GDP Lower Than Expected? NO!!! Really?

In a stunning development, Q1 GDP in the U.S. came in under expectations at 2.2%. Since this number has undoubtedly been "massaged", one must wonder just how bad things really are.

Conveniently, the ensuing pop in gold surged price through the nasty 1660 level. We are now having a bit of trouble with 1665 again as there seems to be an effort afoot to keep it below there. (Interestingly, most Turdites will recall that 1665 is the gap-level open from back on 8/7/11, after the S&P downgrade of the U.S.) Regardless, moving through and closing above 1660 today will be a very important first step for our nascent recovery. The next hurdle (for next week?) is 1680.

paper_4-27amgoldh.jpg

Silver continues in a trade centered around the support/resistance area of 31.25. Closing above there, particularly closing above 31.35, would set the table for a run at $32 next week. Once that level is bested, we will be ready for Battle Royale II in May.

paper_4-27amsilvh.jpg

At this point, I want to complete my responsibility for my adamant trade "recommendation" back on Wednesday. Anyone who listened and bought silver near $30 and gold near $1635 is now on their own. I'm glad you made some money and, if I were you, I'd hold here with stops back near your entry point. That said, nothing wrong with "ringing the register", either. At any rate, It's good to be right again...for once.

The GDP numbers are also playing heck with The Pig this morning. Again, you should be watching this very closely. A sharply falling Pig would catch many by surprise here and would, obviously, have a positive impact in PM prices. IF the POSX falls much farther below 79, some stops will be run and we will see a quick drop toward 78.50 and then 78. IF 78 fails, we're looking at 75. Needless to say, a POSX at 75 does not translate to $1660 gold.

paper_4-27ampigh.jpg

And you should be watching crude, too, particularly at these price levels. A decisive move through $105 and it's back on. We'll soon be looking at $110 dollars again and $4.00/gallon gasoline in the U.S. Of course, the O'Bomney administration would very much like to avoid this ahead of the election so you must expect all sorts of dirty tricks to suppress/cap price (SPR releases, etc.). However, the global crude oil market is so massive that their tricks are limited in their impact. Again, watch this closely.

paper_4-27amcrudeh.jpg

One more thing before I wrap up. I couldn't help but notice the overnight discussion on the previous thread, so, let me tell you what I did this morning. I called Andrew Maguire. Why? Because I could. I had read all of the nonsense disparaging him and his (our) motives and I thought, "Gee, I wish I could call him to thank him for putting up with all of this incessant crap". Of course, because of the amazing surreal twist of fate that has made me "Turd", I actually now have the ability to call him, so I did. And I thanked him. Thanked him for his expertise. Thanked him for his willingness to put himself out there. Thanked him for his willingness to be subjected to lies and ridicule, all the while dealing with lawsuits, lawyers and gag orders, all for the ultimate benefit of US as he does his part in the fight against The Bullion Bank Cartels.

Let me tell you something: He's a great guy! He's 60 years old (Sorry, Andy, if you're reading this) and he doesn't need this crap. He's been trading for 30 years and doesn't need me, you, or anyone around him, other than his family. But he does it anyway and now he actually takes my calls. Earlier this week, we spent about an hour visiting about a variety of things and when we finished I thanked him because I felt like I had just completed a graduate-level trading course. The guy knows more about trading and the physical bullion market than I will ever know and yet he's willing to freely share his experience. I could go on and on but, for the sake of time, I won't. Just trust me when I tell you that Andrew Maguire is the real deal and he's working on a number of things behind the scenes, the new Chinese Physical Silver Exchange is one of them, that are going to greatly impact the fair pricing of the precious metals. We are all in his debt.

Be sure to check back later today for the release of the latest TFMR podcast. It's a return visit by "Ranting" Andy Hoffman and, having already listened to it, I can tell you that you will certainly enjoy it. The part where I ask him about those who maintain that "silver is not money" is priceless. Those two minutes alone are worth the price of admission (which is free anyway).

Have a fun day. TF

116 Comments

bellyacre's picture

FIRST

Number One

PM Stackin' Fool's picture

Silver Metal

2nd, Yeah Baby!

¤'s picture

1/3, 3rd, third, Thurd, Tres' Hombre.....did I miss one?

Thanks T-Bone!

It's almost odd to see how this Andrew Maguire saga has turned into a "pick on the little guy vs. let's believe the big banks completely" type of debate. I ask myself why?

Whether it's just opinion based or something altogether different I don't know. But what it appears like at times is that an organized effort to discredit and render AM's assertions/allegations as phony first and foremost and then character assassination secondly is at work here.

I know squat about the insider part of this like some of you do. But it looks like a concerted media effort or publicity campaign on someone's part to continually go after this man and KWN. Obviously, someone is worried somewhere about AM and they're trying to discredit him before any litigation really starts in earnest. 

Hang in there Andy. One of my favorite sayings (that I think I coined, probably not) is "Damn the torpedoes! Become the torpedo!"

Looks like you've done just that yes

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Need a laugh or some eye candy from the day to day stuff?

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/frivolity-forum

JimmyTheHand's picture

Thank you Andrew, Andy and Turd

Thank you all for your continued contributions to the community!  Furthermore thank you for helping create the community and giving it a place to grow!

swampman's picture

The TFMR National debt clock

The TFMR national debt clock just hit $16,000,000,000,000 a few minutes ago. Keep stacking.

Bugzy's picture

On a more serious note

Does anyone keep getting flashing mental images of Ann Barnhardt with a riding crop and handcuffs. Or is it just me?

SV's picture

The Poor Stay Poor!!!! That's the message today, folks

Stocks remain above 13,000 waiting to get cut in half on the altar of a New World Incoming! Austerity measures and restructuring brought to us by the same people who brought us the nineteenth century! When does it all tank for good or do they mean INCREMENTAL when they say incrementalism! Keep stackin'!!!  Why?

 
Because at our fingertips we have the power to take control of our own lives. First things first, we have to enjoy our environment, for our environment is a reflection of ourselves. Do you find yourself in a noisy, crowdy city? Know that the outlay of the city is such that stresses easily permeate into your life, as the cramped quarters and cacophony of the swooshing freeways, the ghettobird police helicopters and the turmoil inside others manifested on the out. We haveto recognized an inner-calm that resides within us and we have to listen to that. It tells us to take control of our personal finance, not to turn to others to tell us what to do, think and feel.
 
Creating one's own income is the first step to freedom, for it gives us the feeling of control over our own lives. This is the first step of any meaningful social change. We must first experience to understand. Just like we had to experience the tyranny of civilization before we could understand it, we must experience nature's base tranquility to understand it and its role in our personal and collective lives.
 
And you don't have ato be poor. By putting your money in a moral place, in physical silver, you take it out of banks which lend out their reserves like automatic weapon fire many times over. The ammunition never runs out when you've got billions of people addicted on the form of those reserves, The Federal Reserve Note.  This will backfire and fade to vapor in the winds of the hurricane which follows.
 
Clubfoolish's picture

bugzy

LOL - probably just you.

I'm a Charlize Theron kind of guy myself...no accessories necessary.

; )

ClinkinKY's picture

Remember the "good old days"?... just 5 months ago.

The TFMR National debt clock

The TFMR national debt clock just hit $16,000,000,000,000 a few minutes ago. Keep stacking.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By Bill McGuire

Nov 16, 2011 1:02pm

U.S. Debt Tops $15 Trillion Mark Today

ht national debt clock wy 111116 wblog U.S. Debt Tops $15 Trillion Mark Today

El Gordo's picture

This administration gives new

This administration gives new emphasis to the old adage "Expect the unexpected."  I don't think we've had an economic announcement from them yet that did not include the word "unexpceted" in it's headline.

Driven81's picture

Kind of strange

That there is still debate among us as to whether or not silver and gold are money. You'd think this whole community would at least understand that much. Its good to be different when it comes to social things. But when it comes to knowledge, one should always take care what he differs in.

Looks like silver is forming a bowl shape....but also looks like it will dip downwards a bit before heading back up, just my take. Silver 2 hrs chart.

Orange's picture

Andrew Maguire

Andrew, I for one would like to offer my deepest appreciation and respect for what you have done and continue to do. You above all, should be Knighted or better provided a Lordship.

Here in Turdville, I vote to bestow the honorary title of Silver Baron.

Thank you for all you have done, and I appreciate your willingness to be close to the Turd and therefore to us in Turdville.  

50sQuiff's picture

IndigoStar7

Perhaps this current bout of railing against KWN/McGuire/Sprott/Turk and all things permabull is symptomatic of a long, grinding correction that has finally run its course. I don't think there is a concerted campaign in progress, however. It seems to be the product of a group of creepy, improbably smug bloggers, who tend to forget the KWN crowd have been banging the drum on gold since 2001. 

Sometimes it's worth revisiting the archives to gauge credibility. This roundtable discussion from 2004 features Jim Puplava, Eric King, John Embry and Bill Murphy. People may find the content rather impressive:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/roundtable/rt071004.mp3

The macro calls are bang on and they put their money where their mouth is. In the discussion Eric King reveals he bought 3 tons of physical silver at $4/oz. 

Duke's picture

13th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

13th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

S&P 500 Breaks Range Top, US Dollar Losses Grip on Support

S&P 500 – Prices took out resistance at 1391.10-20 marked by the recent range top and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Bulls are now testing the 61.8% level at 1399.10, with a break above exposing the April 2 closing high at 1416.10. The 1391.10-20 area has been recast as near-term support.

SP_500_Breaks_Range_Top_US_Dollar_Losses_Grip_on_Support_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Breaks Range Top, US Dollar Losses Grip on Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL – Prices are showing a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 104.90, a former support level reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from early March. The setup warns of bullish exhaustion and hints a turn lower maybe ahead. Initial rising trend line support is now at 101.98.

SP_500_Breaks_Range_Top_US_Dollar_Losses_Grip_on_Support_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Breaks Range Top, US Dollar Losses Grip on Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD – Prices the top of a falling channel set from early March now at 1660.60, with a break higher exposing 1680.35. Support lines up at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Absent a daily close above the channel top, the overall trend remains bearish.

SP_500_Breaks_Range_Top_US_Dollar_Losses_Grip_on_Support_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Breaks Range Top, US Dollar Losses Grip on Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices took out support at 9906 to test the next downside barrier at 9879. Continued selling through this barrier exposes 9832. The 9906 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above seeing trend line resistance now at 9926.

SP_500_Breaks_Range_Top_US_Dollar_Losses_Grip_on_Support_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Breaks Range Top, US Dollar Losses Grip on Support

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Big L's picture

We all owe a debt

of gratitude to the folks who devote their time and energy and effort on behalf of others. I suspect that when I hit 60, more than anything I'll want to sail gently into the sunset and enjoy the coast to the finish.

God Bless people like Andrew who continue to devote their energies to sharing a lifetime of knowledge and experience, even when faced with, not just detractors, but those that attack both the ideas and the man.

I don't get what's in it for those who want to tear people like him down. Really? If he's wrong, so what? If he's right, we're all in his debt.

Offering a counter idea or criticism of his work is one thing, but name calling and personal attacks are truly way over the line. It doesn't add anything, it's not informative and it's just plain ugly.

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

Dollar Gains on Spain Rating Cut, US GDP Report on Tap Ahead

The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) and Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight as Asian stocks declined, boosting demand for the go-to safe haven currencies, after Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s sovereign credit rating and assigned it a negative outlook, saying a recession will undermine the government’s ability to reduce the budget deficit. Eurozone crisis fears overshadowed would-be downward pressure on the Yen after the Bank of Japan expanded its stimulus efforts by a cumulative ¥10 trillion yen, broadly in line with market expectations.

Futures tracking key European stock indexes and the S&P 500 are sharply lower, hinting the risk-averse is set to carry forward into Wall Street trade. On the data calendar, the focus is first-quarter US Gross Domestic Product figures, where expectations point to a 2.5 percent annualized quarterly increase after a 3 percent rise in the three months through December.

The result is likely to be interpreted in the context of this week’s FOMC policy meeting, with a better-than-expected outcome carrying the possibility of reminding traders that Ben Bernanke’s commentary was hardly as supportive of QE3 as traders’ initial reaction suggested. Alternatively, a disappointing print will further fuel stimulus bets and may renewed downward pressure on the greenback.

Elsewhere, an Italian bond auction will be interesting to watch as Eurozone debt crisis fears heat up anew. Rome is scheduled to sell a tranche of 2016-2022 debt, with investors keeping a close eye on average yield levels to gauge the severity of returning funding stress. The spread between yields on benchmark German 10-year bonds and Italian equivalents rose 14bps ahead of the sale, tapping a three-month high at 410bps.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:15

JPY

Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (APR)

50.7

-

51.1

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (MAR)

4.5%

4.5%

4.5%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAR)

0.76

0.76

0.75

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (MAR)

3.4%

4.1%

2.3%

23:30

JPY

National CPI YoY (MAR)

0.5%

0.4%

0.3%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAR)

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAR)

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.6%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (APR)

-0.3%

-0.1%

-0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (APR)

-0.5%

-0.3%

-0.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (APR)

-1.0%

-0.9%

-1.0%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR P)

1.0%

2.3%

-1.6%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR P)

13.9%

15.6%

1.5%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (MAR)

10.3%

10.0%

3.4% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

-1.2%

-0.5%

2.0%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers’ Sales (MAR)

5.0%

7.2%

0.2%

1:30

CNY

Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (MAR)

-1.3%

-

-5.2%

1:35

CNY

MNI Business Confidence Survey (APR)

56.04

55.40

54.81

3:46

JPY

Bank of Japan Rate Decision

0.10%

0.10%

0.10%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (MAR)

143.7%

-

19.70%

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (MAR)

-0.3%

-

-1.80%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (MAR)

0.848M

0.875M

0.917M

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR)

5.0%

8.2%

7.5%

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY)

5.9

5.9

Low

6:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

-

1.0%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

-

3.5%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (MoM) (MAR)

0.6%

0.8%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Producer Prices (YoY) (MAR)

4.0%

4.3%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (MAR)

-1.9%

3.0%

Low

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (YoY) (MAR)

-0.2%

0.5%

Low

7:00

CHF

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (APR)

0.2

0.08

Medium

8:00

EUR

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

-0.2%

0.7%

Low

8:00

EUR

Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

-1.9%

-0.8%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italy to Sell 2016-2022 Bonds

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3097

1.3256

GBPUSD

1.6136

1.6209

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

¤'s picture

Orange

Nice!yes

50sQuiff....Wow! 3 tons? Holy smokes!

It's good to be a King I guess cool

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

DailyFX

US Dollar Expected to Rise vs Euro, Waiting for Entry to Sell Yen
We continue to hold a short Euro position against the US Dollar and looking for an attractive setup to sell the Japanese Yen against the greenback.
Dr G's picture

If Ranting Andy admits that

If Ranting Andy admits that silver isn't money, then I'm wholly screwed!

Thanks for that interview link from 2004. 3 tons of silver @ $4 is child's play :)

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

The CME's Daily Delivery Report

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 72 gold and zero silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. Today is the last day in the April delivery month and, all things being equal, the CME will post the First Day Notice numbers for May silver on their website later tonight...and if that's the case, it will be a talking point in Saturday's column.

For the third day in a row, there were no reported changes in either GLD, SLV...nor a sales report from the U.S. Mint.

One thing that I forgot to mention in my Wednesday column were the changes in short positions in the shares of both SLV and GLD. The latest bi-weekly report showed that the short position in SLV declined by 4.59 percent from 11.78 million shares/ounces, down to 11.24 million shares/ounces. Not a lot, to be sure, but it's better than the alternative. The short position in GLD was up again...this time by 13.60 percent. The number of shares of GLD held short [with no metal backing them] rose from 11.03 million to 12.54 million. That's about 40 tonnes of the stuff, which is not an insignificant amount. In silver, the tonnage is far more substantial...a hair under 350 tonnes, which is more than five days of total world silver production.

It was a pretty quiet day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday. They reported receiving 300,782 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 93,256 ounce of the stuff out the door. Virtually all the action was over at Brink's, Inc. once again...and the link to that is here.

By Ed Steer

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

Infrormaton Liberation

Marc Faber: Economy Will Be Worse Than The Great Depression

This interview is posted over a theinformationliberation.com 

The link is here.

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

S&P Cuts Spain's Long-Term Credit Rating 2 Notches

S&P reduced Spain's long-term sovereign credit rating to "BBB+" from "A." The agency also lowered Spain's short-term rating and assigned a negative outlook, which suggests the possibility of another downgrade in the near future.

Spain's credit rating is still in investment grade, three notches above junk status. Nonetheless, the lower rating could increase the nation's borrowing costs because investors will likely demand higher interest rates to compensate for the greater risk implied by the downgrade.

Posted The New York Times website

The link is here.

swampman's picture

The EE may be very worried

The EE may be very worried about available silver. Thanks to "Battle Beagle" for this article:

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-megathrust

Silver production minus demand = about -10,000 tons (silver deficit). The worst since 1965. In 2009 it was about -6300 tons. This increase is huge and is getting worse. Add that to SRSRocco's chart of declining ore grades, increasing costs of fuels (especially bad for junior miners), and mining projects being shelved, you have a looming silver availability problem.

They've raised margins numerous times and now I think they're sending educated trolls here to present complex yet believable arguments about 'silver isn't money' or 'the GSR will hit 500' and other nonsense to create fear and seeds of doubt about silver. I do believe they see a looming problem and are trying to buy time. My 2c.

HeNateMe's picture

F the Naysayers

Turd was right.  Good call re the bottom the other day.  Anyone who bought made money.  

I may not say it enough, but I love you Turd and Andrew!  Smooches.  kiss

HeNateMe

Eric Original's picture

Timmins Gold

Timmins Gold leading the way for me today, plus follow through from recent heroes Aurizon and Kirkland.

I'm tellin' you guys, the bottom is in on the miners.

But then....I always say that!  cheeky

6972669642_210482a302_z.jpg

tyberious's picture

TFV

Dave, over at the Fundamental View started all this anti-Maguire crap.  This is the same guy that said PM manipulation doesn't exist, LOL. I stopped following him about 6 months ago, when he said just do what the big boys do and make money! What rob and steal! What a Douche!

Anyway, here are some links if you feel like getting pissed off!

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2012/04/stop-it-there-was-no-manipulation-in.html

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2012/04/who-is-andrew-maguire-i-mean-really-who.html

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2012/04/my-oh-my-gold-manipulation-right-on.html

firstsilver's picture

Bickering, our new national pastime

The nitpicking -- and worse -- that seems to have infected this site is, sadly, symptomatic of the malady affecting society at large, that being arguing for the sake of arguing.

Most, it seems have turned into perpetual skeptics, cynics and critics, except where their pet causes are concerned. Then they are deaf, dumb and blind to rational evidence that contradicts their opinions and/or beliefs.

I'm no Obama fan, but I can concede that he is not responsible for all the problems the U.S. faces. Similarly, George W. deserves to be cut some slack this long after he left office.

Investing, politics, and all other areas of our existence seldom are clear-cut black and white, but more often shades in between. I wish more would accept this.

The sniping at Turd and Andrew makes one wonder why these guys subject themselves to the garbage. I guess it's because they are better people than so many of us.

tyberious's picture

Hold on to your hat

http://www.silverseek.com/article/futures-exchange-offer-contracts-silver

Futures exchange to offer contracts for silver

April 27, 2012 - 7:03am

The Shanghai Futures Exchange received regulatory approval on Wednesday to start trading in silver contracts, giving Chinese investors a new way to bet on the precious metal.

The lot size of the contracts was set at 15 kilograms and the lot prices will be allowed to fluctuate by 5 percent a day. The margin requirement was set at 7 percent and prices will be quoted in yuan. The minimum amount the prices will be allowed to fluctuate was set at 1 yuan (16 US cents).

The silver contracts are the first of their type to be offered in China. Before, investors had to use Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag (T+D) contracts to conduct certain transactions of the metal. They could also go to commercial banks to buy paper silver, which don't have to be delivered physically.

"There has been an absence of a means of trading in silver in China," said Wang Ruilei, an analyst with CGS Co Ltd, a precious metal trader. "The market will be bigger and more liquid with the advent of these future contracts."

Turd Ferguson's picture

good stuff from Santa

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