The Latest From Sprott

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The Real Banking Crisis, Part II
By: Eric Sprott & David Baker

Here we go again. Back in July 2011 we wrote an article entitled "The Real Banking Crisis" where we discussed the increasing instability of the Eurozone banks suffering from depositor bank runs. Since that time (and two LTRO infusions and numerous bailouts later), Eurozone banks, as represented by the Euro Stoxx Banks Index, have fallen more than 50% from their July 2011 levels and are now in the midst of yet another breakdown led by the abysmal situation currently unfolding in Greece and Spain.

EURO STOXX BANKS INDEX
Source: Bloomberg

On Wednesday, May 16th, it was reported that Greek depositors withdrew as much as €1.2 billion from their local Greek banks on the preceding Monday and Tuesday alone, representing 0.75% of total deposits.1 Reports suggest that as much as €700 million was withdrawn the week before. Greek depositors have now withdrawn €3 billion from their banking system since the country's elections on May 6th, seemingly emptying what was left of the liquidity remaining within the Greek banking system.2 According to Reuters, the Greek banks had already collectively borrowed €73.4 billion from the ECB and €54 billion from the Bank of Greece as of the end of January 2012 - which is equivalent to approximately 77% of the Greek banking system's €165 billion in household and business deposits held at the end of March.3 The recent escalation in withdrawals has forced the Greek banks to draw on an €18 billion emergency fund (released on May 28th), which if depleted, will leave the country with a cushion of a mere €3 billion.4 It's now down to the wire. Greece is essentially €21 billion away from a complete banking collapse, or alternatively, another large-scale bailout from the European Central Bank (ECB).

The way this is unfolding probably doesn't surprise anyone, but the time it has taken for the remaining Greek depositors to withdraw their money is certainly perplexing to us. Official records suggest that the Greek banks only lost a third of their deposits between January 2010 and March 2012, which begs the question of why the Greek banks have had to borrow so much capital from the ECB in the meantime.5 Nonetheless, we are finally past the tipping point where Greek depositors have had enough, and the past two weeks have perfectly illustrated how quickly a determined bank run can propel a country back into crisis mode. The numbers above suggest there really isn't much of a banking system left in Greece at all, and at this point no sane person or corporation would willingly continue to hold deposits within a Greek bank unless they had no other choice.

The fact remains that here we are, in May 2012, and Greece is right back in the exact same predicament it was in before its March 2012 bailout. Before the bailout, Greece had approximately €368 billion of debt outstanding, and its government bond yields were trading above 35%.6 On March 9th, the authorities arranged for private investors to forgive more than €100 billion of that debt, and launched a €130 billion rescue package that prompted Nicolas Sarkozy to exclaim that the Greek debt crisis had finally been solved.7 Today, a mere two months later, Greece is back up to almost €400 billion in total debt outstanding (more than it had pre-bailout), and its sovereign bond yields are back above 29%. It's as if the March bailout never happened… and if you remember, that lauded Greek bailout back in March represented the largest sovereign restructuring in history. It is now safe to assume that that record will be surpassed in short order. It's either that, or Greece is out of the Eurozone and back on the drachma - hence the renewed bank run among Greek depositors.

Meanwhile, in Spain, bank depositors have been pulling money out of the recently nationalized Bankia bank, which is the fourth largest bank in the country. Depositors reportedly withdrew €1 billion during the week of May 7th alone, prompting shares of Bankia to fall 29% in one day.8 The Bankia run coincided with Moody's issuance of a sweeping downgrade of 16 Spanish banks, a move that was prompted over concerns related to the Spanish banks' €300+ billion exposure to domestic real estate loans, half of which are believed to be delinquent.9 The Spanish authorities were quick to deny the Bankia run, with Fernando Jiménez Latorre, secretary of state for the economy stating, "It is not true that there has been an exit of deposits at this time from Bankia… there is no concern about a possible flight of deposits, as there is no reason for it."10 Funny then that the Spanish government had to promptly launch a €9 billion bailout for Bankia the following Wednesday, May 24th, an amount which has since increased to a total of €19 billion to fund the ailing bank.11 Deny, deny some more… panic, inject capital - this is the typical government approach to bank runs, but the bailouts are happening faster now, and the numbers are getting larger.

The recent bank runs in Greece and Spain are part of a broader trend that has been building for months now. Foreign depositors in the peripheral EU countries are understandably nervous and have been steadily lowering their exposure to Eurozone sovereign debt. According to JPMorgan analysts, approximately €200 billion of Italian government bonds and €80 billion of Spanish bonds have been sold by foreign investors over the past nine months, representing more than 10% of each market.12 The same can be said for foreign deposits in those countries. Citi's credit strategist Matt King recently reported that, "in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, foreign deposits have fallen by an average of 52%, and foreign government bond holdings by an average of 33%, from their peaks."13 Spain and Italy are not immune either, with Spain having suffered €100 billion in outflows since the middle of last year (certainly more now), and Italy having lost €230 billion, representing roughly 15% of its GDP.14

As we've stated before, no matter what happens in the Eurozone, the absolute worst case scenario for the authorities is a bank run. It terrifies all involved, because they can spiral out of control faster than governments can react to stop them, save for the most Draconian measures. They also prompt banks to liquidate whatever assets they can, revealing the truth about what their "assets" are actually worth. In this environment, no one wants to find out what the market will really pay for them. We're seeing this now in Spain, where according to Bloomberg, "Many Spanish banks are avoiding property sales so they don't have to "mark to market" valuations. Instead, they're giving developers new loans to pay debt coming due to prevent defaults."15 Sound familiar? We're now at the point where a bank run in one Eurozone country could quickly seize up the entire system - not just in Greece or Spain, but throughout the entire Eurozone and beyond. Greek and Spanish banks are just like all the others; they operate with leverage ratios averaging 25x their equity capital. They are all so overleveraged that it takes very little in deposit withdrawals to cause instantaneous liquidity issues. This is why we'll likely see another ECB-induced printing program announced (with a new abbreviation, hopefully) before a broader bank run can take root. The Eurozone authorities simply cannot risk the consequences of bank runs in countries like Spain, Portugal or Italy, which are far too big to bailout for the over-stretched ECB. It's not about Greece staying or leaving the European Union anymore, it's about the bailout ability of European banking system to survive the impact of massive money transfers.

Nothing is really being solved here, and everyone knows it. We're essentially in the same place we were when the crisis erupted back in 2010, only now there's more total debt outstanding. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney remarked in a December 2011 speech that "the global Minsky moment has arrived", and it's now plain for all to see.16 The "Minsky moment" refers to the work of Hyman Minsky, a deceased American economist who developed theories on how debt accumulation eventually leads to financial crises. You don't have to be an economist to understand the crux of Minsky's theories. As an economy grows it takes on increasing amounts of debt. The point eventually comes when the cost of servicing that debt can no longer be met by that economy's productive capacity - that's the Minsky Moment, and we're watching it play out all over the world today. When Greek bond yields spiked back in February 2012, bond investors looking at the country's €368 billion of debt outstanding, its population of 11 million people, and its nominal GDP of $312 billion realized that it couldn't possibly work. There was no way Greece could pay the interest on its debt load. There was no way the bond market could keep pretending everything was ok, like it currently does with the UK, US and Japan… for now.

Greece clearly needs another large-scale bailout, and we think they'll get one. Greece's exit from the Eurozone represents a Lehman-like scenario to the global banking system - why wait to see what carnage it will unleash? It's always easier to print money, and printing another couple €100 billion is nothing compared to the trillions that have been printed since last November. Where this will get tense, however, is when the market acknowledges the Minsky moment in a larger EU economy, like Spain or Italy. As we go to print, Spanish bond yields are now trading back above 6.5%, signaling the market's non-confidence in the country's ability to back-stop its own banking system. Spain has a population of 47 million, a GDP of roughly $1.3 trillion, national debt of roughly $1.1 trillion, debt owed to the ECB and various bailout funds totaling €643 billion, and now, a banking system that also appears close to collapsing.17 Their Minsky Moment has already arrived, and it's simply a matter now of how the market will react to it, and how long it takes the ECB to come to Spain's rescue.

Without a doubt, the most counterintuitive aspect of the Greece/Eurozone debacle has been its impact on the price of gold. Gold is now back below $1600 for the third time since August 2011; each time has coincided with severe banking stress within Greece and the broader Eurozone. Some pundits have suggested that various European banks are selling gold to raise liquidity, and this would make sense if the Eurozone banks had gold to sell, but we cannot find any evidence of large physical sellers out of Europe. Also, ever since the unlimited US-dollar SWAP agreement was launched in November 2011, USD liquidity has not been the key issue in Europe - rising sovereign bond yields and deposit withdrawals have. On the contrary, the selling pressure in gold once again appears to be expressed primarily through the futures markets, which are highly levered and rarely involve any physical transactions involving actual bullion. The futures market sell-off also appears to be waning now, since the European banking crisis has provided central banks with a politically-palatable excuse to take action if it deteriorates any further.

The recent gold price has been particularly frustrating given the continuation of bullish demand trends out of China. China posted another record Hong Kong gold import number in March of 62.9 tonnes. Gold imports into China have now totaled 135.5 metric tonnes between January and March 2012, representing a 600% increase over the same period last year.18 We don't have to connect the dots here - China is stockpiling the precious metal while investors in the West scratch their heads wondering why the spot price is so low.

CHINA HONG KONG GOLD IMPORTS AND GOLD SPOT PRICE
Source: UBS, Bloomberg

Non-G6 central banks have also continued to accumulate physical gold, with the latest reports revealing another 70 tonnes of gold purchases completed in March and April by the central banks of Philippines, Turkey, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Sri Lanka.19 We won't bore you with the exercise of annualizing those numbers and comparing them to the annual global mine supply, but suffice it to say that the fundamentals still remain firmly intact. It's now simply a matter of improving sentiment towards gold in the West, and if the current banking crisis in Europe gets any worse, or if we see another large-scale policy response, it will likely happen on its own accord.

Although the last eight months have not played out the way we would have expected for gold, they have played out the way we envisioned for the banks. The question now is how long this can go on for, and how long gold can remain under pressure in a banking crisis that has the potential to spread beyond Greece and Spain? So much now rests on the policy responses fashioned by the US Fed and ECB, and just as much also rests on what's left of European citizens' confidence in their local banking institutions. Neither of these things can be precisely measured or predicted, but we continue to firmly believe that depositors in Greece and Spain will choose gold over drachmas or pesetas if they have the foresight and are given the freedom to act accordingly. The number one reason we have always believed gold should be owned, and why we believe it will go higher, is people's growing distrust of the banking system - and we are now there. We will wait and see how the summer develops, and keep our attention firmly focused of the second phase of the bank run now spreading across southern Europe.

34 Comments

criscrossing's picture

First

Yes, yes

optimize's picture

Second?

I'll read this after the post

Be Prepared's picture

Thurd

Quote of the Day - "Nothing is really being solved here, and everyone knows it. We're essentially in the same place we were when the crisis erupted back in 2010, only now there's more total debt outstanding."

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Fourth or maybe fifth

My hands are full of pricks from picking gooseberries this morning.  Good thing I like gooseberries.

Come back in and not one but TWO new posts.  I gots me some readin' t'do.

El Gordo's picture

What

What, me worry?

dmanson's picture

Insightful article

I like Sprott, he's a very cool head and big player. I agree that things are happening that we would have expected with the banks. More bailouts, more "unexpected" debt, etc. Things will likely play out the way most on this board expect (another global financial crisis similar but worse than 2008).

It's just a matter of WHEN and it amazes me to see how many rabbits these guys pull out of hats. I'm okay with it taking a lot longer though. I'd be much happier if my kids were older and I was better prepared for when the financial shit hits the fan.

I used to want it to hurry up and get over with but not anymore. I'm enjoying my middle class "normal life" standard of living and am not looking forward to having to worry about criminals and desperate neighbors. I'm somewhat prepared, but like fire or life insurance, you hope you never need it and life would be better if you didn't.

dropout's picture

If You Owe? You Pay ~ one way or the other.

ALL debt will be paid. Either by the borrower, or by the lender.  

Either with pennies worth dollars, or with dollars worth pennies.

One way or the other ~ it WILL be paid. No getting around it.

bam's picture

@OutlookingIn

Not completely. Quite often a third party will pay.  ie the Taxpayer (or the Public or group of countries or whatever).

Private debter/lender relationship troubles are being forced on the public at an increasing rate.  So even if you do not borrow or lend, you will pay.

croc987's picture

WB7 pic of greek depositors

Lanikai's picture

Sprott and BTFD

I have added to pslv and phys - Sprott's physical trusts (which get capital gain rates of 15% as opposed to 28% for collectibles such as Au, Ag).

I do not consider Sprott's physical trusts, bullion vault, and goldmoney to be paper (electronic-internet based yes) and sleep well even though there's the slight worry of a flame like implosion or black-out that could happen.  Thoughts and comments?  Other than 'if you don't hold it, you don't own it'

croc987's picture

@historiography

I also own PSLV as well as phyzz.  I do not own goldmoney but it looks like it has potential.  Each has its own advantages and disadvantages.  PSLV should be OK as long as the broker and the clearinghouse DTCC remains solvent, assuming shares are held in "street name" by a broker at DTCC.  I have seen some negative commentary about bullionvault in that it is owned by the Rothschilds who are supposed to be part of the "ascot and brandy snifter" branch of the evil empire. 

Beez's picture

My local radio/financial guy again...

...sent this email yesterday. Greece, Euro banking, Facebook and he talks about real estate at the end.

The Greek citizens are now voting for the politician that vows NOT to cut spending.

But if Greece doesn’t cut spending, the Euro Bank won’t give them any more loans!

If Greece doesn’t get any more loans it runs out of money. It will pull out of the EURO and pay its debts by printing its own currency Drachmas. But guess what would happen to the Drachma!

It would plummet yielding massive inflation in Greece and wreck havoc on markets everywhere.

There is no way out. Cut spending to get loans and the citizen’s vote in a party that stops the cuts. Don’t cut and you don’t get loans and run out of money.

Greece is small but similar to the Lehman failure here that started the crisis! If Greece goes, next up is Spain and Italy and they are many times the size and in the top ten of economic regions in the world! And get this, the Euro banking system is 3 times the size of ours! If you think our banking implosions was bad, you just wait!!!!!

Time is ticking and the dominoes are tilting! There are very few options and those that exist are not palatable to the Euro banking system, the citizens and politicians of the region! An implosion is all but baked into the cake that will compare to what we saw before. Like I said “This thing is coming back” and the path it will come down will be the Greek exit. I doubt a peaceful resolution will be forthcoming but what you will hear is a lot of SPIN to keep investors from hitting the panic button. Already money is fleeing the Greek banking system as investors are pulling their money out in anticipation of Drachmas being substituted for their Euros.

There is a bank run in Greece!  The fear contagion will now spread to Spanish and Italian banks shortly thereafter. The Central Banks of the world will spew forth TRILLIONS in new bailouts to stem the tides. You thought you saw a lot of bank bailouts before?

You just wait. “you aint seen nuthin’ yet!”

Look for spin and assurance that things are manageable (like they said about Lehman right before the s… hit the fan). Smart money is fleeing now!  

An implosion cometh.

Adding insult, the Facebook failure is the sign the exuberance in our markets is again concluding. With no Fed printing programs scheduled (that will change) and its “Operation Twist” ending in a few weeks, the markets are falling. Insiders are dumping stock and have been for months. All signs point to an imminent correction in all markets.

Being such, I am HOLDING OFF on all, repeat, ALL new stock purchases! No dividend payers, currency funds, NOTHING. Stay in cash and wait. If the FEDS (not if, but when) announce a new program, then you can start buying again for the next rally, but for now, danger lurks, stay away. Look for a new FED announcement in the coming weeks.

As for real estate buyers, I know you hear its stabilizing but I am warning you now!

Wait! If the markets fall, real estate will grind to a HALT and lower prices will follow. Those telling you otherwise are the same ones who missed it the last ten times. They will learn HOPE is not a recipe for remedy. They will again learn a terrible lesson about world economics and their effect on real estate.

boatman's picture

the rest of the world followeth

Beez

this particular  die was cast decades ago, hell, almost a century.

and after the coming BIGBADABUST and GREATRESET............it will start all over again.

only next time it won't take as long.

human nature changes and things come to be as they could?

not to a history student like me.

young ones can dream on...its good for you.

reality workin' just fine for me.

he said with a big smile.

The Death Ceiling's picture

Krugman

Just watched an interview on the bbc where Paul Krugman says Greece "must and will leave the Euro". Admitting also that if the ECB were to expand their money supply they would have to raise their inflation expectations.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/hardtalk/default.stm

Lanikai's picture

Is Sprott - pslv, phys safe?

Just spoke with them:  Concerning Sprott Physical Trust for both gold and silver, it's all about margin.  If you own shares of PSLV or PHYS with a brokerage such as Fidelity, TdAmeritrade, Scott, etc., and you have any stocks or holdings on margin, you have basically agreed to have any of your portfolio re-hypothocated (raided and plundered).

Here's what they emailed:

Our clearing firm, RBC Correspondent Services, is a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. RBC Capital Markets, LLC is a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). SIPC is a nonprofit membership corporation funded by its member security broker-dealers. SIPC protects the securities clients of its members in the event of a failure of a member firm. SIPC reimburses clients the cash value of their securities up to $500,000 per client. Any cash in a client’s account would be reimbursed by SIPC up to $250,000 (reducing the $500,000 above).

RBC Capital Markets, LLC, has purchased an additional policy that offers coverage in excess of the protection provided by SIPC. This coverage covers additional securities and cash protection up to $99.5 million per client, of which $90re of MF Global, a number of Global Resource Investments, Ltd. clients have contacted us expressing concern over the security of their assets. The following table highlights some of the most important differences between MF Global’s regulatory, custody, and insurance structures and those protecting your assets at Global Resource Investments and our custodian, RBC Capital Markets LLC.

John Galt's picture

@ historiography re: Sprott

Sprott's phyz is stored at Royal Canadian Mint, which has its main location in Ottawa - although I believe Sprott's stash is actually stored in a little discussed underground RCM facility in Toronto.

Regardless, your only claim to your share of this stash is your receipt a.k.a. the paper or digital one the trust issued to you. IMO in a SHTF situation the Canadian gov't might declare a national emergency and nationalize this stash (especially in light of how little PM this country actually holds in reserve). 

In that event you will keep your claim to your share, but might find that it gets settled in fiat, not physical.

It might be worth reading the fine print of your prospectus, but even if the paper receipt guarantees allocated bullion behind your claim it will do little good if your access to it is denied by a sealed vault that has been nationalized, with a military guard standing to protect it - from you.

IMO the better option is to buy the phyz with cash; no name/address on the receipt; take your shiny on a scenic canoe ride, and pay 0% capital gains.

Lanikai's picture

Sprott Compared to MF Global

MF Global

Sprott - Global Resource Investments, Ltd.

Customer funds in excess of those held at custodian co-mingled and controlled by MF Global

All customer funds held at custodian (RBC Capital Markets LLC) and legally segregated in a reserve account pursuant to SEC rules. Fully-paid customer securities segregated and may not be lent or rehypothecated by GRIL or custodian.

CFTC oversight of futures accounts; no insurance against theft or failure of broker.

SEC oversight of all brokerage accounts; SIPC and Excess of SIPC protection on all customer accounts

 
 

for more details)

Customer accounts not fully-disclosed to custodian(s); individual customer information and holdings only available to MF Global

Customer accounts fully-disclosed to custodian and all customer assets segregated on the books of custodian.

AlienEyes's picture

Just like old times...

Remember Jimmah Carter?

I do and it weren't pretty. Inflation is now absolutely unavoidable and so is a Paul Volker response, sooner or later. De facto, the inflation has already started, at the grocery store and at the ammunition store. Food and lead are forecasting our future and it smells like J.C. (Jimmy Carter) to the ultra max. Methinks we will see a run, not just on banks, but from congress and from US territory. It will be a run for your life for more than a few members of congress. When Frank, Pelosi, Reid, Boxer, Feinstein and Dodd, to mention just a few, decide to "take an extended vacation in France", be advised that the excrement has struck the fan.

Hat tip to beez! Spot On.

Lanikai's picture

J Galt, I agree, lol in a meltdown

as the Sprott broker said: in a true shtf situation, there would be no market to buy and sell out of, no protection, it would all be gone, lol.

Nationalized, or the vaults slammed by 747s off course.

John Galt's picture

@ histiography

When the SHTF I hope your strategy works out. Good luck!

John Galt's picture

@ historiography...sorry, typo

sorry for typo on your name

El Gordo's picture

Greece's future

Wouldn't it be something if Greece left the EU and then declared itself a tax haven for rich folks and politicians trying to protect their stash from the rioting masses when the SHTF.  The country would be overrun with foreign exchange and hard assets to be protected from the rest of the world's ruins.

Zoltan's picture

The Boss

Bruce Springsteen
Jack Of All Trades lyrics

I'll mow your lawn, clean the leaves out your drain
I'll mend your roof to keep out the rain
I'll take the work that God provides
I'm a Jack of all trades, honey, we'll be alright

I'll hammer the nails, and I'll set the stone
I'll harvest your crops when they're ripe and grown
I'll pull that engine apart and patch her up 'til she's running right
I'm a Jack of all trades, we'll be alright

A hurricane blows, brings a hard rain
When the blue sky breaks, feels like the world's gonna change
We'll start caring for each other like Jesus said that we might
I'm a Jack of all trades, we'll be alright
[ Lyrics from: http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/b/bruce_springsteen/jack_of_all_trades.html ]
The banker man grows fatter, the working man grows thin
It's all happened before and it'll happen again
It'll happen again, they'll bet your life
I'm a Jack of all trades and, darling, we'll be alright

Now sometimes tomorrow comes soaked in treasure and blood
Here we stood the drought, now we'll stand the flood
There's a new world coming, I can see the light
I'm a Jack of all trades, we'll be alright

So you use what you've got, and you learn to make do
You take the old, you make it new
If I had me a gun, I'd find the bastards and shoot 'em on sight
I'm a Jack of all trades, we'll be alright
I'm a Jack of all trades, we'll be alright

 
Has been a long time since I bought a CD.  Highly recommend this one.
 
Z
croc987's picture

@historiography

Is PSLV safe? I have struggled with this problem for a couple of years.

I am not worried in the least about Sprott,  they have allocated and inventoried metal backing up their funds.  The problem comes in with the brokerage and clearinghouse system.  

TD Ameritrade told me that the PSLV in my IRA was held in "street name" at the DTCC.  The DTCC clearinghouse is owned by the TBTF banks.  If the SHTF , then DTCC would have presumably have legal title to the securities.  Deposits in brokerages are only safe if the brokerage and the clearinghouse system does not collapse.  If it does you are dependent on government backed insurance (i. e. IOU from entity that already owes 16 trill) or other guarantees of the brokerage.

Regardless you DEFINITELY do not want your brokerage account to be on margin as this authorizes the brokerage house  to hypothecate your securities.   The TD Ameritrade agreement has specific language about this.

It is possible to receive stock certificates but TDA told me they would not do it.  If there is a brokerage who will, I would like to know about it.  

IRA's and other tax deferred accounts can also be seized or taxed away by the government.  Or they could be converted to mandatory government bonds paying low interest (probably called "Freedom" or "Patriot" Bonds).

I continue to keep my IRA open and i still hold some PSLV for now.
 

Robonz's picture

Share certificates

I think you can cover your ass and get share certificates which binds you directly with Sprott Assets. You will need to look it up or make some phone calls but I am pretty sure you can get them.

Lanikai's picture

Sprott, as good as brokerage ownership gets?

According to Sprott Assets, regardless of the brokerage firm, if you own shares in Sprott Trust as per your statement, they will "apparently" honor that...

from 12/2011 but worth a listen.  First 8:00 is about Sprott safety, EVERYONE needs to listen from 8:00 on what we face in 2012 and as a bonus Sprott will give you a review of your miner portfolio for free.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/12/29_Rick_Rule.html

croc987's picture

@historiography

Yeah, PSLV is probably as good as it gets with a brokerage.  There are going to be at least 2 counterparties not including Sprott.    Possibly Sprott would honor ownership of shares even if legally not required.  When I spoke with a Sprott rep they advised me to try to get certificates through the brokerage.  

lostinspace's picture

Hey Satan can I ask you a few

Hey Satan can I ask you a few questions about the Federal Reserve??

Ran_capital's picture

We all need to secure ourselves with commodities

I specialize in trading gold, silver, miners and other commodities.  Feel free to check out the blog for ideas.

http://rancapital.blogspot.com/

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