Turd's Index of Traffic and Sentiment

Everyone knows by now that I use a lot of acronyms. In this case, however, I'm choosing not to because I don't want to mess up all of my search engine metrics.

Let's see, we've got FUBMs, WOPRs and the LHSI. We've even got the EE and the BLSBS. To this list we officially add....uhh-uhmmm...well, you get the point.

Our new indicator attempts to combine the traffic level of this site with the overall sentiment of its readers. Multiply this number by the price of silver and you get a rather useful new measurement. It looks something like this:

(T + S) x P = TITS

T = Traffic relative to benchmark of 25,000 unique visitors/day

S = Turdite sentiment index measured subjectively by proprietor. (10 = Euphoric, 1 = Suicidal)

P = Dollar price of an ounce of silver

For perspective, the following table quantifies our new proprietary index

Date                    Traffic                  Sentiment                  Price                     TITS Value

8/4/11                     1.32                               6                                38.20                          279.624 

9/30/11                   1.13                               3                                 30.05                         124.107

11/10/11                  0.92                              5                                 34.20                         202.464

12/28/11                 0.98                              2                                 27.28                          81.294

2/28/12                  1.33                               7                                  37.21                         309.959

3/20/12                  0.89                              3                                  31.83                        123.818

Clearly, we have found another index which demonstrates that we are once again very close to a short-term bottom in price for the precious metals. Let's see if we can find a few other indicators which confirm our suspicions.

First, there are the lease rate charts. Note that both gold and silver lease rates have moved up rather dramatically in the past week or so. Then note that, since last September, the two bottoms in lease rates preceded bottoms in price by about 2-3 weeks.

paper_3-21amleaseg.jpgpaper_3-21amleases.jpg

How about some price charts combined with the RSIs (relative strength index). As you'll recall, an RSI reading near 30 is generally considered to be a sign of a price bottom.

paper_3-21amgold.jpgpaper_3-21amsilv.jpg

Note that both gold and silver are resting right above what should be very strong support levels. Additionally, both are potentially forming rounded, cup bottoms. If these "teacups" develop and then coincide with the longer-term, reverse head-and-shoulder formations we've been predicting for the last few weeks, both metals would be screaming "BUY!", at least from a technical perspective.

Taken all together...the lease rates, the open interest (which is back to mid-February levels), the charts with RSIs and the TITS...we are obviously very close to a bottom of this latest, manufactured "correction". The charts give me a hunch that there may be one more spike down. Maybe gold spikes to 1625 and silver to 30-31 but that's it. Anyone looking to BTFD (another favorite acronym) should be ready and waiting to pounce if this happens. Regardless, we are very close to a bottom. Be patient and stay confident in your analysis and belief.

Lastly, no sooner did I print some crude oil charts than the Saudis announced that they wanted to ramp up production to attempt to lower price. (Is Ali Al-Naimi a closet Turdite?) The immediate effect of this was to lower price by about $2. Whatever. It just served to make the chart look better. Notice that crude has broken the short-term downtrend line that had contained it for about three weeks. Typically, after such a breakthrough, the commodity in question will dip back down and "ride" the other side of the line lower for a while before finally breaking away and kicking higher. The Saudi headlines accomplished this perfectly. Give it another day or two and I'm confident that crude will charge back higher, toward $108 and the $110. I would only get nervous if crude were to break convincingly down through $105 and $104.

paper_3-21amcrude.jpg

OK, that's all for now. If anyone was offended by the content of this post, I apologize but that's the way it goes. If this analysis seems unconventional, that's because it is. This site is not, and never was intended to be, "conventional" and/or "politically correct". That said, so as not to further offend anyone, please refrain from posting images in the comments that would serve as suitable visual aids for our new index. wink

Have a great day. TF

235 Comments

BrentLawrence's picture

A new acromym and a First!

Acro this one out:
Fund to Underwrite Currently Know European Debts.

This is from the guys over at extraenvironmentalist.com. They interviewed Nicole Foss from The automatic earth and she is still pushing deflation. I am still trying to work out whether we will have inflation or deflation. The two camps are very sure of their positions.

Dr G's picture

First you are.

Turd, between you and I, I'm a huge fan of TITS. Just wanted to clear the air about that. Bummed that I can't post images.

In regards to oil, you nailed it. These manufactured headlines can't hold it down. It's at 106.50 right now, on it's way to 108 and then 110 and then 120 and beyond. A big move in oil, for whatever reason, might be the spur that gets the metals moving again.

Larry L's picture

TURD

I stack when the prices get low like this

Eric Original's picture

rounded cups

Big fan of rounded cups here, just sayin....

tread_w_care's picture

TITS UP!

Gives new meaning to that old favorite euphemism . . . of a dead hog.  Or something.  

Silver Meddler's picture

The Dip Has Already Been Bought!

Hopefully it won't drop much further or I'll have to buy again! wink

Hoping to learn's picture

Clarification please

If your sentiment starts the day out weak or slow and increases quickly , would this be considered Perky TITS ?

worldend666's picture

If you are looking for a

If you are looking for a sentiment indicator try this one:

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=gold+price

Bobbejaan's picture

@Ant .... Re:- Your last thread queries on Silver-Insurance

Quote:
I'll have a further think about the silver. ...<SNIP>... as that insurance policy to get me through a few "Weimar" months of things really go belly up.

I'm in Scotland rather than Aussie, but similar principles apply just about everywhere, so you MAY also find it worthwhile considering UK (Pre-1947) or Aussie (Pre-1966) so-called "Junk Silver" for your purposes as this can often be obtained at discounts or low-premiums to spot-price AND would admirably serve as insurance or alternative-currency (in various USEFUL denominations) in "Weimar/SHTF" type scenarios AND should be easily recogniseable/tradable by your locals AND it is much-less-faked than modern silver-coin-issues such as ASE/Britannia/Maple/Kook/etc.

Here's a few Aussie-ebay examples to give you a taste of the sort of things to look for (TIP = Do NOT pay/buy on supposed "Numismatic" qualities ... ONLY on "Pure Bullion" metal-value ... as that way you can still "potentially score" from the "Odd Numismatic Diamond" you may discover amongst the "Rough" bullion you purchase) :-

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/1946-1963-BULK-LOT-COINS-50-Silver-405gms-/320870304795

.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/1915-1941-BULK-LOT-COINS-92-5-Silver-65gms-/320870301166

.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/10-x-Australian-1966-Round-50-Cent-Coins-80-Silver-/110844972191

http://www.cruzis-coins.com/50c/1966.html

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/9-X-COINS-1966-ROUND-50-cents-80-SILVER-/200728243870

.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australian-Pre-decimal-92-5-SIlver-Florins-x-20-/280849189498

.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australian-Pre-decimal-50-SIlver-Florins-x-65-SELL-BULLION-ONLY-/270939980059

.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/10-FACE-VALUE-AUSSIE-SILVER-SHILLINGS-X-100-COINS-500-FINE-SILVER-/320867841545

.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/HALF-KILO-500gms-92-5-STERLING-SILVER-AUSTRALIAN-COINS-1910-45-/290685265821

.

or "OTHER" Junk :-

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/2-X-PAGNANI-SOLID-BULLION-SILVER-INGOTS-/320868635016

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/2-X-PARLIAMENT-HOUSE-1-OZ-99-9-SILVER-COINS-/320872761979

opticsguy's picture

hey

I brought up the TFMR Karma Contrary Indicator last week.  Not a snappy acronym, I know.

ReachWest's picture

Perky

My nipples are kinda perky today - I'm thinking that might be a signal to call my Bullion Dealer ASAP.

Boggs's picture

First Post

My first post and it's about tits...beautiful!   Even at the highest value of 309.959 I have issued a strong buy and gentle hold.

BagOfGold's picture

TITS?...Just watch the PIIGS!!!...

 

 
Bag Of Gold
 
 
¤'s picture

Apathetic or Whatever

Welcome aboard!

S Roche's picture

HGNSI

Hulbert's Gold Newsletter Sentiment Indicator...is signalling a buy since yesterday when it plunged (-15.7%)

Pretty good contrarian indicator, tracks the recommended exposure by a series of Gold newsletters in the belief that they are invariably wrong.

Wizard's picture

These are my happy Times

For myself these are the happy times. When the EE does a smack down it just makes my day. To able to go add to the stack trading less fiat for silver. yes

Just for general consumption:

I was at one of the local coin shops yesterday taking a friend who wanted to sell some gold jewelry. And these guys have been the fairest in buying metals in my area for a good many years. Pay the closest to spot. While there I was looking through some of the generic silver rounds for unique designs. I asked what the price over spot was for the generic rounds. And the response I received was QUOTE: "I am not sure I want to sell any silver" followed by a moment of silence in the store there were the two guys that run the store and 5 customers and the store went quiet for about 10 seconds. Then the conversation moved to a odd variety coin that the dealer showed me in the case. A Sacajawea Die Adjustment Strike. and the subject of the Silver did not come back up.

Take that experience for what ever it is worth. I went to another shop a couple miles away and grabbed some .999

Pick 52's picture

I agree

Sagging TITS means a bottom is near

SRSrocco's picture

THE DELUSION CONTINUES....

IN 2011, 65% OF AMERICANS HAD FAVORABLE IMPRESSIONS IN RETIREMENT PLANS

After Turd did his wonderful Technical Analysis of traffic and sentiment, I thought I would include what is going on in the minds of the DELUSIONAL PUBLIC.  According to the ICI - Investment Company Institute:

  • Households generally continue to have positive attitudes toward the 401(k) system: In 2011, 65 percent of all U.S. households had favorable impressions of 401(k) and similar plan accounts, compared with 64 percent in 2010. Nearly three-quarters of households expressed confidence DC plan accounts could help participants meet their retirement goals.
  • A vast majority of households agree that preserving the current retirement savings incentives should be a national priority. Eighty-eight percent of households owning DC accounts or IRAs agree with this policy priority, while 76 percent of households without DC accounts or IRAs agree.

--------------------------------------------------------

You can read all about that NONSENSE at the link HERE.

Part of the reason why the U.S. Govt is doing all this MONEY PRINTING and MANIPULATION of the markets is due to the need to placate its citizens.  The whole retirement ponzi scheme has become so big, the FED, U.S. Treasury and member banks have to keep the ILLUSION going to keep the SHEEP from waking up and becoming WOLVES.

This is my graph from the COMING PARADIGM SHIFT IN SILVER article that shows just how distorted American thinking has become in understanding where to throw away their hard earned money.

As we can see from this graph, only a fraction of a fraction are invested in Gold and Silver.  This last article on retirement sentiment actually has shown that Americans are more favorable today towards their PAPER WEALTH than they were in 2010.  Keeping the STOCK MARKET inflated is the upmost importance to the FED and US GOVT.

This is the reason why the CONTINUED QE to infinity is going on as we speak (even though I still see a great deal of discussion on whether or not the FED will start QE3).  The FED wants inflation to go into the stock market, but not into commodities -- hence the big RED CANDLESTICKS in gold & silver. 

Fortunately, for the FED and its member banks, this sort of policy making and manipulation cannot go on forever.  I look forward to the day when that LARGE COLUMN on the right of the graph tries to move into the extremely small ones on the left. 

The STAMPEDE into gold and silver will be something extremely FUN and INTERESTING to watch in these times of INSANITY and MADNESS. 

Straying From the Flock's picture

Tha a word

They keep trying to get uncle Ben to say austerity... But he just can't bring himself to do it. It is as if he were to say it the celing in the committee room would fall on his shiny head.

Pathetic.

RGD

Swift Boat Vet's picture

TITS

No wonder I've been feeling rather listless lately.  Few things bum me out more than saggy TITS.   

I guess I'll wait and eyeball TITS a little longer in anticipation of some perkiness appearing before I 'pull the trigger', so to speak,  on a few ounces of silver.

Swifty

Bobbejaan's picture

@Turd

Quote:
That said, so as not to further offend anyone, please refrain from posting images in the comments that would serve as suitable visual aids for our new index.

WHAT!!!!! .... and miss out on such a titillating challenge! ... Never!! devil :-

A "Silver Tit" Example :-

.

&

.

A "Gold Tit" example :-

.

.

.

.

...... I'll get me coat, Guv'ner wink

Dr G's picture

(No subject)

&#8230;um so yeah. Things I find on the internet.

treefrog's picture

anecdotal evidence supporting TITS index

CAUTION!  a low tits index can be dangerous.

grandma and grandpa had been sweethearts since junior high school.  they ran away at 16 and got married.  after sixty eight years of happy marriage, grandpa died.

grandma was devastated. 

after days of grieving, she decided she simply could not go on without him.  grandpa had left behind a pistol, so she decided to end it all by shooting herself in the heart - that being what was broken.

since she had dropped out of school to get married, her knowledge of anatomy was limited.  she called the clinic and asked the doctor where the heart was located.  he told her that it was located beneath the left breast.

that evening grandma was admitted to the hospital with a gunshot wound to the left kneecap.

mohanu01's picture

putting tits aside for a moment...

Something been on my mind apart from tits- After reading currency wars by Jim Rickards and listening to people (that i consider they know what their on about)- it seems that the next STRONG rally will be when QE3 or whatever they call the next money printing will be announced. Predictions are that it will be sometime in May (maybe as early as April and as late as July). 

Now the important question- Will the Cartels allow for another rally and smash it down again before they announce QE3? or will they keep the price range bound at current levels for a month or 2 or 3 until they announce it. 

I dont belive they will anounce QE3 while prices are near 1,800 so they will cause another raid?. 

Turd what are your thoughts??? 

dudestacker's picture

Repost--Stack for the kids

 
 

Even if one has to or chooses to stop stacking for oneself, there must be some kids you know w/ b-days, graduations, etc who can use a few ASE's.

Blessed w/ 1st grandchild in 2010. To commemorate his awesomeness, I bought him a 5 oz Apmex bar and a 1/10th oz Year of the Dragon. Both were just about the same price. When he becomes old enough, I thought it would be fun for us to watch how their values waxed and waned relative to each other. Right now, gold is slightly ahead.

And he still has the 2 ASE's I gave him for his first b-day. I shudder when I think of the heap made from all those toys that are either broken, never-did-like, or ignored-for-newer that he got then.

(I remember my Dad commenting {circa 1957} "Consider yourself fortunate. When I was a kid all we had was a sandpile. We used little stones for pigs and big stones for cows. Made fences w/ sticks.")

Obviously we've come too far in our orgiastic materialism. I just hope we don't have to go that far back before we strike a sustainable balance

Turd Ferguson's picture

From DrudgeReport

MODERATOR

This ought to help Franco-U.S. relations...

FLASH: U.S. SENT FRENCH SHOOTING SUSPECT BACK TO FRANCE FROM AFGHANISTAN... DEVELOPING...

AlienEyes's picture

I think I got it !

It's all starting to make sense now.....
 
O'Bummer = a total boob.
 
Biden = an even bigger boob
 
Bernake = "tits on a boar hog"
 
US$ = boob bait
 
socialists = sucking on the government tit
dropout's picture

Saudi Oil Against the Wall

The Saudi's have had to inject massive amounts of water into their oil fields, in order to increase the recovery rate. This has been ongoing for a number of years now. When they announce that they are increasing production, what that truly means, is they are increasing the amount of water injection!

The interesting aspect of this process, is that each time the injectable mass is increased, the resultant recovery rate time frame shortens! That is to say the more they inject - the more they must increase that injection for the same result, each time with a shorter duration.

They have now injected so much water into the oil strata, that the resultant pumped product, must go through a water/oil separation process, before being sent to any further refining. The ratio of oil-to-water that enters the separation process is steadily degrading, making it progressively more expensive to recover. Soon the EROI will be poorer than that of oil recovery from oil sands.

When this event occurs, you may rest assured that it will be kept secret and the information protected from leaking out, with all possible means. Peak oil anyone? Do your own digging and have a peak under the carpet where all the dirt is swept out of sight - out of mind! Much higher oil prices coming.

Punk-Assets's picture

The boobie power. My

The boobie power. My precious. 

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