Another Volatile Day Ahead?
As you go through the day today, keep in mind that the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 pm EDT. Recently, they been releasing "headlines" at 12:30, too, so stay sharp. The pattern of 2012 has been to sell PM whenever anything gets posted by The Fed or The Bernank. Therefore, be cautious.
What I hope to do while I attempt to take some down time is to rehash some "Greatest Hits". I plan to re-post daily a blog/thread from the archives, both from TFMR and ATW. We'll get to that in a moment but first...
Following along on yesterday's theme, the USDA issued a crop report earlier this morning and it was a doozy.
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046
If you don't want to pour through it, here's what ZH has to say:
And, of course, our own Grain Man "Art Lomax" is all over it, too. He's currently lurking in Pailin's Corner:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/188505#comment-188505
The weather in The Corn Belt is only forecast to deteriorate over the coming weeks and the heat wave is expected to begin anew next week. Yikes!
OK, so here is your re-post of the day. This one was originally filed at ATW back on 3/29/11. I must admit that the food price surge that I was writing about never quite materialized...yet. I was also incorrect in my theory that overt QE would continue past June. Regardless, it contains several points that are still relevant today. Namely:
- "Let's start with the grains because rising grain prices cause all sorts of inflation. Not only are grains the raw input to countless consumer goods, grains are also the primary foodstuff for cattle ranchers and hog finishers as they prepare their herds for slaughter."
- "OK, so how about corn? Corn is extremely important in food production as it is used not only as a primary ingredient but as a sweetener, as well."
- "Have you ever heard the term "corn-fed beef"? Most of the best steakhouses proudly champion corn-fed beef because, frankly, its tastes a helluva lot better than grass-fed. The high sugar content of the corn gets converted into fat. The fat makes its way into the muscle and you, Mr. Steakeater, get yourself a beautiful, marbled "prime" steak. Fat cows are also desirable at slaughter because, well, they weigh more and cattle are sold by the pound. OK, so now, pretend for a moment that you're a cattle rancher. As your cattle are growing and being prepared for market (the term is "finished"), you want to feed them as much corn as they'll eat and you can afford. Corn at $7.00/bushel really cramps your business plan. Your first reaction is to control costs by thinning your herd, i.e. you sell some prematurely, before they are "finished". You might also simply want to sell some of your herd to take advantage of today's high prices. Either way, this extra supply in the short term has actually worked to keep cattle prices from soaring at the same rate as the grains. But this is temporary. By this summer, supply will decrease as cattle that would have been coming to market just then have already been slaughtered."
Here's the full post. You'll likely enjoy reading the comments section, too:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/ag-commodities-and-coming-inflation.html
That's it for today. Have fun and stay alert.
TF
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Comments
Grass Fed
I actually like grass fed better - it has a stronger taste to it. Corn fed does have more fat in it, but the meat itself is kinda tasteless. Corn fed is definitely cheaper (for the moment).
To each his own, I guess.
Good show, Dyna-mo! I like
Good show, Dyna-mo! I like it when people are willing to get out there and make empirical observations. WIthout empiricism, you can never really be sure of anything.
Fed minutes
Used to be:
It's not the minutes themselves, but the reaction to them.
Now it's:
It's not the minutes but the manipulation shortly before them.
do not forget ethanol gas
keeping gas prices up
every time the govt gets involved in something it should not--it gets messed up.
dagney, re popcorn
"long popcorn"
there are lots of kinds of popcorn. i'm partial to "strawberry popcorn." not strawberry flavored, the ears look like two inch long strawberries. decorative, tastes great, easy to grow, good way to get kids interested in self sufficiency. what's not to like?
http://www.seedsavers.org/Details.aspx?itemNo=1195%28OG%29
Another goody in obamatax
I haven't done any research into this, so take it FWIW.
Obama Gets Civilian Army In Healthcare Bill
Barack Obama has apparently fulfilled his campaign wish of establishing a civilian army along with setting up Universal Healthcare in America.
Details of the civilian army were hidden in the voluminous Obamacare bill, which our Congressmen and Senators voted on but did not read.
http://askmarion.wordpress.com/2012/07/10/obama-gets-civilian-army-in-he...
Chapter 9 Municipal Bankruptcy
For many cities and towns their is no other way out, I am familiar with one town pop. 10,ooo with over 68 million in debt, its absolutely frightening, over time reluctant public officials will return to the dire reality of the situation and begin discharging their debts with the stroke of the pen, this despite what the pointy head legal minds in black robes happen to rule.
@Dyna mo hum
@Cal Law
Great stuff...thanks!
Life is good
Keep stacking !
@Exiledbear - grass fed
Not to mention that corn fed beef ground into hamburger is nothing but fat and grease. You cook that stuff on a grill and half your food disappears. Grass fed is much leaner (usually) and tastes better. My brother had his freezer go bonkers and spoiled hundreds of pounds of grass fed angus beef... he ended up replacing it with corn fed holstein beef (a steer fed in a feed lot) and he can't stand the meat. He's been giving it away left and right. Grass fed beef cattle are the best tasting meat you'll find I think.
@Patrancus
That sounds more like a problem for the idiots who loaned them the money than the town's problem.
Oops. Long-er popcorn.
Chris Hedges
@Jesse's Cafe American a great video presentation by Chris Hedges. Well worth the time to view!
T Mosley
Thanks all...... You folks can always count on me to interrupt a serious discussion.
'Gold pumping shill' Erste Bank full 2012 report on gold is out
... on ZH, of course.
Beyond the headline: "USD 2,000 is our next 12M price target. We believe that the parabolic trend phase is still ahead of us, and that our long-term price target of USD 2,300/ounce could be on the conservative side."
http://www.scribd.com/doc/99816519/Special-Report-Gold-2012-In-GOLD-We-TRUST
Some other tidbits from further inside the report -- lots of scenarios and data for 'mid-to-endgames' and 'fair value of gold':
“The amount of gold is finite by weight or volume, it is not finite by price”, John Butler
PS: As I scan through the report, it seems more and more like this is a document worth sharing (with anyone of moderate to slightly advanced knowledge of economics/finance or even any materials science) -- printing and 'snail-mail' to a select few who might be receptive is probably an even better idea.
The report quotes FOFOA on stock vs. flow, has thoughts on the impact of production rate changes & central bank buying, talks in detail about financial repression (ongoing and expected):
On East Asia:
Plus: the shift away from petrodollar, prospects of a freely convertible (and/or gold-backed) Chinese reserve currency, and more.
Must-read material for goldbugs and non-goldbugs alike -- makes for a great bedside/coffee-table/bathroom reading item.
Crazy Rigged
The market responds the instant it is released. Therefore no time to even digest the information.
Total MOPE
Never seen more BS than ever! Lies, Lies, and Damned Lies. All of it!
UN treaty
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/07/11/un-arms-treaty-could-put-us-gun-owners-in-foreign-sights-say-critics/ No need to be concerned with this mess. After all we can always count on the Supreme court to preserve our 2nd amendment Right?
@TJeffson
And if you like that, try on some good grass fed buffalo. We switched to buffalo a while back, and the taste of greasy ground beef is now virtually revolting, like biting into the grease trap at Denny's.
At least in our area, it is readily available at a couple of the chain grocery stores (might have to ask the butcher where to find it), also at the local health food/organic store. It costs a little more, but as you say, you don't loose half of it when you cook it so it's probably at least on par in terms of value. Much tastier, and much healthier.
Thorn
[Edit] For comparison: Buffalo vs. Beef same cut of meat. In particular compare the nutrient balance and protein quality scores.
AU just dropped like gramma's underpants ...
http://pennystockjournal.blogspot.ca/p/gold.html
Volatile is right as rain. Yet another bang on call from our Guru Turd.
Flush
I do not think we are going to get that sharp downdraft that many here have been fearful of!
Been trading futures for 12 years,just trying to help.
Let's see!
Be nice to see Gold stay above 1560
There is a distinct and
There is a distinct and special possibility that today will be the day that silver tests $26 support. Exact opposite of what Beastly Stack posted above.
Fair warning.
CA Lawyer
You must drive the 215 a lot...I feel sorry
Bison is absolutely
Bison is absolutely delicious, and much better for you as well.
@sdstacker
The 15 is bad enough.
DR.G
False break in the dollar index,so far.
I am trading aussie and cad and they look pretty good.
PPT won't let equities break lower.
For silver to touch 26 ,the dow will have to fall 100+ pts from hear.
Just my opinion of course.
Small grass fed cattle
We bought a small herd of Lowline Angus last year and so glad we did. Those of you that have some room, but not enough for commercial sized cattle would do well to look into the breed. Can't say enough positive things about them. We have 140 acres of grass, which they were designed to finish on. Rich in omega 3's and we know what we're getting. Looking forward (sort of) to butchering one soon and selling or bartering the other.
It seems all was priced in
It seems all was priced in yesterday. Both gold and silver still in the green for today. And if it stays like this we have a series of higher lows. From ~1535 to ~1550 to ~1568.
@Beastly Stack, good post, I
@Beastly Stack, good post, I respect your analysis.
We can't ignore that nothing states silver and the DJIA need to trade in tandem.
Silver chart fundamentals look atrocious. I'm not a buyer here.
@ Dr G
Holding pretty firmly close to the @27. All PM's still green, barely, but still not nearly the shellacking compared to the last two releases. We are also in an area that has provided long term solid support. Besides that how many weak longs can possibly be left playing in this rigged game. I would think those remaining are rather resolute.