As If You Needed More Proof...
...Of what a joke the metals markets have become. Up. Down. All on the "non-news" of an 80,000 NFP. As John Williams told us in last week's podcast, the NFP data point is meaningless if you take it as a stand-alone indicator. It simply provides a reason for HFTs to scalp each other. Witness today.
"Conventional" economic wisdom always held that the U.S. economy had to add 200,000 jobs per month to be considered "growing". The last three months...not so much. In fact, Q2 of 2012 was the worst quarterly performance since mid 2010. And what happened in November 2010??
Regardless, the metals spiked on the news because it was another lousy data point. They then almost as quickly get squashed as The Cartel Monkeys and the HFTs jam things back down, tripping sell stops along the way. I gave up (for now) trying to trade this nonsense late last year. It's simply too frustrating for me to find it enjoyable. Andy, on the other hand, relishes in the volatility and, again, that is why I jumped at the opportunity to partner with him. I do not have the expertise nor do I have the patience to trade these conditions. Andy does and, consequently, The Army is having another very good day. He nailed it. Here's just one of his entries, from an hour or so before the headlines:
06:47:50 andy: Regardless of news the reaction I expect from NFP will be extremely volatile and 2 way. Obviously if we see a very bad # gold will take off to the upside but with good size stair step retracements. If the news is bullish I expect a large initial spike down, if the news is neutral then the 2 way action will be much more volatile. Usually the initial spike is reversed at some point as algo’s attempt to game real flows.
Again, anyone attempting to trade these markets without some type of experienced guidance, is likely doomed to failure. Sort of like a climber taking off toward the peak without a sherpa. (Perhaps Pining can take the pic below or something similar and add Andy's face to it.
)

Here are a couple of 1-minute charts just for fun.


{And I'll state this again as clearly as possible because there is confusion every single time I mention Andy's service. 99% of you should not be attempting to trade gold and silver on the Comex. Volume is too thin and the potential for loss is too great. I recognize, though, that there are still those out there that insist upon trading. Some folks even do it for a living. It is for them that this service is designed. The rest of us simply need to keep on stacking, preparing for the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment.}
Anyway, the metals continue rangebound. I had hoped earlier this week that today would be the day that they would finally break out. Nuts, I guess not. Regardless, I still expect a fun, explosive summer and remainder of 2012. We just need to remain patient.


For anyone that missed it, here are the two parts of the conversation that the Silver Doc and I had earlier this week. You might enjoy it. http://www.silverdoctors.com/turd-ferguson-physical-demand-will-cause-cartel-to-give-up-pm-manipulation/
Lastly, don't forget that the latest Hat Contest ends today. The winners will be determined this time by the closing prices shown on the kitco charts on the homepage. This will be at 5:15 EDT. I'll have a new post on Saturday to announce the official winners.
The CoT will be pretty interesting again today so please be sure to check back after 3:30 EDT as I will be adding some thoughts in the comments section of this thread. Thanks again to everyone for playing along. Have a fun day!
TF
Support TF Metals Report with a donation or by purchasing something from the TurdMart Store.








Comments
well...
the only winning move is to stack the real physical!
Turd
I signed up for TTM and have not been able to log in. I can,t seem to get a response from support.
Thanks
Please email me your user name
tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com
I'll be sure to get it fixed. Thanks for your patience.
Good summary
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-07-06/are-banks-raiding-allocated-gold-accounts
Nevermind
I spoke too soon.
In the time I took to read this …
I went from 5th, to 5th.
Yen and Treasuries
The Jap Yen and US Notes fly and gold gets taken to the woodshed!
Great job,f'n brainless!
Wouldn't it be nice to see the bulls show some balls for a change?
Are "Pork Bellies" manipulated as bad as PMs?...
...just asking, in case I want to "diversify".
Just as Trader dan
Just as Trader Dan & Zero Hedge mentioned....NFP numbers not Bad enough for QE...so fundamentally Gold & Silver popped on a less than enthusiastic number.....followed by realization of no immediate QE & coordinated attack by Cartel....I personally lost Indian Rs.10,000 in a matter of minutes!!!!!!!!!!!
From a Trading pt of view i Shorted Gold....but it rallied $15...hit my stoploss & is now below my Stoploss rate.....damn!!!
@indosil
+1
Good One
I have a ton of fun trading Live cattle & Lean HOGS.
Wild at times,they'll get you too!
Guess who?
________ (1) -_______ (2) government could run out of money by the end of October, halting all state spending including salaries, pensions and unemployment benefits, because of a standoff in parliament that has blocked a bill to finance the deficit.
The deficit financing bill, which would allow the government to sell bonds needed to fund almost half of the budget, has languished in parliament as the ruling Democratic Party tussles with opposition parties that can use their control of the upper house to reject legislation.
"Without this bill, the budget will collapse," Finance Minister ______ (3) said on Friday, pleading for cooperation from the two largest opposition parties.
If the bill is not passed, government spending would grind to a halt, the world's third-largest economy would be put in jeopardy and its standing among credit ratings agencies could suffer.
______(4) is not the only developed nation that is staring at an imminent fiscal crisis. Greece's debt-strapped government could run out of money within weeks unless it secures a 31.8 billion euro ($39.42 billion) tranche of bailout funds from the European Union.
The U.S. economy is facing $4 trillion worth of expiring tax cuts and automatic government spending reductions at the end of the year, and a standoff in Congress makes the chance of a compromise over the so-called "fiscal cliff" look dim....Answers = (1)Japan - (2)Tokoyo, (3)Jun Azumi, (4) Japan
Noda's Democrats still control a majority in the lower house of parliament, but are outnumbered by the opposition in the upper house. Many analysts say mid-term elections could be called.
"There's so much uncertainty over the political outlook that it's hard to say how big the risk is of the government running out of cash," said Naoki Iizuka, senior economist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.
"The key would be the timing of any snap election and who would be leading the Democratic Party at the time."
Opposition parties have threatened to delay Japan's deficit financing bill in the past but have eventually yielded and voted in favor. This time, however, the opposition may be more emboldened because of the row over the sales tax hike.
--By removing a few identifying names you could insert many countries into those first paragraphs.
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/06/12592667-japan-to-go-bro...
Patience
I would assume that the NFP numbers are manipulated - like everything else. Obviously, the MOPE is designed to reinforce the feeling of normalcy and growth in the general public. On this basis, then, how bad is the real number?
And - if the actual, true number were to be reported, what would happen to the precious metals? [Probably down]. I do, so tire of these illogical manipulated markets. Everything is slanted and distorted. I can only find comfort in the realization that the "laws of nature" will at some point prevail and the ponzi will crash.
As Turd points out - we have to remain patient.
The dictionary definition of "patient", is: able to accept or tolerate delays, problems, or suffering without becoming annoyed or anxious: be patient, your time will come.
As I have now become annoyed, I guess I'm not very patient.
So this 80,000 will be "revised" to 65,000 next month...
...while at the same time B.O.'s "favorability" rating will be holding steady at 49%? Tick...tick...tick (attention Homeland Security, "tick...tick...tick" does not refer to a "liberty loving terrorist" and is merely a representation of how short the the fuse is for the reelection of a total failure) http://townhall.com/tipsheet/townhall.comstaff/2012/07/05/love_liberty_dhs_may_label_you_a_terror_suspect
Underreaction
Thanks for the update.
The PM markets hardly react to what they used to and what we counted on as barometers to trade on at this point. I sometimes wonder if the QE announcement will jack it up like it used to? A $500 bln announcement or anything deemed 'low ball' at this point might be viewed negatively by the market or short lived.
Long term gold goes up and I'm referring above to this recent and short window were watching the past few months and now going forward. The underreaction and disconnection in the USD yesterday and the movement of gold proportionate to the activity was noticeable I thought also.
The jacking of the metals down despite the anemic job numbers (that will be revised down next month) was a new curveball. They're trying really hard to keep a lid on a boiling pot they know will scald some massive shorts whether it's in paper PM's or massive shorts in the miners. Anyone who doesn't think the metals are being steered or manipulated to some extent just doesn't want to accept and believe it's happening for reasons of their own.
The Barclays and JPM and Libor fixing problems show the extent to which the steering and rigging of the markets has been going on for years so to think the PM markets aren't being pressured/steered is denial or naive.
Ignorance is bliss and less threatening then stark reality.
Chart again
For ease of reference
Stuck in the System of Corporation America
http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/2012/07/stuck-in-system-of-corp...
The governments themselves, local, county, state and Federal are all "for profit" corporations. The founding fathers are spinning. If I make myself a corporation and commit a crime I will not be held accountable... You know that every American is the property of the United States Corporation of America. back in 1913 when the fed reserve was put in place, then after that the fed gov created the social security system to pay the interest on the debt. So, we all have a social security card with a number, that number is your corporate number. A debt slave by the corporation that is ruining our country , Is it any wonder that "our" own government want to limit the internet and free speech. Instead of limiting vulgar and truly offensive material that todays musicians and other public people make they want to suppress the truth about what "our government" does behind our backs and how they steal our money and give to corporate fat cats that pay themselves MILLIONS of Dollars and have life long pensions at our expense!!! I think it will get worst before it gets better ..for us. We are going to see a repeat of France 1789 if crap like this continues... If they're is any more needed proof that American Corporations are absolutely "MAD" with power and need to be broken up, dismantled and their evil CEO's and political cronies put on trial... THIS IS IT!!!
London Trader
I'm truly amazed that Turd can keep pitching this shill know as andrew mcguire he is obviously an agent of the chinese government. What is even more amazing is how his analysis can be the direct opposed of his partner paul coghloan who is a some what good fx trader, a bit dry is his approach and over priced, but I do believe he is not shilling.
Like What I see
The last hour has shown some good solid buying at 1585 and 27
Looks like a good battle,may we see a SQEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE?
@ChiTown
+1
That "amazing" Maguire stuff was just gibberish...
Belief systems
ChiTown...
"I'm truly amazed that Turd can keep pitching this shill know as andrew mcguire he is obviously an agent of the chinese government."
Really?
An agent? C'mon.
Andy Maguire, the
Andy Maguire, the whistleblower? Are you sure you're talking about the right guy?
And I don't see how Turd saying that 99% of the people here at TFMR have no business trading metals is "pitching" anything. The only thing I ever recall the Turd pitching is buying some phys...
You should learn how to read..
Silver zoomed briefly around
Silver zoomed briefly around 3rd week of January this year, and I assumed this was Mr. Sprott buying for his fund. Does anyone know whether he buys every 6 months or so?
Just trying to cheer myself up!
"Pork Bellies"
Don't know about Pork Bellies" being manipulated Clinkin, but I do know that "Bacon Futures" have a very short half-life around the Dupp household. Fresh tomatoes are starting to show up, so BLTs are becoming a table staple.
wax off
edit: Is there a more perfect food than a BLT (washed down with a cold beer)?
Hat Contest Countdown
Looks like I'm way out of the money on the hat contest due to the jobs report or George Bush or something, but I remain optimistic because we've all seen this game before where right at the very last minute, Turd make a phone call or two or places and order or something and kaboom, the price makes an immediate sizable adjustment right at closing, and once again, the insiders win the hats. I know from my experience that this will happen again, but I can hope that he screws up just a little bit and the marble rolls one more notch up or down and hits my slot. And you think the metal markets are manipulated for profit, wait until you see what they can do for something important like a Turd hat.
thanks
Thanks for the update Turd, Same old song and dance, nothing to get excited about except to hit the local shops to find some panic selling deals! now for the check list:
1 Ac in truck working, check
2 cold beverage to battle 104 heat, check
3 stack of fiat to exchange for stack of PM s,check
4 boat sitting at the dock waiting to stash pm's at secure location,check
I'm out of here!
@ChiTown
Whatever you believe about Andy is your opinion and I won't try to change it. I don't use Andy's service or Coghlan's, so I can't say anything about them.
But I can definitely say that since I began hanging here at TFMR, I never once felt like Turd was "pitching" any service whatsoever.
I think that you are grossly exaggerating
Then why dose he have a link to his service
Just trying to warn anyone from giving this guy any money, I can think of a lot of other service that blow Maruires away.
http://www.rickackerman.com
/http://www.tradertracks.com/
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/
FREE stuff at
http://www.kereport.com/
Just to name a few.
Romance Pants
After waiting for the Bullshit Report on the Bullshit Figures that produced a Bullshit reaction in the Markets, I'm selling my Gold and Silver and investing in these:
Cos when the world is turning Pants, maybe it's telling you to invest in Pants.
http://www.instructables.com/id/Romance-Pants/
Another chart, B.O.'s prediction of unemployment...
June jobs swoon: America’s labor market depression continues
July 6, 2012, 9:31 am
This was not the employment report either the American worker or the Obama campaign wanted to see right now. The Labor Department said the U.S. economy created just 80,000 jobs in June, less than the 90,000 economists had been forecasting. And private-sector job growth was just 84,000, down sharply from 105,000 in May. Not doing fine.
The unemployment rate stayed at a lofty 8.2%.
Read more:http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/07/june-jobs-swoon-americas-labor-market-depression-continues/