Greetings From FreedomFest

As part of my "vacation", I've spent the last two days at "FreedomFest" in Vegas. It has been terrific.

FreedomFest is a 3-day conference revolving around libertarianism and Austrian economics. Yep...right up my alley. And it was in Vegas! Also, right up my alley.

In the past two days, I've met with Ranting Andy and Mike Krieger. I've been interviewed by Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network  and I've made the acquaintance of Rick Rule of Sprott and Pat Heller of Liberty Coin Service. All of this was very cool.

However, the main thrill was yesterday. I attended a small luncheon where Steve Forbes introduced The Judge. Judge Napolitano went on to speak to the group for about 30 minutes and then field questions. I got my picture taken with him and he also gave me his business card. I hope to finally schedule that podcast that I've been dreaming about! Again, very cool. The Judge then gave a 45 minute speech to the entire convention. He's just awesome. Great stuff.

Great stuff in the metals today, too. The Big Bad Wolves huffed and puffed again yesterday but once again failed to bring the house down. Santa was right in two fronts: One, they attacked and two, they failed. By no means are we out of the woods yet but nothing too scary, either. Gold remains firmly within it's 10-week basing and bottoming range of 1535-1635. Silver, too, is still in its 27-29 range. The good part of these ranges is this: Once we break out and UP...and we will...it will be clear to absolutely everyone with half a brain that the metals have bottomed. The shorts will either get frightened or squeezed and prices will move up rather quickly. Just be ready.

Two interesting news items I found while surfing with my phone this morning. First, this link to ZH. You should check it out. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-gold-collateral-and-its-unsurprising-london-based-custodian

And then, while at ZH, I saw that Swiss 2-year note is now yielding negative .43%. NEGATIVE POINT FOUR THREE PERCENT! The Germans are also getting in the act as their 2-year is now -0.05%. This is truly incredible. On a hypothetical new issue, for a 1,000,000 franc, Swiss 2-year note, you would have to pay the Swiss government about 10,000 francs for the privilege. Are you freaking kidding me? You've heard me mention ad nauseam how negative, real rates are extraordinarily bullish for gold. How about just plain, old negative rates?? Holy Toledo! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/swiss-2y-rates-plunge-43bps-all-trust-lost

Lastly, as we continue on our trip down Memory Lane, perhaps today would be a good day to review this idea of negative real interest rates. I wrote this piece back on 2/1/12 and today is as good a time as any to go back and review it. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

OK, that's all. I have to head to the airport soon so I better wrap this up. Please check back later today though as I plan to update this thread with thoughts on the CoT, once it's out. I probably won't be able to do it until this evening, however. It should be an interesting report. For the reporting week, gold was down $42 while total OI rose by 2000 or so. Silver was down $1.40 and saw its total OI climb by 1400. 

Have a great weekend!

TF

457 Comments

Dagney Taggart's picture

Yes.

Pailin's new hobby... Is that you, Turd?

bellyacre's picture

UNO

First! (not)  Thanks for sharing what happened in Vegas

ancientmoney's picture

Anything happen in Vegas that should . . .

stay in Vegas?

Dagney Taggart's picture

Prices fall, OI rise for Both Gold and Silver

Doesn't that mean markets are weak? You explained this some weeks ago, Turd. Were there caveats that I missed?

Keg's picture

Can anyone explain

Can anyone explain the logic behind buying a 2 year note with a negative interest rate?  I'm baffled by that one.  Why not just leave it in cash?

TrueBull's picture

Reminder

Missiondweller's picture

Negative interest rates

Seems we saw negative rates in 2008. Is this an indication of a financial system about to blow up or just another indication of the "Japanization" of Western markets into a long, drawn out depression?

Any insights from anyone?

Big Buffalo's picture

Repost from last thread.

 

I know this is a metals forum but guns are frequently discussed.  Have a look at SWHC. I made a few bucks from yesterday and (unfortunately) sold a bit early today. However, on a small pullback, this maybe a good play on gun bans, the ever increasing number of preppers, and so on. It's currently at $9.73. Personally, I have a buy at $9.00.

Just an added play to our gold and silver.

Dagney Taggart's picture

..

rem

TrueBull's picture

...the same fight

Missiondweller's picture

@Keg

I believe its a fear trade but also a result of the ECB not paying anything on deposits for their bank customer's excess reserves.

Kuchek's picture

I can only imagine ...

I can only imagine how awesome it must have been to visit w The Judge. Nothing restores my faith in humanity better than hanging with some Liberty minded individuals. I wonder how The Judge would be as the Attorney General? Good to have dreams that can become reality. :) Safe Travels Turd.

Dawg's picture

Fiat History #3

"Even as paper money was making it's debut in the colonies, barter remained the usual way to meet basic needs. Colonists traded food, household items and manufactured goods between themselves. Early bookkeeping records at Harvard University reveal that the tuition was often paid with produce, livestock, and the occasional family heirloom. Informal trading was the backbone of business. Colonial paper money could never completely displace barter.

           North Carolinians relied so much on barter that their legislature eventually published exchange rates for commodity money. Thus goods that could be traded were assigned values in relation to each other. In 1715 these included tobacco, corn, wheat, cheese, deerskins, tallow, leather, beaver, otter, wildcat skins, butter, feathers, tar, pitch, whale oil, beef and pork. The legislature added rice, hemp and turpentine in 1723.

           When certain commodities became standardized in trade, they were often represented in paper commodity notes. These were redeemable for specified goods on demand. Bills were easier to exchange rather than the cartloads of nails for example. Among the more famous was the beaver note, redeemable in beaver pelts.

           In much the same manner, paper gradually replace commodities as a way to pay taxes. For example, the first taxes in South Carolina were payable in rice. But this was not always practical. In 1719, South Carolina issued legal tender notes redeemable in rice. These "rice bills" were payable to the bearer at 30 schillings per hundredweight (112 pounds) of rice. The fact that barter was an inconvenient way to collect revenue and the fact that paper was received at a premium gave the notes a degree of legititimacy."

from: Fiat Paper Money - Ralph T. Foster  p. 100

Larry L's picture

The Silver Ladies...

...continue to buy this great opportunity of silver under $28.

Have a blessed weekend!

foggyroad's picture

Happy and relaxed

No matter how black or vast the cavern, it takes but one candle to shatter and penetrate the immense darkness.

You and The Judge are just such candles!

May many more join in, thanks TF

Regards;

foggy

tyberious's picture

Can anyone explain

The Central Banks want increase the velocity of money. The are trying to provide a disincentive to large depositors, with the thinking that the banks will seek higher returns by lending in to the economy. But the flaw is that the banks are all broke and really need the safety and security of .25 bp.

Good Luck to All!

waxybilldupp's picture

Art Cashin,

along with Bob Pisani, just might be the only two members of the CNBS circus who have any credibility.  Art has been hanging around the floor of the NYSE for about 40 years, so when he has something to say, it's often worth listening to.

About an hour ago, I heard Art say he thinks The Bernank will announce some form of QE3 next week.  The Bernank will be on stage doing his annual tap-dance Tuesday and Wednesday, I believe. 

Speaking of the Bernank and QE3, I follow the Yahoo message board for SLW.  Don't own SLW right now, but have in the past so still interested.  Earlier this week, one of the regular posters raised the question to the board, "With irates essentially at zero, what options does the FED have left for QE3?"  That question opened up a lengthy thread discussing possibilities.  Ultimately, the most common thought was to focus on housing and home mortgages.  There was no screaming, no profanity, no bashing involved as the thread played out for several days.  Yesterday, the Yahoo police removed the entire thread!  WTF?  I guess it's unacceptable to TPTB to discuss such matters.  Clearly, TPTB have their monkeys watching every freaking thing!  Just a random, but, perhaps interesting little anecdote.

WTF? (shaking head)

wax off

Colonel Angus's picture

LCS updates???

I'm having trouble sourcing junk silver at 20x face or in getting junk silver dollars at less than about $26 apiece. Anyone else having any luck? I'm wondering because of what this might tell us about the "little guy" demand vs. the COMEX paper price. About to have to go looking at the craigslist route, which is such a pain because of some of the flakes who try to sell there.

Anecdotes are appreciated.

jx07's picture

Judge Napolitano is the man

I must admit, out of all the people you've met so far in Vegas, I'm by far the most jealous that you met The Judge! I would have probably been smiling like a buffoon the whole time. Really hope you can schedule a podcast with him sometime! I would definitely be one of the first to tune into that.

http://www.miningstockvaluator.com

The Doc's picture

PFG Theft May Shut Down JB Slear & Fort Wealth

I'm beyond pissed.  These segregated client thefts affect REAL PEOPLE!!
Folks here know how MFG made off with Turd's cash.
PFG has done the same to JB Slear's Fort Wealth, he advised me this morning that all their funds are still frozen, and all of Fort Wealth's as well as his own personal positions were forcibly liquidated by Jefferies...get this...at a 33% haircut to the settling price for his contracts!!!  The client theft may likely completely bankrupt Fort Wealth.
Time to pull ALL PAPER WEALTH FROM THE SYSTEM AND PUT IT INTO PHYSICAL METALS IN YOUR OWN POSSESSION!!!

http://www.silverdoctors.com/jb-slear-on-pfg-losses-why-i-love-goldsilverintegrity-and-jim-sinclair/

Kuchek's picture

Happy 50th!

Just A Regular Guy's picture

Questions....

Hokay, so I don't post much, but I read most of the stuff u guys put up.

Recently I bought some shares in a few Australian miners and I somehow wound up looking for data on the Indonesian Mint.

From: http://goldbarsworldwide.com/PDF/NBA_45_LogamMuliaGoldBars.pdf

Down the VERY BOTTOM and I quote:

"THE INDUSTRY COLLECTION OF GOLD BARS WORLDWIDE
The Industry Collection of Gold Bars Worldwide is a worldwide effort to create a unique collection of standard, innovative
and unusual gold bars to support the promotion of gold.
Since 1993, manufacturers from across the globe have supported this international project by making their bars available.
The Founder was N.M. Rothschild & Sons (Australia) Limited, associated with N.M. Rothschild & Sons Limited, London. The
Custodian and Official Location is The Perth Mint, wholly owned by the Government of Western Australia.
The Curator is Grendon International Research Pty Ltd (GIR). Apart from acting as a consultant within the gold industry, GIR
has published several reference books on gold, including The Industry Catalogue of Gold Bars Worldwide."

Not that I really care if the Rothschild's are/have their fingers in the gold pie, but I thought there was a misconception that they were the paper/fiat masters? I guess some other family are the paper/fiat masters, and buy buying into Au/Ag we're on the Rothchild page/team???

I mean at the end of the day I understand what devaluation of fiat is/has done, and centrally planned governments have done etc. so if in the next few years gold is re-introduced to stabilize/fix the ponzi credit/debt/CDS/IRS/derivative crap I'm not too fussed. We're here to be/get ahead of the curve right?

On another note, if gold is money, and the miners pour bullion to be minted, how do the miners/mints get paid???? Who controls the miners/mints etc.????

P.S. How is that 10-yr doing???? BAD blush

P.P.S. Sounds like Mr.T.F. had a nice time! Enjoy Vegas sir and remember what goes on in Vegas stays in Vegas!

diegeiro's picture

I'm jealous

It takes a lot to get me jealous or envious, but Freedomfest, yeah! Hope you are having a great time!

bam's picture

@Just a regular guy

The Rothschilds very likely own more gold than any family in existence.    That's how you stay rich.   Then you can make loans against that gold and make lot's more money.   Families and businesses like the Rothschilds exploit the Fiat system to their advantage to be sure.  

This whole crisis is not going to over throw the Rothschild family.  It will only help them consolidate more wealth.   Crises are most beneficial to the rich, as real assets go on fire sale.

Gold isn't really currency (you are using money = to currency here which isn't quite true) intrinsically (despite what many claim).   It is monetary, as Bron is often wont to say.  It is a store of value.  Until you can pay your taxes in gold, it is not currency.  Taxes help determine what must be circulated.     Here's an interesting little primer of monetary history: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/13_A_Clash_Of_Two_Systems_On_A_Global_%26_Historic_Scale.html  

Nick Elway's picture

Audit The Fed

Campaign For Liberty is asking for Audit The Fed donations.

I donated.

http://www.campaignforliberty.org/

Admiral Ag Bar's picture

Just call me Admiral Kilo Coin

Just got a beautiful kilo Libertad from fellow Turdite Patriot Family.  Great transaction within our community!

4e21997b760c0-500x500.jpg

Not the actual photo.  I got so damn excited about this sexy coin, I took it on a kayaking trip and promptly lost it.  Will I ever learn?

I'm going to a coin show on Sunday.  I will post a report as soon as I get back from the show.

Thanks as always to Turd for providing such a cool place to hang out. 

dropout's picture

Negative Rates

@ keg & mission dweller

Flight to Safety. There is much fear in the global market place.

The Swiss franc has been under great pressure for some time now, hence their peg to the euro and pouring liquidity into the FX market to bring their currency under control from skyrocketing up.

Negative interest rates also accomplishes this. It is an attempt to dissuade the movement of foreign liquidity into the franc which forces a higher valuation, pricing their exports higher and out of the market. They do not want a higher franc. Remember, all the globes currencies are in a race to debase.

Recent news; Italian man caught with bars of gold bullion under the seat of his car, while attempting to cross the Swiss border. Swiss maintenance workers, trimming scrub brush near the German border, discovered bars of gold bullion wrapped in paper hidden at the base of a tree.

These are just the stories we hear about! How much more goes undetected?

The smart money is out of paper and into gold, silver and tangible physical assets. What we are witnessing is the first inkling by the masses, that maybe paper is not worth what they think it is! Get ahead of the rush before its too late.

MisesFan's picture

Rothbard on conspiracy theories...and

conspiracy analysts.

"

Far from being a paranoid or a determinist, the conspiracy analyst is a praxeologist; that is, he believes that people act purposively, that they make conscious choices to employ means in order to arrive at goals. Hence, if a steel tariff is passed, he assumes that the steel industry lobbied for it; if a public works project is created, he hypothesizes that it was promoted by an alliance of construction firms and unions who enjoyed public works contracts, and bureaucrats who expanded their jobs and incomes. It is the opponents of "conspiracy" analysis who profess to believe that all events – at least in government – are random and unplanned, and that therefore people do not engage in purposive choice and planning.

There are, of course, good conspiracy analysts and bad conspiracy analysts, just as there are good and bad historians or practitioners of any discipline. The bad conspiracy analyst tends to make two kinds of mistakes, which indeed leave him open to the Establishment charge of "paranoia." First, he stops with the cui bono; if measure A benefits X and Y, he simply concludes that therefore X and Y were responsible. He fails to realize that this is just a hypothesis, and must be verified by finding out whether or not X and Y really did so. (Perhaps the wackiest example of this was the British journalist Douglas Reed who, seeing that the result of Hitler's policies was the destruction of Germany, concluded, without further evidence, that therefore Hitler was a conscious agent of external forces who deliberately set out to ruin Germany.) Secondly, the bad conspiracy analyst seems to have a compulsion to wrap up all the conspiracies, all the bad guy power blocs, into one giant conspiracy. Instead of seeing that there are several power blocs trying to gain control of government, sometimes in conflict and sometimes in alliance, he has to assume – again without evidence – that a small group of men controls them all, and only seems to send them into conflict.

These reflections are prompted by the almost blatant fact – so blatant as to be remarked on by the major newsweeklies – that virtually the entire top leadership of the new Carter administration, from Carter and Mondale on down, are members of the small, semisecret Trilateral Commission, founded by David Rockefeller in 1973 to propose policies for the United States, Western Europe, and Japan, and/or members of the board of the Rockefeller Foundation. The rest are tied in with Atlanta corporate interests, and especially the Coca-Cola Company, Georgia's major corporation.

"

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard170.html

SRSrocco's picture

IN THE WORLD OF ENERGY....

THE PLOT THICKENS IN THE ENERGY MARKETS

I have to say, every passing day I wake up and the CRAP that I have to read or see on the BOOB TUBE just makes you wonder how we made it this long as a species.  As  you all realize, I have a passion for understanding energy.  I believe energy = money.  That is why I have the EROI ICON next to my screen name.  It means ENERGY RETURNED ON INVESTED.

The world is heading down a path of destruction and implosion.  Here is the simple truth shown in RATIOS:

1930 USA OIL EROI = 100 to 1

1970 USA OIL EROI = 30 to 1

2012 USA OIL EROI = 9-10 to 1

SHALE OIL = 4-5 to 1

TAR SANDS = 2-4 to 1

THE GREAT USA INFRASTRUCTURE BUILT on 25-30 to 1

---------------------------------------

People don't realize that in order to have our CONSUMPTION ECONOMY that we are in presently, we need an EROI of at least 15-20 to 1.  The destruction of wages and jobs were not just because our manufacturing was sent to CHINA, but also because our falling EROI could not support our MANUFACTURING-RETAIL economy.  By sending our manufacturing overseas, we were able to expand our SERVICE ECONOMY for another several decades.  Well, that time is coming to an end now that INDIA and CHINA are bidding for oil.

This was a piece from an article on OIL DEMAND:

Summary: consumption is flattish because of demand, not supply. Otherwise prices would be rising to destroy the excess of demand over supply (as it did in Spring 2008).

Here was a reply by Darwinian from THEOILDRUM.com:

We hit that plateau began in 2005, three years before prices destroyed demand in 2008. In other words we have been on a seven year plateau because of low oil prices. Here are average yearly Brent prices since 2001. Look at the average price before we hit the plateau in 2005, then the average price after we hit the plateau. Now someone tell me, with a straight face, that production has been flat because of low oil prices.



Here we can see that analysts are still putting out SERIOUS RUBBISH when it comes to important issues such as oil.   The price of BRENT CRUDE before we hit a world plateau of oil production in 2004 was $38.26.... currently the average price of Brent is $112.68 a barrel.  This turns out to be 3 TIMES the 2004 price.

When politicians talk about GROWTH, I can safely say, they are completely FOS... FULL OF SHEET.  You can't have growth without a growing oil supply or a high EROI as it pertains to an advanced civilization.

Our economy in the United States peaked several decades ago.  We have been living on BORROWED TIME, GAS FUMES and HUGE AMOUNTS OF DEBT.  Unfortunately, at some point in time the AMERICAN DREAM will come to and end.  Those who were wise and bought GOLD and SILVER bullion, will suffer much less.

I wish I had better news....

Wizard's picture

@Senseosensei From Last Thread

I was not arguing the point, Just pointing out in as much detail as I possibly could the futility of arguing with people that cant even see the markets are manipulated. let alone The Powers That Be controlling certain aspects of every day life

I in no way suggested giving up talking about these trying times in which we find ourselves or trying to help those that do understand a storm is coming.  Screaming and Arguing about an issue that most on this forum understand as common knowledge. Spreading the knowledge can only be done to people that choose to hear. I have been living this frustration for a little more than 6 years now. Arguing With Normalcy Bias Will Drive You Nuts. I have been there I was just trying to save you a little frustration.

The Rabbit Hole is very deep and only by sharing knowledge amongst those that want to learn is effective and efficient use of the time that is left.

You Are 100 % RIGHT This is way bigger than any one person. And I applaud you for pointing that out to people. I have taken it upon myself and purchased enough portable water filter systems to be able to provide up to 500 gallons day of clean drinking water for our entire small community for roughly a year to a year and a half. There is a good amount of deer and small game along with plenty of lakes and rivers within two miles to provide plenty of food. Plus what has already been put in storage by myself and one other in the neighborhood.

I often hear about taking care of ones family in a SHTF situation I very seldom hear what one would do if a neighbor came with a child that simply needed clean disease free water to drink. Just a thought I had a handful of years ago that I could not bear dealing with turning them away, So I Included them

W

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