A Significant Day For Silver

Tuesday, July 3, 2012 at 12:12 pm

Just a few things before I take some time away.

Tomorrow is Independence Day here in America. The markets will all be closed. I will be traveling and out of action until mid-day on Thursday. With that, here are a few things to ponder.

Today's move in silver is potentially quite significant. On the surface, it's just a 3% short squeeze. However, take a look at these long-term charts. Silver has been following the downtrend line from the Leap Day highs for over 4 months. Today, it broke out. Do you recall a few days ago when I mentioned that you should beware of "descending triangles"? They are a bit of an optical illusion as the diagonal line always seems to look more powerful than the horizontal line. In this case, though, the horizontal line connects multiple bottoms and goes back over 9 months, or about twice the duration of the diagonal line. The idea that price would break UP and not down should NOT be surprising. Now, before we get excited, it's only one day. Silver needs to confirm the breakout by not only holding its gains but advancing further. A move through $29 would be great and set up a move back toward $29.50. Then, IF we can get a lousy NFP number on Friday, the stage will be set for a run at $30 and the buy stops set above there.

Of course, silver is getting a shove, too, from some powerful action in the grains and in crude. Keep an eye on crude, by the way. Tensions are heating up again in The Gulf and a move through 88 and then 90 would likely signal a run back toward 100.

The gold chart looks solid, too. I expected some Cartel capping above 1620 and we got it today. That's OK. It is what it is. Let's see what we can do tomorrow without Comex interference. Thursday will be a setup day for Friday and Friday, IF THE BLSBS IS LOUSY, could be a tremendously significant day.

A couple more things. First, if you haven't yet done so, take some time over the holiday to listen to this BBC radio piece regarding a return to "the gold standard". A very interesting discussion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01k9qd8

I did an interview yesterday with The Doc at SilverDoctors. He hasn't posted it yet but I suppose he will over the next few hours. You'll be able to find it here: http://www.silverdoctors.com/ though I imagine someone will also post a link into the comments section of this thread.

Lastly, our good pal "Fortinbras" informed us today of the death of one of his good friends earlier this week in Afghanistan. As you celebrate and relax over the next 2 days, you might send out a prayer for "Dids" and his family. Below is a picture of him, relaxing with a cold one, taken about two years ago. We here at TFMR are always grateful to those willing to make the ultimate sacrifice and, clearly, this one hits pretty close to home.

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing, mid-week vacation. See you Thursday.

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Comments

Hat tip to Big Buffalo

Submitted by Bugzy on July 3, 2012 - 4:30pm.

Hat tip to you sir.

Welcome back to the light,

Submitted by Eric Original on July 3, 2012 - 4:37pm.

Welcome back to the light, Big Buffalo.

How 'bout them oils today?

@Eric Original

Submitted by Big Buffalo on July 3, 2012 - 4:49pm.

OIL.

@Big Buffalo.. blowing off steam..@ the SpeakEasy..

Submitted by maravich44 on July 3, 2012 - 4:49pm.

...lost and gone away. I remember you well and am not sure what the trigger was, Please stay around, not trying to drag you away from the main thread. We are friendly and welcoming. Stop by my friend..44...

@Fortinbras

Submitted by waxybilldupp on July 3, 2012 - 4:59pm.

Please accept my sympathy on the loss of your friend Dids. Because of the when, where and how that he died, it would be easy for a diverse group such as this blog community to take sides on the political issue and use this unfortunate event as a soapbox for their opinions regarding war. It seems, however, that this a clearly neither the time nor the place. Whatever one's belief regarding the concept of war seems somehow trivial in this moment. Dids, simply by placing himself in harms way, by risking his life in the hope of a greater good, is a hero by any measure. The United States came into being because other heroes took those risks. Those heroes started taking those risks before they could ever know how it would turn out.

As I read thru today's comments, it occurred to me how lucky I am to have stumbled upon a forum called the Watchtower. I'm even luckier to have stuck with it as it morphed into it's current form. The people here are an interesting collection of intelligent, witty, sometimes profound individuals. I learn many new things every day. However, because they are individuals, they also have their occasional shortcoming and foibles. It's called "life". The thing that makes me feel good about being part of this "community" out here in the ozone, is that we mostly try to help and watch out for each other. I think it's rare to have a group that is this large, yet completely anonymous, with so very few who would choose to be disruptive. That's pretty remarkable.

wax off

@Endzeit

Submitted by waxybilldupp on July 3, 2012 - 5:04pm.

Thanks for making my point.

wax off

edit: Several of them, actually.

With Respect

Submitted by humbleprofits on July 3, 2012 - 5:08pm.

Endzeit...

Submitted by Fortinbras on July 3, 2012 - 5:09pm.

I actually personally agree with you on the notion that for centuries, city states, empires and nations have draped their young in flags and patriotism to send them off to war in economic self-interest and little more.

That said, please do not delude yourself into thinking that you are original, clever or wise, you are none of those, just another bug with an opposable thumb, like me, like Dids... Nothing more.

Fortinbras, Kindly Accept My Sincerest Condolences

Submitted by California Lawyer on July 3, 2012 - 5:10pm.

I agonize with you for your loss of a dear friend. Thank you for your excellent contributions to this site, and to me personally, for sharing your experiences and wisdom.

The path of the soldier is difficult, but rewarding on many facets. The death of a soldier is always somber.

I stand down for one minute of silence in honor of you, your friend, and all of the other soldiers who gave the ultimate sacrifice.

May you walk in peace and be gifted with pleasant thoughts despite the loss of your friend.

Take care.

soldiers

Submitted by sixdollarsilver on July 3, 2012 - 5:11pm.

A good friend of mine was killed in Afghanistan last year.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/7209014/Posthumous-award-for-Leon-Smith

Leon was a gentle soul, but had a thirst for interaction and experience. He was also driven to be the best he could and was a very physical/kinaesthetic type. We trained in the same martial art together for a number of years.

Above all, these statements from his family attest to his character and how it led him to his chosen path:

"We feel that Leon would not have considered machine gun fire and open ground as obstacles when a man is down," the statement said.

"He would have preferred to act, and risk all, than consider the thought of his mate suffering alone.

"He was a kind, loving and fun man who pursued life beyond what others perceive as limits."

I abhor war and don't see it as at all necessary, but it is a reality we currently face (10 - 30 000 years and counting?). I personally would love to live in the absence of its existence, as would most I'm sure. However, we don't.

My thoughts go to Dids' family and friends at this time.

@Endzeit

Submitted by Harald on July 3, 2012 - 5:11pm.

You're repeating slogans which we've all heard many times before.

4th of July - declare your mental independence

Submitted by realitybiter on July 3, 2012 - 5:15pm.

I don't know Dids, but I miss him. There is not enough thanks in the world to properly thank him.

American troops are enormously valuable - both in their skill and their decision to serve

Politicians (mostly worthless), however, seem to constantly abuse this value. Read up on the prelude to the Iraq invasion and study what Rumsfeld said and what the Generals said. Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, and Cheney were so far off on what we soon learned that they are a joke. General Shinseki's Congressional testimony reads like prophecy, now. (Kind of reminds me of what Byron Dorgan said in 1999 regarding repealing Glass Steagall)

It is obvious the Generals were right, and Rumsfeld very, very wrong. Do your own research. It is not enough to wrap yourself in the flag and chant "USA". Our soldiers, who are put in harms way deserve more. Read the Pat Tillman story. Watch Restrepo. Watch Battle for Haditha. This is not Saving Private Ryan stuff....Read Blackhearts

Observe that the vets coming back are committing suicides at the fastest clip ever....about 500 a year....(we also have never subjected troops to so many tours as we are now, and "helping" them with so many anti depressants and sleep meds). This is unacceptable.

I've hired two vets from Iraq and Afghanistan. Bad ass mofo's. My life is far richer because of them....and they are great employees. Illuminating stories. I think their testimony is far more accurate than Fox News.

Final observation, however, this is just facts folks, as we likely engage in blowing up the middle east some more very soon, check out the religious demographics of the US military. We are told by some that this is about crazy Muslims and saving Israel (76% Jewish)... Muslims are more represented in US military than Jews by a factor of 2. That's crazy.

US Military designated religions (% in America):

Catholic 24% (27)

Protestant 44% (56)

Muslim 0.3% (1)

Jewish 0.3% (2)

I am not making any statement here. Just weird facts that don't quite add up in my head. (If Israel is really that important why aren't Jews over-represented? Pat Tillman was a devout Atheist and he walked on $4 million a year in the NFL to volunteer, for example) Not to single out Jews, why aren't more members of Congress immediate family enlisting? Why didn't W's daughters enlist? Seemed pretty important to him.

This is my wrap up on the situation:

flame, at will.

@ endzeit

Submitted by peckerwood on July 3, 2012 - 5:15pm.

my point remains. it was Turd's wishes that this would not happen - another politically/ethically charged shouting match.

tschuss!

:.Pretty Sure..

Submitted by maravich44 on July 3, 2012 - 5:16pm.

..that Turd is just asking for is just asking for reflection and appreciation here. Possibly hold your cause until thur.?

@Endzeit

Submitted by Really- on July 3, 2012 - 5:16pm.

Any chance we could agree some points could be made at another time, another thread? Your opinion is not unique, but to insist on stating it now shows bad form. What can be gained at this time?

@bam - I'm sorry you're upset

Submitted by cpnscarlet on July 3, 2012 - 5:26pm.

@bam - I'm sorry you're upset that I don't think every post of yours is a shiny apple of gold. Keep trying. Perhaps you'll change my opinion. Until then, forgive me for not agreeing with everything you say like a doting sycophant.

By the way, you're reply was what, exactly? Repetitive opinions tends to put one to.... Zzzzzz.... Zzzzz.....zzzz...zz......

Oh.... Oh... I'm sorry.... Did someone say silver was over $40? No? Then never mind... Zzzzz. Zzzzzz.... Z.zzz.. .... . . . .... .. SNORKKKK!!!! ... . . ZZzzzzz ZZZzzzzzz

Maravich44

Submitted by realitybiter on July 3, 2012 - 5:27pm.

I saw pistol pete play on the West coast in 1969. I was 9. Blew me away. That cat was a revolutionary. Talk about Independence....behind the back bullet passes, full stride, shoot the lights out.

Jim Sinclair's Most important statement since 2001

Submitted by Watcher on July 3, 2012 - 5:28pm.

My Dear Extended Family,

Gold will go to and above $3500. This is the most important message I have sent you since 2001.

There are very few of us dynamic thinkers that see everything as a trend constantly in motion. Anyone can be a static thinker, quoting recent economic figures or news headline (MSM), and coming up with a usually wrong opinion.

The change today is that the "Rig Is Up."

The Bank of England turning their backs on Barclays, the company who did their bidding, will be the event in time marking the trend change.

Many of us in our areas of activity will successfully fight the Riggers. The many complaints that so many of you kindly sent in to fight manipulation released the Kraken in me.

The Kraken is back in its cage where it belongs. The paper trail is there. The worm has turned. Even more importantly is that this fight in the $1540 gold price area was not for regaining the old high in gold. The six attempts to kill gold, supported by some gold writers looking for favors from the riggers was a now failed attempt to keep gold from trading above $3500.

The battle to stop gold has been lost.

The start, like all starts towards the old high and well above, should be slow with more unfolding drama. It will build on itself but gold will trade at and above $3500. I am now as certain of this as I was over ten years ago when I told you gold was headed for $1650. I knew that as fact and to me from $248 gold was trading at $1650.

My job now is to define gold's full valuation for you when it occurs. The timing is no less than one year from now to a maximum of three years from now. I believe I will be able to do that for you.

This is the most important message I have written you since early in 2001. I write this with total intellectual and spiritual certainty.

Respectfully,
Jim

Endzeit

Submitted by Moderator Washington on July 3, 2012 - 5:31pm.

MODERATOR

Endzeit's posts have been taken down and he has been placed on moderation for a few days.

There is a time and a place for everything, but this ain't it.

@Harald

Submitted by Dagney Taggart on July 3, 2012 - 5:34pm.

...yet you don't seem to understand that nothing will change until you take them seriously. And our friends and families will just continue to get torn apart physically and financially on and on with more sob stories of passive respects given to the war dead without learning a damn thing about war.

What good are our precious PMs without a real paradigm shift?

PS. Well said Bugzy.

petroleum is not it.......

Submitted by jonoso on July 3, 2012 - 5:36pm.

you like to invest in silver???? then you should be pushing for solar and other alternative energy sources where silver is needed what a friggin backwards statement thet petroleum is it......................

Jim Sinclair: Most important message in 10 years Gold to $3,500+

Submitted by Irene on July 3, 2012 - 5:39pm.

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Gold to $3,500+

@Watcher: Sorry, I hadn't seen that you'd already posted. :0

"I'm Just a Stupid Woman"

Submitted by realitybiter on July 3, 2012 - 5:44pm.

Stop all ready. You are getting me excited. Stupid chicks rule!

I believe JS will do it. He

Submitted by Punk-Assets on July 3, 2012 - 5:45pm.

I believe JS will do it. He was less than $13 off his call of the $900 top in the 80s and just months early on his $1650 call for Jan 2011. I'm really excited about his post.

@ Fortinbras

Submitted by Lamenting_Laver... on July 3, 2012 - 5:47pm.

I have spent the better part of today thinking about your friend, his family and you. Another life ended. Another family with broken hearts. Another friend to be sorely missed. Many thoughts on the circumstances and the context, but none to be articulated today.

Today, I set those thoughts of context aside for just a brief moment, and what is left is a testament to the free will of man and the courage it takes to put your body and soul and the happiness of your loved ones at stake for your conviction of heart. A man, who had the personal strength to walk his talk and fight for what he held dear. Something which, when viewed solely on its own merits, is inspirational and which demands respect.

I am sad to hear about the loss of your friend, and I thank you for sharing this with us. My heart goes out to his family, and I hope that you, as a close friend, will be able to find ways to help them ease the pain.

I dont follow charts but Im

Submitted by Punk-Assets on July 3, 2012 - 5:48pm.

I dont follow charts but Im looking at this 4 month bowl forming in gold. Will a cup and handle form in a few months? Would be fantastic and its certainly fun now to contemplate.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0182nyb.html

Happy Independence Day and other thoughts....

Submitted by Maryann on July 3, 2012 - 5:56pm.

I just love Santa. Nice new post from him as mentioned above.

Thought you might like to hear an update on our community garden. The family/individual plots are producing! I harvested squash and cucumber from my plot the other day, and the watermelons are getting close. We are planning on planting our co-op garden soon (which is our garden for growing produce for local food banks). Just need to raise a little more money for the drip irrigation system.

One of the best parts about the garden is the community. We had a workday Saturday to complete putting wood chips on pathways. Young and old worked side by side, and people talked about good things happening as well as burdens they are carrying. I can't express what a blessing this project has been, and it is exciting to begin reaping the rewards of friendship and food. I encourage others to consider a garden with your church, community group, or friends if possible.

Hope my fellow Americans have a wonderful holiday, and consider reading parts or all of the Declaration of Independence with your family out loud tomorrow.

Fort, prayers go out to you and the family of your friend.

Fortinbras

Submitted by Magpie on July 3, 2012 - 5:56pm.

My heart aches for Dids, his family, and for you. I am glad you had the good fortune to call him your friend.

@Irene No problemo

Submitted by Watcher on July 3, 2012 - 5:57pm.

@Irene

No problemo

@cpn

Submitted by bam on July 3, 2012 - 5:59pm.

I'm not the least bit upset. But, there you go again putting words in my mouth. Nasty habit of yours. For someone who accuses another of being a "one-note Somba", you seem to do the same thing over and over again. Pot kettle black.

Again, it's not about whether you agree with me or not, as that is irrelevant. It's about your misinterpretation (whether deliberate or not) of my point of view or words. When you do that, I'm forced to respond, lest the inaccuracy stand, and that inaccuracy becomes the 'new reality' of what I intended to say.

In this particular thread, my response to your initial post was simply to point out that there was no need to bring a pointless post from a previous thread onto this one, as 1) it serves no purpose 2) clutters the board and 3) leads to exchanges like this which make for a crap board.