Gone...For Good?
For weeks, I and others have been telling you about massive sovereign and central bank demand for physical metal at the current paper price. From this demand alone, we can infer quite a few things. Today, I can take it one step further.
First, some background. Members of "Turd's Army" become subscribers to Andrew Maguire's "DayTrades" and "MetalsTrades" service. This service allows traders to follow Andy's actions, thereby learning how and when Andy affects trades in the gold and silver markets. In it's own right, the service is very effective at producing consistent, monthly returns for his clients and the "Army". However, subscribers also have access to Andy's weekly "Market Commentary", which he posts every weekend. This commentary is always informative and provides subscribers with a sort "insider's perspective" which simply cannot be found anywhere else on the internet. No one has more experience, more wisdom and more contacts than Andy and, without question, subscribers benefit from the access he provides.
Similarly, I like to think that everyone here in Turdville benefits from the access that I am able to provide. I receive a lot of on-the-record and off-the-record information and I try to pass along as much of it as I can. Some of it is just speculation and some of it is the sort of "inside baseball" stuff that I attempt to further refine into nuggets that can help you plan for the future.
All of that said, what we now know is this. Beginning some time ago, but continuing today at an accelerating pace, physical metal is being purchased in London and then delivered out of the system. Under "normal" circumstances, this is not necessarily unusual. The bullion banks simply expect this metal to return to them at some point, where it can be re-leased, re-hypothecated and re-delivered in the future. This is how it has worked for decades. However, this time it's different.
What I have learned and have since been able to confirm via a second source is this: London Good Delivery bars are being delivered to Eastern buyers. Instead of being vaulted inside the LBMA system, these bars are being sent directly to refiners. The bars are then being melted and recast in 1 kilogram sizes. The new bars are then being stamped with official, government insignia and sent on to vaults outside of the LBMA system and points east, never to return again.
What does this mean and why is this important? Quite clearly this information, if accurate, has several significant ramifications:
- The Chinese and others are preparing for a new system. Whether it's simply a new gold pricing and delivery system to replace the LBMA/Comex or whether it's a new global trade settlement system that is guaranteed with gold is impossible to say, at this point.
- The physical gold supply of the LBMA and secondarily the Comex, much of which has been acquired/supplied through leasing, is being rapidly depleted and will not be coming back.
- The bullion banks, which have profited for years from leasing, trading, vaulting and the like, are about to feel the rather dramatic effects of this supply depletion.
As this pertains to the banks, last week I wrote this ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3893/still-pounding-away) and I think the auto dealer analogy is still a good one here. IF China and others are buying gold in London and IF the bullion banks are delivering to them leased and rehypothecated gold and IF the Chinese are taking this gold and melting it and IF they are then recasting it into non-LBMA, 1-kg bars, then the bullion banks have a serious problem on their hands. The delivered gold isn't coming back into "the system". It is no longer in "London Good Delivery" form. It's gone. For good.
My advice to you today is to ponder this information and its implications. Ask yourself these questions:
- If you vault gold within the current system, do you really own it?
- If the banks begin to scramble for physical metal, will paper price trade higher or lower?
- If the Chinese and others are planning for a new, international trade settlement system to supplant the U.S. dollar as reserve currency, what does that mean for the future value of the dollar? What would that mean for the future value of all fiat currency? What would that mean for the future value of gold and silver?
Perhaps now would be a good time to go back and review this post, too. (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3885/last-desperate-acts) At 34,000+ views, most of you have already read it. Maybe it's time to read it again.
Think. Look around. Trust your instincts. Prepare accordingly.
TF
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Comments
TITS UP
I can't wait until the days when we're all on here talking about the high and perky TITS index.
Let's hope it starts tomorrow around 12:30 ET.
Another beauty from Clive Maund
I wish I was making this up. Clive Maund has gone from saying "stay the course" and "stupendous silver rally" to now saying expect a crack to 20-21. Just incredible. How on earth can people pay for this?
The best thing Clive is for is a contrarian indicator. So I guess Clive is really saying 45 by Friday ??
What a joke. Yes, I am sick of it.
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67
Sorry to burst the bubble but ;
Lol that any of you think predictions made far out in time in terms of price are possible is incredible. NO ONE, NO ONE. Knows what price we will be at in 12months. You can argue your case for higher or lower but that's about it. to say gold will hit $5000 or silver $500 by that time is a joke and anyone who does it that far out in time is guessing.
But for anyone who wants to believe that shit is possible I offer a forecasting service based upon tea leaves that I will be starting on the first of July....One free reading with every price prediction
HAWK
I guarantee price will be higher than were we are closing today at some point in the next 12 months. That is all.
ancientmoney
"you'll have have to pry their cold, dead fingers off those controls."
That's really been Plan A for me all along...just waiting for everyone else to burn through their plan A, B, etc. and get serious.
FACT: System Has NOT Collapsed
Also, Greece is once again in the news.
So, what can we learn from these simple facts?
I dislike complexity when attempting to analyze things. My brain naturally looks for simplicity, for which I can logically make connections. It is how I have managed to get to this place in life so far.
So, I do not place too much faith in technical analysis, or any of the financial machinations which are constantly ongoing of which I am utterly ignorant to understand let alone analyze.
What I CAN do, is pay attention to things that are real, tangible, and from there, I can try to make simple connections that withstand analysis and scrutiny. It is just a method I use to try to discern order from a constant stream of information.
Let's look at two facts: (1) there was a financial crisis in 2008; (2) Greece has no current government.
What has happened since the 2008 financial crisis? Was there a financial system collapse? No. Was there fiat rejection? No. Was there an Argentinian-style currency devaluation? No. Did recipients of government transfer payments fail to receive their monthly checks? No. Did gold priced in dollars soar? Not really, but sort of. Did silver priced in dollars soar? Yes, then crashed, too.
Can we draw any conclusion from these provable, observable facts? Yes. Whoever is in charge of the "system," whether some nebulous TPTB, or an unlinked group of individual actors each acting for their own self-interest, what we do absolutely know for sure, is that the system DID NOT COLLAPSE. SO, WHY NOT? It was either luck, or purpose.
Can we then deduce that whoever acted after 2008 did so in a positive way, that is, a system-maintaining way? Was it luck? Was it by design? Was it by some combination of luck and design? We do know that there was activity, both from the US FED as well as govt. Can it legitimately be claimed that whoever acted, that their actions were SUCCESSFUL? I say yes, IF one happens to be a beneficiary of the current system, whether TBTF banks, or govt transfer payment recipients, or public union employees, or GM union employees, etc. I say NO, if one happens to be a saver, or a wage-earner dependent upon the private sector and not a publicly-funded job. Again, it depends upon one's view point, does it not?
So, at what point will us regular folk--that is, folks who work for a living, deriving their means from private work, and not from government revenue streams--get to decide whether the current system is a success or not? Is that not the question?
How is "success" going to be defined going forward?
Let's look to the Greeks. Their country is wrecked, broken, we all see it, know it, and watch it daily as it somehow still chugs along, debt-laden and all. How can this be? How has there not been a collapse, and a rejection of the onerous, odious debt burdens?
The choices are: (1) they are lucky; (2) it is by design; or (3) some combination.
Who here rationally believes that the Greeks are lucky? So, it is by design, then, right? By who's design, then?
Is it not clear that the banksters run the world? The debt CANNOT be ALLOWED to be defaulted on, as Iceland has so clearly shown. If the Greeks repudiated the debt, told the Germans so sorry, no debt repayment for you, then would not the Greeks have the upper hand? Yes, but only if their citizens actually grabbed an oar and helped row the boat. The Greek citizens are JUST LIKE THE BANKSTERS, IDENTICAL. The Greeks make promises they know they cannot keep. The take Euro's with no intention of paying them back. Each time they make more promises they know they have no intention of keeping, while the banksters loan more Euro's knowing the Greeks will not pay them back. Insanity, right?
So, what can we deduce from this?
Until the sheeple wake up and demand sound money, nothing will change. The collapse is not going to happen any time soon. Conditions will get worse, Romney will storm in with a new agenda. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Then what?
TPTB do not want to end the system yet. They can keep this charade alive for years and years. Know and understand that, and do not be blind to that inescapable fact.
What then, will change the system? I say: internecine squabbles, perhaps war, nothing else will change it.
So, shall we hope for an Iran conflict? How about another 4 years of Obummer? What is better? Accelerating the demise, or trying to change course and prolong the agony?
This was a long post, but I wanted to chime in with the Turd's comments about power transferring to the East. I see China as the key to all of this.
I wish there was some source of actual information, who would go on record and lay it all out.
Anyhow, thanks for reading.
Capping vs. Takedowns
So this is an unquestionable pattern change , three weeks in duration. Varying interpretations obtain. 1630 and 29, whats the scoop.
Well the London Telegraph just announced that the ECB would buy about a trillion US in Spanish and Italian bonds, in an effort to break the rate lift. This probably presupposes something friendly at 12;30 tomorrow, there is little point and no lasting effectiveness in half measures. So beardo at minimum talks friendly.
Equivalently intriguing is this most odd capping vs. takedowns, this is a pattern change, and it begs the question.
One answer is found on the charts, the takedowns get underway, the vertical drops get rolling, then bang , they stop, they not only stop, they often immediately and equivalently reverse. Vertical downs beget vertical reciprocals.
The reasonable inference would be a wall of willing buyers, I guess we find this out at noon Wednesday, when quivering lips lets it rip.
Or, and so tempting, why smash what you are long, and just perhaps the JPM silver short is a mask. So cap rather than smash.
Now when Blythe goes short , in the clear , 5000 new silver contracts, uh, its kinda cute, dare I say deceptive, its too florid, its classic misdirection.
The fishmongers daughter is the antithesis of short, she is so long she doesnt know if its Tuesday or cold rice pudding, think opacity, think OTC.
The thieves have shifted massively long, gold is managed by price, its simply too expensive for underwater homeowners, so jack and elsie aint playing at 1750 for a picayune coin.
Macau plays though, merrily, the freighters arrive daily, groaning with silver bullion, so the logic of giving it away at half its price of 32 years ago becomes very counterintuitive. or if you prefer witless. Really dumb policy.
Nobody is exiting their dollars for an 1800 dollar coin, forget it, but for 56 grey ones , well, thats different.
Slow silver boats to China make increasingly less sense, not at 29, maybe at 290, but 29 is inconversant with common sense. After all , adjusting for the debauchery of the paper over the 32 years since it traded at 50 in 1980 , wich is about times eight, further adjusted for supply then and supply now, .. 12 billion ounces are now a liars one. More likely there is none, witness the convenient bankruptcies of Solyndra and Kodak, not to mention their their thoughtful receivers, JP Morgan.
Silver explodes, it spikes so ugly its untouchable, and becomes just as unbuyable as gold as it crosses into triple digits, and keeps on going. The Macau dockhands suddenly stop their paroxyms of mirth, now they pay a fair market price, and Blythe keeps that iron face stitched on , she is so long its illegal.
worst thing about 4 mo obozo years
is 4 retiring supremes and his EPA.
otherwise he could take the fall for the BIGBADABUST coming.
while it's been brewing for 40 years, its not like he has done anything to forestall it.....
and then there is having to dive for the remote to 'mute' his arrogant a**.
withoutwax
thanks for those points. i feel as if i've been fooled pretty good a few times in my life. this is not something we can afford to be fooled by
@hawk
No, there is no bursting of the bubble. I just find it tiring when guys go out and sell and sell and sell, and pretend to know what is happening, when the reality is no one has a clue. I struggle to find the right words for it- charlatan? But that seems overused. Flip-flopper? Maybe.
It is just incredible that people actually pay for this crap. Your tea leaves have as good a chance as anything being right. While I agree silver/ gold will be higher in a year, how many here HONESTLY thought we would be at 28.xx and 16xx? Blythe and co have done a heck of a job keeping a lid on price, and every "manipulation!!" comment helps them keep others from entering the market. So it's all a charade- guess I should start a pay service where I am right <1% of the time? And then can call KWN to promote it by saying "silver is going to $1000."
As always, I am bullish. But there is only a one letter difference between bullish and bullish*t.
But WTFDIK.
off topic...
...but some relatives who live in the US just asked me where to buy silver!
for mint boxes, I suggested tulving, but for smaller quantities I humbly have to ask the locals ;-)
anyone knows where to get the most bang for the buck in the US for orders above 100 Maples or Eagles?
Gold More than 50% Below Real
Gold More than 50% Below Real Record High of 32 Years Ago
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/mark-o-byrne/gold-more-than-f...
Keep Stacking
Underpaid, underemployed and
Underpaid, underemployed and barely making ends meet
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47872983/ns/business-us_business/#.T-DqSI7FAqY
MUBARAK DEAD
Breaking News: Egypt's Mubarak unconscious and on respirator, not clinically dead: security sources
Egyptian ex-president Mubarak clinically dead: sources
5:45pm EDT
CAIRO - Hosni Mubarak, who ruled Egypt for three decades until overthrown by a revolution in the "Arab Spring" last year, was declared clinically dead by his doctors on Tuesday, the state news agency MENA said in a report confirmed by a hospital source.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/19/us-egypt-mubarak-death-idUSBRE85I1ME20120619
Hinde Capital Report
Britain doomed,
apparently
Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jun 19 16:15.
A warning to Great Britain from UK-based investment fund Hinde Capital (a hedge fund that specializes in precious metals):
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/06/19/1050451/britain-doomed-apparently/
Full Report here
http://media.hindecapital.com/attachments/reports/full/129/original/Eyes_Wide_Shut_Part_I.pdf
@CA Lawyer
>So, shall we hope for an Iran conflict? How about another 4 years of Obummer? What is better? Accelerating the demise, or trying to change course and prolong the agony?
I don't see how anyone on here can, in good conscience, hope for war/conflict in order to speed up the demise of the system. (not saying you were)
>This was a long post, but I wanted to chime in with the Turd's comments about power transferring to the East. I see China as the key to all of this.
This is the most important point, which many people completely discount, when discussing TPTB. TPTB is essentially the western world bankers and associated politicians/businessman (who wield that power through the western world financial system). But there are other players in the game. Players with competing (and quite often opposite) interests. China, Russia, Brazil, most of South America, most Asian countries, etc. I even think you'll find Germany in that crowd at the end of the day.
At the end of the day, these competing interests will have their say, regardless of what TPTB want/need/do.
Romney to speak at NAACP next month
http://www.breitbart.com/system/wire/CNG---3ff6b80e76f3a531701730d791b3fa9f---1c1
What a pointless exercise in pandering. Republicans and Tea Partiers can't help but fall all over themselves doing crap like this...they should be moving to block taxpayer funding and stop the corporate race shakedowns.
@ achmachat
Try apmex or gainsville coins - the only downside to a LCS is sales tax i've found that gets added on.
Cal lawyer . . . you asked . . .
What can change the system? Productive people who buy real physical gold and silver. Not just talk about it, then buy SLV or GLD, but actually shuck off their paper crap, and buy the physical. Many, many people doing this breaks their backs. That is why, with all their might, they are keeping silver and gold under their thumbs--so it looks like a dangerous, bad investment to the sheep. So the sheep will say, "I think Facebook is a safer play than schizo silver and gold."
adrock
thanks, I actually suggested apmex because so many people around here seem to use it to check real-world bullion prices.
Huh?
@California Lawyer: I understand that you pointed out the current state of affairs and your belief that this could go on for some time? Am I missing something?
Gosave - I cannot really figure out what you wrote about. Is English your first language? ;-)
B
How did you go broke?
Two ways...gradually and then suddenly.
Edit: Everything is set, the system is broken already...it will take one miscalculation and down she comes, imao.
@ recaptureamerica
That article you linked is right on for what i have been seeing first hand.
A side story... @ the Barber shop the other day and this guy in his 60's was talking about what a mess the economy is blah blah blah. He summed it up by saying,
"I'm sure glad I'm not in my 30's right now and be handed this mess for my later years!"
As I AM... it was all i could do to not growl at this 'Gentleman'
My Barber,an older gentleman, who is a savvy investor himself, as well as a good person, said nothing when that pompous fellow finished his rant.
For that i respect my Barber even more. I have known him for 20+ years.
He was funny during silver's run up! He would say " I knew i should have been in silver, but I was lazy, and it's a bit late."
During that time I asked him what he thought silver would do, and he called the yet to be action very accurately.
$15 hair cut... and the best market predictions anywhere for free!
Anyway, short stories from the front lines!
Mudsharkbytes Goes Global !
Thanks for sharing you and your wife's pillow talk with the global investment community ! Man to man .... don't ever let your man boobs get within 50% of your wife's real boobs .... that's her domain and she will protect her turf like a lioness protects her cubs ! She may be laughing with you now .... but push it too far and you'll never make it to your Golden Anniversay ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Community Property State Of Mind
@ C.L.
Your quote "How is success going to be defined going forward ?" is the key. The entire world is in a blender and we really have zero control over the outcome. Who or what has their finger on the blender on/off switch?? Some say TPTB or evil banksters or secret billion dollar empires or the Masons. Others see the prince of darkness and the true evil empire pushing the buttons.
But the question is what defines success? If we have a strong, healthy family, a great home life, a garden filled with vegetables, a can house stocked with canned goods, a secure piece of land away from the inner cities, hard working adult children who have a work ethic, children who show love and respect for the older generation, children who have the inner mark of Life & Peace and not the outer mark of tattoos, offspring who have never known drugs nor the courts, these are the things that make up for success.
If we could change the world to the way we would want it and we did not have the other items listed above, we would still not have success. It really does not matter who will be in the White House the next four years or thirty years. We have past the point of a healthy America.
I mentioned in a post that I was in Kalispell,Montana this week and saw several people asking the citizens to repent of their deeds. I did not see any line. If the nation does not turn from its current direction, much tribulation awaits. jmo
LCS tax depends on which
LCS tax depends on which state and how much is purchased. Some states none at all no matter how little purchased, some states like TN charge about 9% regardless of the amount purchases.
IMO, best bang for the buck is gainesvillecoins.com. Silver Doctors has pretty darn good prices with ASE's. Basically matches Tulving at 500oz. For 100 oz he is only spot+2.69 +$20 s/h, that is only twenty cents over tulving. http://www.silverdoctors.com/sd-bullion-buy-gold-buy-silver/
edit: Those cheap Doc prices are for random date ASE. 2012 are higher. That makes more sense. Still has good prices though.
@Bam
I was just expressing frustration, in my little way. It is VERY difficult to remain unaffected by the constant, idiotic decisions being made by those in charge. We all see it so clearly here; yet, the drivel on television, the total lack of reporting on any of this, the diversions, the bread and circuses if you will, it is all so frustrating, especially when we all know the system cannot possibly keep going on and on without change. Yet, the system keeps on going.
I am making a statement, yes. I am NOT advocating war. In fact, we should be withdrawing from countries all over the world, just like Ron Paul said. Oh well. Thanks for not being too hard on me.
President
Coming on TV later. No reason given.
My guess is something about Fast and Furious or a G 20 and/or Syria update of sorts.
CALawyer...wicked post earlier. Way to let it rip and get it out of your system.
@bugzy
It is more than that. It is not my belief that things could go on like this for a long time, it is, sadly, my acceptance of the reality that despite what I know, and can see, that still, TPTB manage to keep the game afloat.
For example:
Obummer unilaterally, unconstitutionally, refuses to uphold the constitutional requirement that he uphold the laws of the USA, by enforcing federal immigration law. Instead, he suspends a portion of the law, a waiver for a special, privileged class of persons he alone deems worthy, and refuses to follow the law. He did this openly, brazenly, with no regard for consequences, surely of which he knows will never come given the current state of things.
Why don't we all just admit that we have lost our country already? Which occupier of the White House will EVER relinquish power? It matters not who wields it. It only matters that the occupier has taken it, unconstitutionally, from Congress. Who is brave enough to stand up to the tyrant, King Obummer?
When the media refuse to question this, when talking heads spring-load to trip over themselves supporting the dictator Obummer, when the Praetorian Guards surrounding the occupier flaunt laws and no one goes to jail, well then, we do not have a democracy, we have a dictatorship don't we?
Why would the banksters want to chance it? Why would they not want to keep the system in place? They will keep it in place. And we all will watch as our freedoms drain away and wonder where they went.
I know the solution is for the folks to awaken, but how to pry them away from the idiot box? How is it conceivable to believe that someone who pays zero taxes will somehow rise up and act to stop the very handouts that keep that person alive?
Collapse will be bad, sure, but is it not the only way to rid the system of its corruption and warped incentives?
So, yes, I am frustrated. And I do apologize for taking a lot of words to express it, but not really.
Ricky Roo - Safe stores for metal
My view after much investigation is that Bullion Vault offers safe storage, but it could be argued that it's hard to completely remove risk (just as it is with a stack at home if TSHTF). Geographical diversification is an advantage (if you don't trust your own govt).
btw Anyone interested in BullionVault, or with views on the issue, can visit the thread recently set up by Fr Bill -
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3921/bullion-vault-users-thread#comm...
Thanks IndigoStar7
Feels better already. Glad I can come here and rant, and no one tries to slip a straightjacket on me . . .
Just feeling very upset at the latest arrogance from Obummer and the captured media.
Why is the media starting now to point out the warts on Obummer? MOPE, right? Exactly.
So, we know what that means. Romney is the chosen one. Who will be his running mate? Who will be Obummer's running mate when Biden suddenly takes ill, and withdraws? Will TPTB force Biden to stay on the ticket? If there is a new VP on Obummer's ticket, that will certainly invite some curiosity, won't it?
Anyhow, I am going to go run some hill repeats . . .