Another Volatile Day Ahead?

As you go through the day today, keep in mind that the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 pm EDT. Recently, they been releasing "headlines" at 12:30, too, so stay sharp. The pattern of 2012 has been to sell PM whenever anything gets posted by The Fed or The Bernank. Therefore, be cautious.

What I hope to do while I attempt to take some down time is to rehash some "Greatest Hits". I plan to re-post daily a blog/thread from the archives, both from TFMR and ATW. We'll get to that in a moment but first...

Following along on yesterday's theme, the USDA issued a crop report earlier this morning and it was a doozy.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046

If you don't want to pour through it, here's what ZH has to say:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/food-price-spike-dead-ahead-us-cuts-corn-crop-forecast-12-56-america-under-drought-conditions

And, of course, our own Grain Man "Art Lomax" is all over it, too. He's currently lurking in Pailin's Corner:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/188505#comment-188505

The weather in The Corn Belt is only forecast to deteriorate over the coming weeks and the heat wave is expected to begin anew next week. Yikes!

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/javaanim.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfs&file=panel1&nplts=31&width=800&height=700

OK, so here is your re-post of the day. This one was originally filed at ATW back on 3/29/11. I must admit that the food price surge that I was writing about never quite materialized...yet. I was also incorrect in my theory that overt QE would continue past June. Regardless, it contains several points that are still relevant today. Namely:

  • "Let's start with the grains because rising grain prices cause all sorts of inflation. Not only are grains the raw input to countless consumer goods, grains are also the primary foodstuff for cattle ranchers and hog finishers as they prepare their herds for slaughter."
  • "OK, so how about corn? Corn is extremely important in food production as it is used not only as a primary ingredient but as a sweetener, as well."
  • "Have you ever heard the term "corn-fed beef"? Most of the best steakhouses proudly champion corn-fed beef because, frankly, its tastes a helluva lot better than grass-fed. The high sugar content of the corn gets converted into fat. The fat makes its way into the muscle and you, Mr. Steakeater, get yourself a beautiful, marbled "prime" steak. Fat cows are also desirable at slaughter because, well, they weigh more and cattle are sold by the pound. OK, so now, pretend for a moment that you're a cattle rancher. As your cattle are growing and being prepared for market (the term is "finished"), you want to feed them as much corn as they'll eat and you can afford. Corn at $7.00/bushel really cramps your business plan. Your first reaction is to control costs by thinning your herd, i.e. you sell some prematurely, before they are "finished". You might also simply want to sell some of your herd to take advantage of today's high prices. Either way, this extra supply in the short term has actually worked to keep cattle prices from soaring at the same rate as the grains. But this is temporary. By this summer, supply will decrease as cattle that would have been coming to market just then have already been slaughtered."

Here's the full post. You'll likely enjoy reading the comments section, too:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/ag-commodities-and-coming-inflation.html

That's it for today. Have fun and stay alert.

TF

296 Comments

squib's picture

I am one of many

Of the crazies enjoying the TTM podcasts , good stuff, thank you!

Waiting for 12:30!

Please keep it up (the great analysis) and be careful not to waste much time responding to

loser detractors.

My chickens have started laying!!!

tmosley's picture

I thought you were on

I thought you were on vacation, but you are posting earlier than ever! ;)

indosil's picture

third

third

indosil's picture

yessssssss

yessssssss........finally.....hope my little Tid Bits on Indian Gold & Silver market provide some insight to Turd....

Gramp's picture

Go, Rest, Be Happy!

Get out in the fresh air with the family, nothing better!

indosil's picture

Zero Hedge

Zero Hedge..finally seems to admit openly that Gold is being manipulated...

Colonel Angus's picture

Hate to disagree, but...

...grass-fed beef tastes so much better. We buy a side of it every summer and use it over the next year. I won't buy the junk they have in the stores...too fatty...

Turd Ferguson's picture

Personal taste, I guess

MODERATOR

Grass-fed is supposed to be much better for you, too.

However, fatty-fat-fatty steak lovers, such as myself, seem to enjoy corn-fed a bit more.

aether's picture

corn fed beef

thanks for the post turd,

please be advised though, when cattle are fed corn that has had pesticides/herbicides sprayed on them, some of those chemicals (or traces of said chemicals) are stored in the fat of the animal. so when you eat that nice fatty steak, you are consuming the garage that was fed to the cow. 

this doesnt even get into the fact that corn (grains in general) are not something a cow is designed to digest. yes i understand grain fatten them up quicker, but alternatives like oats will also help add fat to the meat without the chemicals that are in 90% of the corn grown in the US.

that said, most people think corn fed beef is what beef should taste like. the price of corn WILL drive beef prices up across the board.
 

keep stacking.

Big L's picture

Food prices

Prices of beef and chicken may come down briefly before going back up. Farmers may elect to slaughter their stock instead of feeding them through the winter. If that happens there could be a brief drop in prices as the surplus hits the market. Just something to watch out for. If the prices drop, realize the higher prices will be coming in due time.

waxybilldupp's picture

Keep your cows ...

I'd much rather eat Bambi's dad or mom any day.  Corn or sunflower fed venison is great, but even a sage fed (and flavored) mule deer is just fine.  Certainly easier  to go buy a steak at the store, but when I shoot and process a deer, I know exactly what I'm eating.  Yummmmm!

wax off

Eric Original's picture

old threads

It's fun going back to those old threads.  Seeing old friends, old times.  Some smart things that were said, some stupid things that were said (by all of us!).

Gold is up about 10% since then, silver down almost 30%, FYI.

high-school-reunion-diet.jpg

Mr.Grey's picture

Grass fed cattle

It's unnatural to feed corn to cattle.  Most do cause thats what dad did.  The enzymes they have to break down the cellulose in their stomachs stops when grain is introduced and a different enzyme breaks down the grain.  to much grain, they gets the shits, lose weight and die.  Choosing the right grasses for conditions will allow the cattle to develop without external stresses of graining.  I have to agree with col angus on taste.  Good grass fed beef are every bit as good or better than the marbled beef we've grown accustomed to.  I can't imagine that I can find 80 acres of corn in this county that isn't genetically modified so you need to put that in the equation as well.  When the time comes that you will need to part with a couple silver eagles for a t-bone then the low-line and smaller breeds will be king.  Katie Rose will tell you of the joys of goat milk  but don't forget minature the Guernsey.  Smaller animals utilize less hay as well.

ag1969's picture

Cows can't digest corn

The reason grass fed beef is better for you is because grass is what cows are meant to eat.

Cows are rumens, and they can't digest corn.  This is the reason all of the beef is loaded with antibiotics.  Without the antibiotics, the corn fed beef would be loaded with e-coli.

I highly suggest you all read "The Omnivore's Dilemma" by Michael Pollen.

henry's picture

Grass - fed beef

Fukushima grass

Be Prepared's picture

Picking Up Cow Dung...

If you've ever had to push the cow sh@t around from corn fed cattle, you can see how much of the corn passes right through undigested... even with all their stomachs.  Cows were not really meant to eat corn...  grass-fed that has been aged perfectly is just awesome..

Hook's picture

"The Omnivore's Dilemma" by Michael Pollen

+1 on this book.  It will change the way you look at your food.  Grass fed only for my family now.

Be Prepared's picture

The Ramp to Prosperity looks to be a little more than a Runaway

Be Prepared's picture

Romney can't hide from the "Beast" he helped Create...

Romneycare is killing the state of Mass... and OBummercare will send the U.S. further down the Rabbit Hole...

robov's picture

Watching the Net Dania Charts

and it looks like they are having to throw everything they have at to keep a lid on the price.  Something else to watch and as long as governments are involved it will never change any time soon. I see JP Morgue has reassessed their gold outlook for 2012 to $1671. Pretty easy to do when you control the price courtesy of the Fed.

squib's picture

Totally agree with the

Totally agree with the posters mentioning cows (and chickens and humans etc!!!) 'should' eat a proper diet.

What is a proper diet for cows, humans etc?

Whatever they/we have been eating for, say 500 thousand years! Not what they/we have been eating for the past 100 years! If the cow eats a proper diet, humans eating the cow will then have better nutrition. It's really simple.

You have all seen through the financial manipulation...interesting to see that few have carried it over to their whole lives, including food. So yes, your education about food has been manipulated as well (by the evil that knows more science, and specifically human psychology than we ever will. It is hidden, just as all of the financial manipulation is hidden to most).

So for a cow, it is not corn or other grains that is their natural diet. For humans, it is not processed foods, it is not a lot of grains or sugars. It is not what you have been told.

Or do you believe all markets and financials are fair and just?

I have this problem when storing foods. Most say rice, beans and grain. Strange, my family (and many other red pills) do not eat rice, grains, pasta, beans, processed foods sugars etc. Well, maybe just a little, sure. We are lean, muscular, sleep well, have energy, rarely get sick (and when we do, we recover quicker than those around us) etc. ad nauseum.

Of course one can eat a little bit of everything. However I strongly encourage most folks to eliminate grain (wheats, corn, pasta, rice), milk and beans, one by one, to see if you feel better over a month. If you feel fine, are not flabby etc., however, do not change your diet drastically, however... try eating more walnuts, pecans, almonds, sunflower seeds, pumpkin seeds, veggies, fruits/berries, avocados, fish , chicken (natural diet), beef (grass fed natural diet) etc. and see what it does!

15 years ago I ate crap, was fatty, no energy etc. Until I woke up and saw that we should eat the way we evolved, a natural diet. I eat more fat and cholesterol then the fatties you see waddling through life. I encourage all to try it. Find out your ancestry (an eskimo may not do well changing his diet to rice and veggies, as an Asian will not do well changing to pork and nuts etc. for example), and discover what foods are 'better or worse' for you, as your ancestors are the key.

We have not only been tricked into believing gold is a barbarous relic, we have also been tricked to believe the government's food pyramid.

Do your research and good luck.

Boggs's picture

We're not meant to eat corn

We're not meant to eat corn either, mine also passes through undigested.

Be Prepared's picture

Obama Administration to Close Nine Border Patrol Stations

Just one month after President Obama signed a back door amnesty executive order for hundreds of thousands of young illegal aliens, his administration is now planning to shut down nine Border Patrol stations, something the people living in border states, Border Patrol agents, local Sheriffs and some Congressman are up in arms about.

Critics of the move warn the closures will undercut efforts to intercept drug and human traffickers in well-traveled corridors north of the U.S.-Mexico border. Though the affected stations are scattered throughout northern and central Texas, and three other states, the coverage areas still see plenty of illegal immigrant activity -- one soon-to-be-shuttered station in Amarillo, Texas, is right in the middle of the I-40 corridor; another in Riverside, Calif., is outside Los Angeles.

So what's the reason for the move? Homeland Security says it is to reallocate resources to other hot spots but illegal immigration, along with drug and human trafficking, are like water and they flow where the openings are.

"These deactivations are consistent with the strategic goal of securing America's borders, and our objective of increasing and sustaining the certainty of arrest of those trying to enter our country illegally," CBP spokesman Bill Brooks said in a statement. "By redeploying and reallocating resources at or near the border, CBP will maximize the effectiveness of its enforcement mandate and align our investments with our mission."

But at least one Border Patrol supervisor in Texas has called on local officers to "voice your concerns" to elected officials, warning that the "deactivation" will remove agents from the Texas Panhandle, among other places. Several members of Congress have asked Border Patrol Chief Michael Fisher to reconsider the plan. And local officials are getting worried about what will happen once the Border Patrol leaves town, since they rely on those federal officials to assist in making immigration arrests.

And as usual, local law enforcement will suffer the consequences of the move.

"It could impact us tremendously since we've only got two agents up here now for 26 counties," Potter County Sheriff Brian Thomas told FoxNews.com.

Potter County, in the Texas Panhandle, would be affected by the planned closure of the Amarillo station.   

Thomas said that while his area is far from the border, it's still a major "corridor" for illegal immigrants -- and he said his office depends on Border Patrol to respond to their calls.

"I can't hold a carload of people out there on I-40 for eight hours while somebody comes from El Paso," he said. "I mean, that's just crazy." <Article>

Be Prepared's picture

One Hand leads to Another Hand..

The problem with the drawing is that each time this passes through a cycle... the Hands need to get bigger to accommodate the spending required to pay back the interest on the borrowing which leads to more borrowing and more interest. 

Calgon take me away!

Be Prepared's picture

Speaking about what's bad for you...

dgstage's picture

Turd

Try some Beemans beef from Yokum, Tx,  you will never go back to corn fed.

33 and a turd's picture

This is because Corn is a

This is because Corn is a seed. We do not digest seeds. It is how plants get themselves around.

Another good book to read is Guns, Germs and Steel

We're not meant to eat corn either, mine also passes through undigested.

dontezuma's picture

Wow!

Metals are holding up extremely well, given the new waterfall emerging in the EURUSD...

Rui's picture

Mining shares have already tanked

I think they are predicting where the metals will go next.

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