Off And Running

Not only is the new week off to a good start for gold and silver, TurdTalksMetals is off to a good start, too. I, for one, am relieved on both counts.

Before we begin, just a few more words on the new site and this is very important:

The new site is designed for greater access. Greater access to my opinions and, perhaps more importantly, greater access to some of the biggest "names" in metals. As I've stated often, because you've made this site so popular, I now have access to people who I never could have contacted otherwise. The new site will give you a greater level of access to them, too, through conference calls and webinars. I really think it's going to be great fun and well worth the subscription cost. That said, please understand this: Nothing about TFMR will be changing. I'll still be here every day, posting new threads and I'll still offer bi-weekly podcast interviews. There should be no noticeable change. In fact, because of the PR associated with promoting the new site, TFMR should grow and become even more vibrant. Anyway, the main points are these:

  • I recognize that only a small percentage of you will likely join the new site.
  • That's perfectly fine but the more, the merrier. smiley
  • The new site will offer a higher level of interaction and access.
  • TFMR will not suffer because of this. It will, instead, grow stronger.

Just a couple of observations today. I played 36 holes of golf yesterday in a heat index of about 110. As you might imagine, I'm a little worn out.

First, very nice action in the metals today, especially in the face of terrible action in European and U.S. equities. That said, look where we are. The metals plunged last week when The Bernank opened his mouth (BIG surprise) but they recovered some today and...lo and behold...they are still rangebound and stuck in the same pattern that has contained them for the past eight weeks. All the wailing and grinding of teeth yet nothing has changed. Why? Why were all the naysayers and AGAs out over the weekend trying to convince you that the metals were doomed? You got me on that one. Gold has been stuck between 1530 and 1630 for nearly 2 months. At this moment, it's 1585...right in the middle. Silver has been stuck primarily between 27 and 29 with occasional forays above 29 and under 27. This afternoon it is 27.60. Yawn.

And, again, please don't misinterpret the post I made back on Saturday. (If you haven't read it yet, please do so. It's very important.) I firmly believe that physical demand is providing a solid floor under paper price. That said, The Cartels have to be salivating at the potential trading profits of dropping price through the expected sell stops under 1525 and 26. I've got to believe that would do anything to break price down and fleece the sheep once more. The problem is that darn physical demand. Can they break paper price down, even for just a few days or weeks, without getting seriously drained of metal? I don't know. All I'm saying though is this: IF this happens, do not be afraid. Instead, be prepared to take advantage of the final "sale" in price.

Next, the growing conflagration in Syria. You know that I'm not one for conspiracy theories regarding military and terrorist actions. However, the "Syria shooting down Turkish jets" thing I find quite odd. There was even a report over the weekend that, to pull this off, the Syrians were using their new Russian SAMs with direct Russian help. What the heck? Are they simply brazenly over-confident that their Russian benefactors will protect them or is something else in play here? And what about the timing of it all? Here we are on June 25...three days before the SWIFT system is closed to anyone transacting business with Iran. Is it just a coincidence that this is happening right now? I don't know but this sure doesn't seem to pass the smell test. ( http://www.zerohedge.com/news/turkey-claims-syria-fired-second-turkish-jet-says-act-wont-go-unpunished-has-invoked-nato-artic)

Lastly, in his latest newsletter, our pal John Butler has written about something that, heretofore has managed to escape our attention. It seems that back on June 4, the Fed, the OCC and the FDIC circulated a memo asking for comment on some proposed changes to the "regulatory capital risk-weighting framework". The big news is this: Perhaps by January 1, 2013, gold bullion will be reclassified as a "zero-risk" asset, similar in stature and safety to U.S. government bonds. Below is a C&P of John's salient points as well as an uploaded copy of the full report and a link to view it and download it yourself:

""Well, on 4th June the Federal Reserve, OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) collectively circulated a memo asking for comment on their proposed changes to the regulatory capital risk- weighting framework. Section 11, ‘Other Assets’, specifies that a “zero risk weight” is to be applied to “gold bullion held in the banking organization’s own vaults, or held in another depository institution’s vaults on an allocated basis...” Whoa. There you have it. As it stands now it would appear that, in the near future, banks will not have their regulatory capital ratios penalised for holding gold instead of government bonds as a safe- haven, zero-risk asset.
While the fundamental backdrop for gold is highly favourable and has been for some years, as the supply of money, credit and government bonds has grown dramatically, this technical aspect of the gold market is also clearly bullish. Indeed, as I wrote in The Canary in the Gold Mine, if gold is re-classified as a zero-risk-weighted asset, “the price is likely to soar to a new, all-time high.” I stand by that statement. In about six months we will know whether I am right, or whether I have misread this one.
Given the potential importance for gold, I’m surprised that this announcement has not been widely reported in the financial press, alternative or even mainstream. Perhaps this is due to the fact that, at this point, the re-classification of gold has only been proposed, not implemented. The change is not due to take effect until 1st January 2013.
With interest rates near zero, however, the opportunity cost of sitting on a non-interest-bearing gold position for six months is close to zero. Yes, gold may appear to be in a downtrend and, yes, it might have been unusually volatile of late, but unless the regulators backtrack, I see this as clearly bullish for gold, enabling much catch-up to Treasuries.
It remains to say something about why, perhaps, US regulators are poised to change bank regulatory risk weightings in favour of gold in this way. I do have some ideas about that. However, those will have to wait for a future Amphora Report.""

https://docs.google.com/file/d/131_n8V-zn4RP0hwWJw8uRKgaNl0DZyBvCDGjEbTAe7xCRiDOVkFvM7a8AaWZ/edit

Alright, that's it for now. I'm going to go take a nap. Have a great rest of your day!

TF

91 Comments

Big L's picture

First

Thanks Turd. I just signed up for the new site. Thanks and I'm proud to be able to help support the Turdville family and appreciate everything you do to help all of us each and every day.

tobydaniel's picture

Second!

Finally!

rocoach's picture

Good Luck

Good Luck to everyone - here's hoping we're off to a good start.  (was hoping for a third 1st in one week...)

Gramp's picture

Just Read the new post... let's see what #...

Glad to hear the new site is off and running!

Now to cover the fire wood pile before the big rain... So we need to buy less oil next winter! We heat entirely from wood from our land... Don't need no stinkin' Oil.

Kevin C's picture

Nap time

21 minutes since Turd posted and only 4 comments.  Turd can't be the only one napping.

Dr G's picture

Nice moves for both metals

Nice moves for both metals today. I won't be really excited until silver clears $30 again, and then $35, and then...well, you know.

If they are indeed salivating at dropping it below $26 to trigger stops, then they must also be pulling their hair out at the multiple attempts they've made to no avail.

I'm almost convinced from a logical perspective that they won't drop it below $26 because if they want to and could they wouldn't they have done it already? Maybe that's just foolish. The charts certainly say that it could happen from a technical perspective. A chart of the past year shows that silver looks very ill.

In any event, if they can't drop it maybe they'll just beat the tar out of us by having the price move sideways for months on end (interspersed with days like today where it goes up to get us feeling a little happy only to drop the hammer the following day).

I'm also curious to see what happens with SWIFT and the 28th and all the info that Turd and Sinclair have given to us regarding that. Santa was sure it would be a huge event. I think it has potential, but like most things there may not be any immediate consequences from it.

sevin's picture

Observations

From what I have noticed, when the price of PM's is down the traffic is down and less people comment and interact on the website. As price begins to rise, people begin to comment more. Turd what is the T.I.T.S. looking like these days. Good luck with the new website! I haven't decided if I am going to join, but most likely will as I have enjoyed all of the podcasts to date. Thanks for providing this wonderful service!

croc987's picture

Silver up?

The EE actually took the boot off our neck for a day.  Hey I feel your pain Turd, I played 18 yesterday and almost melted.  Be sure and rehydrate!

tpbeta's picture

Silver range

I would have said the silver range is $28 to $34, with forays to $26 and $36. That's still quite a lot of scope for traders and the cartel to make a lot of money. Blythe might just be happy to keep that model stable?

¤'s picture

Lull before...

...the storm is what it seems to be on many fronts right now.

The outcome of the battle of wills and forces in Syria will either strengthen or change the balance of power going forward in many ways.

Big power play going on and I see no one backing down. Quite the contrary.

Thanks for the update.

Number 47's picture

Bank update

Banks still not working here, now into a second week. My account still missing money. Online not updating. Getting a bit pissed off at it but waiting to see if the competitors will start offering anything to change. (I will be changing anyway after this)

It now looks like it was a software issue. Turns out they are hiring Indians on 9k a year to run systems that require someone who has been around for a while. I didn't see any benefits from this offshoring, all bonuses to executives I guess. Same story, different company.

Loads of people moving accounts. Loads of pissed off people. I am going in tomorrow to try and get some semblance of order restored to my account. My wifes is also in disarray, she checked online from Poland to find she is overdrawn by 1300+ euro. It should be in credit by 1500+. She won't be back till next week. Should be a good few charges on top by then.

It was reported today that National Irish Bank suffered a similar problem. (Totally unrelated) but had its systems back up and running by the afternoon.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/nib-confirms-technical-problems...

Still thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands without last weeks wages and monthly wages paid this week are not being received. This is having a knock on effect to all the other banks and companies as payments are rejected due to lack of funds.

RBS and Natwest customers can now get 100 pounds for free in the UK, (must be paid back but no charges) but Ulsterbank customers like myself, nothing. not that I need it but we are recognised as being the worst affected.

All in all, still a shitty situation.

Sneed Hearn's picture

Final Sale

It seems to me that the following statement with minor variations keeps being repeated: "Instead, be prepared to take advantage of the final "sale" in price." It seems that the imminence of doom for the bullion banks is regularly postponed. Personally, it seems to me that Trader Dan Norcini has a much better handle on what has been happening and manipulation by the EE is just part of the picture.

sixdollarsilver's picture

Nice one

Thanks for all you've done so far Turd and here's to the new sister site!

Turd Ferguson's picture

That wouldn't be surprising.

MODERATOR

That wouldn't be surprising. He's a very smart guy.

Response to: Final Sale
Magpie's picture

EO used to protect SOS?

“Last week it was reported that the State Department and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were deeply involved in the scandal known as Operation Fast and Furious, or Project Gunwalker. Today, however, new evidence has surfaced indicating that not only was Hillary deeply involved in the scandal but was one of the masterminds behind it.” Cont’d:

http://www.examiner.com/article/breaking-new-evidence-shows-hillary-a-mastermind-behind-gunwalker

stephanie's picture

@magpie Hillary and Fast & Furious

Wow. I have been a disillusioned former Hillary Clinton ever since she decided to back the Obama regime by being his SOS, and now this.

But part of me wonders if Obama isn't trying to throw her under the bus with this. Blame her so he can end up looking like the aggrieved victim. Would not surprise me. 

I Run Bartertown's picture

If the repubs

are smart, they'll make sure it lands in her lap.

The _resident is already damaged goods.

Be Prepared's picture

Congrats on the Launch of the Sister Site...TTM...

Turd.... thanks for all your efforts and willingness to continue this site in conjunction with the launch of the sister site.  Big Yellow Hat off to you...  :-)

DBean's picture

Stephanie...

My thoughts too...things aren't always what they seem. Wouldn't want to stand between those two camps. Read "The Shadow Party" a couple years ago...haven't looked at politics the same since.

bam's picture

@Dr G

Santa said some of the bite has been taken out of the 28th because the US gave a whole host of countries official 'wavers'.   Also, I'm sure there's going to be a lot of behind the scenes genuflecting with China.

Magpie's picture

stephanie

From the article:

The 'Steinberg' mentioned in the quote above is Hillary Clinton's former Deputy Secretary of State, who was appointed directly by Barack Obama and was considered from the start to be an 'Obama man' whose objective was to carry out the wishes of the President in the State Department.

It looks like he had to know.  If he can convince anyone he didn't,  it still makes him look damn stupid to not know what his SOS was up to.  I hope they're both sweating bullets over this.

¤'s picture

Sorry...

...couldn't resist cheeky

hillaryheston.jpg

Nick Elway's picture

Joel Skousen's comments on Russia supporting Syria

From WorldAffairsBrief.com 

RUSSIA SLOWS DOWN SYRIAN INTERVENTION FOR NOW

Even the establishment press was aflame with news that Russia was sending in warships and attack helicopters to support the Assad regime in Syria, but it was more hype than reality. Despite Hillary Clinton’s whining over the airwaves about offensive weapons, and getting the Brits to revoke the insurance on one Russian arms vessel heading to Syria, the incoming helicopters turned out to only be refurbished attack helicopters that were being returned to Syria.

The warships were another matter. The two Russian warships en route to Syria are assault troop ships, not anti-aircraft frigates as one would expect if Russia were to decide to actively threaten the US/NATO no fly zone. This is significant for a couple of reason: 1) it means the Russia will not engage US or NATO aircraft when the no-fly zone happens. 2) these Russian troops may be simply there as insurance against any US attack on the Russia naval base of Tartus. They could be also used as shock troops to stop rebel assaults that actually threaten Assad, but I think it’s unlikely given that the Syrian armed forces are some of the best in the Arab world.

If the Russians follow the pattern of letting allies fall to the US, as they did in Iraq and will do in Iran, they will also let Syria fall. However, they are inserting themselves more strongly in Syria only to build their reputation as the “only ones who will stand up to the US.” While I think they won’t follow through, it will continue to raise the world’s expectations that Russia is the one to look for to counter US continual intervention around the world. This, combined with the growing reputation of the US as the “bully of the world”, continues to point to an eventual world war between the great super powers, Russia and China vs the US and NATO.

cpnscarlet's picture

Turd = Soap

Turd - Still would like to hear any rebuttals of the Screwtape post about you and "Dave".

cpnscarlet's picture

Talk about "Inside Baseball"!

Three guesses who Santa's talking about, and you already used the first 2...

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/06/25/the-day-of-the-deflationists/

Magpie's picture

For IS7

I put your pic up on a political forum.   It only took a few minutes for someone to dress it up a bit:

Turd Ferguson's picture

How's this?

MODERATOR

I really couldn't care less about what they say. They mean nothing to me.

Response to: Turd = Soap
Wizdum's picture

pick it

played the pick 3 and the pick 4...

yyyeah

w00t

Wizard's picture

Would absolutely love to see

Would absolutely love to see a copy of the memo being circulated between the Federal Reserve, OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). Sounds like they are probing the waters publicly that they have been working towards as quietly as possible up until this point.

Ahh I can feel the wind beginning to hit the sails

W

Lamenting Laverne's picture

International waters or not international waters - that is the Q

The ZH article, that Turd links to, says that Syria has been shooting at the search and rescue plane as well.
 
You would think that if the first jet had "accidently" entered Syrian airspace for 5 minutes only (which apparently is a long time, when we talk about fighter jets) and it was shot down, that Turkey would be careful not to venture into Syrian airspace again, right?  
 
And if it is true, as Turkey claims, that that the jet was shot down after leaving Syrian airspace in international airspace and crashed in international waters, and that they know the exact location of the wreck as reported earlier by ZH, why would a search and rescue plane even need to fly close to danger in or near Syrian airspace again, if the wreck and the pilots they want to rescue are in international waters?
 
Could it be that the wreck is in fact in Syrian waters, and that is why the search and rescue plane had to enter the line of fire?
 
Could it be, that the whole story is a round of mumbo jumbo, since it was pretty toned down to begin with in the first reports, with Syria having expressed regrets according to Erdogan via ZH, and the pilots were reportedly alive and safe and had been recovered. One report said they were rescued in international waters by the Turkish forces, while another said that the Turkish authorities were seeking approval from Syria conduct a search and rescue, which can only mean, that they went down in Syrian territorial waters.
 
The search and rescue was reported to have started immediately on the 22-06, so isn't it odd that only as late as Monday the 25-06, Syria was said to have been shooting at the search and rescue plane, when the pilots were reported to have been rescued already on the 22-06. 
 
It was only after the Turkish emergency meeting, that the tone sharpened decidedly. Maybe some of the trigger-happy people participated in that meeting.
 
Sources:
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