Thank you, Mr Ben Bernank

Well, what a pleasant surprise The Bernank threw our way this morning, and just in time. The LBMA goons had attacked and the stage was set for a nasty Monday. Instead, we got a rally and growing confidence that the bottom is definitely "in" for gold, and probably silver, too.

If you missed all of the hubbub back at about 8:00, here's a link to help you catch up:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/futures-precious-metals-soar-bernanke-says-more-accommodative-policies-needed-hints-new-qe

There will undoubtedly be all sorts of chartreaders and analysts who will parade forth today to proclaim the thisses and the thats as to why The Bernank said what he said. Believe who you want but I laid it all out for your right here last week:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3555/keep-watching-bond-market

Again, interest rates cannot be allowed to rise. Not short-term rates, not intermediate rates and not long-term rates. Any rise in rates accelerates the unraveling of The Great Ponzi and simply cannot be allowed. What do you think this is all about anyway? Growth? Well, kinda. Growth kind of matters in the faint, Keynesian hope that we can "grow our way out of this mess". It's not going to happen but rates must be kept low, just in case. Nope, the low rates are about the perpetuation of the Ponzi. Fiscal 2011 already saw $454 B in debt service for the U.S. government and that was with an average maturity of about 4 years and an average rate under 4%. Please do the math and you'll see that interest rates cannot be allowed to rise. No way, no how.

So, in response, you get days like today. Look, there will always be "hawkish" and "dovish" statements by The Bernank and the assorted Fed governors. No doubt, after this speech by The Bernank today, later this week we'll get Fisher or KosherDakota rolled out to try to proclaim a counter message. All of this is simply MOPE and SPIN and means absolutely nothing long term. Someone/something must buy the $1.4T in new debt that the U.S. issues each year. Normally, rates would rise to a point where buyers would get interested. But, interest rates cannot be allowed to rise. So, who buys the bonds and supplies the necessary funding for the continual deficit spending of the U.S government? THE FED, silly. And when The Fed openly and overtly buys U.S. government debt, what do we call it? Quantitative Easing. And how long will quantitative easing continue? Until an infinite amount of useless, valueless, paper currency has been created.

All of this has had the necessary effect of pumping up the PMs today. I say necessary as The Turd was as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room of rocking chairs over the weekend. It's more than a little unnerving to loudly proclaim a bottom in gold when seemingly everyone from CNBS to the WSJ is telling you otherwise. But, I had to go with what I knew and everything was screaming "BOTTOM" on Thursday and Friday. From here, let's just hope it all hold up.

As you can see on the charts, gold just looks great. It has formed a very nice, rounded bottom in the charts and, today, has broken up and out through horizontal and technical (200-day MA) resistance near 1680. With 45 minutes to go on the Comex, we are still hanging in there at 1686 and any close above 1680 would be a very good sign. "Winston" emailed me on Friday and mentioned that he thought Thursday had cleaned out all of the nervous put sellers in the April gold. With that gold now in weak "short" hands, he was looking for a rally but that gold would likely be held under 1700 through option expiry. Today's action clearly caught most everyone by surprise but I do think Winston is right on the money here. Let's look for a further rally and then consolidation until expiry at the close tomorrow. Then, with those shenanigans behind us, maybe gold can hit the gas a bit later this week and begin an assault on 1700 and then 1720.

paper_3-26amgold12.jpgpaper_3-26amgold4.jpg

Silver is looking good, too, but it continues to lag behind gold in the confidence area. The critical thing for silver is to retake 32.80 and then 33.00. You can expect EE resistance at 33 because, well, they always put resistance there. Anyone who considers themself a long-term Turdite will know what I mean. That said, if gold keeps chugging along, silver will invariably follow. The two charts below lay out this scenario quite well. A close today, first above 32.80 would be very constructive. IF silver can then move through and close above $33 later this week, we can all get very confident that the bottom for silver is "in", too.

paper_3-26amsilv12.jpgpaper_3-26amsilv4.jpg

That's all for now. It's been a crazy day. LT#1 woke up yesterday with a sore throat and today has been diagnosed with Strep Throat. LT#2 is now complaining about similar symptoms and yours truly is feeling a little dicey, too. Ugh. Oh well, whaddayagonnado? We're gonna blast this stuff higher and take delivery...that what we're going to do! The Cartels can win the occasional battles but, in the end, they will lose the war. The only chance they have at saving themselves would to surrender (move net positive). They haven't done this yet, obviously, but their day is coming. Surrender or be defeated. Those are their only options.

TF

132 Comments

Fr. Bill's picture

First!!

First!!

O frabjous day!! Calloo! Callay!!

He chortled in his joy!

Ag Surfer's picture

Really a first??

Really a first??

Oh, ok. Second! :) and this is my first post! I was going to proclaim a double first!
I've been coming to this site for about 6 months but it always seems that my ideas or inputs get expressed before I have a chance to say anything. I can't say thank you enough to Turd for all the work he does and to all of you for the extra insight! It helps to know you aren't alone when everyone in the MSM is telling you that you're wrong! I have been stacking for several years now and trying to "wake up" anyone who will listen to me speak :) I don't know if it's something in the water or what, but it's hard to get people to care. They just want to keep on using their FRNs and not pay any attention to the man behind the curtain! (wizard of oz reference) In a conversation with a friend recently we discussed it as an "intentional ignorance". I'm sure this is already a long enough first post and I wont keep you anymore from reading something more insightful below ;) again I cant say thank you enough for helping me "surf" the tides of cartel longs and shorts! It's def helped me to bring my average purchase price down on my stack!
- Ag Surfer

Canuck's picture

Third

Third

firstsilver's picture

Ben giveth, and Ben taketh

The problem with these knee-jerk reactions to Bernanke utterances is that they cut both ways.

He's not exactly Mr. Consistency. So, just as today his remarks were interpreted as priming the battlefield for a QE announcement, tomorrow he might seize upon some arcane economic announcement to tell us things are going well and, by inference, QE is not need now or in the near future.

When, I ask, will investors ignore Bernanke Babble and instead on concentrate on interpreting the fundamentals themselves? If and when they do, whatever Ben says won't matter as gold and silver move inexorably skyward.

bernard's picture

Do the Bernank, The Ben Bernank!

Yes friends this time it's for real, the Bernank spent all weekend in his wizard castle remixing The Monster Mash song in preparation for the upcoming onslaught of equities. After Bernie guns the S&P to 1500, there will be a prompt default cascade marked by systemic fragility and a reversion to agrarian life style for most of America. 

NOTHING TO SEE HERE, MOVE ALONG FOLKS!

_________________

CompareSilverPrices.com - Bernank does the dirty work so you don't have to

Larry L's picture

Bowl Chart Soup

Thank you Mr Bernak. My Bowl Chart of Silver is tasting better now!

taoJones's picture

Turd, Not to nitpick but both

Turd,

Not to nitpick but both posted links are the same, unless you meant to do that... smiley

Temporalist's picture

Just logged in to report the same

@taojones Turd the links you shared are identical you need to fix the second to last week's post.

taoJones's picture

My apologies if this pic has

My apologies if this pic has already been posted here...

iceman321_2k2's picture

Yes, thank you indeed

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/investing/bernanke-lends-a-helping-hand-to-gold-and-silver.html/

The economy is still struggling and the Federal Reserve is willing to use the printing press to kick the can down the road until it falls off a cliff.  According to the latest financial statement released last week, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet surged 20 percent to $2.9 trillion in 2011.  U.S. Treasury holdings grew 64 percent to $1.75 trillion, accounting for the majority of the balance sheet.

Since Bernanke believes cyclical rather than structural factors are the primary source of long-term unemployment, he expects stimulus to counter the weak job market, however, he also leaves room for his hypothesis to be wrong.  In this case, he still believes the Fed can support employment and growth levels through ongoing accommodating policies.  “If this hypothesis is wrong and structural factors are in fact explaining much of the increase in long-term unemployment, then the scope for counter-cyclical policies to address this problem will be more limited.  Even if that proves to be the case, however, we should not conclude that nothing can be done,” Bernanke explained.

Dr G's picture

Formal easing announcement at

Formal easing announcement at meeting April 24/25. Looks like a prime setup.

Also, slightly bummed that silver made it to 32.80 but cannot clear that resistance. Could be a tough battle. Maybe Asian markets will help us clear the hurdle?

cpnscarlet's picture

More KWN Cheerleading.....Maybe

Ircsum's picture

Cheers, Turd!

Your record as a bottom picker is really something - keep up the good work!

Hope the little turds recover quickly & remember - you're not allowed to become ill & slack off from the job. devil

Bobbejaan's picture

A couple of interesting articles :-

A couple of interesting topical articles here :-

Quote:
What is money, why do we trust it and has it become too confusing?

We dream about it, argue about it, worry about it, celebrate it, spend it, save it - but what exactly is money and why do we put our trust in it?

We invest it and gain it, and unfortunately sometimes lose it, and we give it value and worth - or at least we agree to give it a certain value. But what does it represent?

It used to be stones, or shells. It has sometimes been cigarettes, wives and, arguably, sex. Most-famously it has been gold and silver .....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17458645

.

&

.

Quote:
Fake gold bars! What's next?

It's one thing to counterfeit a twenty or hundred dollar bill. The amount of financial damage is usually limited to a specific region and only affects dozens of people and thousands of dollars. Secret Service agents quickly notify the banks on how to recognize these phony bills and retail outlets usually have procedures in place (such as special pens to test the paper) to stop their proliferation.

But what about gold? This is the most sacred of all commodities because it is thought to be the most trusted, reliable and valuable means of saving wealth.

A recent discovery -- in October of 2009 -- has been suppressed by the main stream media but has been circulating among the "big money" brokers and financial kingpins and is just now being revealed to the public. It involves the gold in Fort Knox -- the US Treasury gold -- that is the equity of our national wealth. In short, millions (with an "m") of gold bars are fake!

Who did this? Apparently our own (USA) government .....

http://www.viewzone.com/fakegold.html

ivars's picture

Comparison of EUR/USD prediction/reality and small improvement

The October 5th, 2011 prediction chart-almost spot on the trends:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=600#p34394

slightly improved as actual behavior over last 6 months allows to scale time axis a little bit better-looks like that:

So, Euro zone problems will be bigger from May 2012 than any coming USA QE until USA default in end of 2015/early 2016

Also here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/146897#comment-146897

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Frankly, I don't think I'd like to be known as a …

…successful bottom picker.

Something just not right with that phraseology.  There has to be another way to say it.

Sort of reminds me of the old joke of 'You going to the movies?  No?  Then why are you picking your seat?'

exiledbear's picture

Actually, how much does anyone remember Arthur Burns?

Remember who Arthur Burns was? He was the Fed chairsatan responsible for the '70s inflation. But I bet not one in 100 people know who he is. More people remember the guy who had to clean up the mess - Volcker. Even then not too many people remember him either. 

I think in 10 years, nobody will remember The Bernank. They'll remember whoever it was who had to put everything back together again. Sorta.

thurd aye's picture

different slant on AG to TF, also RSA invasion coming?

I see Richard Russell thinks a little differently about AG right now.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/21_Richard_Russell_-_Silver_Now_Outpacing_Gold_%26_Fed_Frightened.html

Also South Africa,where I stay,is kicking the Pig out of bed and going with the Yuan in the near future.Is that a reason for another invasion I wonder?

ClinkinKY's picture

@ Mudsharkbytes

Frankly, I don't think I'd like to be known as a …

 

…successful bottom picker.

Something just not right with that phraseology.  There has to be another way to say it.

Dingleberry?:)

willsilvaa's picture

Colloidal Silver kills bugs dead

Hi Turd; Thank you for the positive update.The hui/gold ratio  seems to have bottomed aswell. 

Sorry to hear your child is sick. If we lived closer i would come over and give you the C.Silver lecture and a bottle. Of course you probably know about the germ killing abilities of silver already.I bought a $250 Silver Gen 6 machine over the internet. Before that  i used a cheaper model. There was a famous study done by the Brigham Young university.They found that silver killed over 650 germs and viruses,including staph , e-coli and salmonella,on contact with no side effects. 10 years later  this study was removed from the public domain ,siting privacy issues or some bs reason. I am sure big pharma doesn't like competition.

Mind you once a bug is in you, the silver only speeds up recovery. It is better to have it in your body continuously {in micro amounts}. Elemental silver used to be in our soils,so we naturally benefitted ,through the food we grew in that soil. Today we should use Csilver as a supplement ....ie do a swig every few days,for bad colds i spray into eyes and snort up nose..thats where the germs get in! Your liver excretes the CS in 2-3 weeks,so you won't od on it .  ok i'll stop   

Be Prepared's picture

@exiledbear - Humpty Dumpty

I don't think we will have to worry about any Chairistan putting anything back together every again.....  I have a hard time believing that the Fed can make $15.6 Trillion of Debt and growing just disappear....  they can make it irrelevant by making it worth less or worthless....  It doesn't really matter who the Chairistan is anymore because the game plan is so set in stone that whomever sits in the seat will be locked into it...  

Pax Argentum's picture

Bernank Increasingly Schizo...Expect More of the Same

What a character the Chairsatan is.

Why, just last week he was pontificating at GW university how the world has moved on from the 'barbaric relic' and that the Fed has things well in hand. Nothing to worry about, move along, back to the couch and the snack bowl with you! Isn't Cajun Pawn Stars on?

Today of course, we find ourselves quite UN-surprised that yes, in fact, there will be more QE. Wow. What a shocker.

Or, not so much if you've even read more than a handful of TF's (or ZH) missives on the subject.

There are many, many indicators and counter-indicators, most of them pumped and stroked by the fluffers that our taxes pay for, that are rolled out on a regular basis to move the market one way or the other to suit those in a position to benefit (read: not you). We have a good laugh at the shills on CNBS or other branches of the Ministry of Propaganda as they weekly (and weakly) strive to hold the pieces together in some semblance of positive momentum in a vain hope that somehow, someway we'll grow our way out of the pit we've dug for ourselves. Of course, this will never happen. They know it and we know it.

The key is to understand the larger picture and where we are headed long-term. For you traders, TF's TA, Trader Dan, Santa, Harvey O, and some the aforementioned indices can certainly be of value when tracking in the short term. Personally, I'm not a trader and so I take interest but not action on daily or weekly charts.

Essentially though, Ben, Timmy, Zero and the rest of the crew are finding themselves in an increasingly smaller and smaller space in which to spin and MOPE. Interest rates must rise to entice more buyers to the table, but cannot be allowed to (as TF has repeatedly explained). The PMs, in an actual free market, would quickly climb to the stratosphere, thus the market must be manipulated to avoid the economic indictment of $2000 - $3000 Au and $50+ Ag. Money printing and QE (whether 'sterilized' or not) are helpful to crush interest rates but are injurious with regard to PM prices. Thus the trouble they find themselves in with walls closing in...

So, what to expect moving forward?

I suspect we'll see the frequency of utterances by Wesley Mouch* and company increase dramatically. And as with anyone stuck in a psychological cycle of destructive behavior....we'll see more of the same. More spin, more MOPE, hawkish statements quickly followed by the cry of doves as they vainly try to manage the unmanageable. 

Hang on, the ride is likely to get much rougher before we're allowed to get off.

Keep stacking and Feed the Turd.

Pax

* See Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand.

opticsguy's picture

structural vs cyclical

Mr. Bernank should have figured out that the worker's share of national income has gone over a cliff in the last decade.  Without distributing a certain amount of capital back to the workers, you do not create enough demand to justify continued capital investment.  Marx the economist predicted this almost 150 years ago.  I'll make it easier for you, Mr. Bernank....unemployed people and those making $8/hour do not buy houses or cars.

Temporalist's picture

@mudsharkbytes I agree

How about Dip Defender, Pith Prospector, Foundation Forecaster, Price Pirate, Raid Rustler, Trench Mensch, Gully Buddy, Ditch Diviner, Medium of Manipulation, Seer of Sinkholes...

I'll just keep quiet and pick my bottom now.

Silver_investor's picture

How much longer?

"Surrender or be defeated. Those are their only options."

But how much longer will it be before we claim victory over the Cartel? Sometimes I think we underestimate TPTB. I mean, I'm amazed that they've been able to keep the Ponzi going this long. Bernanke's statement this morning was just more smoke and mirrors. According to ShadowStats, real unemployment is still over 20%. Even the government's U-6 figure is 15%. The number of Americans receiving food stamps is at an all-time high. I am tired of the lies and deception.  

dropout's picture

Fundamentals Indeed!

@ firstsilver

Yes indeedy! All one must concern themselves with is the fundamentals. The rest of the daily movements are of little concern. Keep your eye on the fundos and watch the weekly numbers. Getting caught up in the daily shenanigans will drive you batty!

The fundamentals are slowly, inexorably getting worse. Especially Bennie's devalued currency induced cost push inflation. With each new dollar printed and added to the pile, it cheapens the pile even more. The folks down here on the lower end of Main Street are being smashed by this Fed induced inflation. Groceries are really getting expensive, along with that tank of gas to go get them with. That's if you can afford to fill your tank! Mostly its ten bucks worth here and there. 

Keep your eye on the fundos and the rest will take care of itself. I think the economy just passed Willie E Coyote! Next stop - the sub-basement.

SRSrocco's picture

THE BERNANKE SHUFFLE

ONE STEP FORWARD....TWO STEPS BACK...DO DA...DO DA

Anyone in their right mind would realize that what it taking place at the highest levels of govt is complete INSANITY.  Didn't Bernanke state on FEB 29, that "that QE may not be necessary because of a modest improvement in the statistics of unemployment."  This was the day the CLOWNS took down gold and silver in a big way.

So today, just a little over three weeks later, we get the opposite statement.  With a SLAP ON THE BACK, the markets are pushing commodities and stocks higher.  Then we had this interesting exchange between Rep Trey Gowdy (R-SC) and Tim Geithner last week

Geithner: Debt Limit to Meet All Current and Future Obligations ‘Would Make You Uncomfortable’

March 21, 2012

By Lonely Conservative 4 comments

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) questioned Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner about the debt limit, and asked what it would have to be to meet all current and future obligations. After some hemming and hawing, and pointing out that Congress is in control of the budget, Geithner said he couldn’t say off the top of his head but did admit that it “would make you very uncomfortable.”

Geithner: “That I’d have to get to you in writing, I can’t do it in my head though.”
Gowdy: “How about a round number?”
Geithner: “No idea….
Gowdy: “$20 trillion?”
Geithner: “I just can’t do it in my head.”
Gowdy: “$50 trillion?”
Geithner: “I don’t know”

Gowdy: “A lot? Can we agree it would be a lot?”
Geithner: “It would be a lot. It would make you uncomfortable.”

 

 

JimmyTheHand's picture

Turd

I hope all of you get to feeling better soon :)

Thanks for taking the time to post.  I've been trying to pound it into the heads of those around me to read your blog and help them understand that rates will not be allowed to go higher.  I think they are finally starting to get it!  

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