Greetings From FreedomFest

As part of my "vacation", I've spent the last two days at "FreedomFest" in Vegas. It has been terrific.

FreedomFest is a 3-day conference revolving around libertarianism and Austrian economics. Yep...right up my alley. And it was in Vegas! Also, right up my alley.

In the past two days, I've met with Ranting Andy and Mike Krieger. I've been interviewed by Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network  and I've made the acquaintance of Rick Rule of Sprott and Pat Heller of Liberty Coin Service. All of this was very cool.

However, the main thrill was yesterday. I attended a small luncheon where Steve Forbes introduced The Judge. Judge Napolitano went on to speak to the group for about 30 minutes and then field questions. I got my picture taken with him and he also gave me his business card. I hope to finally schedule that podcast that I've been dreaming about! Again, very cool. The Judge then gave a 45 minute speech to the entire convention. He's just awesome. Great stuff.

Great stuff in the metals today, too. The Big Bad Wolves huffed and puffed again yesterday but once again failed to bring the house down. Santa was right in two fronts: One, they attacked and two, they failed. By no means are we out of the woods yet but nothing too scary, either. Gold remains firmly within it's 10-week basing and bottoming range of 1535-1635. Silver, too, is still in its 27-29 range. The good part of these ranges is this: Once we break out and UP...and we will...it will be clear to absolutely everyone with half a brain that the metals have bottomed. The shorts will either get frightened or squeezed and prices will move up rather quickly. Just be ready.

Two interesting news items I found while surfing with my phone this morning. First, this link to ZH. You should check it out. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-gold-collateral-and-its-unsurprising-london-based-custodian

And then, while at ZH, I saw that Swiss 2-year note is now yielding negative .43%. NEGATIVE POINT FOUR THREE PERCENT! The Germans are also getting in the act as their 2-year is now -0.05%. This is truly incredible. On a hypothetical new issue, for a 1,000,000 franc, Swiss 2-year note, you would have to pay the Swiss government about 10,000 francs for the privilege. Are you freaking kidding me? You've heard me mention ad nauseam how negative, real rates are extraordinarily bullish for gold. How about just plain, old negative rates?? Holy Toledo! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/swiss-2y-rates-plunge-43bps-all-trust-lost

Lastly, as we continue on our trip down Memory Lane, perhaps today would be a good day to review this idea of negative real interest rates. I wrote this piece back on 2/1/12 and today is as good a time as any to go back and review it. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

OK, that's all. I have to head to the airport soon so I better wrap this up. Please check back later today though as I plan to update this thread with thoughts on the CoT, once it's out. I probably won't be able to do it until this evening, however. It should be an interesting report. For the reporting week, gold was down $42 while total OI rose by 2000 or so. Silver was down $1.40 and saw its total OI climb by 1400. 

Have a great weekend!

TF

Comments

WhyMeLord's picture

@ClinkKY

Yeah, don't ever forget it.

We were so sure there was going to be a revolution.

Still waiting...

treefrog's picture

jesus a muslim?

"muslim" is an arabic word meaning "a servant (slave?) of god" or "one who submits to god's will."

it would not be hard to argue that jesus submitted to god's will, thus, was a muslim.

  ...but, most people are in the habit of using words without much concern about what they mean.  the arabic word "muslim" was in existence well before mohammed came on the scene.

when most people hear "jesus was a muslim," they think it means "jesus was a follower of the religion of mohammed,"  which he was not.  never mind any religious considerations, the chronology does not permit it.  that isn't what it means.  it means "jesus was a  servant of god."

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

ZZ Top - Waitin' for the Bus/Jesus Just Left Chicago

The crime got to be a little too much...

5204602492_1878e6a4d3.jpg

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

A gift from Santa Jim

...just arrived in my e-mail.

Thanks Santa!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My Dear Extended Family,

I will expand on this over the summer, but as an introduction:

1. Economics are not weekly and monthly statistics. It is comprised of motion and change that determines the trend.

2. The effect of economic actions is not a static amount, for example QE in some determined period of time, but rather an inescapable cumulative impact due to the rate of change. Each event of stimulation requires greater effort than the previous.

3. Economic activity is either increasing at an increasing rate or it is decelerating and an increasing rate. There are no Plateaus of Prosperity or Goldilocks Economics other than in the minds of spin doctors.

4. Debt has come home to be confronted here and now. There is no normal business means of accomplishing this.

The conclusion to be outlined in many ways over the summer is clearly the Western world finance is in deep trouble. QE to infinity is the only political tool that can kick the can. Gold will trade at and above $3500 regardless of all the previous attempts to manipulate it.

Cash market buyers will prevent all attempts to color gold otherwise.

Respectfully,
Jim

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Dagney Taggart's picture

@Clink and Why

Revolution? You were so close to stopping the BS the world is suffering. It all ended when the Boomers got bought off by the illusion of prosperity known as inflation and cheap fiat money.

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

Black

balz's picture

to Colonel Angus

Get real : comparing Marx and Aristotle to Rand is an insult to the first two. Rand contribued nothing. Reading Rand is a waste of time. I have read all those. Who cares ? Libertarians are people who don't understand what it is to live in society. Libertarians live an utopia : the only time when libertarian came close to reality was in the Darkest Ages after the fall of the Roman empire. And maybe at the start of the Industrial Revolution, when people died at 26 in mines. Libertarians lead to anarchy and anarchy to chaos, violence, and tyranny. Calling "Freedom Fest" a meeting of toasted heads who crave for guns and compare Obama to Hitler because Obama wants everyone to be able to get medical care is only showing how disgusting those libertarians are.

I am a stacker. I am a stacker because I see that capitalism, once again, has failed. Capitalism always fail. Production, overproduction, crise. Wash, rinse, repeat. And this time it is worse because of Peak Oil and falling EROI. But still a capitalist crisis.

You don't build society with libertarians. You build anarchy and violence, tyranny with libertarians. Freedom is always collective. It's the social contract. Yes, you have to give some of your freedom in exchange for a greatest freedom, that is, the right to live somewhere where you don't get your head chopped off in the streets for no reason. Libertarians, refusing to give away any freedom, are killing freedom ; they are like kids who don't understand that they need to care for others and that when you care for others others will care for you.

So sorry, but I think Turd should stick on metals. As much as keynianism is not perfect, as much as socialism is not perfect either, capitalism to the extreme would only make things worse. This is a crisis of capitalism. Same thing as always. Nothing different as it always was. Libertarians, by pretending we don't live in capitalism (hahaha) are not only making fools of themselves but they are insulting anyone who is sane enough to understand what is capitalism, what is socialism, and how a good society should avoid any extreme, including communism or libertarians.

The laws voted by people we elect make us free.
Less law do not mean we are more free.
More law do not mean we are less free.
Laws are right when they are voted for the people and if a law must restrict a libertarian sorry ass individual liberty for the benefit of everyone else, then this is not tyranny, this is the freedom of the majority and God bless that law.

tmosley's picture

balz

You are critiquing anarchism, not libertarianism.  However, as an anarcho-capitalist, let me respond.

You claim that force is required for society to function.  This is true.  What I don't understand is why you think that force has to come from the barrel of a gun.  Did you ever take a cruise?  Maybe go out into international water?  Did you know that you weren't subject to the laws of a nation-state while you were out there?  So tell me, why don't the passengers just tear each other to bits?  I mean, with the hundreds of people there, there must be at least a few of these bad people that you need government guns to protect you from.  Why no mass murders on the open seas?

This (and numerous other examples of non-coercive interaction) disproves your thesis, and all descendent arguments.  Have a nice evening knowing that your neighbor doesn't come through your window and murder you in the night not because he is afraid of government guns, but because A. he doesn't want to hurt you or anyone else really, and B. even if he did, the force of societal norms prevents him from doing so, and perhaps most importantly C. there is a real chance that he would be killed either in the attempt or afterwards by a family member or someone else seeking justice. 

Or did you think that human nature would just totally change when the already widely invisible and mostly worthless government disappeared?

tmosley's picture

balz:  What effect does a law

balz:  What effect does a law have if it doesn't make us less free?  If it didn't make us less free, then you could do anything you could before that law was passed.  This is a tautology.  Your thinking is twisted, so your conclusions are twisted.

Typical sheep, with a side of loudmouthed indignation at the ideas of others.

ClinkinKY's picture

@ Dagn(e)y

I'm leaving it up to you. Good luck.

I was simply sincerely thanking WhyMeLord for taking me back to a more pleasant (albeit) younger time.

Sometimes a good tune is just that.wink

Dagney Taggart's picture

@tmosley

Or you could have just said "moral compass". Ouch.

I wonder if balz is drunk. That was a strange and excellent rant.

Dagney Taggart's picture

@Clink

I'm a late boomer and it's covered.

Bohemian's picture

Something different, for FreedomFest:

ivars's picture

GSR moving sideways. So far,

GSR moving sideways. So far, that is good for silver.

Implosion of society /collapse happens not only because marginal returns in energy declines after initial period and get negative during collapse, but in everything done in societies /civilizations as they get more complex in a response to variations with aim to maintain/improve some parameters of life, has declining marginal returns after some point where all low hanging fruits has been exploited. When collapse starts , marginal returns turn negative.  See Joseph A. Tainter, "The collapse of Complex societies". 

http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Archaeology/dp/052138673X

Recommended reading, not pleasant conclusions, but simplification/disintegration/autonomy  is one of potential solutions in the midst of potential wars and total civic chaos. Not guaranteed, though,as also this way of survival in today's world immediately leads to complexity as it needs to be protected, organized and its not obvious that marginal returns of investments/activities made will not start to decline again ( after colossal decline in life style , access to medicine , education  etc., shortening of life span, need for organized protections, laws, internal order etc. ). Basically a huge step back - OR, temporarily, a bigger empire with even more complexity , but at first moment improving returns by centralization of resources and administration.

Louie's picture

intrade?

So am I completely insane for thinking about making some intrade predictions on the upcoming US presidential elections?  Anyone else here ever "trade" with them?  Is there a forum for intrade?   

What could go wrong?  Putting money on deposit in the National Irish Bank?  I would be out in 90 days, right?  Easy money, right?     

El Gordo's picture

Louie

You go ahead and go with the National Irish Bank.  I'm going all in on the Texas Lotto since I think it's probably safer and has better odds of getting my money back.

opticsguy's picture

@ivars

One of the downsides of complexity is the amount of energy required to maintain it, whether it's human energy or fossil fuels.  The "energy" required to implement Obamacare, for instance, is greater than our society can generate.  In other words, we may not be able to hire and train enough beaurocrats to implement the law as it is written (or it may take 20 years).  Dodd-Frank is the same thing.  No 2000-page legislation can be effectively implemented by any government in less than a generation.

On the topic of Marx, I doubt that he could have forseen LBJ's Great Society, where the governement would literally pay people to have children, not execting them ever to do anything except reach voting age and have children of their own.  With this third class (not proletariat, because they don't labor, and certainly not owners of capital) they dynamic of Marxism/Leninism can never play out (actually, I think Lenin would have had everyone that couldn't carry a shovel or a rifle shot). 

Come on Krugman, give us a new economic theory that explains what to do with 40 million people that may never work again.

Louie's picture

El Gordo- Texas Lotto

Going for the short-term high risk municipal market eh?

Roark's picture

@El Gordo

Wait. You mean the Lotto ticket I just bought isnt a winner? But the indian gentleman who sold it to me said we are all winners!

There should be a law against that. (((ducking)))

I Run Bartertown's picture

opticsguy

"Come on Krugman, give us a new economic theory that explains what to do with 40 million people that may never work again."

LOL. I love how they always fabricate complexity on this topic. For example, if you protect the borders no one will pick the fruit... it's an unsolvable conundrum...

Oh yes, they most certainly will, if you eliminate welfare and work becomes the means by which they eat. And picking fruit is tiring...less energy for destructive activities.

A win/win.

Edit - I realized I inadvertently perpetuated the myth that the only jobs taken are fruit-picking. This is absurd, as anyone can tell you who used to do landscaping, or used to do carpentry, or used to install carpet, or used to do masonry, etc. My sincerest apologies to those forced into a low-end service economy for the benefit of Chamber of Commerce repubs, and vote smuggling dems.

Xty's picture

Gooood Morning, TFMR

Well, I turn my back on the metals for a month and what happens?  Nada.  Things got a bit topsy turvy in the old Xty household, but the fires have been extinguished, or at least dampened, and the lemonade we are making from the lemons ain't so bad.

Missed you all (almost) and am back to watch gold go back over 1600 and f'n stay there.

There have been some great podcasts by my favourite Austrian economics professor, and this one I enjoyed in particular:

.

Zingales on Capitalism and Crony

Capitalism

Luigi Zingales

Hosted by Russ Roberts

Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago and author of A Capitalism for the People talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the ideas in his book. Zingales argues that the financial sector has used its political power to enhance the size of the sector and the compensations executives receive. This is symptomatic of a larger problem where special interests steer resources and favors based on their political influence. Zingales argues for a capitalism for the people rather than a capitalism for cronies or the politically powerful. The conversation concludes with a plea by Zingales to his fellow economists to speak out against behavior that is legal but immoral--lobbying Congress for special treatment that exploits others to benefit one's own industry, for example.

.

​Link:

Zingales on Capitalism

.

The whole site is worth exploring.

Xty's picture

re lottery tickets

We have a lotto 649 ticket that is going to make us fabulously rich, once we figure out how to use it.  Hubby bought it on a whim, and we honestly don't understand it, and the instructions on the back require an electron microscope to read.  So we are just going to keep it, and know we will be fine.  Schroedinger's lotto ticket - our terrible retirement plan.

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

My favorite pirate lady...

And a big gooood morning back at ya' smiley

So nice to see you!

Colonel Angus's picture

balz, once again

You are Krugman. It's just as simple as that. If I have to be Ayn Rand, then you must be Krugman, but not for economic theories. You are Krugman because you are smug and know so much more than anyone else. I don't think yours was a drunk rant. Since French is my second language, I believe it must be your first language and you just wrote from the bottom of your heart what you truly believe without stopping to recheck the English. No big deal as we can all follow your points.

Look, I have read a lot of crap. Marx had some great ideas, as did Aristotle. You don't mention Berlin in your critique. You know, "freedom from" and "freedom to". We all give up our freedoms willingly for a little bit of security. (There's a Benjamin Franklin quote about that, but we won't go there.) That's Rousseau. We don't want life to be "nasty, brutish, and short." We just don't believe the government needs to be in health care, nor does it really have a purpose in things like social norms like marriage. And keep the government way out of education,because that's where things start heading the wrong way. With a few exceptions, less government is better. Notice- WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. Don't lump us all together with your silly ideas. Rand had some interesting things to say, as did George Orwell, Walker Percy, and Ray Bradbury. None of them are crap.

We do not live with capitalism because prices are not free. Trade is not free. We have ridiculous restrictions like we cannot buy milk as it comes from a cow. Instead it has to go through government processes to be made safe for everyone. My children were at a 4-H camp this summer and we couldn't send homemade brownies (the good Ghirardelli ones) because there is a fear that we may not have the most sanitary conditions in our homes. We cannot even do good for our fellow humans because of asinine regulations. Tell me this makes sense. If you are French, then you know how good cheese from unpasteurized milk is. We cannot get it here. And don;t even get me started on why tobacco cigarettes and merlot are ok but marijuana is not. (And I have never partaken in the MaryJane, but it is a principle here.) Explain this to me Krugman's balz.

I'd love for us to actually try capitalism. I work in risk, helping with regulation, publishing a lot of stuff. The best idea to me is to heavily enforce that several risk measures be reported under the same model. Don't require they hold one risk measure's worth of reserve capital. Just require they report it. Let the individuals decide what is worthy of investment. And let crooks like Jamie Dimon go out of business by the rule of the many rather than by the rule of the few clueless ones at the AMF or SEC. Because the will of the people is better than the will of an oligarchy. Let us decide....not some crony capitalists who set things up to help out those who help them. This is what you are endorsing. I cannot find any sense in this.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Xty

"and the lemonade we are making from the lemons ain't so bad."

The secret to happiness, right there. yes

First, I thought we lost you to TTM. Then, for a brief moment, I thought you'd taken on an alternate personality (quickly realized I was mistaken). Then IS7 was kind enough to update us.

Welcome Back!

Xty's picture

Hey ho - Indigo!

Nice to see you too!  A somewhat involuntary hiatus, but my sense of humour is returning, and I have learned not to post when it is absent.

Eric Original's picture

Good Morning, Xty!!

Good Morning, Xty!!

Been missing you.  heart

Honestly, you haven't missed much on Main St, other than a recent turn toward a particularly angry and snarky sort of tone.   I wish I'd missed it as well.  frown  But, one can best rectify that situation by choosing to miss more and more  going forward.  

All we really need is for the metals to get back in gear, and a lot the grumpy gills will calm down around here, and it'll be OK to come back out on Main again.

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

Eminent domain in CA: clawback to create future revenue stream

JMHO.  I recall talking to CA Lawyer about this type of thing a year or so ago.

It's not exactly what I had laid out speculatively back then but it fits a pattern of Govt. home ownership/control that later will be parlayed into a brand new Govt backed mortgage (future revenue stream) on bank property that ended up in the Govt.'s hands that will one day revert back to bank controlled hands.

They win either way and the creation of new debt/mortgage commitment and the long term revenue stream  is what it's all about.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Bondholders See Eminent Domain as State Attack: Mortgages

Bond investors who will be needed to reduce taxpayers’ role in U.S. mortgage lending have a new reason to stay away: the threat of outright confiscation by local governments.

A plan under consideration in San Bernardino County, California, would use a local government’s eminent domain authority to confiscate and write down mortgages for borrowers who are underwater on their loans, meaning they owe more than their houses are worth. The plan would raise borrowing costs and deter private lenders from returning to the $10 trillion mortgage market, according to bond buyers such as Pacific Investment Management Co. and AllianceBernstein LP.

“If you know that the county in which you make a loan could force you to sell it for less than it’s worth if it goes underwater, then the rate you will charge, in a free market system, would be a lot higher,” said Mike Canter, head of securitized assets at New York-based AllianceBernstein, which oversees about $400 billion.

About 11.4 million American borrowers -- 24 percent of homeowners with a mortgage -- were underwater as of March 31, according to Corelogic Inc., with prices down 34 percent from their July 2006 peak. In San Bernardino County, about 150,000 homeowners or half of all houses with a mortgage are underwater and the area’s economic struggles helped push the city of San Bernardino, the county seat, to decide to file for bankruptcy protection.

Government Dominates

Private mortgage securities now fund less than 1 percent of new loans, down from more than a third before the housing market collapsed in 2007. The U.S. government currently backs about 90 percent of home loans...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-13/bondholders-see-eminent-domain-as-state-attack-mortgages.html

opticsguy's picture

@Bartertown

You should see the looks I get when I'm out trimming my hedges or replacing a sprinkler head in my front yard.  People will actually slow down and stare.  I believe some of these people are seeing a non-hispanic working on yard stuff for the first time.

Maybe Krugman can answer this.  Am I hurting the economy buy replacing my own sprinkler head and not paying some immigrants $75 to do it?

Tube's picture

welcome back XTY

Glad things are well with you and glad to have you back. 

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