Awaiting The Bernank

Just a couple of items before we get started this morning.

The Ben Bernank is going to be speaking before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Many are hoping/expecting that The Bernank will hint at further easing and "accomodation". We'll see. Personally, I just hope that this site stays up and doesn't crash again. You may recall that the last two times The Bernank has appeared before Congress, TFMR crashed just as he began. Again, we'll see. The backup plan, as usual, is to post at the old blogspot site, should it become necessary.

Two items for your consideration while we wait. First, Jeff Nielson has written a fantastic piece on the BS from the BLS. You've heard me and others discuss the fallacy of the "birth/death model" and other "seasonal adjustments". Please take time to read Jeff's article. Maybe even bookmark it or print it off so that you have it easily accessible on the first Friday of every month.

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/us-commentary/25559-old-lie-returns-in-new-us-jobs-report

The second piece comes from Patrick Heller at Liberty Coin Service. If you're not familiar with Pat, you should know that he is a well-respected "numismatician". Not prone to hyperbole, Pat is someone whom I've cited here often. Please take time to read this very important article. 

http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=25297

OK, that's all for now. The Bernank speaks in 45 minutes. Let's hope we can meet back here later. TF

171 Comments

silver bullett's picture

1st

1 st

Two Gun Tobin's picture

First Second or turd?

First Second or turd?

Groaner's picture

Another smash of the metals should be order?

no matter what spews from his mouth.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Time Discounting/ Delayed Gratification

Stumbled across this study while reading about HBD, not specifically economics. Interesting correlation between this capacity and prosperity. Looks like the stronger economies and the PIGS both came by their status honestly (in the 'apple doesn't fall far from the tree' sense).

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1481443

"Abstract:     
We present results from the first large-scale international survey on time discounting, conducted in 45 countries. Cross-country varia- tion cannot simply be explained by economic variables such as interest rates or inflation. In particular, we find strong evidence for cultural differences, as measured by the Hofstede cultural dimensions. For ex- ample, high levels of Uncertainty Avoidance or Individualism are both associated with strong hyperbolic discounting. Moreover, as applica- tion of our data, we find evidence for an impact of time preferences on the capability of technological innovations in a country and on environmental protection. "

Wang+et+al.+Time+discount+in+45+countrie

Eric Original's picture

Terrific article by Heller there, Turd

Excellent discussion of items of interest to stackers.  Tungsten in gold, weight of 90% coin, being paramount.

It's a MUST READ.

notmessenger's picture

Is there a webcast of Bernank?

Anyone have a url?

EDIT: Here is the url to the JEC calendar entry but don't see anything on the site about live feeds -  http://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?p=Hearings&ContentRecord_id=4f13cbec-d47c-49c3-9f60-6ea83178f3fd

koan's picture

Markets seem to me to be jostling for position at the trough

...and guessing it'll take a lot from Heli Ben to not disappoint them.

Tube's picture

To print, or not to print...

NOT much of a question!

pforth's picture

Cautiously optimistic...

It wasn't that long ago that every time the Bernanke opened his mouth gold and silver would rise.  Although I don't expect a "yes we're doing QE3" message today, based on the price of silver slowly creeping up I'm cautiously optimistic.

We know that the cabal has the inside scoop on what he's going to say before he says it, so if it was hawkish the price would either be diving now due to their selling, or spiking up as they prepared a bull trap.  The slight positive upward bias I'm seeing now makes me think we'll hear something that contains very little that's new but has perhaps a slightly dovish slant.

bam's picture

Can someone remind me...

....of the (more or less exact) action the last two times Spanky spoke?    Did metals get the smack down or no?     Pump and dump?    Smack and rise?

paulindoon's picture

notmessenger's picture Is there a webcast of Bernank?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Both days were beatdowns.

MODERATOR

Both days were beatdowns. LeapDay being the 2nd and most notorious.

cpnscarlet's picture

Ben's Speech????

I've learned to be accustomed to disappointment so I'm rarely disappointed.

sixdollarsilver's picture

Set your expectations low...

...and you'll never be disappointed.

Silver is money's picture

Not a chance

that bernanke does anything other than a bit of lip service today IMO.  China is the really big story today and is what lends real fundamentals to further PM moves.  A cut plus another $22 Billion in steel consuming projects.  Ben's yapping is lightweight in comparison today and his effects will be very short lived.  For some reason I have found that many PM investors tend to not realize the size and role of China in all of this....and every time that China does these things the PMs inevitably react and react strongly.   It may not be the instantaneous nonsense that we get from Ben-boy, but it lasts longer.  

rl999's picture

Discounted PM's? sweet.

Beatdowns? Good, missed my chance at 27.30$ last friday and I've been kicking myself ever since.  My order is ready this time, just have to press the magic button.

notmessenger's picture

Thanks paulindoon for the links!

.

ouchtouch's picture

Gotta put Mr. Tulving on

Gotta put Mr. Tulving on speed dial.  It's going to be a bumpy day.

Dr G's picture

Agree about expectations.

Agree about expectations. Just be prepared to take action. If he doesn't mention any further easing, even as a tool the Fed may use if needed, then prices will go down. Get ready to buy on a nice dip.

If he does mention it, prices will go up, and I'd still buy because this will likely take silver over $30, where it will probably base until the shenanigans at the next FOMC meeting in 2 weeks.

Either way I'm buying.

(and if QE is in the picture, which we know it is, then I wouldn't be surprised to have him NOT mention it. That will get the metals and stocks down where they really want them in order to implement QE--so watch for no mention and both metals moving lower).

Groaner's picture

Normal action.. usd dropping, dropping

and the metals dropping..  Stocks are flying on air..

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

CME's Daily Delivery Report

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 118 gold and 1 lonely silver contract were posted for delivery on Friday.

There was metal deposited in both ETFs yesterday. The gold ETF added 29,118 troy ounces...and an authorized participant added 970,184 ounces of silver to SLV, which was within twelve ounces of the amount of silver added on Tuesday.

The U.S. Mint sold another 75,000 ounces of silver eagles yesterday...and that was all.

Tuesday was another busy day over at the Comex-approved silver depositories. They reported receiving 1,431,832 troy ounces...and shipped 835,039 ounces out the door. The link to that activity is here.

Ed Steer, Gold & Silver Daily

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

Courtesy Ed Steer/ Ted Butler

Silver analyst Ted Butler had a few things of great interest posted in his mid-week commentary...and one of them is contained in these three paragraphs below...

"A subscriber asked me to comment on an Internet posting that included an email response that CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton had agreed be made public. Coincidently, when I received the subscriber’s email, I had been going through a long overdue clean up of old papers on my desk that had accumulated for the past few years. (Yes, I had been ordered to do so). I ran across copies of email correspondence I had with Commissioner Chilton back in March thru May 2008. That correspondence was requested by him to be off the record back then, so I will honor that request and not reveal the details. But the past and present email exchanges contributed to a strong sense of déjà vu."

"In the post referenced above, Chilton indicates that he expects a resolution of the almost four year old silver investigation in the next few months. Similarly, the old email exchange I had with the commissioner occurred just prior to the May 13, 2008 release of the Commission’s 16-page public denial of a silver manipulation. I had first contacted Commissioner Chilton in November of 2007 about issues related to silver manipulation and that had resulted in a private email exchange with him until the May 2008 public letter. After that, there was no further private exchange."

"In addition to the sense of déjà vu in reading what was basically the same message both now and back then, I also had a moment of clarity. Not only had I seen this movie before, I remembered how it ended, namely, with another whitewash report from the CFTC that everything was fine in silver and allegations of manipulation were unfounded. It seems to me that there can be no other outcome this time. There is no way that the agency ever comes out and admits what many thousands of observers know to be true – that the price of silver is manipulated and has been for the past three decades. In other words, it’s time to face reality."

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

'End of the world as we know it

'End of the world as we know it': Kaspersky warns of cyber-terror apocalypse

After his eponymously-named lab discovered Flame, "the most sophisticated cyber weapon yet unleashed," Eugene Kaspersky believes that the evolving threat of “cyber terrorism” could spell the end of life on Earth as we know it.

Doomsday scenarios are a common occurrence in 2012, but coming from a steely-eyed realist like Eugene Kaspersky, his calls for a global effort to halt emerging cyber threats should raise alarm bells.

A global Internet blackout and crippling attacks against key infrastructure are among two possible cyber-pandemics he outlined.

"It's not cyber war, it's cyber terrorism, and I'm afraid the game is just beginning. Very soon, many countries around the world will know it beyond a shadow of a doubt,” Kaspersky told reporters at a Tel Aviv University cyber security conference.

“I'm afraid it will be the end of the world as we know it," he warned. "I'm scared, believe me."

His stark warning came soon after researchers at Kaspersky Lab unearthed Flame, possibly the most complex cyber threat ever. While the espionage toolkit infected systems across the Middle East, Iran appears to have been its primary target.

Flame seems to be a continuation of Stuxnet, the revolutionary infrastructure-sabotaging computer worm that made mincemeat of Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz in 2009-2010.

As Flame is capable of recording audio via a microphone, taking screen shots, turning Bluetooth-enabled computers into beacons to download names and phone numbers from other Bluetooth enabled devices, Kaspersky is certain that a nation-station is behind the cyber espionage virus.

While Kaspersky says that the United States, Britain, India, Israel, China and Russia are among the countries capable of developing such software, which he estimates cost $100 million to develop, he did not limit the threat to these states.

"Even those countries that do not yet have the necessary expertise [to create a virus like Flame] can employ engineers or kidnap them, or turn to hackers for help.”

Like Stuxnet, Flame attacks Windows operating systems.  Considering this reality, Kaspersky was emphatic: "Software that manages industrial systems or transportation or power grids or air traffic must be based on secure operating systems. Forget about Microsoft, Linux or Unix."

Kaspersky believes the evolution from cyber war to cyber terrorism comes from the indiscriminate nature of cyber weapons. Very much like a modern-day Pandora’s Box, Flame and other forms of malware cannot be controlled upon release. Faced with a replicating threat that knows no national boundaries, cyber weapons can take down infrastructure around the world, hurting scores of innocent victims along the way.

Kaspersky believes that it necessary to view cyber weapons with the same seriousness as chemical, biological and even nuclear threats.  Mutually assured destruction should exclude them from the arsenals of nation states.

The apocalyptic scenario he painted is fit for the silver screen.  No surprise then, that it was a film that converted him to the idea that cyber terrorism was a clear and present danger.

Posted on Russia Today website

The link is here.

Dr Jerome's picture

I think Bernanke is a Calvinist

The most interesting explanation of Calvinism can be attributed to the Methodist circuit rider Francis Asbury (circa 1820), who, when accused that he did not know what Calvinism was, sarcastically replied:

"You can and you can't, you will and you won't

You're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't"

So are the metals predestined to get a spanking today? So either way, no matter what Bernanke says, I expect metals to get smashed today. they must not let metals rise (at least not much)  if Bernanke is going to hint at QE. and If he is ambiguous or silent on "further accommodation" I am sure they will smack metals hard.

I don't believe they will announce or hint at further accommodation.

Hold powder until you see the whites of their eyes: 27-ish

Ready, aim, stack!

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother's picture

re: ted butler

poor, optimistic ted.

as smart as he is and i do respect him -  he hasn't been a quick study concerning the cftc and the silver manipulation game.

but even ted catches on to the sham that it is - eventually.

Dr G's picture

We shall find out soon

We shall find out soon enough. I hope fellow stackers don't get depressed about silver dropping through 29. It will rise higher, patience!

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

The World from Berlin:

The World from Berlin: Spain's Bailout Refusal Is 'Kamikaze Politics'

Pressure is growing for Spain to tap into European Union bailout money to stem its banking crisis, but the country has stubbornly refused. Instead, Madrid hopes to get around bailout conditions with direct aid to its banks. German commentators on Wednesday say that the time for pride has passed.

All eyes are on Spain as the euro crisis seems to deepen by the day. The country's banks are in dire need of capital, which Madrid is unable to easily provide. Yet the government continues to resist outside pressure to accept bailout money from their euro-zone partners. Instead, in an effort to avoid submitting to conditions that would be imposed in exchange for a bailout, Madrid has turned to the financial markets, an approach widely considered to be both unsustainable and a grave risk to the health of the euro zone.

 

Laden with bad loans left over from the collapse of the country's real estate bubble in 2009, the country's most troubled institution, Bankia S.A., reportedly needs €19 billion ($24 billion) in fresh capital. In total, the Spanish banking sector is thought to need between €75 billion and €100 billion worth of liquidity. Borrowing costs on 10-year bonds, meanwhile, have crept close to the dangerous 7 percent mark, widely considered to be unsustainable.

Spanish Treasury Minister Cristobal Montoro revealed how dire the situation has become on Tuesday. "The risk premium says Spain doesn't have the market door open," he told Onda Cero radio. "The risk premium says that as a state, we have a problem in accessing markets, when we need to refinance our debt."

Spain has asked for euro-zone bailout money to be made available directly to its financial institutions, a strategy to which Germany is strictly opposed. Europe "needs to support those that are in difficulty," Rajoy told a Senate session on Tuesday, calling for a "banking union" to oversee the finanancial industry. While the European Commission and European Central Bank (ECB) are expected to present ideas for creating such banking oversight at a summit in late June, any such plan would be almost certainly be too late to help Spain.

Both German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble agree that Spain should be forced to accept bailout money from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the temporary euro bailout fund, to inject liquidity into the country's struggling banks. The two settled on the strategy last week. Last Wednesday, Schäuble pressured his Spanish counterpart, Luis de Guindos, to accept the emergency funding.

Posted on Spiegel.de website

The link is here.

Dr G's picture

The above posted link didn't

The above posted link didn't work for me, it will work after the speech is given and posted as an archived video, I believe.

Here is a live link: http://www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN3/

Dr G's picture

Bernanke has spoken. No

Bernanke has spoken. No comment on future easing, no mention of QE being implemented. Here we go down...

Eric Original's picture

There goes gold

It's almost like magic, isn't it?

Syndicate contentComments for "Awaiting The Bernank"