Your World In 6 Charts

Unfortunately, time is short this morning. However, I promise you a more complete update later today.

For now, these six charts tell the tale. Do not be fearful of the metals here as I am confident that the bottoms are in. They are simply consolidating now, above the bases that have been formed. Give them a few days. I expect a rally by Friday or very early next that will send them back toward 1680-1700 and 33. From there, happy days in April will get gold finally back above 1700 and 1705 where price will begin to accelerate higher, dragging silver along with it.

I've been drawing these bowls (smiles) on these charts for some time now. It's nice to think that the metals would follow the right hand side of the bowl back higher soon, and they might. More likely, however, is a continued, gradual grind higher. Most of you are experienced enough to know now that the metals drop a lot faster than they rise.

paper_3-28amgold.jpgpaper_3-28amsilv.jpg

paper_3-28amcrude.jpgpaper_3-28ampig.jpg

paper_3-28am10yr.jpgpaper_3-28amlb.jpg

Have a fun day.  TF

101 Comments

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Another first

Geez - roll out of the sack, fire up the laptop, see a new thread and whaddaya know?  I think this is something like three 'firsts' for me, not counting the one that was moderated away.

If you want to ignore me over this, so be it.

bellyacre's picture

FIRST???????

FIRST  (NOT). Loved the video last night

Xeno's picture

Thurst

Thurst.

Nice bowls there, not too hot, not too cold.

¤'s picture

Muchos Gracias Senior' TF

Not even sure if I spelled that right but you get the point.  Thanks!

This talk coming out of Europe how the crisis is over etc. is an early April Fools joke or what? They can't be serious with a comment like that.

That's MOPE on steroids. Body Builder

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Fifth…

Could use a fifth today.

Really hope the bottom is in on the metals, getting bored with all the sideways action.

Jdawg's picture

Sixth

We need to move up now

Xeno's picture

Boring

Yeah it's boring. Trouble is just when you think it couldn't get more boring and decide to go eat an apple, boom! the bowl gets lit.

Strongsidejedi's picture

@mudsharkbytes - sideways

We're getting spoiled with all the uptrend over 2009-2012

Silver Meddler's picture

Smiley Face

I emailed the gold chart to a few people with the subject "In-Depth Technical Analysis." Thanks for the chuckle.

Xeno's picture

Some Call It

On that chart, some call it a downtrend, some call it a flag, some even call it a pennant or a rounding cup bottom. Either way, resolution to determine exactly what it is seems close.

Did I say resolution? sorry.

Mudsharkbytes's picture

The problem is…

…after almost a year of watching consistent beat-downs every time the metals break out of their slumps, my cynicism is at record levels.  When the inevitable break-out finally arrives, I'll be anticipating waterfalls the whole time.  

I suppose that's part of the 'plan' - soften up the psyche of PM stackers so they're constantly 'jittery' and unsure about the rightness of what they're doing.

Kind of pisses me off because I know what I'm doing is right but the MSM news and the market keeps trying to convince me I'm mistaken, and don't even get me started on what my friends and acquaintances think of preserving wealth in PM's.

Xeno's picture

You're Right

My cynicism is at record levels for me too but this is the 2nd big consolidation I've been through. All the demon heads of state and misreporting of facts and the shell games is what really tics me off.

Iowans have a point - Show Me.

Eric Original's picture

It appears to be gold bashing day on CNBS

It appears to be gold bashing day on CNBS.  Steady stream of snarky "analysis".

crg's picture

Goldman...

I don't like it that GS is long gold now...sell to the muppets they're thinking...

Stratajema's picture

Goldman Sachs wishes to remind you

... that they expect gold to rally considerably from here.  Of course, Goldman has your best interest at heart while releasing that information to the muppets of the world.  Meanwhile, at your local coin dealer, there is one buyer for every four sellers.  Online dealers are flush with stock.  The psyche of the speculating PM muppet is breaking but they need to be broken further, especially during an election year.

I've been reading the rantings about extremely poor price action in the mining stocks.  Mining companies are a great investment... NOT.  They sell a depleting asset (their PMs) and give you a 1.5% dividend, if you're lucky.  Those greedy bastard companies don't even have the brains to listen to Santa when he said last year that they need to increase their dividends to attract new investors. 

Mickey's picture

PM rallies

except for when Ben hints QE, rallies seem to last 5-20 minutes.

At least due to paper selling.

So when will physical win out over paper--ala Kyle Bass video.

I think gold is stil positive for year--if reversion to mean then gold would be up somewhere around 15% for 2012-cannot hang hat on that. 

But too many Technicians and others saying soon the PMs will begin to move up--that kind of tells me a lot of people on sidelines waiting for the "soon" to pass. And thus a lot of buyers--paper and physical enter the game which should fuel a very nice rally.

Wish I knew when :-(

murphy's picture

@ Muddy

Hat tip on the friends and acquaintances. But for every ten of them there is one that awakens. Met with a customer (Korean lady) who I have known for twenty years. Back in 2008 I told her about Au @$850. She did nothing. A couple of years later we discussed it again @$1150. Nothing yet. More recently at $1400. Nothing still.

Yesterday she says, so what you think? I said the same thing, buy. She now sees the money in the bank earns nothing and cash becoming more and more valueless. She says she is now going to start buying.

Furthermore, she says I should have made her buy when I told her for the last five years. LOL!

I know everyone reading this doesn't need this information but it might be helpful if you want to help others.

Here's the email I sent.

Okay, here's some quick information. The first two sites will give you an overview of what some of the internet retailers are selling product for. This way you can compare them. Don't forget to check the shipping charges and also if they charge tax. Most don't charge tax, but shipping charges do vary.

http://comparegoldprices.com/

http://comparesilverprices.com/

I have done business with Provident and have not had any issues. Speedy delivery, no delays, goods as ordered. The others have good reputations as well.

http://www.providentmetals.com/

http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/

http://www.apmex.com/

MY PLAN WOULD BE:

This is what I would do if I were you and did not own any metal at this time. I would plan on buying the following percentages.

50% gold / 50% silver

Silver is the more volatile investment and because of it also has more upside possibility. Silver should out perform gold and when it does then you should trade your silver in for gold.

Presently, with gold at $1685 and silver at $32.60 the gold/silver ratio is 1685/32.60= 51.68. The historical average is 16. Which is also the actual physical amount of silver to gold found in the earth. Therefore right now silver is very cheap compared to gold. If the price of silver reverts back to anywhere close to the ratio you are looking at $100 silver with gold at today's price. When gold goes to two or $3000, silver should be much higher than where it is today. 

If you feel that 50% Is too much silver for you, just decrease the percentage. My investment manager actually has us at 70% silver and 30% gold. Prior to that we were 50/50 gold/silver.

Whatever total amount you plan on  buying, divide it by 4 or 5 and in that way you can make 3 or 4 more purchases when the price goes down.

Here's a place for metals charts

http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.netdania.com  This one may need to be set up for you.

Example: $100,000 total.  Buy $20,000  now. $10,000 silver and $10,000 gold. Since silver is so much cheaper, it does take up quite a bit of space compared to gold. I would recommend buying 10 ounce silver bars and 1 ounce gold bars, initially to get started. Because the premiums are lower.

Of each of them you should end up buying 50% coins and 50% bars.

Another way to own physical gold and silver is through bullion banks.

Goldmoney.com - I like having a portion of my physical with them stored outside the US.

PRO's

You are able to buy and sell 24 hours a day
You can trade between the metals.
You have assets outside of the USA that our government can't touch
No matter where you are in the world you can have money wired to you from that account.

Con's

Costs extra for storage fees
Don't have the metal under your control
Can they go out of business and steal your money? Just like anyone else can.

There is also bullionvault.com who have a good reputation as well.

There are pro and con about all ways to invest in metals. There is only one sure way to own them and that is to be able to hold them in your hand. This of course opens you up to robbery, etc. if you keep them at home. If you keep them in a safe deposit box you also lose control over them. Can only get them during bank hours, but more dangerous is the bank can go out of business and steal your possessions in the box.

A third way to purchase is to seek out local coin shops. See if you can start up a relationship with the owner. First and most important if they need to charge sales tax it does not make sense to buy from them. The extra 7% or 8% is dumb to pay. It kills your investment return. You already have to pay a premium on the metal, you can't afford sales tax as well. Second, you may be able to purchase with cash with them. Third, you need to be careful when you are coming and going from a coin shop that people are not watching and following you home.

I think a combination of all is the best bet.

One more thing. You should tell as few people as possible that you are investing in physical gold/silver. You can tell them you are buying gold and silver ETF's in the stock market. Oh and by the way, NEVER BUY GLD OR SLV ETF's in the market. They do not own the physical. They are just trading vehicles and when the shit hits the fan there will be nothing for the small investor.

Regarding the stock market there are a couple of things I do think are worth while that are physical investments.
One is CEF- Central Fund Of Canada. They have been in business since 1961 and own 50/50 gold/silver in their audited vaults. Another is Sprott. He has PSLV for silver and PHYS for gold. I think CEF is the better value.

If you have questions you can send me an email or call. Good luck.

Here is a metals website that has excellent information. Presently it is free but it will be charging for a portion of it in the future. You can learn a great deal from it and the people who post on it. He also has gold and silver charts on his home page.

tfmetalsreport.com

That's a lot of info to take in. Once you feel more comfortable I will send you other websites that you can learn from and make this  business less scary.

BTFD!

Happy Stacking!

Desert Fox's picture

Where's the Action?

Last screen "refresh"smiley

¤'s picture

What would you indulge in...

...if gold and silver went ballistic in price and you realized a small fortune from your stackin' or trading abilities?  "Ballistic in price" could be whatever you might imagine.

What might you do with your new found or vastly increased wealth?

I would probably buy a large piece of property that had a really nice brick or stone exterior home on it and also install one of those modern bunkers we see on those TV shows somewhere on that property or somewhere else.

A slow news and market day had me daydreaming a little bit.

I was imagining a killer house on a sizable piece of land. How about you? 

Might as well dream big...

87351-gate.jpg

I see a surveillance camera on the edge of that one roofline watching the gate....added bonuswink

¤'s picture

murphy

yesyes

CaribSurfKing1's picture

Still getting emails from my car financier....

Who keeps reminding me when I bought my car last Sep, that she was "all in" Apple, and I was "all in" Silver.

I told her she was a muppet and that Steve Jobs was about to pass away and that Android was about to swamp iOS etc....

She reminds me she has almost doubled her money, while I have lost 25% of my money! And feels sorry for me!

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

rubearish12's picture

Yes Fragile

I want to be confident these levels hold and believe they have a good chance to do just that. The wild card is should any peep of a new problem in Europe which appears to be ominously unlikely. Love your site Turd! PM Bitchez!

Silver_investor's picture

Re: What would you indulge in.....

My plan is to buy a self-sufficient farm. I know that it may be years before the price of silver goes high enough to allow me to do it, but that's my vision. My heart has been set on it for many years.  

Dr G's picture

To sum Turd's thoughts: Stay

To sum Turd's thoughts:

Stay patient, my friends

The Most Interesting Man In The World - I don't always BTFD But when I do, i buy silver

Dr G's picture

(No subject)

The Most Interesting Man In The World - I don't always go for dirty bankers but when I do, it's Ms. Masters for me

Silver_investor's picture

@DrG

The levity helps to pass the time while we wait for the Cartel to be defeated. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

I urge you to listen to this in its entirety

MODERATOR

about 15 minutes

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/3/27_Jim_Sinclair.html

Dear CIGAs, 

  

Brazil, Russia, India China and South Africa are meeting next week because of the use of SWIFT as a weapon of war. Expect the formation of a competitive SWIFT system in three blocks. The dollar will test .7200 USDX and fail on the third tap.

 

There will be an audio interview on this development with Erik King of King World News tomorrow morning.

 

I have been doubted on many things, much of which has come to fruition. There was a time when $1650 in gold was considered the ludicrous dream of a madman.

 

2012 is the year that the US dollar will suffer from a significant drop in utilization as the international settlement currency. The utilization of the SWIFT system as a means of making war is the singular greatest mistake dollar managers have ever made.

 

Phil, that might have seemed logical to you, but you fail to focus on the consequences now in motion soon to isolate the dollar in a three currency block (Yuan/Euro/Dollar) losing at least 1/2 of its previous strength from the international settlement mechanism provided. It is too late now to rethink the use of the SWIFT system as a weapon of war. The cat is out of the bag and the damage is done.

 

As a product of acceleration of this process, the US dollar will test .7200 on the outdated USDX. The test will fail on the third tap.

 

Love,

Santa

ReachWest's picture

Hope this IS Bottom

Thanks Turd - these are the times that try us - but - I get the feeling things are going to change dramatically, soon. Watching the 15 min Silver chart is painful, right now. (Guess that's why I usually look away or not at all). Certainly hope this is the bottom. Geopolitical and Economic fundamentals say it certainly should be.

My Miners are pitiful today - my Oils look like crap too. My stack still looks the same as it did yesterday. 

EDIT: To add todays Cartoon Newscast - This one features Bernanke doing his lectures at GW, when he is interrupted by a phone call from his Mom.

Dr G's picture

Ahh, Sinclair. The ramblings

Ahh, Sinclair. The ramblings of a madman.

To his ramblings I say that of course the USD will suffer a drop. Of course it will test the 72 range (loads of support above it at 73, then look out below...).

It all seems obvious. I trust his outcome but not the timing in any way. 

EDIT: I've thought about this post and want to clarify it a bit with some afterthoughts.

1. Sinclair knows more about the markets and the world trades than I will ever know.

2. Sinclair *always* responds to my emails in a timely manner. I usually ask him questions about his cryptic messages and get more cryptic messages in return. But it is, without a doubt, amazing that he takes the time to respond. I'm sure he responds to everybody.

3. Being cryptic doesn't make him a prophet. He's good. But lots of other people are good. When it comes to eventual outcomes I think most Turdites are good. Where is silver going? To the moon.

4. I really appreciate Santa.

5. His mining company is terrible. Pull something out of the ground and you'll get a valuation. Until then, your valuation is $0. Mining isn't easy. You can sit on a fertile patch of ground and get nothing out of it. That can happen even through no fault of your own. Mining isn't precious metals. Mining is a business and businesses fail all of the time. Mining stocks aren't precious metals. Mining stocks are stocks and stocks are a terrible game of roulette that is controlled by TPTB.

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