Not All That Glitters Is Gold

Since it has been almost a year since overt QE ended, I thought it might be instructive to take a look this morning at some "commodities" and how they have fared over the past 12 months. Something tells me the next 12 months won't be quite the same...

A year ago, when QE2 ended, commodities were soaring. Since then, not so much. With commodities, there are always other factors such as weather and geo-politics that affect price, so we have to take that into account, too. But these are "localized" phenomena in that hot, dry weather in Iowa has a great impact on corn but a minimal impact on sugar or crude. Monetary policy, however, has the power to affect things, across the board.

So, how have prices and conditions changed over the past 12 months? Let's take a look at the big four foods: soybeans, wheat, corn and sugar. Of the four, only soybeans have held in there, unchanged in price since last June.

Wheat is down about 15% and has been stuck in a range between $6 and $7/bushel for most of the past year.

Corn has been nasty (-23%) and looks like it might remain that way for a while longer. Watch the weather, though. It's beginning to dry out in the American Midwest. If this continues and deteriorates, corn will turn sharply higher, regardless of what the chart says.

And sugar has been brutal. Down over 30% since last July, it recently broke down even further and fell from 24 to 19 in about 6 weeks. Yikes!

So, the question is: How much farther can these fall? Well, obviously, they could fall even further. Who knows? But...if you think that we are once again on the edge of a massive, global money-printing event...perhaps they've fallen as far as they're going to. Again, anyone interested in fiddling around with the "big four" should take a look at the "DAG", an ETF which is comprised of futures contracts, equally divided between all four. Here's a link: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DAG+Profile

We've got to take a look at crude here, too. Frankly, it's amazing that crude has fallen over 20% in the past 6 weeks yet gold and silver have traded sideways. Why crude has fallen from $105 to $81 is a mystery to me, that's for sure, as the geo-political "dynamics" don't seem to have materially improved. Regardless, crude near $80 sure seems like a bargain. As discussed here in the past, anyone wanting to "roll the bones" a bit on crude should take a look at the "UCO". http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=UCO+Profile

Just a couple more things before we go take on the day. (MrsF is already hollering at me, so it promises to be a long one. Please pray for me.) First, if you haven't yet, please take 3 minutes to watch Nigel Farage discuss current events in front of his pals in the European Parliament.

And you should circle June 19 on your calendar. That day, Paul Coghlan is giving a free webinar that you should consider attending. Paul is Andrew Maguire's business partner but he is also an outstanding technical analyst, in his own right. Again, the webinar is free and I'm confident that you'll learn a few things. You can read more and sign up by clicking this link: http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/3767

OK, that's it for now. The metals are following along yesterday's gains quite nicely on the back of continued strong demand in London. Let's hope this keep going. Again, my main goal for this week is to close above 1610 and 29. Anything beyond there is gravy.

TF

339 Comments

Eric Original's picture

First?

First?

Confusion aside, I'm counting tomorrow as Turd Town Anniversary Day.IMG_2810.JPG

Mudsharkbytes's picture

First! - nope

Okay, 2nd.

Another mystery to me is how crude can fall 20% yet the price at the pump remains the same.

Nope, nothing suspicious here.

LaMachinna's picture

first?

surprise

LaMachinna's picture

Doh!!

THURD is a great place to be though!!!!!!!  

Eric Original's picture

Now I feel bad for beating

Now I feel bad for beating you guys out.  Severe empathy is one of my faults. (?)

¤'s picture

Thanks big, yellow-hatted one

Appreciate it!

Corn?  Ok...Korn

Sugar? Ok...No Sugar Tonight

Ned Braden's picture

Praying For Ya Turd.....

I'm just now gettin out of the dog-house myself around here

¤'s picture

Severe Empathy

It's a mixed blessing at times but overall it's the high road and that's what matters.

I call it being a 'compassion magnet' and that's all some are looking for....a shoulder or and ear.

In that sense I have big shoulders and many ears and I'm sure you do also EO yes

dropout's picture

Utter, Complete Idiocy!

Nigel Farage tells it just like it is!

Spain receives bailout. Italy is responsible for 20% of this bailout. But they are broke and must borrow the money on the open market at a rate of 6-7%, then lend this money to Spain at 3%! WTF is wrong here?

Absolute, utter idiocy. Nigel will be quoted long into the future. The classic "I told you so, but nobody listened!" 

Maybe there was some glimmer of hope for the Euro and the Eurozone Union. Not any more. No amount of lipstick will make this pig look any different. It's done. Stick a fork in it. 

Marblesonac's picture

Silver is my fetish

Since you folks are getting all freaky....

RTMoney's picture

On weather

I have a contact in the crop insurance business and he is running all over the mid-west taking pictures of corn fields that had corn in them for a while this spring... The hail has been really bad according to him and its too late for a re-plant of corn in a lot of areas so the farmers are likely to plant something with a shorter season.

spotgoldprice's picture

I was going to post a sublime gold related comment....

....but with all these stupid idiots STILL posting 1st, 2nd 3rd! like complete babies/muppets/twats, I couldn't face it.

Cheers Turdle.

@spotgoldprice

Marblesonac's picture

spotgoldprice

What does someone else's posting effect what you were going to post?

¤'s picture

Classic: What, no gravy?

What can I say?  TF keeps providing golden nuggets of opportunity to have fun withlaugh

I've been looking for this 'toon for awhile. It's going into the cartoon Gold Vault shortly.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/1218/bonanza-bunny

ClinkinKY's picture

Pissed because he hasn't been here for 52 weeks 17 hours:)

I was going to post a sublime gold related comment....

 

....but with all these stupid idiots STILL posting 1st, 2nd 3rd! like complete babies/muppets/twats, I couldn't face it.

Cheers Turdle.

@spotgoldprice

billhilly's picture

farage...

Wonderful video.  I enjoy every one that comes out because he tells it like it is.  Amazing how good the truth tastes.

It amazes me, in Farage videos' past, that there seems never to be anyone sitting in the seats as he is talking (very few anyway).  It is no wonder that they are all screwed up over there...does anyone (politicians) go to work? At least in this video there seem to be some occupied seats.

Hey, this might be my first post.  I usually don't have anything of any consequence to say, this post included probably, but I have been a daily visitor and avid reader since the early days and am so very grateful for such a great forum and site.  HAT TIPS TO ALL !

Eric Original's picture

shoulders and ears

6a00d83452fd3369e2011278fd74a128a4-500wi

corn-on-the-grill-Flickr-by-ChrisDag.jpg

OK, now I'm just beyond giddy, and getting just plain goofy.  Time to go mow the lawn...

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Uh, spotgoldprice?

You bust on the guy with 4867 posts and 38,361 hat tips for not posting something with content?  The same guy who has posted the 100 something pages of Eric O's gold miners thread?  The financial repression thread?  

I am sure he will be crushed by your disapproval of his 'first'. 

ChiTownHustler's picture

CCI UPDATE STILL HOLDING 50% FIB

mendolover's picture

Hey Turd - Give Jim W our

Hey Turd -

Give Jim W our warmest regards!

exiledbear's picture

All the markets are dying without more printed money

And I guess they'll continue to die until they get scared enough to turn the printing presses back on. They don't really get it yet, they still think that all the goosing they did back in 2008 and 2009 was temporary, that after that the whole system would be able to sustain itself.

Yeah, I think things will muddle through until some magic weekend where a poo bomb explodes and then nothing will ever be the same again afterwards. Or at least clean.

waxybilldupp's picture

CNBS Jamie Show

Catching snippets of it as I go about my business around the house.  Strikes me as more of an Ass-kissing Contest than a Congressional Hearing.  The check is in the mail:  Wink! Wink!

wax off

peckerwood's picture

@ spotgold

exiledbear's picture

Re: Farage

I guess the thing that really gets me about that video, is that nobody has any passion except for him. It's like either they're in a weed-induced haze or they don't care or they're burned out or they're depressed.

These are the people at the helm of the EU? They're sooooooooooooooo fucked.

murphy's picture

Uh, spotgoldprice #2?

Prior to seeing Pining's post I was going to say how apropos it was that EO got first wishing TFMR happy anniversary. But I guess that would have been childish.

waxybilldupp's picture

@peckerwood

Excellent!  There are times when giving hat-tips in clumps of 10 should be an option.  That was one of them.

wax off

Xty's picture

EricO -

maybe you could mow TF's lawn too - seems like he might be in need of some extreme empathy.

I really feel like posting nonsense, suddenly.  Here is a favourite poem, by Spike Milligan:

A THOUSAND HAIRY SAVAGES

A thousand hairy savages 

Sitting down to lunch. 

Gobble gobble glup glup 

Munch munch munch.

 

Spike Milligan (1918—2001)

 
Eric Original's picture

OK, settle down my friends

I'm not offended.

I think it's somewhere in the Bible (not sure which version):

"First" haters will always be with us...

I Wazere's picture

"Why crude has fallen from $105 to $81 is a mystery to me"...

It's the lack of infrastructure. We have more oil than pipelines and rail tank cars can take away; and there's lots more coming.

Another well researched article from Casey Research:

"The Tricky Calculus of Oil Price Differentials"

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/columns/casey-research/1483/casey-daily-dispatch-the-tricky-calculus-of-oil-price-differentials-1483.html

Excalibur's picture

EU Parliament (Nigel Excepted!). Any different in the US?

The body language of the EU Parliament is of Deniers, though some are verging on Zombies. These parasites are paid sky high salaries, pensions and expenses. 

With slightly more cognitive capability than Zombies, Deniers are the functional but ignorant masses who live out their meaningless lives in total denial of reality. They can still manage to hold down jobs and even dress themselves, so most Deniers are middle-class working people you might find employed at the local Wal-Mart, insurance company or TSA hub. Unlike Zombies, Deniers can speak in partial sentences and order from fast food menus. ("Idiocracy" speak.)



Astonishingly, Deniers watch network news and literallybelievewhat they are watching. To the Deniers, there are no "conspiracies." All governments are good. Drug companies are trying tohelppeople, not exploit them for profit. U.S. Senators are "honorable" and the War on Drugs is a huge success!



Deniers believe there is no such thing as black market organ trafficking, child sex slave trafficking in the USA, child kidnapping by CPS workers, or government-run false flag attacks on civilian populations. Deniers are completely unaware that U.S. troops literally help grow the opium crops in Afghanistan, that vaccines are laced with cancer-causing stealth viruses, or that the so-called "fluoride" dumped into the municipal water supply is actually a deadly cocktail of industrial chemicals and neurotoxic heavy metals.



Deniers like to think of themselves as "trendy" and they worship trendy pop culture figures like Steve Jobs. Deniers are driven primarily by the desire tobe assimilated into the group thinkby speaking, behaving and even dressing exactly like everyone else around them. Their need for social acceptance outweighs their need for critical thinking. To them, individuation is horrifying.



As a result, Deniers have become surprisingly competent at burying their heads in the sand and pretending no problems exist, even while they are being soft-killed by the governments and corporations all around them. What, me worry? What global debt Ponzi scheme? What national debt? What Fukushima fallout? Look, another football game is on! Another TV show is on! My girlfriend is texting me! Who has time for reality when living in a delusional world is so entertaining and trendy?



Summary of the Denier Archetype:

Cognitive capabilities: Medium-Low.

Moral compass: Malleable. Does whatever the group tells them.

Desired agenda: Get along and fit in. Be popular.

Worships: Material wealth. Fashion. Cars.

Typical dress: Business casual.

When you're not looking, they will: Spread false gossip about you.

Learn more:http://www.naturalnews.com/036159_zombies_sociopaths_deniers.html#ixzz1xgfz9MUl

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