a 100 gal transfer tank and pump to move it all around. Very useful!

When we are off the grid, we burn about 15 gals/day per site. This is with no conservation at all. This is pushing a 5 ton AC unit set to 76F, an electric clothes dryer, a 2 hp well, a 1 hp sewer system, lights, fans, computers and video games (yeah... I know) and full interior and exterior lighting. This level of support on gasoline would require about 25+ gals/day.

If you can manage it financially, I definitely recommend you install a permanent diesel with an automatic transfer switch and autostart capability. Turning at just 1800 rpm, they have a useful service life between 7500 and 10,000 hours (compared to about 200 to 400 hours for a standard air-cooled gasoline genny turning at 3600 rpm). All you need for care and feeding is to change the oil and filter every 300 hours, knock the dustbunnies out of the air filter, and feed them clean, treated diesel. Every 1000 hours or so we check valve clearances, but haven't ever had to change them. And they are QUIET compared to the racket of a portable.

Nalco makes a really wonderful fuel additive that kicks the bejeepers out of anything trying to grow in your fuel. (Toxic as hell too, so don't get it on you). We also add PowerService DieselKleel (gray bottle) at 32 oz per 100 gals. This makes about a 3-4% difference in fuel economy. Combined with synthetic oil, we have seen burn rates as low as 12 gal/day. Not too shabby!

Parting shot: I have a special needs kid who won't survive long without power. So while my setup may be viewed as overkill by many folks, failure just isn't an option for us. Once you see with total clarity what a lack of power will do, you get instantly serious about never losing it. Ever. So smart preppers should also investigate solar and other "long-term" means of support if this sort of thing is important to you. You can never have too many fallback positions. :)

If you're in Texas, drop me a line and I'd be happy to show you the basics of a diesel system. A picture is worth a thousand words.

Love the prepping talk. Last

Submitted by Dr G on July 16, 2012 - 1:38pm.

Love the prepping talk. @Roark, great post. Nice setup.

Last week I posted about the completion of the water wheel that the family had been building for the past 4 years. We fabricated everything ourselves and finally got it set into place and running 2 weeks ago. This will allows us to get off the grid without the use of any fuels. The water flows year round.

Here is that post for those that are interested in a couple more details and didn't see it:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/187652#comment-187652

Nice

Submitted by Istack on July 16, 2012 - 1:46pm.

I have never been more jealous of a water wheel than today. She's a beaut!

Biblical regarding how long to prep for.

Submitted by Short Stack on July 16, 2012 - 1:47pm.

Those who have not yet done so, please take a gander at Revelation Chapter 11 verses 3-13 refer to two WITNESSES who will have power to control some things on the earth, including shutting up the sky so that no rain may fall for 1260 days.

That works out to about three and a half years. Then of course crops will take a few more months to grow and bear fruit (beans, tomatoes, etc.)

Of course the population will have decreased dramatically by then.

More food and PM's for me and mine, I think.

Doc G !

Submitted by Pining 4 the Fjords on July 16, 2012 - 1:53pm.

The power source for your empire- you, sir, are budding post-apocalyptic warlord. All Hail The Humongous!

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQkXIkTern7wxysecyz91e

@Dr G

Submitted by Dagney Taggart on July 16, 2012 - 1:55pm.

You control the watershed I hope.

@TT

Submitted by Dagney Taggart on July 16, 2012 - 1:56pm.

Is that how much food you think you need? If so, triple it.

Great info Roark!

Submitted by Gramp on July 16, 2012 - 1:59pm.

Hey, thanks Roark, that is all very good first hand info!

Didn't mean to drift from TF's post topics, but it's not really if The U.S. is facing the dismal harvests that are being called for. Plus why be vulnerable? It is such a confidence boost to have SOME form of emergency food/ energy/ water. That stuff on the News, that happens to 'other' people... well , it happens, question is... who's next?

Pining, thanks. It's a

Submitted by Dr G on July 16, 2012 - 1:59pm.

Pining, thanks. It's a beautiful wheel. You should hear it spin. Just memorizing and relaxing. I still cannot fathom that there is no energy (that we have to pay for!!) being used to make it spin. It just does. It's at my in-laws home, the place where we will all gather if TSHTF. 150 acres. Lots of fishing and hunting. Would be fun, for a period, then I'm sure, not so fun.

I'm SO glad we are having these discussions here. To be honest, both metals have been completely and utterly boring to me the past month. A real snoozefest. This stuff and sharing ideas is exciting.

Great discussion today

Submitted by Senseosensei on July 16, 2012 - 2:02pm.

Loads of feedback to chew on, and i will.

Anyone watching the bond

Submitted by zman on July 16, 2012 - 2:05pm.

Anyone watching the bond market yields today? 2 year at .23%, could it turned negative at some point?

And I think a new low on the 10 year at 1.45%, getting closer to Willie's call of 1%.

Food Storage

Submitted by Istack on July 16, 2012 - 2:11pm.

I purchased about a year supply for six people about 14 years ago (y2k prep). Alot of it is still good. Some i'm not so sure about.

I also stored around 600 gallons of water. Will anything bad happen to me if i drink some water that has been sitting in a sealed jug for 14 years?

Water wheel, such a beauty!

Submitted by DaddyO on July 16, 2012 - 2:14pm.

Doc G, she is a beauty!!

Please post some more pics as they become available!

I would love to see an alternator/generator hitched up and churning out lots o' KW's.

I closed my eyes and pictured my ultimate work shop with a line shaft running down the middle and all my mills, lathes and such ready at my command! Awesome!!

Now if I could just convince the county to let me build one in the drainage ditch that runs along the front pasture.

DaddyO

Wow, there's still people

Submitted by XenoFrog on July 16, 2012 - 2:23pm.

Wow, there's still people holding the lantern for bitcoins?

I thought all the smart money got out when they were $29 apiece. The less smart people got out when the largest pusher of bitcoins was exposed as a kiddy diddler who wanted to hold a bitcoin event in the child-fucking capital of the world.

Everything is Manipulated!

Submitted by mendolover on July 16, 2012 - 2:27pm.

Including the weather!

Oil

Submitted by Big Buffalo on July 16, 2012 - 2:30pm.

UCO: up about $0.50 since the news of the first firing in the gulf. Let's see where this goes. (Politically: perfect timing for BO, don't you think?)

Doc G and The Wheel = FANTASTIC!

I've been telling my wife I wanted to get some land and build such a wheel for "free" energy. The earth provides it at no cost, and it doesn't cause any issues for fish migration in the stream/creek. Unfortunately we will not be moving anytime soon and will need to figure out another type of free energy source. Man, it sure is sunny outside. Back to energy, where can I get free energy?