Not All That Glitters Is Gold
Since it has been almost a year since overt QE ended, I thought it might be instructive to take a look this morning at some "commodities" and how they have fared over the past 12 months. Something tells me the next 12 months won't be quite the same...
A year ago, when QE2 ended, commodities were soaring. Since then, not so much. With commodities, there are always other factors such as weather and geo-politics that affect price, so we have to take that into account, too. But these are "localized" phenomena in that hot, dry weather in Iowa has a great impact on corn but a minimal impact on sugar or crude. Monetary policy, however, has the power to affect things, across the board.
So, how have prices and conditions changed over the past 12 months? Let's take a look at the big four foods: soybeans, wheat, corn and sugar. Of the four, only soybeans have held in there, unchanged in price since last June.
Wheat is down about 15% and has been stuck in a range between $6 and $7/bushel for most of the past year.
Corn has been nasty (-23%) and looks like it might remain that way for a while longer. Watch the weather, though. It's beginning to dry out in the American Midwest. If this continues and deteriorates, corn will turn sharply higher, regardless of what the chart says.
And sugar has been brutal. Down over 30% since last July, it recently broke down even further and fell from 24 to 19 in about 6 weeks. Yikes!
So, the question is: How much farther can these fall? Well, obviously, they could fall even further. Who knows? But...if you think that we are once again on the edge of a massive, global money-printing event...perhaps they've fallen as far as they're going to. Again, anyone interested in fiddling around with the "big four" should take a look at the "DAG", an ETF which is comprised of futures contracts, equally divided between all four. Here's a link: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DAG+Profile
We've got to take a look at crude here, too. Frankly, it's amazing that crude has fallen over 20% in the past 6 weeks yet gold and silver have traded sideways. Why crude has fallen from $105 to $81 is a mystery to me, that's for sure, as the geo-political "dynamics" don't seem to have materially improved. Regardless, crude near $80 sure seems like a bargain. As discussed here in the past, anyone wanting to "roll the bones" a bit on crude should take a look at the "UCO". http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=UCO+Profile
Just a couple more things before we go take on the day. (MrsF is already hollering at me, so it promises to be a long one. Please pray for me.) First, if you haven't yet, please take 3 minutes to watch Nigel Farage discuss current events in front of his pals in the European Parliament.
And you should circle June 19 on your calendar. That day, Paul Coghlan is giving a free webinar that you should consider attending. Paul is Andrew Maguire's business partner but he is also an outstanding technical analyst, in his own right. Again, the webinar is free and I'm confident that you'll learn a few things. You can read more and sign up by clicking this link: http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/3767
OK, that's it for now. The metals are following along yesterday's gains quite nicely on the back of continued strong demand in London. Let's hope this keep going. Again, my main goal for this week is to close above 1610 and 29. Anything beyond there is gravy.
TF
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Comments
No mystery, price at pump have declined
I actually own/ operate a large gasoline station & auto repair facility in Mid-Atlantic. Mystreet price has declined from high go $4.19 to $3.47. This pattern has occurred in neighborhoods across the country. With all the serious issues facing us, the last thing we need is a thread about an imaginary problem. I found this community from a link on Peter Schiff's site. What a great community! Thanks to all
87 USDx is the level I think
87 USDx is the level I think we will see in June. I Hope not.
Definition of tradition
1st ever!
1st ever!
Nice job.
Nice job.
Most people here are
Protectors
Protectors are the honest citizens in society; the people who actually give a damn about others. They are the truth seekers and truth-tellers. They know the difference between wrong and right, and when they see something wrong, they actively seek to expose it.
Protectors are the modern-day info-warriors; the defenders of the village. They are the liberty movement advocates, the whistleblowers and the independent thinkers.
Protectors are also preparedness strategists. They enjoy being safe and well prepared for an unknown future. They help protect their children, their families, and sometimes their entire communities from uncertainty. They are survivors.
Protectors are long-term thinkers who want to leave behind a better world for their children. They advocate total transparency in government and fight for honest labeling of GMO foods. They're strong advocates for true environmental protection, and they fight against criminal corporations. They demand accountability from others just as they do from themselves.
Protectors are loyal friends, capable defenders of life and property, and often surprisingly well versed in realms of spirituality, ethics and practical life skills. Many Protectors are members of churches or spiritual organizations, but they may also be journalists, self defense instructors, truck drivers or open-source technology advocates.
Beware offalse Protectorswho are actually Sociopaths pretending to be Protectors. Many Schemers also attempt to act like Protectors by running non-profits and foundations that are actually designed to further dominate humanity.
Only about 2% of the population are true Protectors. You can't normally identify them until they are tested in a real crisis.
Summary of the Protector Archetype:
Cognitive capabilities: Varies widely.
Moral compass: Follows the Golden Rule. Often has a religious background. Strong moral compass, strong sense of identity, purpose and self esteem.
Desired agenda: Ending suffering. Restoring liberty, justice, peace.
Worships: A universal force of good: God, karma or other spiritual force.
Typical dress: Varies widely.
When you're not looking, they will: Secretly donate food to the local food bank.
Learn more:http://www.naturalnews.com/036159_zombies_sociopaths_deniers.html#ixzz1xgjEcwkX
oil/ / marbleman
gas and diesel use in US still falling for years now.
expanding in china....true.
**********************************************************
GLD RIGHT NOW IS LIKE A GUN.....................good uses..........n bad ones.
n i think they print to push off collapse.......'cause its their only weapon n its what they do.
so while i stack........i'm not paying the IRA penalty for 'take out' yet.
but thats just me.
we get euro blow up DOW goes down 1000+pts. helicopter ben be slingin 100s
its when he slings out 100s n the dow doesn't move....thats when i'll take the tax hit.
i buy jewelry bars.......coins n bullion bars may dry up.....jewelry bars take longer to do that.....i can have them in my hand in 4 days after after a trip to TDAMERITRADE.
Oil price drops on global economic slowing
Isn't a declining oil price one of the best predictors of global demand?
The recent drop in oil merely reflects the negative economic numbers we've seen in the last four weeks.
As SPG goes, so goes the
As SPG goes, so goes the market, but maybe not the metals. I am long physical and not worried about antics.
SPG a good short pattern.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2012/06/spg-short.html
PS steveo back from vacation
PINING for the Fiords
Pining if I can make a request.
Could you do a paint job on Chuckie Schumer. The grand whore of the Banksters and fulltime pimp for Israel is really knocking em dead on the Hill today. Could we see this old hag in nylons,heels,mascara, a hookers swinging purse and some heavy rouge? This guy is nonstop shameless. Somebody sew a cheap toupee into his dome for all of us. The hairtransplant is even worse than Biden's. Always a new low for humanity whenever this streetwalker turns up.
Morning all, we know there is
Morning all, we know there is inflation around every corner, especially in consumer goods. Geez, every time I go to the store I feel like an old geezer because I'm constantly taking notice of higher prices (or same prices but SMALLER packaging!).
Can you imagine where commodities (hard and soft) would be price-wise if it wasn't for the constant market meddling that we experience? They'd be outrageous and through the roof.
No, I take this market meddling as a sign of how bad things really are. The further commodity and staple prices drop the worse I know it is--because they wouldn't have to drop them that low if things were getting better. Nope, they are dropping them so the formal printing can continue.
The same applies to gold and silver. They are my favorite commodities, after all. :)
And for the record, I've had a GREAT 52 weeks here in Turdville. Here's hoping we have many more and continue to bolster each other up with witty remarks and insightful opinions!
Alert From International Banker: Close All Equity Account & Exit
www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/12_Money/120611.bank.update.html
June 11, 2012
Steve,
Steve tell your listeners to ignore ETFs and continue buying Physical SILVER and GOLD no matter what "spot price" is. Please tell them to take cash out NOW!!!! Only keep in bank what you can afford to lose and what you need to pay bills and expenses. Please tell them to get money out NOW!!! They have till December the latest to do so. Be mindful it CAN HAPPEN SOONER. Prices of Metals without manipulation $1000 SILVER $5000 GOLD---Steve Great show Im listening to you right now.
Here is the latest truth on Spain. The bailout already happened by stealth from very reliable sources. My sources are never wrong. The Bank holiday is going to spill over to Spain, Portugal and France. The Flight to safe harbor now is the UK. From there you will see flights to the US dollar. The main players have moved to Gold. Watch for another shock to SLV and GLD market. This will cause shaky uncommitted hands to dump more SLV and GLD physical. ETF markets will take massive hit.
Germany will start to have massive upheaval as their banks Duetche Bank in particular is over exposed to Spanish Flue, solvency crunch will hit Germany, look for Germans to go mad over the fact they can not have access to their funds.
Evolving..... Dollar only rises with IR Swaps and flight to "safe currency" once dirivative market bursts all of this goes parabolic high velocity crash. This is due to the fact that the dollar is exposed as WORTHLESS due to the overleveraged CDS exposure.Very little SILVER left to be mined. It is a precious and Strategic metal. SILVER will be less plentiful than GOLD.Steve Russian economy willl suffer greatly due to EuroCollapse. This is due to the dependency that the Russian economy has with Euro zone energy exports. (GAZPROM) Greek crisis has hurt Russian Natural Gas exports.
Russians are angry at Eurocrats due to their inability to fix the crisis. They are blaming the whole entire western banking system for the recent decline of the Ruble. Steve some of the investors that lost big in Iceland were the Russians and guess what? They are vested in Greece as well. Take to account this along side with recent NATO aggression does not work to help this particular situation.Steve remember Deutsche Bank is #2 only to PNB Paribas the French Banking Giant. The kicker here is that both of their derivative exposure combined is over $125 Trillion!!! You have to be solvent in order to be liquid. This is a solvency crisis. The average joe on the street is duped into thinking it's liquidity. There is no liquidity.Chinese will back Yuan with Gold. They are stealth dumping US Tbonds. Have not been in any major bond auctions for the last year or so. Will form new banking/ trade system with BRICS---Morgan Stanley is next Lehman bros due to Facebook and Euro exposure. Close all equity accounts and exit markets now. V
@Missiondweller, we've had
@Missiondweller, we've had poor economic numbers and indicators for a long time now. They may explain some of it, but I'm not convinced that explains a move from $105 to the low 80s in WTI.
Market meddling, I say.
Actually...
June 14 is the anniversary date. Not sure why this site shows June 13.
Anyway, thanks for the well wishes. Tomorrow we'll party like it's 2011.
TUESDAY, JUNE 14, 2011
WE'VE MOVED!!!
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/06/weve-moved.html
Back from Mexico
I just got back from vacation with my parents and my sister who just graduated high school and I had a mission while I was down there. This was to see how the locals thought about their government, the US government, and their thoughts on preparing for the future. Most of the people I talked to owned the little knick knack shops on the streets or worked in the hotel/restaurant industry. While I was there the conversion rate was 13 pesos/$1. Everyone I talked to gets paid in pesos and some convert their pesos to dollars because they feel it is safer than their own currency. Only one person knew that their government minted silver coins, but he said he did not hold any. About half of the people I talked to understood the concept that all fiat currencies were depreciating and buying less goods than before, but they did nothing to protect themselves or their family about it. One person I talked to seemed very knowledgeable about fiat currencies and he said "one day all of these currencies will not be worth the paper they are printed on. It is just paper." He was preparing for his family in the future. It seems that the people in Mexico are waking up to what is going on in this world, but still are hesitant to do anything about it.
fwiw
News Headline Summary
(Commodities)
Commerzbank says Gold price likely to climb to USD 1,900 per troy ounce towards the end of 2012
- Lowers Silver price forecast, sees silver price at USD 35 per troy ounce by the year end
The list of the astute questioners
I’m sure that courageous Senator from NY – Mr. Schumer – will really rake Jamie over the coals.
With everyone watching Greece this weekend...
...don't forget about Egypt.
http://www.debka.com/article/22080/Secret-US-poll-projects-70-pc-lead-for-Muslim-presidential-candidate-Morsi
RE: Alert From International Banker
If this anonymous internet person's "sources are never wrong", and there is a shock coming that will cause gold & silver to be dumped, then wouldn't it be amazingly prudent to wait until that shock comes to really load up on the phys?
Just thinking inside the box.
And please, don't forget
And please, don't forget about Cyprus! :) They almost got lost in the shuffle, but after waiting patiently in line that little guy got a bailout of his own. Good boy, Cyprus! That's a big boy!
Russia Reportedly Preparing 2 Divisions for Deployment to Syria
Looks like ALCIAD is stirring the pot in Syris and Egypt.
@SilverWealth
Though no Chuckie in drag, there is another excellent Banzai7 spread now up on ZH:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-13/duke-moron-hazard-goes-w...
SW- Best I could do on short notice
This subject deserves a better effort, but duty calls...
A dump in gld and Slv and a
A dump in gld and Slv and a move to physical. Etf in general.
Who is this guy? Steve?
Oil
Read somewhere that Saudi's are pumping WFO to accommodate the ONE.
Presidential cycle. See Bush cycles.
As well I believe we are in a global contraction. Demand.
@Peckerwood
Love that "Francis" scene!
wth
Gold dipping heavy here in the 12-12:30 EST time period.
What gives?
@ ChiTownHustler
That is a very disturbing tape for the entire world. We here in America should leave these nations to their own evil plots and be there to feed the hungry and clothe the naked when the dust settles. But we are driven by unseen forces of darkness into their game plans and nothing will stop it. Silver and gold storage will not solve the sickness within mankind. A five million man march on Washington D.C. like the OWS protesters may slow things down but will not fix anything.
What I see coming is well said long ago: "And the kings of the earth, and the great men, and the rich men, and the chief captains, and the mighty men, and every bondman, and every free man, hid themselves in the dens and in the rocks of the mountains; And said to the mountains and rocks, Fall on us, and hide us from the face of Him that sitteth on the throne, and from the wrath of the Lamb". Rev. 6:15-16.
There is not a hiding place on earth that will bring Peace within. jmo
@wth
10 yr auction ~25 bil
Cash Out
James W. Rawles author of survivalblog.com told every one to get out of all bank accounts and stocks and into silver if all your other preps are in order.
@slick
thank you, could you please explain the linkage and reasoning
@Slick
Aha: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/treasury-sell-10-year-bonds-record-low-yie...
Of course that is negative for Gold.
We need a :facepalm emoticon up in here . . .
Exchange Stabilization Fund
or Plunge Protection Team
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange_Stabilization_Fund
"The act authorized the ESF to use its capital to deal in gold and foreign exchange to stabilize the exchange value of the dollar. The ESF as originally designed was part of the executive branch not subject to legislative oversight."