Not All That Glitters Is Gold
Since it has been almost a year since overt QE ended, I thought it might be instructive to take a look this morning at some "commodities" and how they have fared over the past 12 months. Something tells me the next 12 months won't be quite the same...
A year ago, when QE2 ended, commodities were soaring. Since then, not so much. With commodities, there are always other factors such as weather and geo-politics that affect price, so we have to take that into account, too. But these are "localized" phenomena in that hot, dry weather in Iowa has a great impact on corn but a minimal impact on sugar or crude. Monetary policy, however, has the power to affect things, across the board.
So, how have prices and conditions changed over the past 12 months? Let's take a look at the big four foods: soybeans, wheat, corn and sugar. Of the four, only soybeans have held in there, unchanged in price since last June.

Wheat is down about 15% and has been stuck in a range between $6 and $7/bushel for most of the past year.

Corn has been nasty (-23%) and looks like it might remain that way for a while longer. Watch the weather, though. It's beginning to dry out in the American Midwest. If this continues and deteriorates, corn will turn sharply higher, regardless of what the chart says.

And sugar has been brutal. Down over 30% since last July, it recently broke down even further and fell from 24 to 19 in about 6 weeks. Yikes!

So, the question is: How much farther can these fall? Well, obviously, they could fall even further. Who knows? But...if you think that we are once again on the edge of a massive, global money-printing event...perhaps they've fallen as far as they're going to. Again, anyone interested in fiddling around with the "big four" should take a look at the "DAG", an ETF which is comprised of futures contracts, equally divided between all four. Here's a link: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DAG+Profile
We've got to take a look at crude here, too. Frankly, it's amazing that crude has fallen over 20% in the past 6 weeks yet gold and silver have traded sideways. Why crude has fallen from $105 to $81 is a mystery to me, that's for sure, as the geo-political "dynamics" don't seem to have materially improved. Regardless, crude near $80 sure seems like a bargain. As discussed here in the past, anyone wanting to "roll the bones" a bit on crude should take a look at the "UCO". http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=UCO+Profile

Just a couple more things before we go take on the day. (MrsF is already hollering at me, so it promises to be a long one. Please pray for me.) First, if you haven't yet, please take 3 minutes to watch Nigel Farage discuss current events in front of his pals in the European Parliament.
And you should circle June 19 on your calendar. That day, Paul Coghlan is giving a free webinar that you should consider attending. Paul is Andrew Maguire's business partner but he is also an outstanding technical analyst, in his own right. Again, the webinar is free and I'm confident that you'll learn a few things. You can read more and sign up by clicking this link: http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/3767
OK, that's it for now. The metals are following along yesterday's gains quite nicely on the back of continued strong demand in London. Let's hope this keep going. Again, my main goal for this week is to close above 1610 and 29. Anything beyond there is gravy.
TF
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Comments
Pre-Birthday Turd Rocker
See link below
I was more pissed than I should have been!
I was using my phone, and had to login... I remember I got my username incorrect because of the spacing on H - original, and then fat-fingered my password... by the time I was logged in, there were 3 posts already and the wind was gone from my sails... I'm not giving up mind you... maybe in the next 52 weeks I'll get there.
Pre-Birthday Turd Rocker
More BD Frontrunning!!!
http://www.jibjab.com/view/9FhthaedyUX2xw4l9eOS
Lol
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012...
Greek Bank Run Update: Up To $1 Billion A Day Now
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-bank-run-update-1-billion-day-now
Hmmmm sooner than later the well runs dry of moolah, no?
Stackabit or pileofshit? .....Decisions, decisions.
EU Parliament
Yes, Foxenburg. Living in the EU, I am only too aware of the limitations of the Parliament. That's why their pay and perks are so offensive. That is also why it is full of deniers and zombies. Powerless and worthless - except a few, like Farage and Hannan.
However it is sociopaths that inhabit the Commission and are heads of state. They are the dangerous ones.
Sociopaths
Sociopaths are the heavy-metals-poisoned, brain-fried human monsters who rage through society, threatening others, running scams and committing fraud. They are the quacks, the hucksters, and the killers. In the medical industry, they're the doctors who enjoy delivering electroshock therapy to children. In the dental industry, they're the dentists who put patients under with anesthesia and then rape them in their chairs. In the natural health industry, they're the hollow-eyed monsters selling toxic "miracle" products that poison your brain with aluminum or mercury.
Do not confuse Sociopaths with Zombies. Sociopaths are usually brilliant wordsmiths and often acquire powerful skills of social influence. Many are even able to attract a kind of cult following, which they often exploit for their own mass death agendas (Jim Jones, Charles Manson, Marshall Applewhite, etc) (http://www.naturalnews.com/036112_sociopaths_cults_influence.html).
Sociopaths are completely incapable of feeling remorse, compassion, guilt or shame. This allows them a surprising tactical advantage for gaining power in both the corporate and government worlds, where being a backstabbing psychopath is the fastest way to get ahead. This is why Sociopaths often rise to the top of government agencies and globalist corporations.
Sociopaths are fantastic liars. They lie just as easily as putting on a pair of sock in the morning. They lie so well that they often fool themselves into thinking they are telling the truth. Their lies are skillfully woven around a tiny shred of proof to make them believable. Sociopaths believe that whatever they say becomes reality merely because they say it. Weak-willed people are easily fooled into thinking that sociopaths are "gurus" or prophets.
Roughly 4% of the U.S. population are sociopaths. There's even a book written about this: The Sociopath Next Door. (http://www.amazon.com/Sociopath-Next-Door-Martha-Stout/dp/0767915828) It says:
In The Sociopath Next Door, Harvard psychologist Martha Stout reveals that a shocking 4 percent of ordinary people -- one in twenty-five -- has an often undetected mental disorder, the chief symptom of which is that that person possesses no conscience. He or she has no ability whatsoever to feel shame, guilt, or remorse. One in twenty-five everyday Americans, therefore, is secretly a sociopath. They could be your colleague, your neighbor, even family. And they can do literally anything at all and feel absolutely no guilt.
How do we recognize the remorseless? One of their chief characteristics is a kind of glow or charisma that makes sociopaths more charming or interesting than the other people around them. They're more spontaneous, more intense, more complex, or even sexier than everyone else, making them tricky to identify and leaving us easily seduced. Fundamentally, sociopaths are different because they cannot love. Sociopaths learn early on to show sham emotion, but underneath they are indifferent to others' suffering. They live to dominate and thrill to win.
Sociopaths are found everywhere. Bad cops areSociopaths with a badge. Many regulations agencies are staffed with power-tripping Sociopaths who get off on the misuse of their power (TSA being the classic example).
Sociopaths almost always have a history of child abuse, and / or mutilating small animals.
Summary of the Sociopath Archetype:
Cognitive capabilities: High.
Moral compass: Chaotic. Varies wildly from saintly to demonic.
Desired agenda: Mass death.
Worships: Himself.
Typical dress: "New Agey" or ragged clothing.
When you're not looking, they will: Molest your daughter.
Learn more:http://www.naturalnews.com/036159_zombies_sociopaths_deniers.html#ixzz1xhdCTFl6
SurvivalBlog - Rawles Warning
I've been following SurvivalBlog about as long as I have followed Turd (back in the Watchtower days). James Rawles has provided a steady stream of prudent advice and opinion throughout which was why today's latest post took me a bit by surprise:
"As of today, Wednesday, June 13, 2012, I strongly urge all SurvivalBlog readers to immediately draw down their checking accounts and liquidate their CDs, passbook savings accounts, and most of the their stocks to buy tangibles."
He always advocates preparedness, but this has a sense of urgency to it. It sounds like he thinks things are moving in the wrong direction pretty quickly!
This arrogant SOS... Jamie
This arrogant SOS...
Jamie Dimon Hearing, Explained: “Frustrating, Maddening and Comical”
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/jamie-dimon-hearing-explaine...
I'm wondering what could be accomplished and learned if we motivate REAL terrorists like this JD schmuck, the way we "motivate" SUSPECTED terrorists?
Getting ready to stack
I admit that I am not as smart as many of the people on this site, but to my credit, I have been stacking since 2006. Because of some of the great information I have read on this site in the last three days, I am getting ready to pull the trigger on my biggest buy of physical yet. Thank you all for your great advice.
Nobel Prize Winnings Slashed
Nobel Prize Winnings Slashed 20 Percent
The sagging global economy has caused the Nobel Foundation to scale back cash prizes to $1.1 million
Now more than ever, those vying for a Nobel Prize aren't in it for the money.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/06/12/nobel-prize-winnings-slas...
Cripes! I could save them the entire amount! Don't give it to wannabes.
Dolphindude, that makes you a
Dolphindude, that makes you a genius in my book
gold/oil ratio
Ooops. My previous posting was supposed to contain a chart of the gold/oil ratio as well. Here are the annual averages with WTI spot for oil
And here are the daily values, but with Brent (note that Brent sets the price internationally whereas WTI is trapped in Oklahoma and is difficult to export):
Apart from 2008/9 (an the end of the 1980s), the ratio looks remarkably stable, doesn't it?
Sincerely,
Victor
First's, How and Why ?
H - Original,
It makes me laugh, your explanation of missed opportunity. I laugh not at YOU but at the situations which cause many of us to do the ol' Homer Simpson "DoH".
I generally ignore the first ten or so posts because of the numerical calling thing, and I tend to ignore the folks who are giving others grief about doing this thing. But now my curiosity is peaked and I wonder exactly what one does, physically, to attempt to be the "First". Do you sit at the terminal and keep hitting refresh, waiting for a new thread ? If so, WHY ?
Now I am not trying to be judgmental here, everyone should do as they please. If this gives pleasure well then have-at-it. I guess I just don't understand the motivation. Nonetheless, it does seem to be an integral part of the Turd experience we are all sharing here. Good hunting to you and all those first wannabee's.
I've been feeling a lil down lately...
so here is one to cheer everyone up.
Victor, where do you see this
Victor, where do you see this ratio headed in the next 6-18 months? I always thought 30 and higher was very likely.
Only prediction of theirs that will be correct
Wall Street's Buffett, Blankfein predict 'tough' economic times ahead of election
http://thehill.com/video/in-the-news/232245-blankfein-buffett-predict-to...
..of course they have had a big part in the creation of it.
..and they did this before the bell!
Egan Who Just Gave Spain The Triple Hooks
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/egan-who-just-gave-spain-triple-hooks
No wonder the ECBs want to boycott the rating cos
Up the intensity
it seems like a few different bloggers are increasing the intensity and shortening the timeframe for their predictions. does anyone have more info on this?
the writing has been on the wall regarding banks, european banks, governments, wars, middle east, for a long time - has anything changed that would lead us to believe something is around the corner (within days or a week)?
@recaptureamerica ... Thanks
I read and read, and think, and think some more and weigh things back and forth. The money is coming from my pension, so for a start, I am taking a 30 per cent hit. One hopes that one is doing the right thing and will not end up broke or dying poor, or causing my wife a lot of grief, or losing the respect of friends and relatives. While I am waiting for the money to be transferred to my bank account and getting a bank draft to purchase the metal, the price is going up. I told my sisters about my plans the other day and they said they were both very worried about some of their investment returns of one or two per cent interest. I am sure that I am doing the right thing, and that now is the right time.
@StartThe Purple
I also read that by Rawles. It is quite disturbing & I am not sure if I'm ready to follow the advice. It seems very drastic. But, then again, losing everything is even more so. Looking for answers. I surely won't get it from my UBS guy (got money holed up there in a CD & some more that matured & is not earning anything, which I am getting ready to yank due to these rumors) or my accountant. By the way, it's only at UBS because that's where my Mother had it in stocks before she passed in 2005. Me & myt siblings took it out of the Exxon stocks & I converted my portion into CDs because I didn't have enough knowledge about the market to invest in anything else. I have been voicing concerns of an economic collapse for at least 3 years now & they look at my like I'm crazy. I really could use a financial expert with a crystal ball.
I also have another question. I was on ebay just checking out prices & got to wondering why are these people (not coin shops, but individuals) who have purchased monster boxes are selling? If they bought it cheaper, why sell, just hang onto it. The only thing I can think of is that they are selling off to have cash for bills, as needed. I have read that the currency of the elite is gold & that they just keep converting it to dollars as needed. So, I wonder if they are simply doing the same thing on a smaller scale. Maybe I'm overlooking the obvious. Any thoughts, anyone? Just curious.
I went back to work at 56 1-1/2 years ago. Couldn't find anything in my administrative field, ended up taking a PT retail job that started at $7.50/hr. Better than nothing I figured. I'm still there. The bright side is it went to FT, pays $10.50/hr. (still crummy) now & I get benefits. Husband is self-employed in construction (ugh) & we were taking $2000/mo. out of savings for health ins. every month. I got fed up with that, so at least I'm earning the benefits now. Also, I could actually walk to work if I needed to. Hey, I've been trying to be proactive.
I realize I'm divulging alot here, but WTH. Any suggestions are greatly appreciated.
This reminds me of the good
This reminds me of the good ole' days, when silver would only move 30 cents in a 24 hour period. Check out the Kitco chart. 80 cents in the past 3 days. ZZZzzZZzZZz. Back to work I suppose...
Wow
Just read a couple of comments & it seems others are asking the same question. We need a crystal ball.
well, this is fun
@NancyDrew A lot of people sell silver on ebay...
....to make money. As to the rest of your post, I think everyone, esp. those on this site, are asking the same questions you are. Best advice would be to use PMs as a hedge. I wouldn't "throw in the towel" on other forms of equity just yet. You have to do what makes you most comfortable. Personally, I don't think an economic collapse is in our immediate future. However, I don't have all my eggs in one basket.
Bottle Rockets?!?
Seriously?!? They are a Miner's Union and they couldn't get the guy with the explosives to join the strike? Lamers. No wonder no one is willing to pay them more...
OI thoughts
A/o yesterday, the total silver OI is back to 122,080. This exceeds the level of last Wednesday when silver OI hit 121,317. That 6/6 level was the highest the silver OI had been since 4/24/12. Recall that silver was trashed for $1 the very next day, 6/7. Just sayin...
For the CoT reporting week, we have:
Gold was DOWN a whole $2 but with a wide range. Total gold OI FELL by 11,700 contracts. Undoubtedly, this was Cartel closing shorts that were added the previous week. Expect a "bullish" CoT for gold.
Silver was UP 54c on the reporting week. Total silver OI rose by nearly 5,300 contracts. I expect a not-so-bullish silver CoT as I'm quite sure that JPM was adding shorts, not only last Thursday but all week long.
Finally, as mentioned above, yesterday saw the total OI in silver rise by 2,400 contracts to 122,080. From a straight, "Happy Tuesday" perspective, I would have expected total OI to decline on the short-covering to paint the CoT. I still think that this was happening...so...how many new longs entered? Maybe I was wrong, at least in silver. Maybe yesterday wasn't a Happy Tuesday? Maybe yesterday was simply a rally, brought upon by fresh spec buying? I don't know. Let's wait for Friday for some clues.
The total gold OI only increased by 400 on a $17+ move. This has Happy Tuesday written all over it.
@dolphindude
>One hopes that one is doing the right thing and will not end up broke or dying poor, or causing my wife a lot of grief, or losing the respect of friends and relatives.
It's a damn shame that money (financial decisions) can cause problems with spouse, friends and relatives. But it's the way of the world, and has been for time immemorial. Hopefully enough of the good ones stick around.
>The money is coming from my pension, so for a start, I am taking a 30 per cent hit.
I'm a fair bit younger than you (judging from your comment), but if it makes you feel any better, I've already cashed out 3 IRAs in the past few years (1 Traditional, 1 Roth, and 1 Inherited). The tax hit was painful, but my simple rationalization is as follows:
1. over the next 10-20 years, are taxes going up or down (including hidden taxes - ie printing money)? My guess is up, so I'll take the tax rates as they are now and get control of my money.
2. Are restrictions going up? Yes. I believe withdrawal penalties will only increase with time.
3. Are regulations going up Yes. I believe 'the rules' of retirement accounts will be monkeyed with, once the govt figures out a way it can take advantage of all those 'surplus' funds out there....without inciting a revolution. Fiscal emergency perhaps? There are a whole host of possibilities here, from forced buying of govt bonds to ludicrously high taxation levels for metals held within IRA/401ks to whatever crappy deal your mind can devise.
4. Lastly, if you are not in control of your money (due to withdrawal penalties and regulations etc), it is NOT YOUR MONEY. With the coming changes in the world wide economy, I need to be able to deploy my capital as i see fit, unencumbered by a jail cell of regulations.
I'll never own any type of US retirement account ever again.
IRB
I watched that and it was almost funny. They're lucky someone didn't have a rifle from the other side.
Also, at the end it looked like they were burning giant 'snakes'. Anyone remember those little black pellets you set on fire and they smoked and grew like a snake? They were always around during 4th of July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_snake_(firework)
Oil prices
I always thought that many people, including a number of the TV talking heads and even our very own Turd, attribute way too much of oil prices to trouble in the middle east. When was the last time there was not tension in the middle east? Sure, a flare up can cause a short term spike in prices but over time the strength of the $ and supply and demand are the determining factors. Currently the $ has strengthened and demand is expected to drop as the world economies slow down.
Now, if something happens that has never happened before like nukes flying causing a lengthy reduction of production in the region, that would be different. But something that has never happened before will not be priced in by the market before that type of event happens.
That Was Funny
TF - That was a pretty good magician. I haven't been hanging around here long enough to know you, but is that your way of saying "Lighten Up"? By the way, I love this place! So glad I found you.
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