The Latest Gold and Silver Breakdown
Of course I'm not going to suggest that you attempt to catch the falling knife, however, those still trading may soon see an opportunity to buy.
First, let's look at the long-term chart we've been following for years. Is it possible for price to break DOWN and out of the channel? Of course it is, I just didn't think it would. But, similar to the break UP and out following the S&P downgrade of the U.S. last August, gold can break DOWN yet the overall trend remains in this "managed ascent".

Just for kicks, here is today's 5-minute chart. Roughly 6000 contracts dumped at the Comex open started the whitewash and has left gold clinging to support at the round number of 1600.

As we hold all core positions and use any and all bouts of weakness to add to physical stacks, where might there be a trade? Well, let's look closely at two longer-term charts. First, this daily chart. Note that gold remains in the same, old, $80-range down channel but also note the reflexive short-covering that has occurred on previous drops to the lower extreme of the channel.

And $1575 also looks like the beginning of support in this weekly chart, too. NOT saying that gold can't continue lower, through 1575, as it certainly can. However, anything between 1525 and 1575 sure looks like an attractive entry point for a possible trade.

Lastly, from a LONG TERM perspective, please keep this in mind: On 5/9/11 (May 8 was a Sunday), gold closed at $1503. This equates to a year-over-year return of nearly +7%. For perspective, the S&P 500 ended 5/9/11 at 1346. This equates to a year-over-year return of less than 1%. Stitch that into your clothes, Charlie, you FOAD!
Please hang in there and keep the faith. Your gold (and silver) is your only protection. TF
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Comments
I love this! Plain, simple,
I love this! Plain, simple, straight-forward! There really should be no fear of lower gold and silver prices in the short term, in light of what is just around the corner, chaos, utter confusion and disorder. How do you prepare mentally for something like this? Not sure you can
om shanti
Love the image of the Buddha, we continue to bless those we wish to disappear, so blessed be Blythe and the many evil doers of the world who manifest suffering...
meanwhile chant, the trendline will hold, so stack 'em long term.
Reply to HL post: Board has approved a stock repurchase program. Hecla is authorized to repurchase up to 20 million shares of its outstanding common stock from time to time, with the purchases expected to occur over the next 24 months.
Re: Punk
The credit suisse bars are actually cheaper than the general our choice bars right now.
http://www.providentmetals.com/1-ounce-9999-fine-gold-credit-suisse-bar-with-assay-card.html
It isn't super uncommon for some random bar/coin to be cheaper than getting the our choice version so I always make a point to check. What really weirds me out is when the buy back price is higher for the our choice.
Salinas
I thought that was a great interview as well albeit rather beak. Hold on to your hats!
Blythe...
She is the mother of the Credit Default Swap as well. She came up with the idea during a JPM offsite after the Valdez grounded. I am pretty sure the first CDS ever done was brokered by JPM for Exxon, about $7B I think. Counterparty was some EE Euro-environmental group. All from memory, but likely to be ~correct. Few people on earth have wrought as much evil as this one individual.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness"
Prophetic words from Frank L?
Re:Salinas
That's right Bleak. The single greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind. I guess it depends on which side of the wealth transfer you'll be on.
FU...BM
Feeling Uncivilized...Buying More
Great Interview
5:10 mark gets right to the heart of real (Constitutional) money and why they took us off of it. Gains in productivity accrue to the people via deflation. With fiat, gains in productivity accrue to the bankers.
We have technology and toys that make most feel our standard of living is better, but the reality is that it takes 2 incomes now for most people to live the equivalent lifestyle of a one income family in the 70's. Globalization, and other factors are obviously at play, but there's no way to conceive of what the average standard of living might be after generations of unprecedented productivity gains...if they had been accruing to the people under a real money system.
Gold Demand - Physical vs. ETFs
I'm not usually into charts much ... But this one intrigues me as it certainly suggests the paper-side is indeed slowly dying in favour of the physical side.
Natural gas stocks
http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2012/05/natural-gas-stocks-shorts-are-leaving.html
My latest post
Bought more today.
Cheaper than I bought yesterday, happy days. a 10oz coin, a 5oz coin a 1oz coin, a 1/2oz coin and a 1/4oz coin, all Noahs ark Armenian fine silver.
Tomorrow I am going to Dublin to buy a car for 175 euro. Only 47000 miles on it but needs a bit of work, around 200 euro and a few days on my back should do it. It has 4 new tyres on it, they cost more than i will pay for the whole car. Even better, I get to trawl the few shops that have coins in Ireland. 3 hours on the bus to get to a coin shop, Bah! Sometimes life is good.
I can't believe I used to drive a V8 BMW. Expensive repairs, gas guzzler, high insurance, expensive tax and so many complicated systems to go wrong. I got one of these for 330 euro, 3 years ago. I've spent 230 euro on it since, 1.1 litre, 4 cylinder, nippy, park anywhere, basic and cheap as hell to run. The car I'm buying tomorrow is the exact same for the wife. All 3 of our BMWs are now history. Long live frugality and frivolity! No depreciation on this car, 175 to what? If anything they will go up in value just like the v8s have come down due to the price of running them.
As for metal prices, I no longer care. I'm buying till the war is over, then I'll decide what to do. This has to end in war, if not, I'll keep buying. Don't need the money for anything else. I reckon I've got 40 years of stacking ahead. I guess it will be worth something in the end?
@Kcap
I agree with your underlying 'monitoring' premise more than you know. However, given that, your suggestion would
a) deprive Turdland and its denizens (both active and those still silent) of the beacon and foghorn that is the information and analysis Turd provides, while
b) STILL be giving those algos the 'juice' of common man's sentiment.
It would keep us in the dark (as to information the EE ALREADY HAS), deprive us of guidance, encouragement and support, lessen the level of dialogue and create a vacuum. Yet it would continue to allow THIS type of manipulation to take place, by continuing to feed them the responses of the unguided/undirected, even more 'stream of consciousness', 'free association' dialogue of people known to be interested (and invested) in PMs.
Taken to its logical conclusion, this premise would lead to a suggestion of shutting down the site altogether, to better protect us from the nefarious activities of TPTB.
My, wouldn't they like that.
I'm sure that's not what you meant, right?
There are two ways to look at this:
(apologies in advance to German Turdites, I realize the image/phrase is misappropriated)
This is a very asymmetrical engagement, information-wise and in every other aspect. One of the very few benefits we have are our numbers, and the unfettered flow of information. Keeping said information throttled, contained, polluted and perverted is one of the key objectives of the parties we are talking about.
Yes, those with enough resources ARE mining our very thoughts and expressions for more power and more personal/class gain, be they .gov or private sector. However, keeping the barometer's needle from moving (or being able to measure every 0.000001 unit of its movement) is not going to stop the stormclouds and the hard rain that's coming.
Re :- "Civilized people don't buy gold"
"Civilized people don't buy gold," Berkshire Hathaway's Charles Munger told CNBC the other day. Echoing his partner, Warren Buffett, Munger said civilized people instead "invest in productive businesses," adding, "Gold is a great thing to sew into your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939." (See http://www.gata.org/node/11324.)
As indignant as such a comment may make certain gold investors, most are probably accustomed to such disparagement by the financial establishment, and greater indignation should be directed toward the mainstream financial news media for not seeking out any rebuttal, even if the rebuttal is obvious enough.
Perhaps first is that gold as money is the primary mechanism of enforcing limited government, and limited government is the first characteristic of civilized government. The distance between gold as money and unlimited fiat money is the distance between limited government and unlimited government, between democracy and totalitarianism.
The trend toward unlimited government lately has become overwhelming, from the stupid imperial wars being waged by the United States every few years to the comprehensive surveillance undertaken under the "Patriot Act" to the "financial repression" that even a recent member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors complained about a few months ago (http://www.gata.org/node/10839). This prompts our friend Bill A. to chide Munger that the United States in 2012 is in danger of becoming like Vienna in 1939, insofar as anyone now is subject to the abuse heaped on Jews by the Nazis.
Maybe it's not quite that bad yet, but then the capacity for such abuse is the sort of thing gold as money aims to prevent. And of course gold was the first thing the Nazi occupation seized from both conquered governments and individuals, as gold was, as it remains, a protector of individual liberty as well as a power that competes with government's power.
An excellent rebuttal.
http://www.gata.org/node/11330
I moved to the middle-of-nowhere to get away from modern "civilisation" .... and prats like "Munger the Minger" remind me why I like being a barbarian throwback.
Storing rice
Just thought I'd chip in on the storing rice thing (I have more experience on it than you can imagine..). In Japan they store rice in non airtight cedar wood boxes as cedar wood has antibacterial properties and is also very water absorbent so it keeps the humidity in check. We also put a couple of very hot dried chillies in with the rice as this keeps pests away. Not sure how this works exactly but we have some rice that's been sitting in boxes like this for a good 3-4 years and is still perfectly fine.
@bobbejan
You make it sound so terrible, like there was a downside to the Scottish countryside? I used to love getting up in the morning and stepping outside in Blair Atholl, just hills and the gurgle of the river to assault the senses. Ireland is nice but I miss the green of Scotland, Irish green has a brown tint to it and is not as pleasing on the eye. Nowhere near as vibrant. Tis a dirty 'emerald' isle.
Coming over in a month for the first time in years but unfortunately staying in Scumdee. Know of any coin shops around? My internet search has thrown up 1 antique dealer.
Another reminder that "If you don't hold it, you may not own it"
The claims appeared in court documents filed in the Supreme Court which describe a hunt for at least $150,000 worth of "missing" silver ingots amid a fight for control of the company running the high security vault, The Reserve Vault.
The company is defending the action and has denied all of the allegations.
The man previously in charge of the vault, Peter Rex Sands, was declared bankrupt in December, making it illegal for him to be a director of a corporation.
... MORE
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/the-reserve-vault-in-brisb...
CoT Data VS Silver Price Action
I’m not like Turd, I will suggest that you attempt to catch the falling knife.
When you look at the CoT data, you see where commercials got caught in two short squeezes in 2010 and 2011. Since that time commercials have been playing their hand damn near perfect. I hypothesize that commercials have learned their lesson from those two short squeezes, they will not be caught in that position again. You’ve got to believe they are dropping shorts and adding longs (or dropping less longs than shorts) into this weakness, that’s exactly what they’ve been doing since second short squeeze, I don’t see why they’d stop now. The answer will come Friday, does this index continue down or spike back up (or spike up very little). If it spikes up, we are in for much larger drop, but if it were to do that, I think we’d see a much larger drop today. Maybe they were rigging the CoT data today only to attack tomorrow, this is very plausible, just need to get through tomorrow. I think index continues down, and if so, we are on the verge of a very nice correction, now is not the time to run away, now is the time to start layering in. I’m the most bullish I’ve been in months.
On a side note, SI price seems to be holding up fine against continued dollar strength after hours, very worried about price over night.
First link is furthest back in time, last link is current.
http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/34093ea7-8811-4932-bea4-0ec81798063e
http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/dc96344b-7735-4eed-8d88-c2fde77b7319
http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/aa32063b-a7e9-42ed-95f3-0a1868dad739
http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/dc46aa6e-4297-4600-bf1a-9bd5cc297078
Edit: I'm not a very experienced trader, listen to me at your own peril.
I DON'T NOW ABOUT YOU GUYS....
I LOVE TO GO FISHING. NOTHING BETTER THAN KILLING SOME MEAT.
@ abreik
Damn Skippy! Thank you for that.
always an interesting read!
new report details the $15T story from a few weeks ago
http://tdarkcabal.blogspot.com/
They should buy gold, they'll have banks jumping to open accts.
U.S. Millionaires Told Go Away as Tax Evasion Rule Looms
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-08/u-s-millionaires-told-go-away-a...
I'm stumped
"Yet their ability to keep Europe on course until its peoples have yielded up their sovereignty and agreed to submerge themselves in a single entity is now in question. From Paris to Athens, the radical left and the nationalist right are resurgent. Marxists and patriots dream different dreams than the disciples of Jean Monnet.
From inception, the European project was built on a Faustian bargain...If the nations of Europe would surrender their sovereignty, let their identities be diluted through immigration and open borders, and submerge themselves in a larger and more inclusive Europe, their peoples would be rewarded with an unparalleled prosperity.
Surrender your souls, and we will make you rich, secure and happy, said the eurocrats to the peoples of Europe...After two terrible wars, Europe’s peoples took the bribe.
...Now the bill has come due. The left is saying: We want our pensions restored, our public employees rehired. If our leaders need more money, take it from the rich, take it from the banks, take it from the big corporations.
The right is saying: We want our countries and culture back. We want our borders closed. We want no more immigration from the rest of Europe or the rest of the world.
Let France be France again. Let Greece be Greece again.
Tribalism, radicalism and socialism are the growth stocks of the new Europe."
http://takimag.com/article/is_this_the_end_of_one_europe_patrick_buchanan/print#ixzz1uKBnvTjH
-------------------------------------------------------
Well, TF and Pat B. both see Europe dissolving. Many are figuring they'll let countries go after they gain access to the gold (Greece gave it up, Italy would be forced to). I feel like I'm betting against men wiser than me, but I can't help but see it differently.
Sure, they'll take the gold...maybe to be used as money, or maybe just to try to lock out an alternative system. Their real wealth is not the gold, IMO. I think they won't let countries out of the EU. I think that for these parasites, your need to drink is an asset, your need to eat, your medical care, your need to drive the roads and move freely. I think the claws will sink only deeper. Why just rob them once when you profit and feed off of every aspect of their existence? If they get their way, I think the people will wish they'd just taken the gold and run, leaving the people to be poor, but free.
Alternative currencies.
Just a heads up for anyone looking at currencies, we save in PMs here in Ireland but we have a nest egg in Poland too. Polish Zloty has a lot going for it now the Swissie is pegged. I think of it as a commodity currency, large silver producing country, copper, loads of coal, (most of europe supplied) massive agriculture industry and located between Germany and Russia, right in the heart of Europe.
Benchmark interest rate is 4.5%, 4.3% growth last year and no recession during the crisis, no bailouts, no issues except inflation creeping up. 3.9%, (expect an interest rate hike soon). Banks will pay 7-10% on deposits which is better than the 1-2% you can get here in Ireland.
If you are stacking bits and bobs of foreign currency, PLN is worth trading a few thousand dollars/euro to hold. IMO
I'm no forex specialist though, this is just my opinion. It just makes sense to me, if there are flaws in my plan I'd like to hear them.
Stack...pre 83 pennies and all nickels..writing on the wall
Testimony cites savings from using steel
http://www.coinworld.com/articles/testimony-cites-savings-from-using-steel/
A BETTER WEAPON WOULD BE...
A GLOCK, OR 38 CAL WITH SOME WINCHESTER RANGER -T - SERIES AMMO WOULD BE THE TICKET.
JY896
Correction
to my earlier post:
"no way to conceive of what the average standard of living might be"
I was wrong. It would be EXACTLY like this:
Jetsons, bitchez.
Random: Bullet impacts @ 1 million FPS
Crisp videography.
I run barter town,that's not
I run barter town,that's not realistic! they still used fiat FRNs in the cartoon.. :)
Alternative Currencies
Interesting post Number 47! I think about this subject a lot myself and in all the research I've done, I've never came across the Zloty. I've often seen people recommend the Norwegian Krone, another commodity currency and some still recommend the Swissie even after the peg to the Euro. However, I think the problem with all of these currencies is that they are all pegged to the Euro, explicitly or not. If the Euro collapses, they will all surely go down with it (at least at first).
What does the Polish bank say about the Zloty? At one point I was all set to get some Norwegian Krone but I found a bunch of statements from their central bank condemning the strength of their currency. They were making Japanese/Swiss-like threats about intervening if need be. If the Polish bank isn't expressing any serious concerns about the Zloty's strength, it could be a good choice for those living in Europe.
Lately I've been leaning towards the Singapore dollar. I've been reading more and more about Singapore having a strong economy and banking system - some say it will eventually be the financial capital of the world. I think the Singapore dollar would take less of a hit from a Euro collapse than other European currencies.
Of course, if you're just accumulating fiat for a SHTF scenario then the main thing is for the currency to be recognizable and accepted in your community. I'm not sure how valuable the Singapore dollar would be in Europe for barter and trade.
I'd say the safest bet would be to collect a small basket of currencies in addition to your PMs and preps of course