Well, THAT Was Interesting
What a day, huh? First we saw some May silver call-sellers get squeezed. Then, the FOMC statement caused a sharp selloff. Unfortunately for The Cartel, no waterfall ensued as price quickly rebounded. We now look to be on the verge of a rally. Let's get started!
I know that many folks come here only to read my blogs or to visit Pailin's Corner. In doing so, many miss out on the terrific information that is shared in the comments. Rather than re-type my thoughts from earlier, here are some C&Ps of my comments from the previous thread:
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April 25, 2012 - 10:46am.
If anyone is willing to gamble in the casino, now would be the time. This reeks of a screwing of put sellers ahead of option expiry. The final beatdown before the reversal.
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April 25, 2012 - 11:17am.
The summer is going to be hot and explosive, though, so anyone gambling should be sure to buy time, too.
Maybe (buy) the Oct or Dec (silver) $40s?
All I know is that today's action is bullshit. May call sellers have been forced to hedge by shorting futures. Just like the action we saw in late March prior to April gold option expiry. Recall that after dropping to 1630, price rallied sharply back toward 1700. Same shit here.
I expect silver back to 32 or even 33 relatively quickly, The Bernank notwithstanding.
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April 25, 2012 - 11:21am.
A drop to 30 or just below is possible but I firmly believe that that is it.
Physical demand is very strong and there are literally tonnes waiting and hoping to be filled at $30.
EVERYTHING points to a bottom here. Longterm holders WILL NOT be disappointed.
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April 25, 2012 - 11:48am.
And most should NOT (be trading).
However, this action reminds me of the day in early November 2010 when QE2 was announced. A beatdown headfake occurred that day prior to the announcement.
Again, if you are willing to risk a loss in the casino, this looks like an excellent opportunity to give it a whirl.
Obviously, I believe today's low was the bottom. Maybe there will be a retest but $30 silver is going to be a very difficult barrier for the permabears to break. I would still be looking to put on a speculative position here with money you are fully content to lose if you are wrong or if it is stolen from you. That said, if you absolutely feel compelled to trade in the casino, this would be a good time to give it a try.
Gold is basing above what appears to be solid support between 1625 and 1635. As our pal, Winston, pointed out earlier today, physical demand is so strong and consistent here that further, sustained drops in paper price are highly unlikely. Gold will show signs of life when it trades back above 1650 and then 1660. Let's go into more detail and begin to get excited then. For now, let's just be happy to be building such a strong base from which we can, eventually, catapult forward.

Clearly, I'm excited about silver here, too. $30 silver completes the right shoulder of our massive, reverse H&S formation and Winston has informed us about incredible demand for physical silver at that level. I am nearly 100% certain that silver won't fall again much below today's lows. As it bases here, it is preparing for Battle Royale II. Of course you remember Battle Royale I at $36 in late February and the ensuing crush. Well, Battle Royale II now lies near our old nemesis of $33. What will happen next time? I can't say for sure but I'm quite certain we won't have to wait too long to find out.

Just a quick word about open interest and the next CoT. Today's OI (basis yesterday) came in at a new low of 395,389 in gold and 122,325 in silver. Recall that yesterday, price rose by about $10 so what we clearly saw was short-covering ahead of The Bernank. No doubt many of those same shorts were put back on this morning and are now, once again, waiting to be covered. While silver rose 22c yesterday, OI fell by about 400. Clearly this was a short-covering bump, too. Please allow me to emphasize this again:
Since March 15, paper silver has fallen in price by over almost $2 yet total Comex open interest has expanded by almost 15%. There is no question in my mind that this is the result of short contracts being added. Just as the EE fleeced the over-excited longs in February, they will soon fleece the over-indulgent shorts. Just be patient.
For the CoT reporting week, gold fell about $9 while shedding 3200 in OI. Silver fell $1.22 while adding about 1000 contracts. Here's why both are ultimately positive: Gold liquidity has been wrung out and now sits patiently in the sideline, waiting to return as the charts improve. The much smaller silver market has swung from speculative long excess in late Feb to speculative short excess in late April. The EE, playing both sides of the specs for profit, will soon close the trap on the foolish spec shorts.
Finally, this short video about government debt. Not much new here for the average Turdite but, since it's presented in such a brief and simple manner, perhaps you can C&P the url and email it to your friends.
That's all folks. Watch the overnight trade for signals of sovereign and big-money buying of physical post-Bernank. A positive London trade post 3:00 am would be a strong signal. TF
p.s. Tomorrow, April 26, is Israeli Independence Day. Be cautious and on the lookout for some crazy headlines.
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Comments
What is this supposed to mean?
TF,
you are quoting Ted that
The entire world’s gold bullion inventory (bars held for investment or monetary purposes) is now worth 150 times more than all the world’s silver bullion. The numbers are pretty straight-forward; the 3 billion ounces of gold bullion in the world is worth roughly $5 trillion at current prices ($1650) versus the $31 billion value of the world’s 1 billion ounces of silver bullion (at the current $31 price).
What is this supposed to tell people? There is no economic or financial reason on this planet that would determine that ratio. The ratio is arbitrary. You can replace silver by platinum, copper, lead, Picasso paintings, fancy diamonds, collectible stamps or chick peas.
Looking at the fundamentals, I would actually expect the ratio to keep increasing as gold assumes are more and more dominant role in the financial system while silver is used up by industrial consumption.
Victor
@bestever
I had to find that out the hard way, and consequently, I completely agree
@Xty I won't be first either, so hey the first one's on me
Victor
Would those things you mention get less valuable as they got more scarce, too?
Or is this property unique to Silver?
Thanks, bud.
BrotherJohnf is sick
BrotherJohnF is sick.
If you appreciate his video's and work and are so inclined maybe we could wish him well.
http://www.brotherjohnf.com/
40 Alternatives to College
Amen, bestever. A great e-book by blogger, James Altucher, was just published a couple weekends ago.
He calls it "40 Alternatives to College." Reading Altucher's introduction and reasons to not attend college is worth the price of the book alone. (Altucher priced the ebook at $0.99, because he is so passionate about the subject of college being a racket, that he wants to let as many people as possible to realize.)
40 Alternatives to College
Every high school student in America NEEDS to read this book before going into a life of debt-serfdom for a college education.
Sad to hear about
Sad to hear about BrotherJohnF. I appreciate his work (don't always agree with him, but am grateful for the time he devotes to it).
Here is how the typical family moves these days:
Deal?
Was busy for the better part of the afternoon so missed the afternoon show in real time. However, I did buy SLV in my trading account at $.20 intervals throughout the beatdown this morning. Turned out to be a good move by the close. However, did not sell out by the close. My trading track record is impeccable. I always find a way to be on the wrong side of the trade. That does not bode well for tonight. If my track record remains intact over night, I will offer my services (for a fee) for a one time and one time only bonanza. On Friday April 27th at exactly 1:01PM, I will personally purchase 10 (ten) shares of AAPL stock. Those who wish to participate in the bonanza need only short AAPL for one hour. I will sell my 10 shares at 2:01 PM. Will revisit this in the morning at the open.
You'll need a program to keep track of them
Seriously, like a sporting event because they're about to roll a bunch more of these people out the door for 'us'. How considerate of them.
More Fed heads & "policy makers" are about to get rolled out the door to stroke and shape their views (and the publics) and tell us why they were mistaken the last time and had to readjust their policies this time or maybe next time if this current policy doesn't work as anticipated.
I wrote about this very thing earlier today where the Fed is going to become much more talkative and give so many contrarian or convoluted opinions and analysis of their 'policies' that none of it can be trusted or deciphered. Bingo!
Get ready for a barrage of Fed analysis and obfuscation of the already opaque language they use going forward. A lot more curve balls are coming our way in an effort to "clarify/shape" their policy opinions. It's all B.S. and intended to cloud things imho.
Why would they feel compelled at this point to provide the names of policymakers and make them readily available to this extent? It's like a marketing blitz of contrarian Fed opinions, after the fact.
The Fed realizes at this point that the more they communicate through the MSM the more they actually confuse or make things even cloudier for the marketplace to extrapolate any clues as to their intentions and direction.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Bernanke Says Fed May Name Officials Making Rate Forecasts
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is considering identifying the interest-rate forecasts of individual policy makers as it reviews ways to improve its communications with the public.
The Fed is looking “for ways to improve transparency, and we’re looking at everything,” Bernanke said at a press conference today following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington. Giving the names of the individuals making forecasts is “on the table.”
The Fed currently releases a chart showing dots which correspond to the interest-rate forecasts of its 17 policy makers and a table showing the range of their forecasts for inflation, growth and unemployment. The chart doesn’t give the names of the policy makers. Only 10 of them are voting members of the FOMC in any given year, and the chart and table do not explain the preferences of the FOMC’s voting membership.
The FOMC’s committee on communications discussed providing more information that “could convey a sense of how the committee might adjust policy in response to changes in the economic outlook,” according to minutes of the Fed’s March meeting....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-25/bernanke-says-fed-may-identify-...
Yes, they do!
I Run Bartertown,
Would those things you mention get less valuable as they got more scarce, too?
Yes, in their function as money (store of value) scarcity is a problem because it makes the value unstable. Remember that gold is so valuable because it is so abundant (relative to changes in stock, i.e. relative to mine supply). The value of gold is completely independent of the question of whether some mines expand their supply or whether some dentists get crazy and waste a lot of gold. All this is tiny compared to the stock of more than 100000 tons and thus negligible.
But silver fails this test. Mine supply relative to existing stock is much bigger, and so changes in mine supply affect the price of silver. This explains why silver is poor money if compared with gold. (I know that chick peas are worse because they get stale - that part was mere provocation - but Picasso paintings, for example, are closer to gold than to silver because there is zero new supply, and so the stock is perfectly stable).
Victor
@ bestever and college
While I agree that most college degrees are useless, not all kids are built the same.
I will be visiting Boston this weekend with my daughter as she will be off to college in the fall. She has a 4.22 GPA in High school. She also got accepted into all 7 colleges that she applied to.
She was accepted by NYU but we passed on it because the annual tuiton is $56K EXCLUDING room and board!!!!! Yikes.
She accepted a full merit scholarship at a Boston based school. I like that!~
I could not be more proud of her!!!!!!!!!!!!
She is incredible and I would hire her before most of my current employees.
I just let go a person who I was paying a base salary of $90K plus bonuses. She was 29 yrs old. She never showed up to work and skipped meeting because " the rush hour commute was too much for her". Incredible!!!
So I agree, most of the kids are useless. I am currently hiring for two positions in the $100K range and cannot get qualified candidates. I have been interviewing candidates and I cannot tell you how many ask if they can telecommute, how much vacation time they get, what's the bonus structure, is there a 401K match. BEFORE THEY even tell me why they qualify for the job.
As an aside, I could not resist today's sale. I relieved APMEX off a box of Mint direct SF ASE's, a box of Dragon privy Maple leafs and 20 additional Maple Leaf Dragon Privy SP GEMS PCGS. I like these. The Titanic Privy coins went in a heartbeat.
That said, I am as proud as a parent can be by my daughter's accomplishments. And I am thrilled she is off to college to pursue her dreams (however cloudy the future may be). And it irks me to no end to know her future is filled with uncertainty and strife, because we have greedy, immoral politicians and bankers and their backers who could care less for the country or the future of us or our children. They have sold out the country and its citizens.
But I have hope, because of kids like my daughter..................
Rain
I'll play
Victor
You could say the same thing about gold if some set of circumstances made gold a questionable asset of value.
For example, what if the use of tungsten was found to be so prevalent and intermingled in many of the bars of gold scattered worldwide that the authenticity of any gold was called into question for a period of time? Would silver not increase in value in that scenario especially if it had a dual use, one that gold really doesn't have?
That's a horrible thought of course, but shows how I can arbitrarily just pick gold for some reason like you do with silver for whatever reason and try to find a reason to diminish it's potential value. No one can say anything definitive about any of this so to continually go after silver (and TF) is an exercise in opinion and I'm not sure what else.
To not even allow into your argument or even consider that the Chinese will have something to say in the future about silver being a monetary asset renders the debate/opinion incomplete and blind in one eye.
What are your thoughts on silver as it relates to China in the future? They reportedly have about 95% of the worlds resources within their boundaries. Is it to be excluded and not even considered in your forward thinking on why silver is so really no different then....chickpeas?
Are you actually being serious? Fresh water at some point could knock gold off that altar you have it on.
Chickpeas? C'mon.
lol
Ok...I see that your playing.
Chickpeas, he says. Haha.
Well, I'm glad we got that settled. You just stated that your being provocative and weren't really being serious. Now I know where we're at.
Done.
historic gold/silver
MONEY LAW
The Coinage Act of April 2, 1792
(1 Stat. 246)
Statute I.
April 2, 1792 Chapter XVI.--An Act establishing a Mint, and
regulating the coins of the United States.
THE DEVIL TRADE
THE BERNANK FOMC DEVIL TRADE
This is what I do when I get bored. Furthermore, for the TECHNICAL ANALYSTS I thought I add a little chart on the bottom right. Look at the part that says "WHAT DAT?" These folks who still read their JAPANESE CANDLESTICK CHEAT SHEETS would realize this is a nice HAMMER.
But, between you and I..... I don't follow that sort of RUBBISH. Anyhow... I am actually finishing my article tonight and tomorrow morning on THE CRITICAL FACTORS THAT WILL IMPACT SILVER.
So no more blogging for me.
hey Turd, i'm tellin ya........
this "Victor guy" is to be watched closely..........he fucking screams dis-info agent.. just a heads up. keep an eye on this guy and let me know what you think.......
@Hard Rain
Congratulations to your daughter on her accomplishment -- and to you, for having helped bring her here. While the national (global?) average seems to keep going down, making sure kids like these have a chance is one of the few worthwhile pursuits out there. I sure hope to be in your position a few years hence.
For every instance of incompetence, stupidity, sense of unearned entitlement out there, I am nevertheless continually amazed by the resourcefulness, dedication and talent that STILL exists. And this is in no small part due to the fellow Turdites I seem to spend all too much time with...
Consider making use of a cost-free, yet highly selective advertising platform for your staffing needs -- you may be pleasantly surprised:
Turdland Jobs Forum
Chickpea - -
Chick peas are quite valuable if they've been eating hallucinogenic mushrooms.
History of gold/silver ratio from SeekingAlpha, 2010
...
After Bretton Woods, the ratio fell to around 20 amidst the economic prosperity of the postwar era until Nixon abandoned the Gold Standard in 1971. As the price of the yellow metal floated, gold outperformed silver until the fallout from the 1973 oil crisis, and then for the remainder of the decade silver outperformed gold as the ratio fell. Restrictions on the private ownership of gold were lifted in late 1974.
Meanwhile, in part due to the restrictions on gold ownership prior to 1974, the Hunt brothers began to buy large quantities of silver beginning in the early 1970s. Their buying spree culminated with a mega-spike in the price of silver in late 1979 and early 1980, when it became known that they were gradually cornering the market. The gold/silver ratio hit a bottom of 16 at this time. In response to this, the Comex introduced “Silver Rule 7” in early 1980. Steep restrictions were placed on leverage and the use of margin when buying commodities.Immediately, the price of silver began to fall, culminating in a 50% drop at the end of March. The heavily leveraged Hunts were wiped out, and silver continued to fall even faster than gold, which itself crashed from $850 to $600 in just three months (refer to Charts 2 and 3, note the activity in 1980). By May 1980 the ratio was back at 40.
Charts 2 and 3: The Gold/Silver Ratios 1970 – 2009
For the duration of the decade and into the early 1990s, the ratio continued to rise because gold outperformed silver, but only because it did not lose as much of its value. While the ratio reverted back to its 20th century average by 2000, gold and silver did not bottom until 2001 and 2003, respectively. At that time, silver once again turned up and the ratio began to fall. This trend continued until the onset of the 2008 Financial Crisis. The 2007-2008 spike in the ratio provided a very attractive entry point for those who were in a position to take advantage of it.
...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/206897-the-historical-gold-silver-ratio-and-why-it-s-time-to-buy-silver
College
As a recent graduate, I'll give my opinion on these:
Silver As Money
Silver doesn't need to be treated as money to be valuable. I agree with Victor that the fact that gold's above ground supply remains constant is one of the benefits of gold as money vs. silver. The dependence on mining supply to fix the consumption of silver gives silver value. I don't expect to ever see silver used as a common medium of exchange again. I invest in silver because I don't expect supply to be able to keep up with demand given declining grades and increasing costs, and being able to hold it is nice (I can't hold other commodities in large quantities). I save in gold because that is money.
Everyone was watching porn..
The FED Does The U.S.
for the turdite's prep list
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1203647021/the-powerpot
Silver or funny money - -
Silver is and always has been money. Is debt money? I doubt it. More of a confidence trick. Fiat always fails, - silver and gold always fill the void. It's hard to believe this time will be any different.
Speech to the FED by Robert Wenzel - wow
I didn't see this posted.
___________________
I scratch my head that somehow your conclusions about unemployment are so different than mine and that you call for the printing of money to boost “demand”. A call, I add, that since the founding of the Federal Reserve has resulted in an increase of the money supply by 12,230%.
I also must scratch my head at the view that the Federal Reserve should maintain a stable price level. What is wrong with having falling prices across the economy, like we now have in the computer sector, the flat screen television sector and the cell phone sector? Why, I ask, do you want stable prices? And, oh by the way, how’s that stable price thing going for you here at the Fed?
Since the start of the Fed, prices have increased at the consumer level by 2,241% [3]. that’s not me misspeaking, I will repeat, since the start of the Fed, prices have increased at the consumer level by 2,241%.
So you then might tell me that stable prices are only a secondary goal of the Federal Reserve and that your real goal is to prevent serious declines in the economy but, since the start of the Fed, there have been 18 recessions including the Great Depression and the most recent Great Recession. These downturns have resulted in stock market crashes, tens of millions of unemployed and untold business bankruptcies.
I scratch my head and wonder how you think the Fed is any type of success when all this has occurred.
Let’s have one good meal here. Let’s make it a feast. Then I ask you, I plead with you, I beg you all, walk out of here with me, never to come back. It’s the moral and ethical thing to do. Nothing good goes on in this place. Let’s lock the doors and leave the building to the spiders, moths and four-legged rats.
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/04/my-speech-delivered-at-new-york-federal.html?
Victor is an dis informant... people!!
Victor is obviously a dis informant. Every time there is a 'important' action, date or piece of news that can affect the metals he show up not only to discredit gold but he does it specially with silver, you have to ask why, why silver?, well, all these trolls and dis info agents have an agenda, they get paid to do it and most likely they are writing shit from the offices of the big banks.(or directly from FED offices, since they are so desperate). For all the stackers out there, don't pay attention to Victor u other trolls when he discredit silver or gold, that is the way it is when things start getting seriously bad. Usually everything loss some value only to regain its track again, Silver is in fact the investment of the decade or the best investment in many decades. Silver losing 10, 5 or 15 bucks?, don't worry if you got the physical, be patient, keep the physical and forget about the nonsense Bernanke talks. Is better to sleep with the physical rather than cash these days. Think long term.
abreik
"I don't expect to ever see silver used as a common medium of exchange again."
I just found a silver quarter the other day. Silver was/is used as a common medium of exchange. The last 40 years are the anomaly. I must beg to totally differ.
Gold, Silver, Copper. Worked for the Romans, worked until 1971. Or 1913. Pick your poison.
Why would anyone want to risk
Why would anyone want to risk losing money in this casino when, if they truly believe as I do that we are at the cusp of an historic rally in both metals (maybe even platinum too), all they need to do is buy a ton of the real thing now and sell a little bit into the rallies? I mean, damn its not rocket science. Apmex or Provident etc will buy your metal. You tie up physical metal by doing it this way. It actually supports our cause because you aren't playing paper games. The banks cant phuck you on your stops by doing it this way either. If you have the money to gamble in the market you have the fricken money to trade in the real thing. [rant off]
regarding college
On the college discussion - it amazes me how many people graduate college (and highschool also) with "special distinction, highest honors, cum lade, etc. I was at a high school graduation a few years ago and 1/3 of the students graduated with some type of special honors. That stuff ought to be for the top 5 or 10%., not 33%. I was an industrial engineering student and alot of my classes were tough, but not many people flunked. You had to be a real slouch to fail.
Dollars aren't the only thing being inflated, grades are too!
I was in college from 1999-2003 and I would need a few thousand each year for student loans, but they would qualify me for, and give me like $10,000 each year in my checking account account to spend on anything I wanted. It was supposed to be school related but people bought laptops, cars, apartment rent, beer - whatever. I would always pay my extra balance back to build up credit, but I know some people that don't have much to show for that debt except maybe a 2003 Dell Laptop that is too slow to even connect to TF Metals report. What good is a computer if it can't do that!
I wish that I'd have known about metals and the raping of the dollar because the intrest rate on that money was <1% ! Could have gotten a nice stack going when gold still had three digit handle!
Maradona and victor
so you think victor is a disser.......heheheheheh....you must debate these sinister fellows head to head with your superior knowledge base and show them no mercy. Victor is no more a disser than you my friend. his posts are sometimes go against the grain of the bullish nature of this blog's participants but you should listen to victor instead of just throwing out your baseless accusations.....gl