Yes, It's Friday the 13th

YIKES! With all of the recent craziness, would anyone be surprised by some completely unexpected stuff today? So far, so normal. However, given the perverse senses of humor within The Evil Empire, we all should be on the lookout today.

So far we've dodged a couple of bullets. The CPI (ridiculous farce) came in a 0.3% and "right in line with expectations". Expectations of what? A wholly manipulated and completely useless measure of inflation? If that's what everyone was expecting, then great. But, again, ask yourself. Is price inflation really at just 4% annualized? Really? Have you been to the grocery store lately? Oh, that's right...food and energy are not included in the CPI. Of course! Why on earth would you want to include the two most basic essentials of life in the U.S.? Let's, instead, pay more attention to the cost of washing machines and blue jeans. What an absolute joke.

L'il Kim shot off his missile overnight, too. Oooops. No workie. Gotta wonder about this for a minute. It seems to be generally accepted now that the Stuxnet virus was planted by the U.S. and/or Israel into the nuclear weapons program of Iran. It is also generally accepted that the virus was able to slow and delay the Iranian program for months. Well, if it's possible to work a virus into Iran's nuke program, how hard can it possibly be to work a virus into L'il Kim's rockets? Or try this one on for size: If Iran can successfully "hijack" a top-secret U.S. drone and safely land it at an airbase within Iran, how hard would it be for the U.S. to "take over" the computer and guidance systems of L'il Kim's mission control? Anyway, it seems highly likely that Kim's premature combustion was sabotage, not simple incompetence and, if that's the case...this is far from over. What do irrational humans do when cornered/embarrassed/frustrated? They usually act even more irrationally. Stand by.

When I started typing this post, the metals were chillin and now they're getting smoked...well, a little. I'd drawn some support lines on these charts about an hour ago but I was hoping we wouldn't need them today. Nuts. Anyway, see the charts below for some support lines and let's hope they hold so that we are set up for a positive week next. (And does today's rally in the POSX on euro weakness really surprise anybody? If so, you must not have read the previous post.)

paper_4-13gold5.jpgpaper_4-13silv5.jpg

Three other things. First, I thought I might lift this paragraph from Uncle Ted's mid-week newsletter. Very interesting, from the point of view of perspective:

"I would remind you that these conditions have been a regular feature of the silver market over the past ten years (excepting the presence of HFT). While we have climbed sharply over the past ten years, that extraordinary price rise witnessed its share of sharp takedowns and prolonged periods of price stagnation. For example, the price high at $8 in 2004 wasn’t exceeded for almost two years, as was the price high of $15 in 2006 which wasn’t exceeded for almost as long. It took more than two years for silver to exceed the price highs of March 2008 of $21 (when JPMorgan took over Bear Stearns). Yet anyone who bought at the former highs and held on was rewarded, as will those who bought at last year’s highs. (Going back even further, the decade or more that silver traded between $4 and $5 was the biggest price doldrums of all; along with being a great time to accumulate). My point is that during the last three silver price doldrums, the gloom and negative talk was almost thick enough to cut with a knife, almost the same as now. Yet history shows us that the very best time to buy was during past price doldrums as was it also the very worst time to sell."

Next, an update on Spain from Gonzalo Lira. I'm also including a ZH link which discusses the surge in Spanish CDS. Ruht-roh, Rhaggy!

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2012/04/will-there-be-corralito-in-spain.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-cds-surges-just-shy-record-spanish-bank-ecb-borrowings-go-parabolic

Lastly, it's Friday so I'm looking forward to another CoT report this afternoon. For the reporting week, gold fell about $10 in price and OI contracted by about 3,800. Silver fell by about $1.60 and it's total OI fell by about 2,000 contracts. Based on this, I'd expect a modest "improvement" in the CoTs for both metals.

OK, that's all for now. I recorded another terrific podcast yesterday that I intend to post this afternoon so please be sure to check back later or over the weekend.     TF

102 Comments

tpbeta's picture

First

eerrr now I have to think of something to say.  Metals are kind of boring today. Thought the silver margin reduction would do something. Nice weather in London.

bellyacre's picture

Numero Dos

Numero UNO!!!! oops I mean Dos

indosil's picture

third i guess

third i guess

sdstacker's picture

4th?

looks like it

proformatrillionaire's picture

5th

We get a margin cut and the price still goes down? Time to buy a sleeve of eagles (silver).

El Gordo's picture

Off topic?

How Obama makes government sausage

Turd Ferguson's picture

BTFD

MODERATOR

I've been trying to get away from some of the very short term stuff...but...if anyone was looking for a place to BTFD and hope/pray for an FUBM, this would seem to be a good place to do it at 1664 and 31.90.

Good luck!

beinki's picture

The government will take of us. ;)

¤'s picture

Thanks

...for the update.

Regarding N. Korea and Little Kim. 

Get ready for a accusation from them about sabotage and a test of a nuclear bomb within a month or so or a naval attack of some sort on S. Korea. This is far from over.

Other then that....everyone have a nice Friday the 13th smiley

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/frivolity-forum

paulindoon's picture

Specially for Eric

Specially for Eric Original:

Jim Gaffigan - Bacon - KING BABY

koan's picture

Top 10

Surely not?

Edit: correct, not.

Dr G's picture

Lil Kim shooting blanks. So

Lil Kim shooting blanks. So sad.

I highly recommend the Gonzalo Lira article that Turd linked to. It was a good read and reminder about Argentina and how it was handled, as well as what is in store for Spain (and why we probably won't hear about them leaving the Euro until AFTER it has occurred).

The8thHabit's picture

@ BTFD

Hi Turd,

Thanks for the post as usual! Regarding your BTFD comment half-an-hour ago, I know it's too early to say, but so far it looks right to the penny in the money! Insider knowledge? LOL Thanks again for all you do!

The8thHabit's picture

@ Lil Kim shooting blanks

Yes, but she can be outdone by Nicki Minadinejad

SS121's picture

121n31?

The 2 links below are previous posts that detail how Silver, in our current silver market ('79/'80 to present), has thus far followed an ensample or pattern of times, dates, and events that correspond to Christ's life in the flesh.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/146995#comment-146995

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/151747#comment-151747

Silver is currently within the final 40-day period of the 33 year pattern.  If Silver remains consistent with the example, it will achieve a one-to-one (121) ratio with Gold on May 14th 2012. So let's see......

Today is April 13th

It's day 9 of 40

and the GSR is 52.04

Silver on the charts these days,..... appears all zig-zaggy, sort of "out of control" (their's anyway), but it really hasn't went anywhere.

And the Gold/Silver ratio has been staying around 52,.... definitely not on any type of trajectory that would arrive at a 121 GSR in the next few weeks.

So, there's Silver today, at least as watched from this perspective. Hope everybody is healthy and free to enjoy some beautiful weather on this mighty fine day!

Missiondweller's picture

Korean missile launch

I hadn't thought of the possibility of a virus but was thinking of the Boeing airborne laser. It was supposedly a program cut by Obama but its interesting to note that its been around a while and was meant to shoot down missiles in their EARLY BOOST FAZE. So if it was used the missile would appear to have "failed" in its first rocket stage.........just as it did.

If you've never heard of it, heres a video

OrangeAlert's picture

1665

Keep holding that 1665!!!  That would be a huge win for today in and of itself.

koan's picture

@AGnAU

How disappointing would it be if this came to pass but it was just a result of gold dropping rather than silver (or both) rising!?!

Wizard's picture

@Binzer on "sense amongst the bs" Video in last thread

I understand the thinking of the guy in the video, Do not agree with it but I understand it. He is missing a few key things in his rationalization,

1. His presentation is mostly based on the fact that the U.S. Dollar is still the reserve currency of the planet and is of any real value. Countries around the world are fleeing the Dollar in a massive way. Setting up direct deals with other countries instead of using the Dollar. When we no longer have the reserve currency of the planet, all of the perks of that position will be gone.

2. He very mistakenly makes the presentation that countries are not stock piling gold, when not only are countries repatriating their gold  back into their countries  (Venezuela) China going from the largest exporter of gold to one of the largest importers of gold and silver and even attempting setting up their own gold exchange. And the fact that a communist country was encouraging their population to buy gold and silver was amazing in and of itself. Along with large institutions buying huge amounts of gold. The University of Texas taking physical delivery of 1 Billion Dollars worth of gold. All of these things mentioned are just Facts, Not anything that was heard from some well known metals guy that the person making the video seems to have quite a grudge against.

3. Buying rental property with your gold to make an income stream is a good idea in normal times (The last forty years) but in times like these with the real chance of hyper-inflation happening, it might not be quite the good idea that he presents it to be. Sure you may get $2500.00 a month for one of those rental properties. But what what good is it when that $2500.00 will barely get you a loaf of bread. Even with the most elementary level understanding of hyper-inflation from historical events in the past (Weimar Republic and Argentina) someone would be able to get their head wrapped around the devastating effects of hyper-inflation on a society. This young man seems to think from his presentation that it could be pretty much party time. And not the daily act of just trying to feed and provide security for the family.

Wizard's picture

@Missiondweller

The airborne laser was the first thing I thought about this morning when I heard on the news that the Korean missile came apart shortly after the first booster separated. yes

agNau's picture

Remember this

Remember this guy?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DqHyIcsO8E 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_of_evil

Game plan layed out so the most ignorant are the only one's that don't see!

Left and Right are both a diversion,........and a mechanism to divide and conquer this country.
Polarization of the country along multiple lines.....
Party.
Class.
Race.
Etc.

Last straw for any that are still believing in this political system should have been the NDAA.
Voted in from ALL sides of the aisle.

"I can still smell the sulphur at the tele-prompter!"

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Interesting comment on money.cnn

Was reading an article on money.cnn.com about how there's going to be a veritable shitstorm of housing foreclosures in the near future -

http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/13/real_estate/foreclosures/

- when I happened upon this comment.  Thought it was worth re-posting here in its entirety.

chicagonettech, 54 minutes ago

Here's what has become a typical scenario in Illinois:

- Mortgage initiated with Countrywide six years ago. No problems on my end. Great credit - score of 780, legit income, verifiable.
- Broker tried as hard as he could to get me to mortgage for more than the house was worth so he could get greater fees and rebate me difference. I refused to do so.
- Audited broker settlement statement before closing and found more than $35,000 in hidden fees
- Put closing on hold while attorney reviewed.
- Broker kept insisting closing statement was "good as gold."
- Filed complaint with Attorney General of State of Illinois
- Countrywide flew auditor out to audit closing statement and documentation.
- $35,000 worth of closing costs suddenly "disappeared" from statement.
- never paid late
- always pay extra payment principal in addition to amount due, plus interest, every month

- Housing bubble bursts
- House once worth up to $500K bounces all over the place. At one point down to $160 - back up to $380, back down, ad nausea . . . still can't sit still on paper valuation.
- Countrywide caught playing games and starts to divest itself of "good assets"
- Mortgage sold to Bank Of America
- no problems with transition except I got locked out of all online access and payment history
- took more than ten calls to resolve online access - most of which were handled by non-English speaking support in India who were barely intelligible.
- Bank of America gets into trouble and divests itself of all performing mortgage
- Keeps only non-performing mortgages

- My mortgage sold to Greentree Lending in Minnesota
- Suddenly my due date changes and I start getting late notices
- Call Greentree and they said it was not their mortgage and I had to play by there rules
- Reminded them that mortgage was written under Illinois law and they had no right to change anything
- still kept getting late notices
- filed complaint with Illinois Attorney General
- suddenly everything got changed back to original mortgage terms by Greentree and late notices stopped. - was never reported on credit reports.

- decide to do lien and title search because we are looking to retire and, if we can sell our house for a reasonable price, will get the hell out of Chicago where the taxes and politics are about to collapse in on themselves. Reasons many and include:
- 60% murder increase over last year in just first 3 months of 2012
- Last budget doubles water bills over two year period
- Outstanding retirement funds will cause property taxes to double in 2017 so State, County and City can meet Federal mandate to pay monies into funds which were never paid in as monies were collected for past 30 years.
- 3rd Highest sales tax rate in nation
- discovered that Countrywide never filed lien against property on original mortgage
- discovered that Bank of America never filed lien against property
- discovered that Greentree never filed lien against property.

Essentially, my property, at least on paper, is free and clear - according to title search and lien recordings.

My personal opinion:

Gas will hit $10.00 per gallon before next summer is over – no matter who is in office
Unemployment is set to spike – 15 to 18%
Housing prices will plummet again and take 10 to 15 years to recover
Markets are all going to tank - disclosure: we are not invested in markets and hold bullion in bank vaults

Welcome to the New World Order

Marblesonac's picture

Indigostar7

We did shoot it down Probably used a ground based laser and bounced it off a satellite based mirror.

This article was from 1998:

http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/sbl.htm

Imagine what we can do now?

koan's picture

Let me guess

Bernanke is speaking now, and it's not good?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Well, shit

MODERATOR

I was up $6 on this pick and now I've given it all back. Nuts. Silver at $31.60 should be very close to a low/support.

But. of course, this is what sucks about trying to day-trade. The euro pukes over the Spain CDS situation and the WOPRs start selling PMs on POSX strength.

fut_chart.ashx_.jpg

Response to: BTFD
Mudsharkbytes's picture

Another typical silver disappointment

Looks like silver is right back where it was before yesterday's little spike.  No surprise there.  I'll be surprised if it DOESN'T fall substantially from here.

Xty's picture

re North Korea

It is possible that they are also at the end of an experiment in organizing society, and are broke and starving.   Even command societies sometimes fail at military projects.

exiledbear's picture

I'm going to laugh sooo hard

If we close at 1660 this week.

Dr G's picture

Bernanke speaks (giving a

Bernanke speaks (giving a speech) today at 1pm eastern at a conference. His topic is "Rethinking Finance". Could be another massive drop because he says (or doesn't say) something. It's full retard at this point.

They won't stop until they paint a nice big red candle for the week. Not a small one, but a nice big one. Red is their color.

Linky:  http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm

SRSrocco's picture

THAT NASTY EROI SHOWS ITS FACE AGAIN

Capex inflation, cooling prices raises tough questions for miners

Miners are bracing themselves for tough questions as they prepare to meet shareholders worried about continued high capex costs, when metals prices have cooled

Author: Clara Ferreira-Marques and Sonali Paul
Posted: Friday , 13 Apr 2012
 

Rio Tinto and other big miners preparing to meet shareholders over the coming weeks will face tough questions over ever larger and more capital intensive projects at a time when robust commodity prices have cooled.

Rio, which meets its London-based investors on April 19, has been in the spotlight over rising costs at Oyu Tolgoi, the flagship Mongolian copper-gold mine that it controls through its majority stake in Ivanhoe Mines.

A 513-page technical report - published two weeks ago by Ivanhoe but not publicised or officially endorsed by Rio - put the capital costs for one of the industry's most anticipated greenfield projects at $13.2 billion, up from $9.55 billion.

Costs for both the initial phase and the mine's expansion have risen, with the cost for expansion more than doubling to $5.1 billion

---------------------------------------------------

Can you imagine what mining CAPEX costs are going to be like in just a few years?

The massive OYU TOLGOI MINE in Mongolia is also a water hog.  It will use 920 liters of water a second.  They will be using (25) 220 ton haul trucks and that will increase to 56 haul trucks by year 17 of the mine. (LOL... if they can get diesel).  The mine will be processing about 150,000-160,000 tonnes of day of ore.  This is bigger than Penasquito in Mexico that has become a serious diesel hog.

The mine is located in a very Arid area in Mongolia where water is hard to come by.  This mine has the same reputation that Penasquito has in Mexico.  Both are making life difficult for the natives who live there. 

Children push a cart of water to their home in Khanbogd, Mongolia, the closest settlement to the Oyu Tolgoi mine. Environmentalists and activists warn that the giant mine in Mongolia, partly owned by Canada's Ivanhoe Mines, will make water scarce, forcing nomads and herders who live nearby out of their traditional lands.

Ain't nothing like PROGESS...aye?

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