<Yawn>
After all of the recent volatility, don't days like today just seem like a downer? I suppose we should be grateful for the respite...but...flat, rangebound days always tend to put me to sleep.
I wish I had some exciting chart news for you but I don't. From every angle, the metals appear to be finishing up the "right shoulder" of the current, 7-month, massive reverse head-and-shoulder bottom. The biggest drag of this is the timing. Take a look at the daily charts below and you can easily see that this final process could take weeks to complete. We could be well into May before the metals finally break higher and confirm the bottom. Until then, I guess we just have to be patient.
Though gold put in a nice day yesterday, it saw very little follow-through today. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad that gold is back above $1650. However, until gold breaks back above the short-term downtrend line on the hourly chart, there's no reason to get excited. Furthermore, until gold closes back above its 200-day moving average, the spec buying will not be sufficient to drive gold consistently higher. Again, for now, we yawn and wait.


Silver is nothing to write home about, either. In fact, it actually looks worse than gold, in the very short term. Though 31.00-31.50 will continue to provide support for silver, the failing momentum in the hourly chart paints a picture of further weakness. Since a drop to $30 or so would paint a nearly perfect, symmetrical reverse H&S on the silver chart, we might as well root for one. At this point, given the ugliness of the hourly chart, I'd say the chances that support holds here are no greater than 50/50. That said, IF silver does drop to the area around $30, you be crazy not to do some buying.


Just a few news items before I return to my afternoon nap. First up, this new report from ZH on the worsening fiscal situation in the U.S. No more QE? Rrrrrright.....
You may have already seen this but Mike Maloney of GoldSilver was on RT a few days ago and spent a half hour discussing metals manipulation with this hot, leggy chick. (I wonder if she's one of Putin's girlfriends?) Regardless, there's some interesting stuff here, particularly the part about South Carolina.
http://rt.com/programs/capital-account/maloney-manipulation-gold-silver/
Finally, our pal Jeff Nielson wrote something interesting yesterday. Post-MFG, anyone foolish enough to hold "allocated" metal within their U.S.-based brokerage account is probably too stupid to read and understand this piece but I'll link it here anyway, just for kicks.
http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/gold-commentary/25312-precious-metals-deja-vu-for-morgan-stanley
That's all for now. TF
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Comments
Silver Update 4/11/12 Wallstreet Looters
By BrotherJohnF
Silver Comex Inventory
Analysis by Endlessmountain
"If the long-term hasn't
"If the long-term hasn't occurred yet, how do you know they give a good prediction?"
This gets into the complicated equations that are used for these models. They are based on previous crash events translated into many squiggly lines, divided by many more squiggly lines and by the time you've finished you have a pretty reliable predictive model. To answer your question precisely though, you don't. But so far look at what Ivars has produced and tell me that out of all the possible charts one can create that those aren't pretty good. Honestly I can't believe how good they are, given the millions of variables that one needs to incorporate.
dr g
i dont get what you're getting out of critizing charts?
so you don't believe his charts? fine.
personallý I appreciate ivars work, he's bringing something to the table.
The humble Ivars - - -
Ivars in mind is a genius.He is embarrassed at me calling him this, because he is a very humble man. Ivars has the ability to distil a highly complex amount of random information into a simple essential format. The ability to look at things from beyond the ego is a rare gift. The concept of genius is not about intelligence.It is about expansion of consciousness into the realm of pattern recognition. Most of us tend to get distracted by information overload and emotion.
Ivars charts and Dr. G no understanding
Dr. G.: You have to understand this: Ivars himself has stated that he is not a trader nor a investment advisor, he just started doing some research on current event and its consequences in the near future. If you go to saposjoint.net you will realize that Ivars was discussing themes such as: "Quantum Physics", "Deconstruction of the electron", " Von Staudt derival of geometry from projective properties of space", etc...along with others very clever folks around the world. I mean, Ivars was in another world and I think he just wanted to take a break and play a little bit with some math so he came up with some nice charts. If you check on that site, he predict on March 2011 that silver would go to 45-50 and crash by April 2011 (Silver actually crash on May 1, how dare you Ivars to make such a brutal mistake of 1 day!!, sarcasm). Then, in the same prediction he said that silver will to the 40's and crash again by late summer and then sideways until April-May 2012. That is when silver should take off, however he said that his predictions was not perfect and silver could take off by May or September because all the elections theater. http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=40
Dr. G, if you are really a Doctor and like to study so you should take note of his work, link above. Now, you say that you know everything about silver (metals), oh yeah?, so, how come you seems so desperate about this correction?, it tells me you know little and have short time experience on this matter, if you were a old fella on this game you would know by now everything about the crash of 2008 and how silver and gold market have been way before 2008.
It is being stated by Turd also that this situation is about a coming financial collapse no only here in the States but all over the world and "a" way to protect our savings is on physical metals along others things like, water, food, etc....it is not getting rich in the short term, if you think that way, well you are been wrong my doctor. If you were a stacker you shouldn't be worry about a damn thing, but if you were trading paper, well that's different. Now, I wonder what does a Doctor doing in the papel game market?, is not your wages as a doctor enough for you?
Oh, and another thing, looks like you love the work that this guy Dan the fundamental view is doing ah?, Dan is just a jealous poor looser writing against something that we all know there is not repair http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2012/04/silver-whistleblower-goes-trading-tout.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheFundamentalView+%28The+Fundamental+View%29.
Thank you Turd for you spirit and site, Thank you Ivars for your patience and long term projections.
100 oz ASE's
A friend ordered 100 oz of ASE's from a metals trading outfit.
I guess he asked for delivery. The delivery took 2 weeks to get the 100 oz delivered.
When asked why, the company reported to him that "not many people ask for delivery" "usually they all just trade".
LOL
Then, I saw the posting up above from Buddha Princess about Comex inventory of silver.
ROTFL.
And not to ignore the APPL story
http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2012-03-30/inside-apple-s-foxconn-fac...
To all those APPL worshippers claiming Foxconn is great....how about a photo essay published by Bloomberg on Foxconn?
Janet Yellen
JSminesite noted Yellen said today something to effect that near zero interest rates should be extended to 2015.
first that means several think the economy is weak and or unemployment is not coming down
second--when plosser said rates might go up in 2012, PM sold off--anybody see where PM rallied when Yellen said low rates till 2015?
Third--this jawboning both ways is despicable. Just tells you how they feel about managing the economy.
Interesting interviews-Faber, Viedemer
Faber:
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Faber-massive-wealth-destruction/2012/04/04/id/434832?PROMO_CODE=E969-1
Wiedemer:
http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video47.cfm?promo_code=E969-1
Some extract from supporting article:
Faber: ‘Massive Wealth Destruction’ Coming, Well-to-Do ‘May Lose 50%’
The critical question over the next decade isn’t “where will my returns be highest?” but “where will I lose the least money?”
That, according to economist and investor Marc Faber, is the scenario facing investors today.
As the author of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report, Marc Faber is a well-known contrarian, earning celebrity status because of his ominous predictions.
So his pessimism during a recent appearance on CNBC wasn’t surprising for a man whose nickname is “Doctor Doom.” What was surprising was the level of “wealth destruction” he sees in the not-too-distant future.
Faber stated, “I think somewhere down the line we will have a massive wealth destruction. That usually happens either through very high inflation or through social unrest or through war or credit-market collapse.”
“I would say that well-to-do people may lose up to 50 percent of their total wealth.”
Faber points out that this bleak outlook for the United States has been caused by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve’s continuous printing of new money.
He says that the bailout and money printing will not create any long-lasting wealth or create healthy growth, and that the collapse will come on Bernanke’s watch.
While Faber’s prognostications are worrisome (especially for those who fall into the “well-to-do” category), they are hardly as alarming as the scenario laid out by another economist.
Without appearing on CNBC, earning celebrity status, or being known by a scary nickname, Robert Wiedemer did what Marc Faber couldn’t: He accurately predicted the economic collapse that almost sunk the United States.
In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists foresaw the coming collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, private debt, and consumer spending, and published their findings in the book America’s Bubble Economy.
But Wiedemer’s outlook for the U.S. economy today makes “Doctor Doom” sound like Mr. Rogers.
Where Faber sees a 50 percent loss of wealth for some, Wiedemer sees much more widespread economic destruction.
In a recent interview for his newest book Aftershock, Wiedemer says, “The data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation . . . starting in 2012.”
When the host questioned such wild claims, Wiedemer unapologetically displayed shocking charts backing up his allegations, and then ended his argument with, “You see, the medicine will become the poison.”
The interview has become a wake-up call for those unprepared (or unwilling) to acknowledge an ugly truth: The country’s financial “rescue” devised in Washington has failed miserably.
The blame lies squarely on those whose job it was to avoid the exact situation we find ourselves in, including Bernanke and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, tasked with preventing financial meltdowns and keeping the nation’s economy strong through monetary and credit policies.
At one point, Wiedemer even calls out Bernanke, saying that his “money from heaven will be the path to hell.”
Shocking Footage: See the eerie chart that exposes the ‘unthinkable.’
But it’s not just the grim predictions that are causing the sensation; rather, it’s the comprehensive blueprint for economic survival that’s really commanding global attention.
The interview offers realistic, step-by-step solutions that the average hard-working American can easily follow.
The overwhelming amount of feedback to publicize the interview, initially screened for a private audience, came with consequences as various online networks repeatedly shut it down and affiliates refused to house the content.
Bernanke and Greenspan were not about to support Wiedemer publicly, nor were the mainstream media.
“People were sitting up and taking notice, and they begged us to make the interview public so they could easily share it,” said Newsmax Financial Publisher Aaron DeHoog, “but unfortunately, it kept getting pulled.”
“Our real concern,” DeHoog added, “is what if only half of Faber and Wiedemer’s predictions come true?
That’s a scary thought for sure. But we want the average American to be prepared, and that is why we will continue to push this video to as many outlets as we can. We want the word to spread.”
Editor’s Note: For a limited time, Newsmax is showing the Wiedemer interview and supplying viewers with copies of the new, updated Aftershock book including the final, unpublished chapter. Go here to view it now.
Thanks
I did not realize so many people still have a look at my charts and have analyzed them for what is really there. It helps. Thank You also for nice comments. For myself, silver turning up in around June-September is kind of a critical point in all this, and temporary decoupling of gold from silver during summer-autumn 2012 ( first signs visible now-they can again decouple as they did in April 2011) .
The first thing happening as expected is : GSR which is temporarily (till June?) moving up as predicted for 1,5 months, but this indicator is in its early stages . If it continues for another 1,5 and than changes direction, it gives more support to both gold and silver predictions, since it is derived from them.
See my prediction on March 2 when GSR was at its lows at 49:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/137665#comment-137665
And GSR longterm prediction chart- see the little bump up in May 2012 (But it missed the previous dip by 2 months-so let us say see the little bump in May-July?):
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78041#comment-78041
Again, many thanks, I feel a bit embarrassed, but its pleasant:)
Thanks Ivars - - -
It is great to have someone of your caliber posting here at Turdville. Your friendship and wisdom, is valued by lots of good people here.
Europe
Links to the UK's Establishment newspaper can be tiresome, but these two articles from the Telegraph are worth a read.......
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/9198496/Spain-acc...
London Open
fwiw...very unusual price action.
re: London Open
Action has been VERY unusual over the last 2 days. Price has been in a band b/w 1655 and 1662 (June contract) while the ES and DX have had normal volatility.
One scenario is: EE capping and (several) strong hands buying dips. However this still does not really account for the very low range of $7.
Waiting, waiting, waiting
Tomorrow's payday. My bills are all paid, so if the PM's can hold off rising for one more day, I'll be going all in for this week, and maybe for next week as well. Keep hammering that price down, my new stack is not tall enough yet, especially after that unfortunate accident on the bridge where all my old stack flew out the window and into the bay. BTW, did you know that your insurance does not cover losses of this type?
Morning Toons
@ Turd...ahem...a different anaconda
If only...
And finally...
One more in honor of the owner of this site
If B.O.'s logo had a mind of it's own
CFTC public meeting on 18 April
Found this on SilverDoctors.com this morning. Interesting... Buy now or wait.....?
The CFTC has just announced a public meeting next Wednesday, April 18th to consider two final rules:
Final Rule on Further Definition of “Swap Dealer,” “Security-Based Swap Dealer,” “Major Swap Participant,” “Major Security-Based Swap Participant,” and “Eligible Contract Participant.”
Final Rule on Commodity Options.
The only thing that appears to be missing from the agenda is the actual definition of the word SWAP, which as our readers are likely well aware, is required in order to begin the 60 day grace period prior to the ultimate enforcement of the CFTC’s new position limits rule!
Perhaps the CFTC’s action to FINALLY get around to defining a swap and implementing position limits in commodities…specifically silver, is why our beloved Blythe felt the urge to appear on CNBC last Thursday to deny JP Morgan manipulates the silver market?
While we will remain skeptical of the CFTC until the day hard position limits are implemented, this is MONUMENTAL news for the paper futures silver market affectionately known as the CRIMEX. (more…)
The "more" does not seem to work
No dog in this hunt
"To all those APPL worshippers claiming Foxconn is great....how about a photo essay published by Bloomberg on Foxconn?"
I'm not particularly fond of AAPL, but if I'm forced to trust either Chinese Communists, or Bloomberg (crypto-Communist),
I'll trust the Chinese.
Keep moving along, nothing to see here...
Even a blind dog can see how unusual this trading is...except in precious metals where unusual is perfectly normal. Just ask the CFTC, they see nothing wrong with this picture and thousand others just like it.
One Month Anniversary
Blythe's silver claim
Reading that link to the silver stock report got me to thinking about the reasons one would hedge a silver position. If you are simply a mega-stacker who trusts JPM and believes AG is moving up, you would not hedge because it wipes out your profits. Only people in the business of making money WITH silver through the sale of it would need to hedge--miners who sell the stuff, industries that use it up, dealers that profit on the difference between buy and sell prices. If Silvertowne takes in 10K ounces of scrap over a week's time, they hedge with 2 contracts to protect that silver. They melt it and pour it into bars and sell them, making several dollars per ounce on the price difference. They do not want a three dollar drip in price to wipe out their profit. The hedge is unwound when they sell. Dealers and manufacturers are not in the business to speculate, thus they avoid any temptation to do so as part of their business model. Same with any industrial user.
The US mint is probably the largest silver manufacturer in the country. I can see their need to hedge. But nobody needs to hedge as much as JPM holds.
The financial elite like Blythe know that the sheeple do not understand their world, that they can claim whatever they like, throw in some financial jargon, and the sheeple will scratch their heads and wander away satisfied.
But most of you here knew all that...
Insightful comments
I was just wandering around the internet this morning and ran across this passage. Thought some of you might like to see it: http://silverstockreport.com/silvercoinproposal.htm
To best function as money, a monetary item should possess a number of features:
To be a medium of exchange:
It must be liquid, easily tradable, and with a low spread between the prices to buy and sell. A low spread typically occurs when an item is fungible.
It must be easily transportable; precious metals have a high value to weight ratio. This is why oil, steel, copper, water, or bricks are not suitable as money.
To be a unit of account:
It must be divisible into small units without destroying its value; precious metals can be coined from bars, or melted down into bars again. This is why leather or animals are not most suitable as money.
It must be fungible: that is, one unit or piece must be equivalent to another, which is why diamonds or real estate are not suitable as money.
It must be a certain weight, or measure, to be verifiably countable. This is why paper is not most suitable as money.
To be a store of value:
It must be long lasting and durable; it must not be subject to decay. This is why food items, expensive spices, or even fine silks, are not most suitable as money.
It must have a stable value and an intrinsic value, as with a luxury item; a scarce or rare commodity.
It must be difficult to counterfeit, and the genuineness must be easily recognizable. These reasons are why paper, or electronic credits, often fail as money.
For these reasons, gold and silver have been chosen repeatedly throughout history as the choice for currency for more societies and cultures and over longer time periods than any other items. Those societies embracing gold and silver invariably have prospered under what is often called a golden age.
After watching Viedemer video
I understood that I have to move my floating Euribor 1M + 1,5 mortgage loan to fixed rate , at least fixed for 5-10 years. I do not know if that is possible, to fix only part of longer term loan, but I shall try. Not bad to get a definite idea what to do for Yourself from 1 video.
Dr Jerome
Thanks for bringing that up. I was wondering if I was missing something here. Why would a brokerage firm need to hedge against a clients' position? Her wording was weird - she said that 'they' invested through JPM, and so JPM had to hedge. She also had just been asked about their trillion dollar profit, and then claimed the hedge was not about making money. If I buy some more Sprott through my brokerage, they don't go out and short silver. Just saying. It seemed to be nonsense, and so it was. The Wizard of Oz told more convincing lies.
And re her hair - I had the bad taste to go there the other day - I am also a well-aged blonde, and I don't have anyone getting me ready for TV, and with a hair-brush and some luck I look way better, even waking up camping. It takes a lot of liquid calories to give your hair that 'Man from Glad' look - or some other combo of bad, bad living. And she must have gazillions of dollars. One of the things I really do miss from my previous life of relative riches is the trip to the salon. And my $50 haircuts were lovely - it makes no sense. She must be under enormous stress. And I judge men equally shallowly, so no biting.
p.s. Dr G - I share your frustration with Ivars' charts and methods.
noobish question, vertical jumps in the chart
Whats happening to the silver price in this chart? It looks like the price is jumping vertically down to 30.94 then rebounding back to where it was almost immediately, repeated a few times. I see this fairly often. Is it s glitch in the goldprice website? or is it some real dealing? can anyone enlighten me?
Thanks