Thirty Pieces of Silver

In the Christian tradition, today is Holy Thursday, the beginning of the Easter Triduum. In the U.S. market tradition, Good Friday signals the start of a 3-day weekend. So, here we are, it's only Thursday but this is the last trading day of the week and tomorrow brings the BLSBS. Oh, boy. I hope you're ready.

As stated in the previous post, I hate being wrong. I have also grown to hate big down days due to the predictable appearance on this site and other outlets of the disinformation trolls. Let's see, gold is now at $1625. Oh boo hoo hoo. The same price it was at last back in January and back in August. Oh, the humanity! "Gold is terrible", they scream. "Gold is going back to the triple digits", they exclaim. Whatever. Anyone foolish enough to fall for this nonsense deserves their place in the pen with the rest of the sheep.

I could cite example after example of BS disinfo but, for today, let's just take one: The notion that, like the 1980s, gold has peaked with inflation and is about to be wrung out lower while equities and other paper investments spring forward. The folly of this argument is the utter lack of historical perspective. Thirty years ago, the level of U.S. government deficit and debt was just a miniscule fraction of what it is today. This fact alone allowed Fed Chairman Volcker the luxury of temporarily raising the federal funds rates to a peak of 20% in June of 1981. If The Bernank were to accomplish this today, of course gold would crash...and so would everything else. But, the key here is, he can't. The Bernank is squarely inside of a box of his own making. As stated ad nauseam, interest rates cannot be allowed to rise. Under no circumstances. No way, no how. Higher rates simply accelerate the unraveling of The Great Ponzi. Disarmed without this rate hiking "tool", The Bernank is left with only one option: Quantitative Easing, or, put more simply, the creation of new money which is used primarily to fund the U.S. federal deficit. Without this new money/demand, rates would have to rise to the point where "natural/organic" buyers would emerge and, needless to say, the 10-year note would no longer be 2.5%. Anyway, I could go on and on but I won't. The main thing you need to know is that there is no conceivable way that the U.S stands on the doorstep of an 80s-type recovery. It's simply not happening. Pressure to keep rates low will lead to further devaluation of the dollar. Further devaluation of the dollar leads to further highs in the precious metals. Period. End of story.

Now, let's get to the charts. After a week such as this, I suppose I could give you all sorts of charts with pretty, multi-colored lines all over them. Instead, here's the only chart that matters. As long as this trend remains intact, everything from Labor Day to today is simply noise.

paper_4-5amgoldw.jpg

And here's an hourly chart of gold. Note that yesterday's low is right near where the long-term trendline resides on the chart above. Clearly, a move back above 1630 would be a positive first step.

paper_4-5amgoldh.jpg

The silver charts are interesting, too. First, on this long-term chart, note that patience is clearly going to be required for a bit longer, maybe well into the summer. However, you'll notice that not only is the long-term trendline near $26, there are three, separate bottoms at the number, too.

paper_4-5amsilvw.jpg

On the short-term silver chart, notice that yesterday's decline bottomed out at almost the exact same point where it bottomed on March 22. For now, this is very encouraging and gives us an area to watch for a possible floor/buying opportunity.

paper_4-5amsilvh.jpg

Just a couple of odds and ends before I wrap this up. First, in Uncle Ted's mid-week update he referenced the Enforcement Division Director of the CFTC, a man named David Meister. Ole Meisterbrau is, apparently, a pretty important guy within the Division of Eunuchs. So far, I've not advocated emailing anyone at the CFTC regarding the 3.5-year, ongoing silver manipulation investigation. However, in the holiday spirit, maybe it's time to start. Rather than filling the inboxes of Gensler or The Mullet, maybe we should all drop a note to Meisterbrau. Let's all ask him for a personal update on the status of the ongoing investigation. Perhaps he could even offer some guidance as to when it might be completed. All I ask is that you do this politely and refraining from showing the contempt that I have shown above. Mister Meister (say that out loud, I guarantee you'll laugh or at least smile) can be reached at dmeister@cftc.gov

Here something interesting. The author of the article linked below is a Turdite. He sent it to me a few days ago and, upon review, I thought you might enjoy it, too. It speaks to dollar weakness and crude oil. There are several other Turdites whom I'm sure will have some considered opinions on the validity of the thesis. I look forward to reading the comments. http://acminc.com/opt-out

Lastly, at around noon eastern I will be posting a new podcast that you should be sure to listen to. It is extremely important because of the idea presented as well as the "gravitas" of the presenter. I will make it a "sticky" for the entire weekend. Please make the time to listen.

As I close, I see that the metals are actually UP this morning. What a treat! I hope everyone has a fun and relaxing holiday weekend. I'll try to start an "open thread" for the weekend tomorrow, once we see the latest BLSBS.   TF

p.s. Since this is Holy Thursday, I thought it appropriate to share the video below. As you know, The Turd is a long-time, devoted fan of U2. The song below comes from the incomparable 1991 album Achtung Baby. You may be familiar with the disc and this track but did you know the meaning of it? The lyric is written from the perspective of Judas Iscariot and the events of 1979 years ago today. Knowing that, you should give this song a fresh listen. I think you'll find it interesting.

p.p.s. "Mister Meister"! That seriously cracks me up!

104 Comments

waxybilldupp's picture

A first trifecta!

Awesome

Silver Meddler's picture

Still Waiting

Everything is at the point where I don't want to buy, but I'm not getting rich either. I'm in limbo. indecision

Island Guy's picture

First?

No way?  Am I first.  And I read the posting too!

Istack's picture

On the Dip

Now is a good time for stacking.

Patrancus's picture

earlybird

earlybird gets the worm

Dr G's picture

Geez, site is acting crazy

Geez, site is acting crazy for me. Won't load, getting 303 error messages. Generally slow. Another DOS attack building?

Remember, the wise men brought a gift of gold and He was betrayed for silver. Precious metals, indeed.

achmachat's picture

30 silver shekels

or around 15 ounces of silver ;-)

printmemoney's picture

Hit piece on silver by cnbc

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46964557

This is bullish.  IMO

10th

SRSrocco's picture

NEW ARTICLE AND STAB AT TA

Silver’s Trend & the Death of Technical Analysis

After writing my post here on Turd's blog yesterday, I decided to do a brief article from inspiration of the past several trading days.  I really believe short term technical analysis is dead.  That doesn't mean I don't have respect for a few of the better ones as I mentioned in the blog comment.

I give a lot of credit to ya Turd for putting out this blog every day.  My article is not focused at you at all, but rather the likes of Clive Maund and Jim Sinclair as well as others.  This is how I see TECHNICAL ANALYSIS from the help and guidance learned from CLIVE MAUND:

The article also discusses the 10 Year Trend of Silver which I already wrote about in yesterday's blog piece.  Furthermore, I give an update on my next two articles.

Here is a link to the article:  http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver%E2%80%99s-trend-death-technical-analysis

RTMoney's picture

Keep Calm

Dr G's picture

I recall that a "piece" of

I recall that a "piece" of silver was actually 1/10th oz of silver. So 30 pieces would be a mere 3 oz of silver.

Alternatively, they were likely Tyrian shekels, which would equate to about 1.5 troy oz of silver.

achmachat's picture

@Dr G

in the early times, a shekel was a unit of weight for silver and gold coins, and the most common ones were 14 and 17 grams.

That's half a troy ounce.

Ferd Torgerson's picture

Gold Up; AUY Down

While gold is up about .69% per Kitco right now, Yamana Gold (AUY) is down about 1.35% on no news.  Watched the same thing earlier this week.  Gold was up, AUY was down.  Couldn't figure it at the time.  Then came the smackdown in gold.

Wonder if the same thing is setting up for today?  Note that GLD is up a little.  Anyone else noticed a pattern with regard to gold and the miners this week?

TIA

Ferd

¤'s picture

Thanks...

...for the update and perspective.  Appreciate it!

We're stuck right in the beginning phases of a market disconnect that is changing tack out of desperation and MOPE on a grand scale. We haven't seen anything yet.

Santa Jim has his usual interesting commentary on what's going on.

April 4, 2012, at 12:59 pm
by Jim Sinclair

Dear Extended Family,

Not one pro, not even Yra who is close to the establishment, believes that the action of all markets were a true price interpretation of the FOMC notes yesterday.

Today and yesterday was the product of five gold banks showing the market who in their opinion is boss. It was aimed directly at the confidence in gold.

These gold bank traders are legends, who are the present rulers of the universe, owners of Washington and answer to no one, even to a God. Well, in their mind they are at least.

I really think ego has overcome the profit motive in the last two days. This changes nothing as to where gold is going in 2012 and beyond. It just makes trading impossible and charts useless, leaving only international fundamentals that will not be MOPEd away to make the final determination of the gold price.

It coils the spring in the market even tighter than physics will allow, making the break out to the upside when it comes something to behold.

If there is only one lesson you take away from here, it is that margin is a death wish when the head trader at one major gold bank can command the short term action of the gold and silver market. Consider what can happen to gold when 5% of today’s investors wake up to the economic and statistical charade the markets are today.

Regards,
Jim

tpbeta's picture

1980 surely

1980 years ago today not 2021. I know the trolls say you can't count but that's going a bit far.

Straying From the Flock's picture

Blood in the streets

Americans would riot if interest rates were jacked up to 20%.  End of story.  Most cannot get a loan with rates under 4%, for those with outstanding credit, and you know how many Americans have outstanding credit.  Would you pay points to reduce your interest rate?  Great, we accept gold, silver, and blood.  Please take a number and go to the back of the line.

Zero hedge just put an article up about the same headline on Bloomberg for the last four reporting periods of unemployment propaganda.  It is worth a look, even if only to have a good laugh.

Stack faster.

RGD

Patrancus's picture

The 80's are

The 80's are not analogous as inflation was not actively being covered up by the minions of manipulation, and Volcher was not the Bernank. We have a completely different game being played with a new set of rules that are modified as the game is played out. Today inflation has to be part of the cover-up, because if inflation were to be allowed to be covered in the mainstream media as is used to be ,(misery index), interest rates rising as was the case with the Volker, would be the solution to wringing the inflation out of this economy, though the big difference today is that the debt has been allowed to grow to unmanageable proportions, hence any rise in interest rates today,  say too double digit levels as was the case in the 1980's, would cause a cataclysmic implosion of this economy. I'm afraid that these so called by the mainstream the exalted experts, this time have put us in a position that can only end one way, it is just a matter if pressure and time. keep stacking.

¤'s picture

Crude but illustrative...

%20%28Deutsche%20Bank%29

343576-132488594020339-Plan-B-Economics_

343576-132488664481302-Plan-B-Economics_

LOUP-GAROU's picture

Thanks

Thanks Turd, up days down days  don't bother me much! talking heads and msm rant on pm's just goes to show you that we are doing the right thing by stacking. Have you every caught someone in a lie? most of the time they get defensive and mad as hell! kind of like ben and his crew of misfits are doing now! 

Gramp's picture

Dedcent Write Up Here On Japan

per

restarts

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's government is rushing to try to restart two nuclear reactors, idled after the Fukushima crisis, by next month out of what experts say is a fear that surviving a total shutdown would make it hard to convince the public that atomic energy is vital.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and three cabinet ministers are to meet for a third time on Friday to discuss the possible restarts of the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors at Kansai Electric Power Co's Ohi plant in Fukui, western Japan - a region dubbed the "nuclear arcade" for the string of atomic plants that dot its coast.

Trade minister Yukio Edano, who holds the energy portfolio, could travel to Fukui as early as Sunday to seek local approval for the restarts, Japanese media said.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

More here... http://news.yahoo.com/japan-minister-ask-nuclear-reactor-restart-media-012326275.html

printmemoney's picture

Trader Dan

Used to say that Hedge Funds (I think) would go long bullion and short the miners.  I'm not sure if that relationship is still in tact.  He wrote on the subject probably about a year ago, but I haven't heard him mention it in a while.

goldenbear's picture

QE3

On weeks like this I like to think about the big picture... might help some others as well. I think that the powers that be have duped the metals community. Presumably we're here because we want to be responsible with our money and have some insurance out of the system. But now sound money people are hoping and wishing for the FED to bring QE3 sooner. I know, I know, it's coming. But I think something has gone wrong when sound money people are hoping for it to happen. Don't worry too much about buying too high and having none to buy dips. And don't stress about not having FRN's to do your day to day things. Just unload some if you have to. In the end, whenever that is, having some sound money will more than make up for losing 20% over the last year. Think about it... QE3 is not going to make our world better. With or without insurance. I can't imagine any of us laughing our way to the bank when our insurance begins to pay out. But it's spring. The powers that be have decided to "delay" QE. I think we should enjoy today. Prepare. Go outside a little. Enjoy your family.

Be careful what you wish for. It is seldom what we imagined it would be.

On a side note, Sinclair is now quoting silver prices on his page... never thought I would see the day! Better late than never.

Dr G's picture

@achmachat, probably 15 grams

@achmachat, probably 15 grams by weight, but not 100% silver. Likely not above 80% silver. So junk :)

Turd Ferguson's picture

Well lets see

MODERATOR

The Church teaches that Christ was 33 when he died. 2012-33 = 1979.

Duh...dumdum Turd. Moving too fast again. Duly noted and corrected. Thanks.

Response to: 1980 surely
NW VIEW's picture

Jr. Metals & Resurrection Sunday

Mr. T.F.: Thanks for the great update.  It appears to many of us that it will take "big medicine" to fix the prices in the jr. P.M.'s.  Who wants to jump into any of them knowing the EE can and will raid the P.M. anytime they want?  If some of the P.M. stocks would start a  dividend,  those stocks would rise and become more stable.  (jmo)

Holy Thursday and Good Friday  are days celebrated by many in the modern era,  but for many we have concentrated on  (1) The festival of Passover -fulfilled by the Lord on the Cross, (2). Feast of First Fruits - fulfilled and known as Resurrection Sunday.  Understanding these events helps to understand future seasons.  John 11:25

achmachat's picture

@ Dr G

the ancestor of constitutional silver ;-) 

tpbeta's picture

Let's get pedantic for Easter

Well Christ was born in 4 BC, so 1983 years ago?  I know, I know, STFU

Dr G's picture

On weeks like this, I like to

On weeks like this, I like to think about the Seychelles.

ivars's picture

@Dr G- USD and EUR

"If the past several years have taught us anything, it's that the POSX and the EUR can live on indefinitely through MOPE and SPIN and printing."

Well for USD I would give some more years, for EUR only thing we have learned in the past several years is that it can live with MOPE and SPIN and printing for several years. Definitely not indefinitely.

dropout's picture

The Three Amigos

"Mister Meister" brought charges against the Royal Bank of Canada on Monday, stating "Today's action should make clear that the CFTC will not hesitate to bring charges against even the most sophisticated market participants who unlawfully exploit the futures markets for their own gain". For alleged price fixing in the FX sector.

On top of this, Obama has crapped all over his north and south counterparts in the NAFTA trifecta. Blocking their desire to join the eight nation Pacific rim trading block. Free trade? Not much. This comes on the heals of Obama blocking the Keystone pipeline proposal, then flip-flopping his decision.

"Mister Meister's" charges on Monday were the last straw for the Canadian's. They are REALLY pissed! 

Harper informed Obama at the "Three Amigos" summit, that the US will now have to pay the world market price for Canada's oil, instead of the cut rate deal it was paying before. Canada and China are now closer then ever to signing a comprehensive energy deal.

I guess what's sauce for the gander is gravey for the goose! Get ready for even higher gasoline prices. 

You don't shit on friends and expect a reach around too! 

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