Quick Update
Here comes a stream of consciousness. Probably not a good idea but here goes.
I think this is all a big setup. However, this time, it's an opposite setup to what we're used to.
The action this week seems to be a coordinated effort to suck in and trap as many spec shorts as possible ahead of tomorrow.
Every headline this week that could possibly be used to raid the gold market has been utilized.
Today is the latest example but note that the dollar was declining and silver was flat.
The decline after the claims number was released was on less than 2000 contracts. The Cartel pulled their bids and allowed the WOPRs to quickly drop price through some sell stops at 1640. This process has continued to this moment as gold has now made a low near 1635.
This final drop was worked in around the London PM fix and now gold will likely trade sideways to higher the rest of the day as WOPR positions are squared before the close.
The stage is now set for a massive short squeeze tomorrow. Look, I have no idea what the BLSBS will be. How could I know? Maybe we'll get 7.9%, 250,000 jobs and $100 down in gold. I have no idea. What I do know, however, is this: Today reeks of a final suck-in of shorts ahead of the number. Does The Cartel know what the number will be? Maybe. I can tell you this: The likelihood of them knowing ahead of time is infinitely higher than the likelihood of me knowing.
With so many weak handed longs stopped out this week, there are really none left. And now, all of the weak hands are on the short side. They look ripe to be squeezed.
A spike tomorrow, post the BLSBS, looks likely. Just as how The EE allowed the final silver spec longs to be drawn in on Feb 28 ahead of The Leap Day Beatdown, The Gold Cartel has allowed the final gold spec shorts to be drawn in today.
A spike tomorrow will cause extreme pressure on the gold shorts. A move back toward 1660 and beyond will cause them to cover. London is closed on Monday. This may cause additional shorts to cover. Would you want to be short over the weekend if NFP comes in at under 100,000?
Our pal Andy just sent me an email informing me that Shanghai silver traded with a premium to futures of $1.26 overnight! $1.26!. There is serious to extreme physical demand near $30 for silver. The paper market for silver is a joke and is being made obsolete. Anyone short silver is playing with fire.
Andy also told me of huge sovereign and central bank orders for physical at 1635 and 1625, though we were both surprised at the willingness to fill the orders at 1645. Every time The Cartel takes paper gold down, they lose more physical metal out the back door. This cannot continue much longer. It simply cannot.
Uncle Ted kicks ass. Here's an excerpt from his latest:
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Comments
Our problems are, ultimately,
Our problems are, ultimately, bigger than fiat value of anything.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/volatility-demand-accidentally-catching-54...
Interesting symbols - I love the cross through the crown
http://www.yorkrite.org/
@ Apples RE: Spam from Dealers
Yep. I get one a day from 3 different dealers. They used to be one a week, so they're really pushing it now.
One question that I cannot get over is this: If I had a bullion store, and I understood the markets as these folks clearly do, and I knew that paper currencies were failing...and debt is unpayable and all that jazz that comes with it...
would I be seriously going out of my way to sell my bullion????
Yeah, I know. They use $ like the rest of us...and it's a business and they need to eat, too... but I can't see someone, who owns and deals in PM's, being the type of person to sink every bit of his money into bullion so as to "have" to sell to make ends meet.
A noob, as he/she starts to put the puzzle together and starts to panic, sure. A seasoned PM dealer?? No way.
I can see a PM dealer sitting back and holding until the prices go up, providing demand was there... or at least not selling as much as is demanded (sought). I get the cost average thing...like maybe they bought a certain amount at $18 and want to profit at $32 or something. What if they bought at $27, demand tanks, and their sitting there with bullion and no buyers? Well, wouldn't that dictate that prices would fall through the floor?? One would think that would happen. In that case, I could see a push in advertising.
Then again, say they're holding and have no demand. Do you think that if the spot price went to $18, that you'd see ounces available for $18 plus a premium comparable to what we see now??? I doubt it.
Something ain't right.
Marc Faber quotes
From August, 2011
“The whole world is mad,” was the inestimable Marc Faber’s assessment of yesterday’s big sell-off.”
“Stocks will be dropping 30%, and then rallying 20% and dropping another 30% — that’s going to be the pattern,” he told Bloomberg interviewers. “And whoever can’t live with that shouldn’t be buying equities at all.”
From February, 2012
Investment legend Marc Faber reports that once a country's payments on debt exceed 30% of tax revenue, the currency is "done for." By some estimates, the US will hit that ratio this year.
And my personal favorite from this website:
http://www.austrianinvesting.com/2011_02_01_archive.html
"If you can't handle 30% downside volatility when you buy something, don't even get out of bed in the morning"
EE / HFT / and SMALL SPECULATORS running this game
Turd, did you know about this thread?
There is a bunch of guys calling Buttler, Harvey, GATA, Turd, etc...liars and charlatans.
"...I agree that Turd's piece (linked by Jim H) was quite humorous, but if this guy were serious I would expect him to respond not only with comedic sarcasm, but by coming and being the expert he perports himself to be, by showing me up in this thread for why I'm wrong. But so far it would seem that all the most prominent gold bugs are each making up their own respective excuses for not participating. Telling to say the very least."
I am very suspicious that there is a professional team of trolls coming every week with agenda as we approach to final stage of this crisis, one of them I am convince is "Victor the cleaner", he is very knowledgeable (very specific data), sound professional and have a lot, I mean a lot of time to replay many times a day,(like his only job is doing this, mmmm.)
Be aware of this folks since they are not just regular trolls.
@ Ferd T
I saw this posted on another site. I've no idea of it's veracity and have not had time to evaluate the site...........
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2012/04/30/raw-reports-nuclear-threat-from-...
I forgot the link
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/harvey-organ-get-physical-gold-silver/73933?page=18#comments
it is a long thread, comment above is on page 19, todays date.
Someone asked- I am definitely going long on paper
silver within next 2 weeks.. I would like to see an uptrend already before I do, it should show up soon. Also, I should set up an account and fill it with some paper money, should I not:)
My other indicator is GSR. Its growing, but closing on the potential top-its 54,3 right now, and I think within one-two weeks it could reach 55-56. That should be silver bottom, the highest GSR. So there is one more indicator to watch. If it does not grow anymore, also a signal to get in.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78041#comment-78041
As for physical stacking, obviously current silver price is very good. Anything below 32,5 is, until that price level will not be available any more.
Fundamentals have only changed to the worst ( i.e. good for PMs). I guess the beginning of this realization into the PM markets will come from Europe's elections on May 6th -Greece and France, when unity breaks for real. The politicians/bankers are downplaying further easing as long as they can, with stone like expressions, in concerted actions, knowing easing has become unpopular and further easing signaling would indicate heavy doubts about near term economic future. Stocks may start losing steam any moment. Even if they are stagnant at these high levels, its not good enough, as wealth effect loses momentum and people stop spending due to perceived (so far correctly) brighter future in stocks. What is in the stocks now has already been spent.
At the same time Australia drops interest rate by 0,5%, Japan extends easing.
Again, silver will be the first to tick up because of psychological reasons of perceived availability for masses. However, sideways trading can continue also all May, at least uptrend will be slow in the beginning.
Nice Pimp Statement
Really chuckled when I read this pimp statement on KW News:
From KWN: "Greyerz had to say about Swiss refiners: “The gold market may appear quiet right now, but underneath the quiet there is a great deal of action in the physical market. Swiss refiners are telling me they are working ‘round the clock’ because demand for gold is so massive.”
LOL Is the price of physical rising because of that demand? Obviously there is no shortage of physical gold supply to meet that 'round the clock' refining. If that pimp statement was true we should be seeing a separation of paper and physical prices, at least in some locales. Wake me up when gold and silver inventory tightens.
Since nobody will want
to hear my joy at the discount pricing today, I'll just throw out a few replies.
"More Americans Stashing Cash in Home Safes"
I encourage it, of course, but don't get a false sense of security. The crime of the future is home invasion. If you're buying a safe, you should already have good lighting, secure doors, secure windows, weapons, good awareness when entering/leaving home (EVERY family member), be very leery of hiring people to do work, have a Cujo or two...I was looking in a safe store years ago and the salesguy was a condescending ass. I couldn't resist. I told him that with a common blowtorch I could get any safe in the store open in less than a minute. He laughed "Using a blowtorch on our safe would only". I interrupted "Who said I would use the blowtorch on the safe?" Think it through. If you're safe is a hard target, YOU are its soft spot.
"Seems to me Ivan got into a bad batch of vodka. Russia's missile technology borrows heavily from Saddam Hussein's missile technology, which consisted mostly of circuitry from first generation Sony Play Stations and East German war surplus."
I wouldn't count on that. The Soviet system did what corrosive, life-sucking left-wing thought always does (as Salinas pointed out - Socialism impoverishes) and collapsed. Russian technical expertise is another animal entirely. But why should they give a shit what their stuff really can do? When you're dealing with nation known for buying off petty little North Koreans with billions....'just please don't say scary things anymore...here's a few billion in oil and food - again', what the hell? Why not speak of pre-emptive strikes and scare the biggest sissies on the planet? They've probably already been granted a few oil-rich islands off of Alaska just to stop talking.
"The Poor are Getting Poorer. Is It Time to Raise the Minimum Wage?"
That's harsh. What sick bastard would want to guarantee they get poorer? Oh yeah, liberals. Nevermind.
Talking to myself again
Left Brain: "This thing is getting ready to blow."
Right Brain: "Oh, it blows alright."
Ivars
Hi Ivars, have you related oil/gold on your analysis?
do you think Oil/Gold ratio could be important on determine future prices, either oil and gold?
GoldeWave
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/GoldeWave.php
From ShareLynx
Margin Increases
Maybe silver being sold by CME speculators who are looking to avoid margin hike on May 7th and avoid a waterfall like we witnessed this time last year :-(
Margin Increases
Maybe silver being sold by CME speculators who are looking to avoid a margin hike on May 7th and avoid a waterfall like we witnessed this time last year :-(
explanation from Trader Dan
http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/05/cme-issues-clarification-on-performance.html
I really couldn't give a
I really couldn't give a rat's ass what those losers and miscreants think.
All I care about is the BLSBS tomorrow followed by the CoT. Some douchebag on a message board means nothing to me.
Turd said :-
.
I just KNEW it would be all his fault [wink] ..... Rssss'n, Frssss'n [muttley chuckle]
.
Question :- Turd, where were you at $49 ? .... Now get yer' arse back there instead, you troublemaker.
The battle for 30 is on.
@Maradona-oil/gold
No, I have not - its just a good silver prediction chart that makes me pick and narrow topics. One would think that if inflation is on the horizon, oil/gasoline will also be stacked, both at homes ( gasoline, heating oil) and by various bigger entities that can stack physical oil, and oil will shoot up as well as inflation hedge. But how fast I have no idea- I have been wrong on my previous attempt to predict short term oil prices-they went up faster and did not dip , and have not found any better approach so far. Whole last year I actually expected recession in the USA in Q1 2012 -but easing dragged it out much longer- so may be we will see a recession only in Q4 2012 now.
Just wanted to say I love
Just wanted to say I love this site. I don't post that much but I do a fair amount of reading.
Thank you mr Turd for your work. I will be feeding you shortly!
I'm going to repost a couple of my old comments
The two theses are still battling it out. Do not be surprised or discouraged by a massive drop in the paper price of silver.
I am wondering if my theory
I am wondering if my theory of extreme volatility with a downward bias is taking effect here. There doesn't seem to be a reason for this smashdown, though I have been sleep-deprived for a while, and might have just missed it.
For those who missed it, I will repost my thesis:
The metals markets, and specifically silver, are very strongly manipulated. People are waking up to this fact, but slowly. As they wake up to that fact, they will stop trading on the COMEX. The result of that will be lower OI in the small specs, and as a result, we are likely to see greatly increased volatility as those who don't yet understand that the market is manipulated "fight" against the EE, which now greatly outnumbers them. The final effect of this is that silver will get smashed, lower and lower, to zero. It will reach zero the same day that the last small spec finally realizes what is going on, gets tired of being stolen from, and packs up his things and goes home.
In the mean time, physical markets will decouple. This will happen according to the willingness of silver retailers to set their own prices. This is a function of true supply and demand. As of now, it seems as though the market is being supplied with silver by the EE and those who still trust in their price. The likely mechanism for this is the off-market deals that are now being reported between silver producers and silver users. These are likely being priced using spot as a basis. This is VERY good for us stackers, because it means we can still get physical silver for close to spot. But this model is unsustainable.
There are two potential methods that I can see for a breakdown of the current system. The first has been discussed here in detail, the new PAGE substitute exchange. Such and exchange will bring many of the off market transactions onto the market, and will lead to an orderly transition to price discovery. This is BAD for physical silver holders (I will explain why later).
The second method will take longer, and that is the complete and total draw-down of all non-speculative above ground silver stocks. This will result in the industrial panic I have spoken about so often. With no more access to the silver surplus that was built up over the last 4000 years, there will be a sudden phase transition to the system that existed BEFORE the discovery of methods to extract silver from electrum by the Greeks. That is, silver will be more valuable than gold. As in Ancient Egypt, which existed under a regime where silver was 4 times as valuable as gold (a ratio determined by the abundance of native silver deposits versus native gold deposits). This was the case since pre-history until the Greeks learned how to produce it in accordance with the total relative abundance. Currently, silver is produced in excess of gold at a ration of 7 ounces silver per ounce of gold. Even if industrial usage were to stop tomorrow, you can see that silver priced in gold must rise a great deal. Take into account the fact that for the above ground stock of silver would need some ten years to equal the above ground stock of gold (weight:weight ratio, mind you), again in the total absence of industrial consumption. But of course, industry stops for no man. And that is why silver, in this case, could easily become the most valuable substance on the face of the Earth, perhaps by a wide margin, for at least a short time (as a blow off top, as industries that need the metal to survive spend all of their money and credit to secure it, find alternatives, or go bankrupt).
After reading that, it is easy to see why an orderly transition to a new exchange is bad for the holders of physical silver. Though the transition would result in a steady rise in silver prices, or perhaps even a sharp one, it would be driven by speculation, and restrained by the small amount of remaining above ground stocks. The slow rise will allow enough time for silver production to be increased, such that silver may not even reach parity with gold.
Certainly, in either case, the owners of silver will be rich. The difference is between advancing one social class, and all but the smallest hoarders skipping straight to the top.
@Big L
Currently, paper silver is being delivered en masse to those who stand for delivery, likely with a big cash premium.
MF Global, in my opinion, was meant to stop people from trying to scalp cash from the EE.
As a result, I have shifted more towards the second thesis I presented, where paper silver goes sideways and simply becomes moot once those who deal in physical finally start setting their own prices according to supply and demand.
We are in a transition period between the two theses. I don't know which one will win out. In the end, it doesn't matter, as in both cases the logical conclusion is the same--buy physical and wait until the masses realize what is going on, or until the silver just plain runs out.
I'm thinking that maintenance of a fake market may be even more bullish than the other scenario at this point, simply because of the depletion of silver it causes.
My goal is to trade silver for gold, which is pure money, where silver is money but also a commodity to be used up.
_____
The point is--DON'T PANIC.
*sale* on PM's
I was wondering about the increase in PM_dealers' emails, too. also, Why are they having "sales", and reducing premiums, if there is a shortage? My local LCS tells me it's all hype; I am just outside Philly - he says there is no shortage. thanks for anyone who can explain this.
And one more thing
Give it a little time. Let the new silver exchange open this summer and then let's see where silver is priced. It won't be $30, I'm convinced of that.
Btw, all is on track and on schedule for that exchange. I can't tell you more than that now but I know that Andy and Ned are both very excited. Just be patient.
Ask him to explain
Ask him to explain backwardation to you.
what is up with this mess .....
I just don't understand why the prices have been smacked down so hard ....
US gov't debt problem hasn't been resolved (actually gotten worse)
Euroland same issue
Aren't squat for jobs around (decent jobs)
Economy is still sluggish as can be...
Everything is screaming a fiat currency crisis ....
So why the f**k is gold at 1636 and silver is at 30.10 ....$hit just doesn't make any sense at all.
Mr Comiskey
Some questions that I hope
Some questions that I hope everybody has thought about:
1. When will you sell your gold and silver?
2. What will be the sign that you should sell?
3. What will you purchase?
4. Are you so one-sided in your beliefs that you may end up riding the bull to the top and all the way down to the bottom?
5. If gold and silver serve to protect your purchasing power but do NOT make you wealthy, will you feel like you have failed?
I've been thinking about these things lately. I've come to the conclusion that most of the guys on KWN are full of it. They are so arrogant that they can't even address or apologize for their errant price prediction calls. In my mind Turd does NOT fall into this camp. His premise has never been $500 silver. His premise has always been protect yourself and your family. I like that.
I hope those with $40 silver don't get depressed when we see $25. Turd is convinced we won't see that but the charts tell me we could. Maybe we won't. Maybe we will. I think $25 is more likely than $40 near term.
My position is long physical metals to protect my family. I'm not convinced that they will make me wealthy in any way. But I do think they will help maintain purchasing power against current inflation and the coming hyperinflation. I also know that all bull markets end.
Disclosure: bought physical again today.
The sky is falling
Jeez-Louise, the amount of angst and doubt when silver gets whacked is amazing. Human nature, I guess.
Please by all means, dump your physical in exchange for dollars. Put your dollars into a CD or some other worthless, "traditional" investment. I'm sure that all will be well. Europe is perfectly fine. America is solvent. The banks are all liquid and flush. All debts, public and private will be re-payed in full, in today's dollars. Bliss. Nirvana. Eutopia. All right around the corner.
Once again I must ask you...why the fuck did you buy precious metal in the first place? If the answer is "protection" or "insurance", then why the fuck do you care that a couple of HFT algos and Cartel monkeys drove paper price down 60c today???
I will not be deterred and I will not be swayed by some ankle-biter in a chat room or anyone else for that matter. I know what's right and I know what's coming. If you choose to bury your head and doubt yourself, fine. Go for it. But try not to poison everyone else around here with your pussy-footed, doubt-filled nonsense.
That's it. I'm out. Time to walk away for awhile. See you post BLSBS.