A Significant Day For Silver

Just a few things before I take some time away.

Tomorrow is Independence Day here in America. The markets will all be closed. I will be traveling and out of action until mid-day on Thursday. With that, here are a few things to ponder.

Today's move in silver is potentially quite significant. On the surface, it's just a 3% short squeeze. However, take a look at these long-term charts. Silver has been following the downtrend line from the Leap Day highs for over 4 months. Today, it broke out. Do you recall a few days ago when I mentioned that you should beware of "descending triangles"? They are a bit of an optical illusion as the diagonal line always seems to look more powerful than the horizontal line. In this case, though, the horizontal line connects multiple bottoms and goes back over 9 months, or about twice the duration of the diagonal line. The idea that price would break UP and not down should NOT be surprising. Now, before we get excited, it's only one day. Silver needs to confirm the breakout by not only holding its gains but advancing further. A move through $29 would be great and set up a move back toward $29.50. Then, IF we can get a lousy NFP number on Friday, the stage will be set for a run at $30 and the buy stops set above there.

Of course, silver is getting a shove, too, from some powerful action in the grains and in crude. Keep an eye on crude, by the way. Tensions are heating up again in The Gulf and a move through 88 and then 90 would likely signal a run back toward 100.

The gold chart looks solid, too. I expected some Cartel capping above 1620 and we got it today. That's OK. It is what it is. Let's see what we can do tomorrow without Comex interference. Thursday will be a setup day for Friday and Friday, IF THE BLSBS IS LOUSY, could be a tremendously significant day.

A couple more things. First, if you haven't yet done so, take some time over the holiday to listen to this BBC radio piece regarding a return to "the gold standard". A very interesting discussion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01k9qd8

I did an interview yesterday with The Doc at SilverDoctors. He hasn't posted it yet but I suppose he will over the next few hours. You'll be able to find it here: http://www.silverdoctors.com/ though I imagine someone will also post a link into the comments section of this thread.

Lastly, our good pal "Fortinbras" informed us today of the death of one of his good friends earlier this week in Afghanistan. As you celebrate and relax over the next 2 days, you might send out a prayer for "Dids" and his family. Below is a picture of him, relaxing with a cold one, taken about two years ago. We here at TFMR are always grateful to those willing to make the ultimate sacrifice and, clearly, this one hits pretty close to home.

I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing, mid-week vacation. See you Thursday.

TF

Comments

Jan Roos's picture

Some advice pls

Anyone holding Barkerville to see where it goes or is it time to cash out and take profits?

maravich44's picture

@John Galt ref: Banks and test runs,,

,,what you just pointed out has been my suspicion and fear all along (intuition,paranoia) Tie this in with a downgrade and liquidity issues, I keep flashing back to MF Global, a mere and distant memory now and many never noticed or were alarmed because it has not affected them directly(yet)..Edit Add: these criminal clowns are getting desperate and are starting to eat their own...

tmosley's picture

@Really- They would be

@Really-

They would be trading silver for gold.  After that, gold is money, so they can hold that until a gold standard re-establishes itself, either formally or informally, and then buy up whatever they are interested in.  If the US doesn't collapse too hard, I will probably be buying up a great deal of real estate, and investing in materials science R&D, as that is what I know.

peckerwood's picture

Higgs Boson

parabolas go vertical, then end.  the pace of discovery by physicists has nearly gone vertical.  we are now entering a new paradigm.  other parabolas to consider - population growth, natural resource use, computational speed, etc.  very, very interesting times lie ahead folks.  many things coming to a head all at the same time.  some good, some bad.  but don't get me going on the duality of the universe... 

John Galt's picture

Then again...

Regarding solar flares affecting databases & triggering bank runs etc, I do believe the ultimate objective for those running the system is to herd everyone into a digital currency of some kind.

That said I have to question whether a major "glitch" with the current digital currency system would be the way to usher in a new digital currency system.

Bill the Greek's picture

Every corner in Greece is

Every corner in Greece is full of buygold shops(i call them blackbuyers)

Keep stoking

John Galt's picture

@ peckerwood re: parabolic

That thought has crossed my mind on a few occasions too.

When you look at the course of human history and how far we've come as a species in terms of technological achievement etc., it wasn't all that long ago that we were grunting bipeds banging rocks together to create a spark for a fire.

Suddenly we're on the cusp of discovering the God particle, and we're already far along with cutting (and editing) the very blueprint of human life (DNA).

Now that humans are "playing God" with the very building blocks of all life, I have great concerns over our (in)abilities to keep our greed and ego in check - and what the consequences of that will be.

rl999's picture

@ John Galt

"That said I have to question whether a major "glitch" with the current digital currency system would be the way to usher in a new digital currency system."

...like 9/11 (which was supposedly a failure of all our security and intelligence  systems) was used to implement war and new security measures and new intelligence services?  It's counter-intuitive to those of us that naturally consider the well being of all when we consider implementing new policies/plans/new world order benchmarks.

If you just remove your common sense/compassion the plans of  TPTB are actually quite "logical", you just have to be a psychopath.  Try thinking about it like a kid; if I break this toy (economic model) it will be fixed/replaced because otherwise I will whine (cause suffering to the innocent). 

Problem, reaction, solution. ~ Create the problem, allow/guide the reaction (msm), offer the solution, which is what you (TPTB) wanted all along.

Big L's picture

@rl999

"At the risk of being considered crass, I truly wish the economy would just swan dive over the ledge already.  It's become blindingly obvious to those of us paying attention that it can't be fixed in it's current condition."

I prefer the slow decline as opposed to pulling the rug out quickly. Giving people a chance to adapt, and letting them 'wake up' on their own terms is the better option, to avoid as much social unrest as possible. IMO

I hate to think what will happen to the 'prepared' when the 'unprepared' wake up suddenly and are already past the end of their rope. I don't really want to be in that reality.

True it can't be fixed, but giving some of us a chance to start building a replacement frame work on the way down is better than throwing the dice in an instant meltdown.

For instance, I'm still building my garden and figuring out how to grow and can food, getting started with a bee hive and bee keeping, have signed up for Red Cross first aid classes and a three day hand gun home protection course. Trying to get up to speed on food storage and haven't even looked at bug out options yet.

It takes time, I could use another year. Or two.

Just saying.... it's a lot to do.

peckerwood's picture

there you are, John Galt

yup.  i put it out there just to stimulate some thinking.  i have my opinions as to where this all goes.  i don't think i should 'go there' on the main thread.

i need to run along now .  i am in charge of the main course.  i won't say what i'm making out of respect for any vegetarians here.  but i do have a non traditional way of preparing Spanferkel.  i use mesquite.

happy holiday to all 

treefrog's picture

higgs boson saves

higgs boson walks into a church.

the priest says, "you can't come in here, churches are only for people."

higgs boson says, "without me, you can't have mass."

Louie's picture

Yurty Joke

Can we talk about yurts again?

Here is my favorite mobile homes picture.

rl999's picture

@ Big L

I should have supported my argument for swan dive vs. crawl with the theory of triage.

Will 2-5 more years of gradual decline allow more people to prepare, or will a sudden reset force people to do something they might never do otherwise.  That is an argument I can't provide any data on, but what I considered in my previous post.  I guess we will find out.

Good point about the unprepared.  I don't want to deal with hungry, angry, scared, desperate people.

Good sir, your preps sound like a conversion to off the grid, and that is something I haven't even started yet.

maravich44's picture

@rl999.

..yes +1, that is why I love this place,../

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

The Revolution- Boston Bloody Boston

I'm about to post the entire series somewhere else on here and I'll leave the link here after I do so.

This is part one.   And here's the link to the rest of the series.    

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/186337#comment-186337

The controversies and conflicts leading to war, including the Stamp Act, the Boston Massacre, the Boston Tea Party, and the Battles of Lexington and Concord.

tmosley's picture

Eh?  Discoveries by

Eh?  Discoveries by physicists have by no means "gone vertical".  We've been stuck in pretty much the same spot for 30+ years.  With this, we might actually start making some real progress again.

Silver bear of very little brain's picture

@treefrog A sound idea if you

@treefrog

A sound idea if you will pardon an interjection from an Ancient Briton.  Our parliamentary system was based on local men representing their locality;  now, centralised parties treat constituencies as within their gift, and bugger the locals!

Dagney Taggart's picture

For Your Independence...

From Silver Shield....

I don't see "Bomb the freedom out of a country 10,000 miles away that few could find on a nameless map."

Bluefin771's picture

Turd's Interview with Doc and COT

I read the interview Turd gave with Doc this morning. Lots of ground covered and well worth the read/listen. One of the general themes discussed was how many things were fraudulently managed today. Future historians will surely be tempted to call this the Age of Corruption and the interview hits many of the high points of corruption as pertains to metals.

Reviewing the COT numbers, both Turd and Doc were enthusiastic that the numbers were potentially very bullish from a structure standpoint to allow significant price appreciation in the near future. When I first read their argument I'd have to say they both make a good case. Then I thought about forest and trees and assumptions (often assumptions are unstated).

Consider the COT report the tree. It exists in a forest of what exactly? Well part of this forest is the bullion banks (JPM, HSBC, Brinks, the Delaware Depository), hedge funds (for the most part anonymous), large commercial miners and speculators and the organizing entity, the Comex. Keeping in mind the Age of Corruption meme, who exactly says what the COT is. Why the Comex, of course. And the reports' numbers are verified for accuracy by: the Comex as they are a self regulated entity. I suppose one could argue that the CFTC oversees the Comex but I'd liken that to the fox overseeing the hen house. So basically just the Comex is responsible for the COT report. And everyone treats it as gospel.

Turd and the Doc just got through discussing how many things were managed today. So does the Comex reputation build any confidence that the COT report is accurate? Turd, and perhaps a few of you, just got burned by the MFGlobal fiasco. The Comex was supposed to stand behind, and touted such on their website, the safety from theft of customer accounts. So no help to the reputation there. And the allowance to settle contracts in shares of GLD or SLV in place of real metal is a reputation minus. And the monthly settlements of gold and silver contracts, millions of ounces per year, with no withdrawals from from the dealer category (Harvey Organ speaks of this often) calls into question just exactly what kind of a physical market is the Comex running? Ted Butler has written extensively on commodity law, which is supposed to apply to the Comex, and what really happens. Suffice it to say following commodity law is not a strong suit of the Comex. So no reputation help there.

To this point we have a COT report with major players of disrepute involved, put out by an organization of questionable repute, and overseen by a governmental body of questionable repute. I'm not saying the report is not genuine or correct, just that the players involved are unable to lend their reputations to its genuineness. So maybe this report is real. In an age when everything else of consequence is managed this one item might have been overlooked or just not require managing.

Which brings me to the point of motive: Is there a reason or benefit to managing the report? Could it be managed if the Powerz wanted it to be?

Certainly the COT report is talked about and analyzed extensively by the metal community. Turd, the Doc, Clive Maude, Ted Butler, Dan Norcini, and a host of other analysts discuss it at length. Many make going long or short recommendations based on the report structure. So from a motive standpoint a reason to manage the report is present. This reason dovetails nicely with the price management through paper contracts to move a relatively small community (in the West) one way or the other. Is there perhaps a computer algorithm or two that reacts in a particular way to the report numbers? So I would submit that motive is present.

Is there opportunity? Just because one wants to do something does not mean all obstacles magically vanish. Considering the reputations of the bullion banks and Comex, one obstacle not present is ethics, a point I will not belabor.

Now consider the construction of the report. In the most basic form the report is just a summation of market participants long and short positions for a given week. No fancy math required, just addition and subtraction. Similar to voting in a secret ballot, only the Comex and the CFTC are the ones which get to see and verify all the votes. And the CFTC is probably not looking, which just leaves the Comex. So the only thing stopping the Comex from adjusting the numbers is the Comex. That seems to me to be a very thin reed to hang any investment decisions or analysis on. But maybe, in an Age of Corruption, this is the one report that is not managed. Maybe, but opportunity is there if there is the will.

Military pilots are drilled with the axiom: Check Your Six. Investors need to check their facts, check their fundamentals, some check their TA and charts. And everyone needs to check their assumptions.

opticsguy's picture

Denninger is on it today. Great rant.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=208142

a lot to think about today...

peckerwood's picture

eh?

no, proof of a particle referred to by physicists as the "God" particle is no big deal.  no, the fact that the theoretical particle was first postulated 50 years ago, again, no big deal.  a theory that unifies the fundamental forces, and the fundamental particles, of the universe, no big deal.

besides, as John G. pointed out in so many words, the parabola is as vertical as hell if you start the time line with the ancient Greeks.

i'm tired of the constant combat here.

see ya all in a month.

Eric Original's picture

jan roos re: Barkerville

It seems we have a difference of opinion within the miner threads on this blog.

To me, their press release with the 10 million ounces doesn't pass the smell test.  I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole.

Urban Roman's picture

Couple of things ...

Just for the heck of it. Thing 1:

Town in England turns off traffic lights surprising results

... and I have received a complaint that my funny stuff is too wordy -- therefore:

Duuude

... and finally:

Cant Do That Now

Jan Roos's picture

@tmosley

Out of curiosity. Whete are you planting your next residency flag? I've been looking for the same thing. Costa and Nicaragua was great to travel too. Havent checked out many other countries except for the uk.

Cheers

Jan Roos's picture

@ericO

Thanks for the input. I made 150% on that stock so will take profits tommorow. They say pigs get slaughtered so i'll try and have some discipline and sell.

cpnscarlet's picture

Where physics must go

If the quality of life is going to get better in the future for even more people, human knowledge needs to -

1) Find a gravity shield or an anti-gravity generator

2) Develop a high-density energy source (joules/gram) that doesn't kill us when things go wrong and is cheap to deploy (think cold fusion or low-level fission)

3) Develop a method of regenerating damaged nerve tissue

4) Develop the sensory array device (think "Brainstorm"). However, this could be the one invention that actually does to humans what happened to the Krell in "Forbidden Planet", although on a much longer time scale.

5) Perfect direct neural/digital interfaces

6) Develop practical interplanetary, then interstellar space travel.

And that's what I want for Christmas, Santa.

JY896's picture

Happy 4th of July to Turd and all of Turdland - US and elsewhere

...we are all in this together, like it or not. Here's to the only day when I might consider drinking something that looked like this:

While I certainly have reservations, worries and 'cultural differences' with the current state of things here in the USA, I've always thought that the ideals of enlightenment (no, I don't mean Illumination), liberty and opportunity were a lasting and very significant contribution from the forefathers here to the annals of history -- whatever detractors of the lack of history and culture in the US might say. I've certainly benefited from them, and grateful for the opportunity.

 "A single lighted candle, can light a thousand other candles"

That's what I love about this place, it's not just a Watchtower keeping vigil, it is a literal Grecian urn burning in front of that parabolic mirror, providing not only light but a source of ignition to spread ideas with. I'm very happy to have met this motley crue of freewheeling miscreants.

When my friends and family ask me what I think of the US, whether I like it, I am always torn in how to answer. I have plenty of issues with many things here, from the shallowness of society at times, the plutocracy, the 'disposable' attitude toward everything -- including, alas, human relationships, the lack of knowledge (or interest) about the world and history. Yet I always answer: this is a country the size of a continent, with myriad natural beauties (both landscape and human), with 300M+ inhabitants and climates ranging from arctic to equatorial tropics. If you cannot find like-minded, valuable people to share your life with, and an environment that suits your temperament -- then the problem is with YOU, not the country. And I suppose that goes for the entire world, as well - complaining about Anglo-Saxon shortcomings is a futile exercise (my ancestral home has MUCH more than its fair share of back-stabbing, short-sighted, ignorant idiots).

But this was, 'til now, largely a rationalization, a theorem that had yet to be proven. Now I see that I was not fudging or far off from the truth.

As a kid, I used to like this song a lot -- it only recently came to my attention that there was perhaps more to it than our MSM masters deemed fit to disseminate to the wider public:

As I went walking I saw a sign there
And on the sign it said "No Trespassing."
But on the other side it didn't say nothing,
That side was made for you and me.
Nobody living can ever stop me,
As I go walking that freedom highway;
Nobody living can ever make me turn back
This land was made for you and me.
In the squares of the city, In the shadow of a steeple;
By the relief office, I'd seen my people.
As they stood there hungry, I stood there asking,
Is this land made for you and me?

Remember the idea, not the imperfect human manifestation of the current day -- may we all live to see the recognition of these self evident truths once more (or for the first time, as the case may be):

"When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government."

rl999's picture

not lol

(@ bluefin771 - Great post above the comex numbers and thinking objectively. hat tip, +1, yes)

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

Physics / 100 Greatest Discoveries

Bill Nye / Science Guy yes

historiography's picture

1776 was over slavery

Just one of many perspectives:

Founding fathers in their continued pursuit of power and wealth wanted western lands cleared of Indians so they could survey lands and take ownership.  This Colonial request caused the French-Indian (seven years) War and the Crown in return for the favor wanted payback, hence tax acts.  Tax became the red herring because the real revolution had taken place in England when they began outlawing slavery in 1772, the founding fathers saw the handwriting on the wall.  There were lots of other societal problems that needed a distraction such a spiritual revivalism, etc.  War solves everything, distracts the people so the politicians and bankers can steal wealth and power, a model perfected long before 1776.

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