The Greased Pig

Isn't it funny how the brain works? I start out this morning by looking at a few charts of the POSX. Next, I'm looking at a chart of crude. I begin thinking about writing a post regarding a "greasy pig" and, before I know it, I'm watching this video. Out here in the sticks, nestled between Nowhere and Bumfuk, the locals find amusement at such simple things. Maybe you will, too.

So, anyway, back to the charts that started all of this earlier. As I said, I'm apparently one of the few "analysts" who is still watching the POSX. Seems there's hardly much discussion about it these days. A false sense of complacency perhaps? Perhaps, and with so many folks concerned now with Spain, France and the EU in general, maybe The Pig is set for another leg higher. However, with the metals making what appear to be such obvious bottoms, perhaps ole Pigatha can provide some impetus for a price recovery.

Take a look at these charts. Note first that on the hourly chart, The Pig is firmly entrenched in a down channel and has been for the last two weeks. This is such a prominent and obvious trend that it may take something dramatic for it to break out in the short term. Why is a short term breakout important/vital? Well, take a look at the daily chart beside it. The index now sits right atop the trendline from the lows last August that were made prior to the announcement of Operation Twist. A breakdown through the trendline would indicate a minimum drop to 78 and, if 78 fails, a drop back toward 75 or even the all-important 73. Also note that a case could be made that The Pig has already broken down through the line. (This is the lighter pink line on the chart.)

paper_4-26ampigh.jpgpaper_4-26ampigd_0001.jpg

Another major indicator that has reached a critical point is crude. Take a close look at the daily chart below. IF crude can break higher here and move back through $105, it will signal the beginning of a new UPtrend and set a target of at least $110, if not $115. However, if it fails at this level, it will drop back to at least $101 and, failing there, will have a go at $98. Watch this closely the next few days.

paper_4-26amcrude.jpg

As you might imagine, I am very relieved by the action the metals since late yesterday. It was so clearly obvious that they had to be bought at $30 and $1630 but, with things the way they are post-MFG, it's increasingly nerve-wracking to stick my neck out and urge a trade. At $1655 and $31, I'm very excited about our prospects from here but I would strongly urge anyone who bought yesterday to apply some stops at yesterday's lows. Today, we saw selling into the London PM fix at 10:00 am EDT but have since seen a further rally. The next critical level in gold is 1660 and for silver it is the old support level of 31.00-31.35. Moving back through and closing above those levels would be very encouraging and would likely cause an extension of the rally as more nervous, weak-handed shorts continue to cover.

If you have some time today, you should read the items linked below. First, our pal Jim Quinn has released part 2 of his current series. http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=33585 And your other assignment is to read the text of this speech to the NY Fed by Robert Wenzel. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/robert-wenzel-addresses-new-york-fed-lots-head-scratching-ensues. Like Jim Grant last month, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/must-read-jim-grant-crucifies-fed-explains-why-gold-standard-best-option, Wenzel blasts away at our fuzzy-headed monetary masters. Why the Fed pretends to be interested in all of this is beyond me. I imagine they are just attempting to patronize their critics and, once they leave the building, they simply laugh off the criticism, if they even listened at all.
 

Finally, I'll be recording this week's podcast later today. Given the increasingly blatant manipulation of the PMs, I thought I'd ring up Ranting Andy again in order to have him explain, in greater detail, how The Cartels coordinate and implement their attacks. If any of you have specific questions you'd like me to pose to Andy, please include them in the comments section of this post. I likely won't be able to ask all of them but I'll certainly pick a few. Thanks in advance for your input.

I hope everyone has a fun day. Keep your fingers crossed for a move back above 1660 and 31.   TF

237 Comments

indosil's picture

What's Happening?

Can somebody tell me what's happening with the metals today??I mean gold & silver very resilient..good to c that..but what's the cause??

Wizard's picture

Proof That Mass Brainwashing Is Very Effective

Silver has only been removed from the money supply for 47 years and people have been repeatedly told from authorities that is only an industrial metal.

So it has taken less than one generation to make people forget thousands of years of real history, that silver's function is and always has been money.

Wow Un-Frickin believable,

It is just in recent history that it's high electric conductivity, and Antimicrobial properties are being put to large scale use.

achmachat's picture

Xty

many many countries used 900/1000 silver coins as currency.

my latest 900/1000 coins are 1975 Lirot coins from Israel and 1982 Drachma coins from Greece. (mine are uncirculated but these were all "normal" currency)

Xty's picture

Wizard - yes indeed

Over 2000 years accumulated knowledge gone in 47 years - thank god I am 49!  Missed it by that much!

Cleburne61's picture

Miners Are Down...

On days that silver and gold are crucified beyond recognition....miners are down...

On days that silver and gold have slain the enemy and are carrying off the enemies' wenches on their shoulders....miners are down...

On days of sidewise action, where silver and gold are heroically fighting off repeated attempted Cartel raids...miners are down...

On days of healthy Dow movements up, with all segments of industry in the leafy green....miners are down...

On days of dollar weakness as the reserve currency pukes up a week's gains....miners are down...

On days when we learn of new bank, government, municipality, or corporate insolvency...miners are down...

On days when we learn of 74 more months of straight ZIRP from the Fed Sugardaddy....miners are down...

On days when unemployment figures are so horrendous, that markets conclude that only 78 nurpillion dollars of more QE can stave off collapse..miners are down...

On days when miners are up....miners are down...

I've had it.  I've just about decided to give up these treasured treasure hunters.  Shame on you Peter Schiff, and Doug Casey, and Jeff Clark, and anyone else who SHOULD KNOW BETTER, who still thinks these are freely traded markets, and that we're still climbing a ridiculous 4 year "wall of worry".  You guys are taking losses on your prime time picks, and you deserve it, because you refuse to recognize reality, and help the rest of us fight this injustice.

P.S.- Please pray for BrotherJohnF, as he's been hospitalized with heart problems, and the doctors are trying to determine the problem.  Thanks.

Exbroker's picture

WOW!

Look at all those little future Communist chasing the pig we call Govt! Wonderful training video. I am so proud to  be Ameri Can! I'm sure my grandparents are roalin over in their graves right now. Isn't our fearless leader talking about enacting laws prohibiting children from working on farms until they are 18? Ya got that child labor law thing goin on, ya know. But it's OK to sacrifice them to Molech at some goofy faggot party in some Red Wood Forest. I love this country!

Exbroker's picture

Yup..just made another list

Probably won't be working any Nuke Plant shutdowns anytime soon.

Dr G's picture

In my dictionary, under the

In my dictionary, under the term "miners", it says "see also: down".

Good luck with that.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Your primary chart

MODERATOR

large_4-26amgoldd.jpg

Exbroker's picture

Lovely Turd.

I call that I got you by the balls pinch point!

Exbroker's picture

But, then again...

I don't trust any of these guys. Until the paper market collapses, we still have a problem. We will never ever see a free market in this country again. 

Tabberto's picture

John Butler

question's picture

Very Off Topic (so what?)

From http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/

"......that the twilight of America’s global empire is merely an incident in the greater trajectory of the end of the industrial age, and part of that greater trajectory may just have come into sight over the last week.

Some background might be in order. For several years now, it has been possible for ships to sail from the northern Atlantic to the northern Pacific via the Arctic Ocean in late summer and early autumn. In the great days of European maritime exploration, any number of expeditions wrecked themselves in Arctic ice in futile attempts to find the fabled Northwest Passage; now, for the first time in recorded history, it’s a routine trip for a freighter, and as often as not the route is blue water all the way without an ice floe in sight. (Somehow global warming denialists never get around to talking about this.) Last autumn, though, crew members aboard several ships reported seeing, for the first time, patches of sea that appeared to be bubbling, and initial tests indicated that the bubbles were methane.  This was a source of some concern, since methane is a far more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide...."

Read the rest there. Troubling.

Bugzy's picture

I wonder

What would be the psychological price of Gold at which people would start to seriously suspect that a massive reverse head and shoulder is on the cards?

You see it does not have to break the neck line. It just has to look as if it might. $1700, $1720, $1740?

Seems to me that a lot of the "debate" about Silver is coming from an American (Western) centric stand point.

When folk get sick of inflation and getting scammed by the banks (nice video earlier) folk will buy anything to preserve their purchasing power.

This has nothing to do with what TPTB deem as money. The truth is that WE are TPTB. We have just been brainwashed and disempowered. Please stop thinking like a slave as you will be what you think you are. This whole site is about liberation. Please start thinking and acting as the free individual you truly are.

A country is not its landmass or its politicians. No, a country is defined by its people. We just have to remember and awaken from our hypnotic ipad slumber. Gandhi, King, Mandela..............Turdites.

Silver and Gold are already mediums of exchange. This is increasing every day in the world. People only used the fiat because it was convenient and worked (to a point). The poor folk on that video just woke up sooner. They could tell they were losing chicken heads and goats. Their stomachs told them. We might cut down on a Starbucks (or a Timmy's) - no big deal YET. It will be though. Watch this space.

Bugzy.

Eric Original's picture

Aurizon Mines is my Hero

Latest post on it from my miner thread here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/155341#comment-155341

7116133315_d0cfa5e535_z.jpg

Exbroker's picture

BRAVO!!!!

Get the message out. Although the kids you educate seem to leave class and become brain dead.I call them APPL HEADS. You remember what happend when  she took a bite of the tree.  If memory serves me....it was an Apple tree

Exbroker's picture

Shit

I was refering to Eve and how she took a bite of the Apple. My bad

Turd Ferguson's picture

Excellent, tabberto

MODERATOR

I had read the transcript of this interview but had not seen the video. Great stuff! All should watch!!

http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/04/26/gold-standard-inevitable-10k-oz-looms-sa?videoId=233975545&videoChannel=1

Response to: John Butler
recaptureamerica's picture

How Much Gold Would You Need

How Much Gold Would You Need to Recreate Scrooge McDuck's Gold Coin Swim?
http://www.livescience.com/19919-gold-recreate-scrooge-mcduck-gold-coin-swim.html

ivars's picture

Now I have a question- is this for real?

Repost as I hope to get more answers (Turd has answered it already 2 days before).

Seems we are confidently heading/already inside the predicted end of April/beginning of May dip (green line) -1 USD below it-so the average lows could be around 29-30 with some possible short spike lower:

Now I have a question: Do You really believe, based on other things, that this IS THE FINAL DIP? ( it may take few weeks-month to get out of it)?

As You may know, if it is so, then its time to invest even in trading, since volatility should not bring silver anymore below this dip - not in next 5 years, at least.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78025#comment-78025

But is it?

1ShotAK's picture

America’s oil production ?

http://agorafinancial.com/reports/OST/Rebirth/external_041712_ESI89AR_vp.php?code=LOSTN422

Has anyone read this article about America’s oil production?

Let's say if America's oil production does lower the price of oil what effect would it have on PM's?

Would this force all the FRNs to hit the marked and precipitate the fall of the FRN?

There are a lot of smart guys out there, what do you think?

Thank you,

V/R 1ShotAK, a one in the hand kinda guy :)

Driven81's picture

Vid looks like mini me Bernankies trying to catch gold

What a bunch of good sports lol, hope they all got big yellow hats

Tecumseh's picture

MINERS

Time to buy the miners?  We know that their share prices are woefully suppressed and their true values are many times higher than the prices at which they currently are trading.  So, on the realities alone, the miners are a good buy.  Throw into the mix the fact that they are about as low as humanly imaginable, the fact that gold and silver will, over the next three or four years, quadruple in value, and the coming PM bubble of the 206-2018 timeframe, and it is clear that the miners are a best buy right now.  I bought a long time ago and wish I had waited.  I am certain that those who buy miners presently will be rewarded with profits well above the profits enjoyed by those who bought straight bullion. 

recaptureamerica's picture

Must have Corzinosis..when u can't remember shit from the day b4

Chesapeake Board Backtracks on What It Knew About CEO Loans
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chesapeake-board-backtracks-knew-ceo-154020272.html

Exbroker's picture

One more ounce than the

One more ounce than the guy trying to out bid you

recaptureamerica's picture

25 Signs That America Is A

71185208's picture

Hey Xty The way I see it,

Hey Xty

The way I see it, silver was used as coinage, not only in North America but all over the world, until about that time. We had silver coins until about 1968, if memory serves (not that I was around then). The % of silver in coins was diminished over time. I do think there is a difference between the substance of our coins and what passes for a store of value, as Victor has written about. Where I live, coins are made out of steel with bronze/copper/nickel plating, depending on the coin. Same thing in many other countries. This doesn't mean that steel is currency.

BUT I guess some would argue that in a free world, currency is chosen naturally and not by fiat and the world naturally drifted towards commodities (gold and silver) as currency because they had properties that made them useful as currency. The Austrians emphasize that in a free world, money is a commodity, while others emphatically state that gold is not a commodity, it is currency. It seems like semantical differences. But whatever one calls it, commodity or currency, it has to be a store of value and tradable to be useful to me.

In times past, the face value of the coins was greater than the value of the silver content. When silver was last used in coins, I think it was used in the same way that steel is used today.Silver was far more plentiful and cheaper to mint and putting it in coins ascribed a sense of value to fiat currency. If silver were truly currency in 1960, then silver coins would fluctuate in value with the price of silver, and not have had a fixed $1 (or whatever) face value. Contrast silver coins in the 60's with a gold eagle which has a certain face value but that's not what it is traded for, it is traded for the value of the gold.

Anyhow, that's how I see it.

Cheers

Dr G's picture

@Ivars, I don't believe it's

@Ivars, I don't believe it's the final dip. I also don't believe your chart.

I also disagree with your trading mentality. I like the volatility. It gives plenty of upside room to make money.

bbacq's picture

Xty, Victor, 71185208 et al: Silver as money...

On the previous thread, IS7 made my point before I had a chance to type it in, regarding concentration of ownership and "monetary value" of a good.  Let's see how brief I can keep this... I posted on this in the previous thread.  If you are tempted to respond, please take a look there first...

Adam Smith focussed on specialization of labour, but largely neglected specialization in the use of goods.  Currency is one potential use of a good in the market.  The market selected precious metals as currency over millenia, and both gold and silver (and to a certain extent, copper and other metals, and certain gems etc) were thus granted by the market a significant value-premium over other uses.

IS7 on the last thread made an important point about the potential for gold and particularly silver being granted this currency-value-premium again.  The market is currently seeking better currency to use as money, after spending decades suffering from having fiat foisted upon it.  Those who have done the foisting (governments, private banks, central banks, etc) and whose interests lie in perpetuating the fraud have expended great effort to make sure that alternatives appeared inferior.  The manipulations of gold priced in fiat using the London Fix at the LBMA, and highly leveraged short positions in silver on the COMEX are quite well documented.  The question is: what's next, currency-wise?

More fiat: I think if one is in this camp, one has one's head well dug-in.  When the world is awash in promises, more promises will not be valued very highly by the market, unless, somehow, the promises are very much "better" than before.  A promise that a piece of paper can at any time be redeemed into a physical good *might* help, which brings us to...

Another round of gold-backed currencies: I think that the market is still quite jaded by yet-another-failure of an attempt to fix a paper currency to gold, in '71 when the wicket finally closed.  So if gold-backing is to succeed, it will have to have some pretty strict reserve ratios and auditing requirements, else the required faith will not exist.

Gold resuming its throne: The difficulty here is that gold ownership has been greatly concentrated during the fiat fiascos, and redistributing the gold so that it could resume its function as currency would be difficult.  There is no question that return-to-currency-value has been driving the price of gold in fiat terms upward over the last decades, so this effect is occuring to some extent, despite concentration of ownership.  Gresham's law is driving the gold into private vaults.

Silver, on the other hand, lost a great deal more of its currency-value than gold did during the fiat fiascos, and as a result sees more industrial use, and has greater industrial-use-value to currency-use-value than gold.  People still talk about "gold reserves" but there is little talk of "silver-reserves" in currency discussions.  Silver is much more widely held (I believe) than gold.  Further, the potential for silver to have greater currency-value increases as above-ground stocks are used up, because it limits market supply through dis-hoarding.

71185208 wrote: "I have to second S Roche's view that silver is "an emotional trade with a historical perspective"...even if it logically cannot function as a currency as gold can, I submit to you that you are dismissing some entrenched human psychology here. I too don't believe silver will ever be accumulated by central banks and it won't return as a monetary metal."

Currency-value of a good is not a binary thing, as many seem to imply.  The extent to which a good derives its value (and thus price) from its various potential uses is a continuum, and while both gold and silver have had some currency-value squeezed out of them for a while, silver more than gold, both of these metals continue to function in this currency role to some extent, in different markets around the world.

And, as paradoxically is the case when dealing with any complex system, it may be that precisely because central banks and governments have largely divested themselves of their silver reserves, silver is in a better position now to resume a larger monetary role than it has been for many, many decades, perhaps centuries.

We are experiencing a test (and failure) of central banking in general.  It simply doesn't work very well, for most people, and the market will therefore find a way to work around it. 

I can easily see how silver could be the dagger through the heart of central banking.

bbacq

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