Mid-Week Gold & Silver Charts
As we barrel toward another fun-filled BLSBS Friday, I thought it was time to contemplate where we've been, where we are and where we're going.
Perhaps you've noticed a clear pattern this week of price suppression.
- The obvious manipulative event of Monday where JPM dumped 7500 contracts onto the Comex. This blatant and overt attempt to drive price lower was later written off as a trading error. "Oops. I fat-fingered and entered 7500 instead of 750. My bad." This trimmed $15 from gold just as it was threatening a move to 1680 and, more importantly, made a Comex close over $1672 extremely unlikely. Why was $1672 so important? It would have turned the month of April green on the chart and helped further set the stage for a rally in May.
- The less obvious but equally painful hammering of yesterday. After gold had rallied back from Monday's BS and was threatening, once again, to make a run at 1680, gold was struck for another $15 after the first release of a semi-positive economic number in weeks. Gold then struggled all day while stocks and crude oil surged.
- Today, gold rallied after the ADP employment survey came in weaker than expected. ADP is often considered somewhat of a precursor for the BLSBS and gold surged back over $1660. What happened next? To the surprise of no one, gold promptly fell another $15.
Does anyone see a pattern here?
But, of course, it is what it is. If you're going to trade/stack gold and silver, you're likely used to this by now. The primary question is: Why? Why three, successive manipulation days on the Monday-Wednesday ahead of BLSBS day? To engineer a lower price ahead of the number? I'll guess we'll know soon enough.
Another question of importance is: How? How is The Cartel still so successful at pulling off these raids? It's simple, actually. They're the only ones left in the pit. Well, them and some robots. Volume is so light and trading is so thin that the primary action in paper metal right now is Cartel manipulation surrounded by HFT WOPRs trolling for stops to game. When there's no depth or "muscle" on the bid side of the trade, it makes The Cartel's job that much easier. I'm not saying that we're going to be stuck here forever, mind you. However, I am saying that patience is going to continue to be required from those trading paper, hoping for another big, sustained move to the upside.
That said, there is some reason for hope. Over the past week, the total open interest in gold appears to have bottomed...at least for now. It banged around for a few days under 400,000 but has since turned and is now comfortably back above 410,000. This interest and willingness to play in the casino is vital for liquidity and liquidity must return for paper gold to surge higher again. Let's watch to see if OI continues to expand in the coming days. IF the BLSBS is metal bullish on Friday, let's look for an accompanying surge in OI as confirmation of trend change.
Lastly and along those lines, this week's CoT promises to be very interesting. For the reporting week, gold rose in price by nearly $20 and total OI rose by nearly 16,000 contracts or over 4%. How that rise in OI is dispersed among market participants will go a long way toward helping determine whether liquidity is returning. In silver, a different picture emerges. For the week, silver was essentially unchanged in price yet total OI fell by 11,500 contracts or 10%! Who was buying and who was selling? How did the net ratios of the specs and the EE change within this 10% drop? Again, the answers will be very interesting.
Here are your charts. Ahead of the BLSBS, I expect tomorrow to be a choppy, rangebound day with most traders unwilling to make a commitment either way. We'll be left with the same nonsense as today where WOPRs bang around, trolling for stops. $1645-50 should continue to provide support in paper gold as there continues to be buying support in physical metal at those levels.
Silver tried to rally and break out above $31.40 after bouncing off of $30 late last week. No such luck. It seems to have pretty solid buying support between $30 and $30.50. Let's hope for a continuance of support at that level as we head toward Friday.
<Having trouble adding charts. Keep checking back. Thank you for your patience.>
TF
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Comments
kn33bar
Thanks for sharing that, appreciate it
Silver Eagles
2012 ASE's on sale on Providentmetals.com for $2.25 over spot any quantity. FYI.
Oh no, what have I done
I only teased Her Royal Majesty. I did not mean to be a party to maligning the good chicks of England. I am so tempted to post some to rectify my error, but the mods would delete them and treat me like a lech. I'm used to the second part, but ...
I'm just a sports fan...and animation makes it ok, right?
I will gladly pay a couple
I will gladly pay a couple extra FRN for a buffalo so I don't have an old bag to look at.
Allright
I have to ask, is it the Buffalo or the Indian that does it for you?
I really like the Philharmonic because it has neither ugly Queen nor ugly Indian. Though that Uncle Paul Kruger guy WAS a handsome man. Decisions, decisions...
Oasis of Common Sense
Turd - thanks for what you do. God love this site. It is a sea of common sense in a world of total lunacy.
The manipulation is becoming oh so blatant. Every - and I mean every - upward thrust in price is met by an automated BOT that unwinds the upthrust. I am a patient person. But, this is really getting ridiculous. The manipulative desperation is all too evident. There is barely a whit of normal market reaction left. Well - it can go to ZERO. ZERO and I will not unload my stack. (But I will add to it). Long and strong REAL physical MONEY!
And lets call the manipulation what it really is - It's theft. Theft of the hard earned money from folks that have spent time and human capital investing and trying to honestly protecting their futures. It's no different than armed robbery IMO. The system is mortally broken - the concept of a level playing field is gone - vamoose. Gone. It's amazing where we now are - 10 years ago, I would never have believed we would get to this point. Never. Sad.
Rest assured folks - the natural laws of economic reality WILL prevail. OH YES, THEY MOST CERTAINLY, WILL. History has proven this many many times and a multitude of generations before us, have learned this fact. Sadly, we have forgotten or chosen to ignore it.
English Chicks?????
RE; may be ugly but they sure are fun.
Don't throw them all under the double-decker!
SING:- Where has all the money gone? ... Long time passing
.
In a brazen criminal scheme to defraud taxpayers, one of the highest-ranking officials in the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency pleaded guilty Tuesday in federal court to helping embezzle $600,000 from the federal government.
Over three years, James Woosley and at least five other ICE employees scammed the agency by fabricating expenses for trips that were never taken and for hotel, rental car and restaurant expenses that did not exist, according to court records.
His son and Woosley's live-in girlfriend, Lateisha Rollerson -- both ICE employees -- allegedly ran the scam out of the elder Woosley's two Virginia homes.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/05/01/top-ice-figure-expected-to-pl...
On Flying Monkeys and Glass Ceilings
Blythe and the monkeys have held their latest line in the sand for it seems like forever. The TITS is sagging. Are the doldrums upon us for the summer and fall?
Or did the latest one percent price smash down change things? It at least got some publicity and an action from the exchange (albeit a ten second halt). Exemptions from reporting were given until May. Any definition of swaps? Crickets.
If you got into this game exactly a year ago you have had a brutal time of it. Even us old hands have had a significant percentage hit this past year.
Optimistic that when the ceiling shatters the thing to fly will be the price of the physical.
Z
This Tiger likes English chicks...
Mexican Libertads for $1.49 over spot at providentmetals.com
I just noticed that providentmetals.com has one ounce Mexican Libertads (dates of their choice) on sale for $1.49 over spot in any quantity (no minimums) for 48 hours or less. I first thought that Gainesvillecoins.com had a great deal when I saw that they had the Libertads for $1.75 over spot, but checked Provident and they had an even better deal. Gainesville also has one ounce Austrian Philharmonics for $1.95 over spot.
I prefer to deal with Provident because they will let you mail them a check or ACH them the money and receive the lower "cash" price (non- credit card price) that you receive when you wire funds. Gainesville requires either a wire (which costs me $15 plus a trip to my bank, which is a hassle) or a credit card price which is about 3% higher than the cash price. Provident will also let you pay by credit card, but it does cost about 3% more than a cash payment.
These seem like really low premiums. Remember, it is not yours unless you own it and actually POSSESS it.......so buy it and take physical control of it. Keep stacking.......
http://www.providentmetals.com/1-oz-mexico-silver-libertad-coin-brillian...
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Inverse Head & Shoulders: the new shampoo made with silver.
Pensions
Please bear with me while I drift back to some comments from the previous thread. When the issue of pensions and "retiring early" came into the conversion, the comments were decidedly negative. Perhaps the assumption was that anyone deciding to retire and collect a pension must be an evil government or union employee. Believe it or not, there were (are) still companies out there that have a pension as part of their compensation package that are non-union and/or non-government.
The company I worked for, for over 30 years, is a Dow 30 company. Products I developed, or contributed to the profitability thereof thru process improvements, contributed hundreds of millions of FRNs to the bottom line of that company. In a 10 year period, 7 team projects I led or participated on had first year savings of over $30 million alone. There were months of 50-60, even 70 hour weeks when dozens to hundreds of people were depending on a major manufacturing SNAFU getting fixed as quickly as possible. I definitely felt that a pension sometime in my future was part of my compensation package.
When the opportunity came at 55, I was in a position to rework the department organization chart and eliminate my job. That was key to adding a separation package to my exit. A big part of my motivation was to have time with my kids before they all disappeared. Work and 2 hours of windshield time tended to eat the weeks, months and years. It also allowed my wife to get back her career. A child with a serious disability played havoc with that a dozen years earlier. It was time for me to take over. The pension was significantly less than my income at the time, but it made things workable. Along with a part-time job wrapped around my child's schedule, a pension allowed us to keep the wheels on the wagon and even have some FRNs to swap for PMs.
My point in this little tale is that it might be best to avoid being judgmental since it it impossible to know the situation and motivation behind an individual's choice to "retire early" or to "enjoy" a pension. Who are any of you to decide that such a choice merits contempt? Not sure exactly why the word "pension" evokes such negative emotion? Perhaps someone can help me understand.
Its the Buffalo that does it
Its the Buffalo that does it for me. I always thought the nickel was beautiful, and I love the one they redid (2005). I'm just partial, and being an American I prefer to buy american bullion, and the buffalo is a true American symbol. Thats my $50 on it anyways.
More reasons to stay away from Miners
I think Ranting Andy is correct.
The risk to reward ratio is too high.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/indonesia-plans-upto-50-export-tax-on-copper-gold-silver-ores-47822-3-47823.html
@bartertown...
Yes, I would...'nuff said
DaddyO
I believe that coin is a
I believe that coin is a fake , It should read Elizabeth 100 years
For Pete's sake she was a little kid during the revolution !
Although I have to say , Her image matches those cave paintings really well.
Running...........................Dives behind desk for cover
Zoltan
I did get into it about a year ago :/ If I sold today I would have less fiat than when I bought because of the silver, gold has been a slight rise. Ah well No regrets though. Would rather have held the gold and slept well than had the worry for a few more ounces if I bought now.
Since Turds charts aren't here yet I did my own technical analysis using netdania. We are still in the falling penant's on gold and silver on the weekly charts. If we don't break out before, they seem to close in July by my estimations. By then the inverse head and shoulders will be looking sweet as. Basically I won't be surprised if we remain flatish for another month easily.
CoT
The reason gold rose in price is because it's CoT index turned while index was rising and gold was declining. The reason it hasn't rose by that much is because it didn't decline by that much while index was rising.
Silver's index has not turned yet, and it will not rise until that happens. If you're planning on making long term investment (not day trading) just wait for the index to turn. If they control the price and they will tell you when it's going to rise, why would you not listen?
Gold CoT Chart, black line is index and it turned last week.
http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Gold/media/d5fbe6c8-9b82-46c7-bf82-56609b9c9f42
Silver CoT Chart, black line is index, it has not turned yet, when it does Turd should throw a party for all of us.
http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/19406400-be18-4518-83e7-14d5c50a1bb3
How to break the EE
Remember the old adage about "How do you eat an elephant?" Obviously, one bite at a time. So how do you get PM prices stable and rising? - How about one ounce at a time. This audience, or at least those who are most vocal, seem to like to complain about prices not skyrocketing, that they are being manipulated, and the like. No one seems to want to admit that their stack is undersized though. Well, take the product out of the hands of the manipulators and put it under your mattress - then you can be the manipulator for a while and enjoy a growing stack at the same time. Personally, I am unable to effect this for my own account due to limited means, but I try to do my little part by making a small purchase at every opportunity. Since all men know that size does matter, I've often felt inferior due to the "short" stack that life dealt to me, but so long a prices remain relatively low as they are now, I've been able to add a few centimeters to that stack every few weeks. So long as prices remain where they are, I should be able to have a full, man sized stack in due course.
Now, if everyone wanted to develop a larger stack, this is the opportunity. I don't know how long we'll be in this rut, and it wasn't that long ago that the price for silver was below $15, but what I do know is if everyone who needs a larger stack were in there making the effort to enhance themselves, the price will eventually rise. Let's face it men, you can't always leave it up to the women to ensure a rising stack - sometimes you just have to take matters into your own hand. After all, who wants an undersized stack.
waxy
retireyoung is not a new face - he has had his say in the past - your story is very different, as is your attitude and understanding. Sorry if I seem jumpy, but dis-information is real, and it is at an all time high. If we accept this, should I just sit back when I see something I think is wrong? Should we think no one has ill will who comes to this site? Why did Turd feel compelled to write the last thread?
I wasn't attacking pensions - it is retireyoung's attempt to convince people they are wrong to invest in physical metals that offends me.
Qlimax ~ Headhunterz ~ Full HD/ Bluray
Need a little energy and some eye candy?
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/frivolity-forum
Hey Im thinking its about
Hey Im thinking its about time For Queen Elizabeth to get her head and shoulders off the coinage already .
Yeah...
...and replace her with that other hot British chick, Kate!
AHHHHH there YA go!!! You
AHHHHH there YA go!!! You had your day Liz , come on share the sunlight !!!
Not for nothing, But I dont
Not for nothing, But I dont want to see any Maples with a an old lady in bed with an IV.
Although I wont be around to see it.
Look at the trading tonight
lots of little smack downs.. more than usual, not good
reportable coins
According to most coin shops, 1099-B, reportable coins:
Silver: 1 oz. rounds including Buffalo and bars
Gold: Maple Leaf, Krugerrand, Mexican Onzas, bars
Exempt from 1099, non-reportable:
Silver: Liberty, Maple Leaf, Philharmonic
Gold: Liberty, Buffalo, Philharmonic
Sale of over 25 oz. all reportable? Check before you purchase, can make a difference in the future...