Thirty Pieces of Silver

What's a reach around?

I don't post much here.  I have my own analysis methods that do involve quite a bit of TA, and I believe this is a good buy point for silver.  By the end of the year, this price point will have a lot of people saying "I wish I would have bought back then".  That said, we all understand that there is at least some manipulation going on in the worldwide market, and price discovery is indeed inhibited.

I buy various forms of bullion and 90% US silver.  Since some of my silver bullion purchases are for business use, we do not make a profit if we hit the wrong buy points (or at least it's more difficult).  We're hoping that prices stay well under $32/oz before we make our next buy.

The silver we buy for personal stacking is another matter altogether.  For that purpose, I reiterate that this is an attractive buy point.  We're long holders of physical, so price dips are not a concern nor do we get into rant mode about the price swings.  If you are an options trader, you are in heaven right about now with this volatility.

As for the occasional beatdowns Turd receives, I think some of this is related to people's inability to recognize the difference between short term technical analysis and long term trending/potential.  They get the two mixed up quite frequently.  Plus, people also fail to remember their investments are ultimately their own freaking choices, and like to lay blame when they take a "loss".  Ultimately they need to man up and just say they made their own bad decision.  Sorry, whiners get to me.

Turd, I'd like to offer some advice.  Stay the course.  Concentrate your efforts on the excellent technical analysis you are known for and tone down the rants about manipulation.  Manipulation - real time or anticipated -  can be included in TA, by the way.  Those trends equal predictability which in turn equals profit potential.  Thanks for all that you do.

Added after posting - just saw the announcement about the addition of services by Andrew M.  That is exactly what I'm talking about - combining the analysis around the manipulation into a profit potential via smart trading.  Excellent!

SRS, I read your article on tech analysis and have enjoyed your previous ones.

The figures on declining ore grades are ominous and the fact that silver production declined by 15.5% at Mexico's largest silver mine is scary. You say miners are going to hit a wall in their production due to availability of diesel. I also noted what you said about Silver Wheaton reducing its reserves by 144 million ounces or whatever it was.

How can we experience reductions in silver reserves of miners despite increasing demand, since current energy costs are making it too expensive to mine the stuff,  and the price of silver stays stable? That can't hold for long, can it? Are we not reaching a point where the price of silver is already too low to encourage mining, if companies like Goldcorp which are streaming their silver to Silver Wheaton, are REMOVING silver from their reserves?

Given the trends you are seeing, shouldn't current cost pressures put quite a large floor under the price of silver if miners' reserves are declining? Have you projected any kind of calculations to see what diesel or costs of mining will do to alter reserves in the aggregate? You'd probably know more than any of us.

At some point, something has to give. And the energy price won't give, so the silver price will have to rise substantially if we still want to use silver in 5 years time.

If $125 Brent and $31 silver causes 144 million ounces of silver to no longer be considered reserves, i.e. economically mineable (and that's just with regards to what Silver Wheaton had claim to), what will $150 Brent and $31 silver do? Cause another 100 million ounces to no longer be economically mineable? 200 million? 400 million? What about $200 oil? How many ounces become unmineable then?

You do good work, thanks for sharing all your stuff.

IS that what happened on Tuesday afternoon? Got it.

Ben looks good with a shaved head.

at some point, lord knows when, the miners are going to take off and become the most profitable part of the market. I am drooling to buy options on many of them and am fighting huge urge to pull trigger now.

I figure-probably like many--there will be plenty of time to make money on that play. But the initial thrust up should be something.

In 2008 they started moving up -then when QE was announced I think miners had a 10% up day. and then hui ran to 640-now what 440?

I think it was 160 before the run up started in 2008.

Watch carefully, be careful, but that's gonna be a winner-keep powder dry and be ready to move.

Had to hat tip that!

As John the Baptist said, Jesus was the Lamb of God...and he LITERALY fulfilled the requirements of the passover lamb.

While certain religious systems have stripped the Jewishness out of Biblical Christianity, so much can be learned from God's appointed times, or feasts. 7 of them in total, Christ fulfilled the first 3 during his death, burial and resurrection. The Holy Spirit fulfilled the 4th on Shavout or as most of us know it--Pentacost. The Bible shows us that these fulfillments happened on the SAME EXACT DAY as these 2,000-year Jewish Hollidays (feasts).

But just looking at the events of the Passover week, Jesus' literally followed the same path of a Passover lamb:

Palm Sunday/Lamb selection day...the day the lambs are led into Jerusalem by the High Priest...same day Jesus enters Jerusalem and overturns the money changer's tables. Passover is one of 3 feasts that required pilgrimage to Jerusalem and many of the pilgrims had to buy their lambs after days and miles of travel, hence the money changers. These banksters would charge crazy mark-up fees on the lambs themselves, and also gouge the exchange rate.

Monday-Tuesday...lambs must be without blemish. Jesus was tested at the temple during this time by the Pharisees and they couldn't find any fault. After challenging Him with many questions, they eventually gave up in disgust.

Tue Evening/Passover Meal...Traditional Passover meal ate the evening before the lamb's sacrifice. The real Lord's Supper where 4 symbolic glasses of wine are drank and 1 of 3 pieces of bread (the middle one) are broke after the first 2 glasses of wine. The 3rd glass is the "Cup of Redemption" where Christ says this (Cup of Redemption) is (symbolic) of my blood...we know it's the 3rd because the bread was broke before this. It's not the 4th because Christ says he won't drink again until it's with us at His 2nd coming. He's later betrayed in the garden and handed over to the Roman authorities.

Wednesday morning/Sacrifice day/Crucifixion...Christ hung on the cross around 9am, first lamb killed around 9am...Christ dies around 3pm...last lamb killed around 3pm. Christ's body is a temple...blood and water flowed from Christ's side...blood and water flowed from the "blood channel" out of the side of the temple and into the Kidron valley. Christ's body must be prepped that night because Thursday is the Passover Sabbath and Feast of Unleavened Bread.

Sunday morning/Feast of Firstfruits/The Resurrection. Per Leviticus 23:10-11, Feast of Firstfruits began the morning after the weekly sabbath...Sunday morning. The tomb is found empty.

http://www.jesusfirst.org/free-downloads/articles/timeline.pdf

Google "Christ in the Passover" for more.

Maranatha!

Please be advised to tune your viewing channel to the new Podcast by our Mayor, Turd, for this important announcement!

Speaking of martyrs, Kurt Cobain died 18 years ago today. Here's a little piece they covered called The Man Who Sold the World....hmmmm, maybe prophetic Bernanke reference??? You decided:

I could not have said it better.  Thanks for completing my short view. 

They would CRUSH the housing industry.  C-R-U-S-H it.

Low interest rates increase housing prices.  High interest rates decrease housing prices.  Because the average home buyer is not really paying you XXX thousand dollars for your house.  He's paying ShysterBank X,XXX dollars each month and the higher that interest rate goes, the less principle he can pay off, the less he can pay you.

For instance.  Let's say someone has a home for sale for $300,000.  Let's pretend that reasonable standards are used and there's a 20% down payment (unlike the woman who bought my condo last year through fha with a . . 3.5% down payment!).  So, the buyers are paying you $240,000.

At a ludicrous 4% interest rate fixed over 30 years, the buyer's payment is $1,145.80

So, let's say that that's how much the buyer can possibly spend per month.  Well, what happens if the applicable interest rate is 6%?  Well, that monthly payment would go to $1,438.92.  Yikes, what a difference.  So, let's go back and figure out how much of a mortgage our hypothetical buyers could pay off if they had to stick to that $1,145.80 payment at various interest rates.

At 6% those buyers can only pay back a principle of $191,000, not 240K

At 8% those buyers can only pay back a principle of $156,000!

At 10% those buyers can only pay back a principle of $131,000!

The overall calculation of what price you can get for your house is a little messy because those buyers still, presumably, have that 60K down payment so even at a 10% interest rate environment they can pay $191,000 total.  But house prices have to go down around 1/3 to be accessible to the same strata of the market if interest rates go up to 10%. 

Bernanke would obliterate the housing industry if he allowed interest rates to go up as part of a pursuit of some sort of pyrrhic victory against commodities.

Here is the latest - complete with a movie preview..

Letters to CFTC etc

These bought and paid for ass wipes do not deserve any respect, so I try to write a cool business like letter to complain that our elected govt and their toadies will not uphold the law etc but the bile chokes me right about the dear surghh!!! bit

I think we should line up at their meetings and public appearances and just laugh at them, make some appropriate donkey brays and monkey chatters - can,t be arrested (yet) for laughing at them, every time they honk about how they will chase the crooks etc no words needed

They are so comfortable in their elitist status rocks and stones don't hurt them but being laughed at ridiculed and  jeered off their perches -  now that will burn their asses 

Hee haw Heehaw!!

Saw it with my own eyes and heard it with my own ears.

"There ain't nothin' dirty goin' on."

Making for a 4 day weekend?

Surely they would not launch a raid over Easter weekend! 

Yes, London is closed on 4/6 AND 4/9. That, coupled with BLSBS, sounds like a prime time for a kick in the proverbial metal nads.