Q12012 Is A Wrap

Well, 2012 is already 25% over. Where the heck does the time go? And why does it feel like it has been such a lousy quarter? The dirty, rotten scoundrels at the Comex will do that to ya.

Gold ended 2011 at $1569. Even with all of the tosses and turns of Q1, gold is trading at $1665. This is a YTD return, so far, of 6.12%. Hmmmm. Why is that number of interest? Well, we are 1/4 of the way through 2012 and if we continue at a pace of 6%/quarter, we end up with another 25% gain on the year. Imagine that. Does all of this current suppression/management/manipulation/capping make a little more sense in that perspective?

Silver began the year at $27.96 and stands, at this instant, at $32.50. This represents a 16.25% return for Q1. Again, though it feels sort of lousy right now, if I had promised you $32.50 by 3/30 back on 12/30, many of you would have fallen over dead laughing. The lesson here is: Keep the faith. The trend is inexorably higher.

And one more thing. There seems to be a larger than usual number of "turd bashers" around here lately. Comes with the territory but I'd like to point out two things:

  1. Though most are honestly disgruntled at the current "correction", keep in mind that this site and others are undoubtedly utilized by The Cartel Department of Intelligence to spout disinformation and doubt. Some "trolls" are simply here to do their job...that is to spread fear amongst The Good Guys.
  2. Along those lines, there seems to be a movement afoot by some posters to convince you that I'm not worth reading anymore. But what, exactly, am I currently wrong about? I sense a general line of thought that espouses that The Turd has lost the edge and is no longer useful. I don't know...maybe that's true. However, what about the general forecasting through Q1 was so incredibly off base. I warned about "red flags" in silver with the rising lease rates. I warned about significant Cartel resistance and a "Battle Royale" at 1800 and 36. Once the "correction" began, I quickly stated that silver could fall to 31 or even 30 while could might fall as low as 1600. I jumped the gun a bit on the bottom three weeks ago at 1680 but quickly recanted that with the "I Suck" post. My current and final "bottom call" of 1640 in gold is looking just fine and hasn't been seriously threatened all week.

Next, I thought I'd reprint a comment I tucked into the previous thread late yesterday. A reminder: Not every piece of information deserves its own post or update so I often add comments to the current thread in real time. Please be sure to scan the comments for updated information. To make this convenient for you, my comments are always set off in yellow, so as to easily catch your eye. This will save you time if you are simply scanning the comments, looking for any additional input from me.

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 29, 2012 - 3:46pm.
Just had a brief email exchange with Winston where I shared with him my thoughts on the OI numbers. He concurred and passed along three nuggets:
1. Today's spike down was simple bid-pulling manipulation intended to suck in a few more spec  shorts. The new shorting was so extensive that April gold traded all the way down to a $2 backwardation with spot earlier today.
2. Large physical bids at 1655 spot and some large sovereign bids closer to 1650.
3. He expects a short-covering rally on the Comex tomorrow that will continue into next week as Q2 begins.

The nice rally we had overnight has all but disappeared into the London pm fix this morning. Oh well. I still expect...and I imagine Winston does, too...that the metals will rally through the afternoon today and will have a strong initial week of Q2, also.

One last thing about the OI numbers, they really are unusual and unusually bullish. As you might imagine, I'm not the only "grizzled veteran" who thinks this way. Check out this post from "Buffalo Dave" yesterday:

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2012/03/tick-tock.html

Here are your PM charts, complete with updated smiles. Whether or not these "bowls" or "cups" work out exactly within the formation matters little. What does matter is that both metals clearly appear to be basing above their "correction" lows. Higher prices are coming.

paper_3-30amgold.jpgpaper_3-30amsilv.jpg

Next, just a word or two about crude. We first discussed the possibility of "gunning the shorts" back on Wednesday. Here's a reprint of the chart from that day:

paper_3-28amcrude_0.jpg

Well, lo and behold, look what happened. I wouldn't necessarily fear this drop as it ended right where predicted, above $102. Crude may drift around here for a few days...between 100 and 102...but I sure don't think it's headed much lower. Maybe you think otherwise. That's fine. But maybe you should check the headlines.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/28/israel_s_secret_staging_ground

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4209387,00.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-china-iran-syria-idUSBRE82T0D420120330

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-saudi-usa-clinton-idUSBRE82T0OC20120330

paper_3-30amcrude2.jpgpaper_3-30amcrude12.jpg

Lastly, there's not a lot of talk about The Pig these days. It certainly looks, however, that that is about to change. Ole Pigatha is beginning to perch herself right on top of critical support near 78.50. As we approach that level next week, you can be assured that chatter and MOPE will increase in an attempt to talk her back from the ledge. We'll see, it will probably work for a while. However, as you can see on the two charts below, the POSX is very close to breaking down and out of the trend inspired by the end of overt QE2 and the beginning of Operation Twist last summer. Should 78.50 and 78 fail...which I'm quite certain they will at some point soon...the POSX will once again set its sight on a test of the all-important, critical and vital support of 72-73.

paper_3-30ampig12.jpgpaper_3-30ampigd.jpg

Please check back later today as I hope to record and post some very important site update information for you. Also, there will not be a podcast this weekend as I have podcasts scheduled for each of the next two weekends. I'll take a look at yesterday's OI numbers and the latest CoT report and then make a new post this afternoon. Until then, have a great day and keep smiling.

TF

237 Comments

TrueBull's picture

first

first

dmanson's picture

Sekund

:)

I bought half my amount last week and waited to see if it went lower. After watching and watching, I just don't think Silver is going too much lower. I'm not going to watch anymore, we look to be in bottomsville. A few pennies don't matter. I'm going to buy the rest now.

Thanks for the info Turd!

waxybilldupp's picture

Was gonna' post "Thurd"

but I've done that already, so, nevermind.

Edit:  Sir Turd.  You can stop second guessing and apologizing for anything and everything.  I've been stacking for decades.  The first time ended with the Hunt Brothers skewered.  Got into stacking because silver coinage went away.  Just made sense to my young mind.  Got out close to the top.  Next time, restarted stacking when Gordon Dipshit Brown was having clearance sales with England's gold.  Just made sense to my considerably older, skeptical mind.  Both times were kind of on a wing and a prayer.

Then, along came the Watchtower.  Ahhhhhhhh! Rays of sun came thru the clouds.  What I'm trying to say, Turd, is keep doin' what your doin'!  I would be lost without my daily fix here in Turdville.  Between you and the amazing fellow minions and klingons here in the village, I learn stuff unavailable anywhere else.  You, Turd, and your faithful followers, are ROCK STARS!  I thank you all!

wax off 

Norrin's picture

Re: turd bashers

Generally, I skim the comments for a few select opinions. The rest are generally ignored. 

Turd, please keep up the great work. The daily missives are great for the rest of us to chew on and find entry points to add to our stack.

printmemoney's picture

4th

and no I haven't read the whole post

Edit:  Actually, I was fifth.  And, I would like to point out something to your critics regarding one of the calls you made in the comments on Wednesday. (at 12:37 in fact)

"This is all just manipulative nonsense.

Support will be found between 1660 and 1665 in gold and at 32 and just below in silver.

Both metals look to be forming reverse H&S on the intermediate and long term charts. Patience."

Personally, in the midst of a massive beat down, I think this is one of the balsiest calls you have ever made.  I'm not sure if the haters will give you credit for it, and I'm not sure if they would count it as a "right" call if gold goes to 1630 next week.  However, I thought it was one of the best short-term calls I've seen.  Some people don't understand that facts are always changing and the MSM is always spouting to try and break stops on the chart. However, those that have followed you realize the research you do and the pride you take in your analysis.  Plus, no one else lays it on the line in such a public forum.  Kudos for the Wednesday call.

In addition, I like the trolls.  I think we should find some way to incorporate their comments into the TITS index.

tyberious's picture

F'em

Turd!

Your doing a great service!

Xeno's picture

Jaws

Great post as usual Turd. Clear and concise.

From an article at the link below, I used to read Ty regularly a while back. This is a good one, especially for those confused.

The US is hemorrhaging cash. Why hasn’t it crashed already? Because the United States Dollar is the only currency in the world in which the shorts and the longs do not want it to move. The shorts are the groups printing it endlessly -- The US government, banksters and the Federal Reserve. This is runaway confiscation of wealth. The longs are those trying to STORE WEALTH IN IT, which is a fool’s errand. Keep in mind the Fed hinted that QEIII is off the table. HA HA. It is an April fool’s joke. And YOU are the FOOL! IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME. PERIOD.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1333119600.php 

edit: forgot a question. If one goes short, how do you profit when the put seller is broke?

¤'s picture

Thanks...

...for the update and the effort you give us everyday on here. 

Admittedly, it's hard to keep up our intense focus on the markets everyday but  it's time's like this where things seem to be dragging along when a smack in the head happens and something flies under the radar.

Regarding items #1 & #2 and "The Ministry of Doubters".

I would urge some of you to seriously consider some of the posters who have been steadfastly bringing doubt against TF and PM's in general on the site and taking advantage of this low market mood that' we've been experiencing. Have the posters in question gotten into your head? If so, they've won.

I think that's the goal and has been the goal by some, not all. Opinions are one thing, subtle and steady bashing with a consistent theme is another. Look for it and recognize it.

I did awhile ago.

gbend's picture

Fleeing the US

For those of us open to the wider worlds of  "conspiracy" this Jim Stone interview gives some awful good reasons to fleethis country as we've seen some of our most successful people doing.  www.projectcamelotproductions.com/blog-hp.html             This guy Jim

Stone says he is on the run and gives the interview from somewhere in Mexico...    former NSA blowing whistles.  Ignore this post if you don't like conspiracy "nuts".

El Gordo's picture

Not Rich Yet

Here I am after over 90 days of concentrated study, selective buying, stacking, sweating all nighters to see what happens when London opens, squeezing all my fiat into PM's based solely on Turd's recommendations and I'm not rich yet.  WTF.  After a lifetime of wasting money on stocks, wimmen, booze, fancy cars, exquisite dining, I decided to start a retirement plan and was relying on my PM investments to pull me through.  Here we are 90 days later and I'm still not rich - another broken promise I guess.  Anyway, to quote Cartman:

(Snark off)

GoldMania3000's picture

rickards

Jim Rickards @JamesGRickards

Why would & spend so much time trashing lately unless it was catching on? This is power elite damage control

JimmyTheHand's picture

I don't follow what the haters say

I don't follow what the haters say.  I value other ideas, but I am able to discern pretty quick whose a hater and whose actually trying to contribute.

Thanks for an excellent post Mr. Turd!

atomic180's picture

"The Kids Are All Right"

Right or wrong its always good to get other opinions to  ballence out our own. Turd you may not always be right... but your  more often right than wrong and the Turdites give us all a little help w/our trades. Keep it up...next stop IMHO the EE May meeting QEIII, AG To 54, AU to 2050 new trading ranges ordained by WOPR 1880-1920 and 36-42... 

GoldMania3000's picture

rickards part two

Jim Rickards @JamesGRickards

In past seven years, at places like Fed, has gone from being ignored to being riducled to being part of a discussion. This is progress

geminiRX's picture

Neutral=good

I like gold and silver prices right where they are thank you very much. It is GOOD news that prices have been neutral last quarter. Consolidation is GOOD. I hope gold continues to be neutral going into the second quarter so that 2013 shapes up to be the year PM's go uberbullish.  

JimmyTheHand's picture

@El Gordo

HAhahahahahahaah.... now that's funny!

dropout's picture

And the Winner? GOLD!

Despite gold being range bound at $1,630/oz to $1,700/oz, it's set to end the first quarter in 2012 with gains in ALL major currencies. Which proves debt monetisation (printing) and currency debasement is leading to continuing currency devaluations.

This in turn is NOT good news for the consumer, as devalued currency induced cost push inflation, sets ever higher prices at the check out counter. Great for gold and silver as their valuations will soar! 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rises-and-silver-surges-q1-2012-fiat-currency-devaluation-continues 

Straying From the Flock's picture

Over the target

That is when you run into flak.  Of course they are trashing gold.  The time is coming for the end of the paradigm.  We cannot know when, so I prepare as if it were tomorrow.  Somewhere I read that it was better to be a year too early than a day too late.

While I am here, I was curious if anyone saw my post in the last thread about Chris Duane and his Silver Bullet and Silver Shield.  Just curious as to all of your opinions about his research and theory, as well as the great Yellow Hat's take on this subject.  That is, if you have a spare moment TF.

Here it is again for those that have not seen it:

RGD

OneTinSoldier's picture

Something I always try and keep in mind

/start rant

Who's in command and control of the economy? Are we using whatever we choose as money? Or are we using Government decreed money? You vote in the economy with money, with every transaction. But you can't do that if you're using 'their money'! Imagine if the Government had to use money that it cannot create at will. Money that it requires you to use by it's coercion and force. Why don't they ever talk about what has to happen when they have to cut down on the spending(the deficit spending), and start paying down the National Debt! What brought this about to begin with? Unfunded liabilities for one thing. Because they want to get their meat hooks into the people by making promises they can't or have no intention of keeping, because they just want power! 

Banksters, The Fed, the TPTB, they are in the LIBOR, the ISDA/CDS, the Twist/QE and false reporting from the BLS, the Market-to-Myth, and on and on and on. They do not allow the common people to be in charge of having much influence on what really matters in the economy. In a free market you'd be in charge of your own destiny, not them. The Banksters seem to only know greed, greed, and more F'n greed!

It's a house of cards built upon lies and crony capitalist fascism. Don't be hypnotized and fooled by those sorry S.O.B.'s that just want command and control... for them. They don't do it for you!

I buy and hold PM's not because I'm selfish, I do it because I'm tired of being ripped off and not having any say in what goes on in Government and the Economy! But TPTB house of cards phony economy will one day come to and end. Anything that's unsustainable eventually comes to an end one way or another.

Throughout history, state issued paper fiat money has always eventually found it's way to it's true intrinsic value, without exception. Something I always try and keep in mind!

/end rant

Turd Ferguson's picture

I'm going to reluctantly stir the pot

MODERATOR

It is with great inhibition that I post the info below. However, it is a very good and brief summary of a component of the Iran "situation" that must be evaluated by everyone. Not saying that you have to agree with this. I am saying that you simply need to be aware of this possibility.

Please try to keep the discussion of this information civil and respectful.

From Joel Rosenberg's site: http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/

It should be noted, for example, that in August of 2008, the Ayatollah Khamenei publicly declared that the Shia Islamic End Times messianic figure known as the Twelfth Imam was coming to earth soon to rescue humanity and that he was committed to “preparing the ground” for the Mahdi’s arrival.

Then, in July of 2010, the Ayatollah Khamenei indicated that he had actually seen and met with the Twelfth Imam. Few Iranians understood what Khamenei meant by this. Did he see a dream or vision of the so-called Islamic “messiah”? Was he visited by an actual human being? Is this person or apparition going to reveal himself publicly soon? When? Under what conditions? And what does Khamenei believe the Twelfth Imam said to him? What was he told to do? These are all unanswered questions, but it is revealing that Khamenei believes this happened. Few Western analysts noticed this development or paid attention to it, but the point is Khamenei is a true believer. He really believes the end of the world is at hand and that he is supposed to be going to war against the “Great Satan” (the U.S., in his view) and the “Little Satan” (Israel, in his view). He also believes his eternal destiny lies with obeying the Twelfth Imam (also known as the Mahdi), not negotiating with the West. The point is not whether Western analysts believe this is true, but whether Khamenei does, and there is no question that Khamenei does.

Then, just a few weeks later in July 2010, the Ayatollah Khamenei publicly declared himself the official representative of the Twelfth Imam and the Prophet Muhammad on earth and therefore must be obeyed. Previously, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the most visible public spokesman regarding the coming of the End Times and Shia ”messiah.” But in July 2010 was a turning point. Khamenei consciously and willfully supplanted Ahmadinejad’s role. The Ayatollah declared himself to be the leader of the messianic age until the appearance of the Twelfth Imam.

Patrancus's picture

SWIFT to the rescue

SWIFT to the rescue is a potent weapon of the current financial wars;  squeezing Iran into economic submission is in high gear

TPTB are well healed at the economic card table, and the cards be what they may, when you have unlimited ability to pay, you always play. 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/03/27/the-payments-network-as-economic-weapon

Dr G's picture

Nothing wrong with stirring

Nothing wrong with stirring the pot. And that viewpoint means oil is going much, much higher...and probably very soon.

kingboo's picture

Yup........keep smiling

Here's a recent picture of me after a trip to the dental clinic.....

mrneutron's picture

Ranting Andy: The Cartel Will Be Completely DESTROYED

Really good interview:

http://sgtreport.com/2012/03/ranting-andy-the-cartel-will-be-completely-destroyed/

The Outlook For REAL Money Only Gets Stronger : Andy Hoffman

The Cartel Will be COMPLETELY DESTROYED : Andy Hoffman [Part 2]

Patrancus's picture

my 2012 prediction

my 2012 prediction is that oil prices will manipulated to plumnet once again as they have in the past and pump prices by November will be at a level acceptable to American consumers the result being a re-election for his royal hindass. These people are dangerous.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thanks Doc

MODERATOR

The "Shia End Times Eschetology" angle to this story may be completely off base and crazy. Who knows?

But that's exactly the point: WHO KNOWS??? No one can say with 100% certainty that the Iranian leadership is rational. They probably are...but, again, no one can say with 100% certainty that they are.

The point is...be aware. Consider all possibilities. Prepare accordingly.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Trader Dan

MODERATOR
dropout's picture

Iran

Imatoldya and Imadinnerjacket ~ IMHO are corrupt politicos hiding behind religion and using it to advance their agendas. These are dangerous men. Hopefully a drones camera will be in their future.

Smile for the birdy! BOOM!

koan's picture

Forgot to say

A while back I persuaded my dear mamere to transfer some of what meagre savings she has into PMs.

This made me happy.

Mr. F, keep it up.

¤'s picture

12th Imam

Seeing angels and hidden mahdi's while claiming to be getting direction from some 12th imam is crazzzzzy talk! 

And were supposed to believe that a President of a country who has stated their goal is to annihilate an entire country and it's inhabitants shouldn't be taken seriously and it's not what they really mean???

Magical thinking is one thing but stating it repeatedly to the world or your country is another one all together. Anyone remember President I'maNutJob speaking at the UN when he spoke of seeing angels with messages? That's who Israel and the West are negotiating with. 

If a powerful western leader said the exact same things the world would be really worried and have the right to be. What's the difference here?

Does anyone really believe Iran has absolutely no intention of fulfilling some centuries old prophecy they keep referencing from their highest leadership positions?

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