Quick Update

Thursday, May 3, 2012 at 10:28 am

Here comes a stream of consciousness. Probably not a good idea but here goes.

I think this is all a big setup. However, this time, it's an opposite setup to what we're used to.

The action this week seems to be a coordinated effort to suck in and trap as many spec shorts as possible ahead of tomorrow.

Every headline this week that could possibly be used to raid the gold market has been utilized.

Today is the latest example but note that the dollar was declining and silver was flat.

The decline after the claims number was released was on less than 2000 contracts. The Cartel pulled their bids and allowed the WOPRs to quickly drop price through some sell stops at 1640. This process has continued to this moment as gold has now made a low near 1635.

This final drop was worked in around the London PM fix and now gold will likely trade sideways to higher the rest of the day as WOPR positions are squared before the close.

The stage is now set for a massive short squeeze tomorrow. Look, I have no idea what the BLSBS will be. How could I know? Maybe we'll get 7.9%, 250,000 jobs and $100 down in gold. I have no idea. What I do know, however, is this: Today reeks of a final suck-in of shorts ahead of the number. Does The Cartel know what the number will be? Maybe. I can tell you this: The likelihood of them knowing ahead of time is infinitely higher than the likelihood of me knowing.

With so many weak handed longs stopped out this week, there are really none left. And now, all of the weak hands are on the short side. They look ripe to be squeezed. 

A spike tomorrow, post the BLSBS, looks likely. Just as how The EE allowed the final silver spec longs to be drawn in on Feb 28 ahead of The Leap Day Beatdown, The Gold Cartel has allowed the final gold spec shorts to be drawn in today.

A spike tomorrow will cause extreme pressure on the gold shorts. A move back toward 1660 and beyond will cause them to cover. London is closed on Monday. This may cause additional shorts to cover. Would you want to be short over the weekend if NFP comes in at under 100,000?

Our pal Andy just sent me an email informing me that Shanghai silver traded with a premium to futures of $1.26 overnight! $1.26!. There is serious to extreme physical demand near $30 for silver. The paper market for silver is a joke and is being made obsolete. Anyone short silver is playing with fire.

Andy also told me of huge sovereign and central bank orders for physical at 1635 and 1625, though we were both surprised at the willingness to fill the orders at 1645. Every time The Cartel takes paper gold down, they lose more physical metal out the back door. This cannot continue much longer. It simply cannot.

Uncle Ted kicks ass. Here's an excerpt from his latest:

"In silver, the price action has been so poor that every day the phrase “the beatings will continue until morale improves” plays in my mind. Taken with everything discussed above, I’m left with the impression that the commercials are deliberately making silver look so bad in order to extract every last drop of blood from the speculative selling stone. At least the beatings are keeping the price below the moving averages, so this week’s reports should indicate a further reduction in the total net commercial short position in silver. Given the motive behind the poor silver price action, my guess is that JPM has reduced its concentrated short position by a bunch.
 I’m sensing that JPMorgan is now down to 14,000 contracts net short in COMEX silver futures. That’s down from the 16,000 contracts at the last COT cut-off and down a whopping 5,000 contracts from the 19,000 contracts JPM was short in the last Bank Participation Report, as of April 3. There has been a noticeable determination on JPMorgan’s part to get its silver short position down. Clearly, if there is intent behind the rotten price action, it is for JPMorgan to buy back as many of its silver shorts as possible.  I’d rather the whole thing blow up in their crooked faces, but the next best thing is for them to cover as they have done."
God bless Uncle Ted.
 
I still can't post charts. Everybody else can but not me. Seriously. But The Tech Team is working on it so I hope to be able to post them again later today.
 
I know you're sick of hearing me say this but the key word is "PATIENCE". Silver isn't going to $20. It's not going to $25, either. The domination and manipulation of silver by The Evil Empire is ending, whether they want to admit it or not. 
 
That said, only experienced traders with money to lose should be playing in the actual casino. The manipulation can surely outlast your trading account and, absent a clear trend higher, traders will be whipsawed to death. Join the central banks, large institutions and wealthy individuals worldwide. Buy physical metal and take delivery. Hold it in your own vault or safe. To paraphrase WOPR: "A strange game. The only winning move is to take delivery."
 
Keep the faith. TF
 
 

Comments

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

Nothing to see here...

Submitted by DrkPurpleHaze on May 3, 2012 - 11:41am.

Russia 'retains right' to pre-emptive strike on US-backed missile system in Europe

File photo of the Russian short-range missile Iskandar

File photo of the Russian short-range missile Iskandar
 
Thu May 3, 2012 2:1PM
 
A top Russian military official says Moscow retains the right to a preemptive strike on the US-led missile system in Europe if Washington refuses to engage in constructive dialog over the issue.
 
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/239385.html
Exbroker's picture

Same shit as a above.

Submitted by Exbroker on May 3, 2012 - 11:41am.

When I wanted to accumulate for customer accounts, I would wait for weakness and pick away at the price slowly so as not to draw any attention. The boylovers at the fed will eventually see every trade, but by then fundamentals will make anything they say not worth a wet fart in Timmy's ass. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes, but its not me

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 3, 2012 - 11:41am.
MODERATOR

It's the physical orders at 1635 that are keeping gold from falling any farther.

Look, I may be dead wrong and a laughingstock by tomorrowat this time (wouldn't be the first time) but my gut tells me that this is a massive setup. 

Remember The Golden Rule: You only make consistent money buy selling when everyone is buying and buying when everyone is selling.

Response to: Now back over 1635
Dr G's picture

I'm ready for a move higher!

Submitted by Dr G on May 3, 2012 - 11:44am.

I'm ready for a move higher! Thanks for the update. Picked up a nice roll of Moose this morning (I really love that coin!).

Also took advantage of Provident's Libertad sale.

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

GATA

Submitted by BUDDHA PRINCESS on May 3, 2012 - 11:44am.

Earth's Resources Conference in Hong Kong to hear about gold market manipulation

GATA's secretary/treasurer Chris Powell will join renowned mining entrepreneurs Robert Friedland, Rob McEwen, and Bob Quartermain among the speakers at Standard Chartered's Earth's Resources Conference in Hong Kong on Wednesday and Thursday, June 20 and 21.

The conference will be held at the luxurious J.W. Marriott Hotel at Pacific Place in the glamorous Wan Chai section of Hong Kong, and the conference has arranged a special discounted room rate for attendees staying at the hotel.

At this conference Chris plans to bring gold market manipulation to the attention of a huge and influential Asian audience, and thus to hasten the manipulation's end.

More information about this event, go to this link here.

Urban Roman's picture

But don't misunderestimate

Submitted by Urban Roman on May 3, 2012 - 11:44am.

... the power of POSX to take off.

It is still seen, in many corners, as a 'safe haven'. Preferable to Euro or Yen. It could spike if Europe crashes, resulting in, not really a collapse, but a dip in metal prices.

The 'dry powder' we speak of in this here forum, for example...

Apathetic or Whatever's picture

Just bought a monster box to

Submitted by Apathetic or Wh... on May 3, 2012 - 11:46am.

Just bought a monster box to celebrated the sell off. 

Exbroker's picture

Have some bad news for you

Submitted by Exbroker on May 3, 2012 - 11:49am.

Israel will strike first. You can take that to the Bank. 

Bobbejaan's picture

@Turd

Submitted by Bobbejaan on May 3, 2012 - 11:55am.

Quote:
TITS broke 70 this morning. A new, alltime low of 69.46

Oh Dear .... The TITS are doing a Soixante-Neuf ... That's very suggestive.

Xty's picture

Urban Roman

Submitted by Xty on May 3, 2012 - 11:56am.

It seems to me that if people are trying to get rid of their Euros, because I assume Europe crashing involves the Euro being propped up by central bank printing, so they seek the safe haven of the US dollar, they will also seek gold, which will get very expensive in Euro's that nobody wants.

Just like the Zimbabwean dollar, the Euro will fall victim to central bank 'freshly printed money', and people will seek a sound currency.

RTMoney's picture

Speaking of "spot" Markets

Submitted by RTMoney on May 3, 2012 - 11:59am.

For the last couple months I have been able to buy silver on the bay below spot including shipping with a little creative searching and timing.  First I was picking up US coin silver, then all of a sudden I couldn't find any under spot.  I stumbled upon some scrap/wearable jewelry below what I could send it to a refiner and get back, and started buying it that way, then a week or two ago that dried up too.  I haven't changed the time spent or searches and in the last 7 days the only silver I purchased was a really mixed up foreign coin lot that the seller didn't catalog in the description.  I don't know if the low price has people holding on to their precious or if the people selling are just out but the supply seems to have tightened in that market place.  I also attend estate auctions, I was able to pick high grade numismatic gold and silver up at rates right around spot, and way lower than what I could purchase anywhere else the first part of the year.  This last month, I haven't made a single metal purchase at that venue.  Last week, I watched a mixed lot of VG common date Morgans go for more than $37 a piece, VG Peace dollars go for $36 a piece, Krugerrands go for $1880, and a common date AG $20 Liberty go for $2250 after the fees and taxes.  I couldn't believe it...

Xty's picture

Pining

Submitted by Xty on May 3, 2012 - 12:02pm.

You are the best.

Word

(as my 17 year-old says)

opticsguy's picture

Amazon LOL

Submitted by opticsguy on May 3, 2012 - 12:05pm.

In exchange for a few hundred minimum-wage jobs, TX will allow Amazon to collect sales taxes on sales within TX.  Even though this is supposed to start July 1, many sellers that go through Amazon are trying to collect sales tax now.

Earlier this week I tried to make such a purchase, and the vendor called me and asked for more money.  I canceled the order and found a non-Amazon out-of-state retailer that was tax-free and cheaper shipping.

Amazon just did to themselves what they did to BestBuy and CircuitCity.  Browse for what you want on Amazon, then buy from someone else.

York Rite's picture

HUI and XAU and the difference between huge and massive

Submitted by York Rite on May 3, 2012 - 12:05pm.
The XAU hit another brand new year-to-date and 52-week low earlier and the HUI is an inch away from doing similar.
 
I've noticed that Maguire and the London Trader are always quoted using the the same words with regard to physical orders at certain price points. Maguire prefers huge while the other fella always uses massive. 
 
Which is bigger, and are they ever quantified by tonnage? How much did the boys give up at $1,645 and at $1,635 today?
Dr G's picture

You cannot make this

Submitted by Dr G on May 3, 2012 - 12:06pm.

You cannot make this up.

CNN.com interview with Krugman in which he states that what the US has been doing with economic policies is not stimulus but austerity.

He thinks QE and twist are austerity. Quick, give him another Nobel prize.

What a douche.

Turd Ferguson's picture

$1.3T in new debt per year is austerity?

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 3, 2012 - 12:09pm.
MODERATOR

No one is that stupid.

He is intentionally trying to mislead. Why?

ClinkinKY's picture

@ Dr G

Submitted by ClinkinKY on May 3, 2012 - 12:09pm.

Hell, "Nobels for everybody... put it on my tab".

Orange's picture

Jim Sinclair

Submitted by Orange on May 3, 2012 - 12:11pm.
http://soundofcannons.blogspot.com/2012/05/jim-sinclair-has-something-to-say.html
 
FM: Will it be replaced as a global reserve currency?
JS: [It is] a global reserve currency by default. If the dollar was a global reserve currency by choice, international purchasing of U.S. Treasury instruments [would] be rising, not falling. All these headwinds against the dollar do not change it as a reserve currency but take it from a reserve currency of choice to a reserve currency by default. We are going to break down into three trading blocs: the yuan bloc, the euro block and the U.S. bloc. You already can see that by the Swiss having attached their currency to the euro instead of the dollar. That is the beginning of a currency bloc.

FM: You also mentioned the Brics having a bloc.
JS: The Brics [met on March 29] in India. According to the release on the meeting [they were] to discuss their own bank of an IMF type and also look toward increased settlement in contracts in their own currencies. Now the dollar will remain a major settlement currency, but the question of value deals with momentum of utilization, not with political opinions.

indosil's picture

French Effect

Submitted by indosil on May 3, 2012 - 12:15pm.

Dear Turd,

          will the French elections have any short term effect on the price of the metals??I mean Hollande threatens to derail the Euro Bailouts...hmm..i find it hard to believe..but what if he does???

silverstax's picture

Krugman

Submitted by silverstax on May 3, 2012 - 12:17pm.

Good news Dr. G - Krugman says the fix for all of our woes is quite simple - we just need more stimulus:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/national-affairs/paul-krugman...

After all, we all know that if they simply print more money and hand it out to corporations and governments, that money will trickle down to the people in the form of more hiring.

Krugman just wrote a new book about this too - we are lucky to have such intelligent people advising us!

What an absolute joke....

agNau's picture

@what impact.....

Submitted by agNau on May 3, 2012 - 12:17pm.

Speeding up the new exchanges #China/East.......
Speeding the demise of the CME.....
We can only hope.
NEXT RULE:
ALL futures based trading of US companies(US tax reporting) MUST be done through the CME, and ALL funds both entering and exiting those trades, MUST clear through the FEDERAL RESERVE.
:o !!!!!!!

Abraxas's picture

Never mind

Submitted by Abraxas on May 3, 2012 - 12:23pm.

Never mind

Groaner's picture

Here is Norcinis reason for the metals getting killed today

Submitted by Groaner on May 3, 2012 - 12:23pm.

http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/05/draghi-derails-gold.html

Could be.. 

Dr G's picture

Direct quote from the CNN

Submitted by Dr G on May 3, 2012 - 12:25pm.

Direct quotes from the CNN interview: "It's a funny thing, what we've actually done is not stimulus, but austerity".

and

"The heart of it is that we really need to reverse this misguided austerity of the past couple of years".

He believes that because the private sector isn't spending, it's up to the public sector to make up that difference. He says we don't need stimulus but we need to reverse the spending cuts that have taken place at the state/local levels...and that this will require spending from the government. Isn't that STIMULUS!?!

Linky: http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/03/news/economy/jobless-claims/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

The interview video will pop up towards the end of the article. Everybody should take 5 minutes and watch it to see just how twisted his logic is.

The system it doomed to fail with men like him at the helm. $1.3 trillion is now austerity. Holy $hit. People read him in the NY Times and believe him because he's smart!

California Lawyer's picture

Turd: Easy, Softball Question

Submitted by California Lawyer on May 3, 2012 - 12:31pm.

Question: Why is Krugman saying $1.3T in new debt per year is austerity?

Answer: Because defining Keynesian money printing as "austerity" then allows central bankers to continue doing what they have been doing.

MOPE, simple as that.

LONER's picture

SIGHHHH!

Submitted by LONER on May 3, 2012 - 12:33pm.

Greetings from the great white north.

  I know, I knooow that probably sounds pompous but how else do I start?---"My peas are up"?

  Any way been sittin back watching since my last post months ago( with people like XTY, CAL and other great people posting here I really feel inadequate whenever I get the urge to say something-so I mostly don't.

  I'm a stacker only so anything I say is from that mindset(man, you traders are the gutsiest people I've met in years. You have my utmost respect and admiration!--and for the past year--my sympathy. :)

  Personally I don't care what happens in the PM markets. I read everyone and everything with regards to what is happening world wide. History does repeat over and over again. I think the greatest hint I picked up over the past couple of years is that history takes time to repeat. We have been conditioned to lack patience-hence the anguish we are seeing on the site more and more this year.

  Remember I am speaking as a stacker. I believe I should stack regularly. If silver crashes I can buy more, if it moves sideways I still buy and if it climbs I buy less each time, but I buy. Might take another year, five years or more than a decade-but, eventually that stack will be a lifesaver.

  Turd makes sense to me most of the time-the trolls here don't, but their fun to watch. I like what Turd said today and decided to get some more from good old Silver Gold Bull for a price I haven't seen in a while. If prices crash tomorrow- so what? I'm not trading-not going to stop me.

  So guys, please chill some OK? Just to put my money where my mouth is, I also donated to the Turd today, not for the first or last time.

  Semper Fi

Lumpy's picture

Patience.....

Submitted by Lumpy on May 3, 2012 - 12:34pm.

thumbnail.aspx?q=4664219056079276&id=b0c

The EE is patiently waiting.

The Silver market they are baiting . 

Let it run. Let it run.

And rob us blind just for fun.

Bobbejaan's picture

RE:- $1.3T in new debt per year is austerity?

Submitted by Bobbejaan on May 3, 2012 - 12:35pm.

Quote:
Turd said :-

$1.3T in new debt per year is austerity?
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 3, 2012 - 5:09pm.

No one is that stupid.

He is intentionally trying to mislead. Why?

Because in Orwellian Double-Speak .... When your masters really wanted $2T of New Debt, then a mere $1.3T **IS** "Austerity"

Bleedin' obvious, ain't it, guv'nor.  ..... Nudge, nudge, wink, wink. ... Say no more, squire.

Groaner's picture

don't look now but silver is edging real close to $30

Submitted by Groaner on May 3, 2012 - 12:35pm.

will it hold? 

sevin's picture

here comes the breach of $30

Submitted by sevin on May 3, 2012 - 12:37pm.

This could be the 29 handle right here.

As long as TITS closes above 69.69 we should be ok. If not look out below

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