The Ides of March

Well, here we are. We've arrived at one of The Turd's favorite weeks of the year. Here in America, the third week of March means two things: Saint Patrick's Day and the beginning of the NCAA college basketball tournament. Turd is very excited. However, Turd is also nervous and agitated, too. To help me cope, I thought I'd cook up this quick post before the week gets started.

First of all, regarding the metals, everything looks great as we enter the week. The fundos continue to be profoundly positive. The CoTs took a dramatic turn toward a bullish sentiment. Even the charts looks great:

  1. Support held at roughly 1680 and 32.80.
  2. The FUBMs on Friday were very, very impressive.
  3. Gold even managed to close UP on the week.

The only thing WE DON'T KNOW is how the Greek CDS trigger will impact the market. Will it be almost a non-event or will liquidity "dominoes" begin falling, leading to a global margin call meltdown. At this particular time, I don't know. What I do know is this: I'm not selling any of my phyzz, not a single ounce, and I will simply use any extended weakness to add to my stack.

Here are your charts. They clearly show that we are on the edge of breaking back higher. Once this happens, the stage will be set for Battle Royale II.

paper_3-12goldh.jpgpaper_3-12goldd.jpg

paper_3-12silvh.jpgpaper_3-12silvd.jpg

One more thing, please take time to click the link below and read the article. The topic is something I plan to devote more energy toward in the coming weeks. The world is changing much faster than most folks (myself excluded) ever thought it could. You must be prepared for the consequences of these changes.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-10-10/why-china-dumping-dollar-and-why-you-should-read-weimar-republic

I hope you're rested and ready. This week sure has the potential to be a doozy. TF

147 Comments

I Run Bartertown's picture

Beware

the Firstsurprise

The China article is good. I still had some questions about just how much they need us buying their stuff. I've seen a range of numbers on that. I think they might be less impacted by losing us as a market than we might think.

xaviercromartie's picture

DJIA

ThoughtCriminal's picture

Options Book?

Turd:  What's a good options book to read for a guy to learn how to trade those babies? 

zilverreiger's picture

http://www.optiontradingtips.

http://www.optiontradingtips.com/options101/index.html

despite the explanations I find them too complex and risky, epsecially now you should be carefull when the market can tank any minute

zilverreiger's picture

Timezone headsup

US went to DST, europe not, so US trading opens and hour earlier from a european perspective

exiledbear's picture

(No subject)

¤'s picture

Thanks TF

a-beautiful-day-at-mont.jpg

The Kingdom of TF in the Land of Fa       

A secure kingdom occupying the high ground that exhibits traits of self-sufficiency and community.

The main thread being the central tower and the descending walls it's forums and down into the threads.

All hail the Fa-King!

We know who the sheeple are wink

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/140977#comment-140977

Santa's Elf's picture

I share your enthusiasm Turd

St Patty's Day and March Madness...  Sorry Andy, but this song wasn't meant to be sung at Christmas.

Titus Andronicus's picture

I disagree about the COT being bullish

Just like a quickly dropping commercial net position was not bearish in Jan and Feb, a quickly rising net position is not necessarily bullish now.  The commercial net position has been rather routine since the beginning of the year.

The commercial net position will jockey up and down inversely to the price.  It is only when the net position gets close to extremes that it becomes a more reliable indicator.

So I don't think the COT can really be used at this time to determine the short or medium term direction of gold and silver prices.

Just my opinion.

Other than that point, I agree with what Turd wrote above.

I'm long, but very nervously so.  (Which probably means I'm too long.)

Who knows how this Greek mess will sort itself out?  I don't think it is possible to say.  I agree with Santa on this point.

(But can I add a guess?  I guess that we will not see the monster drop in gold and silver that some are projecting.  If we do drop, we don't drop TOO much more -- if at all.)

cpnscarlet's picture

@Santa's Elf - Not your

@Santa's Elf - Not your fault, but you managed to post the one song that I absolutely hate the most of anything musical out of the mind of man. It's the epitome of all that's wrong with the "Holiday" season. Argghhhh.. Wretch.. Splattttt..... Ughhhh.

Velocity's picture

12th ...wouldn't want to be 13th, bad luck!

Thanks  Mr T for a great (bullish) Sunday night read and pick-me-up :)

One thing that troubles me as much as the CDS trigger event (there's a 'black swan' event none of us thought the bent ISDA would ever admit to) is the stock indexes have been running on fumes for friggin months and due a collapse 

(xaviercromartie a few posts above has the right idea with the Dow and Jaws chart:)

ie. i'm in schizoid two-minds at this point if we aren't due a big stock correction/collapse possibly next week which'll bring PM's down again!!

Anyone any guesses feel very welcome to throw your oar in . . . 

 
 
 
Ircsum's picture

Time to be cautious?

Thanks, TF. I see the majority of Bloomberg's 'analysts' are bullish for next week:

"Gold traders are the most bullish in four months after investors accumulated more metal than ever and hedge funds raised bets on gains to a five-month high.

Sixteen of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and one was neutral, the highest proportion since Nov. 11. Investors increased their holdings in exchange- traded products backed by bullion for seven consecutive weeks and now hold 2,407 metric tons valued at $131 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/gold-bulls-strengthening-as-bullion-wagers-reach-131-billion-commodities.html

I get a little worried when the majority are bullish.....sucking in more sheep to be sheared? indecision

Puck T. Smith's picture

La, la, la, waiting for the

La, la, la, waiting for the Asians...

Strongsidejedi's picture

About those stock market prices and PM prices

The down turn can not occur until after options contracts are a lock.

They will pump the stocks and the precious metals prices for another 3-4 days.

Friday's close will be higher than today.

However, the third week of this month should see sell off and strong dollar.

I'm guessing that the timing of the Greek CDS auction on March 19 is no fluke.

Santa's Elf's picture

@cpn

Hahaha....truth is, I too dislike the song, but I LOVE this time of year!  Glad I could spread a little holiday cheer to your neck of the woods.  Hahaha

Be Prepared's picture

@Turd - No Pots of Gold... if the Fed has its Way!

Michael's picture

Has anyone listened to, or

Has anyone listened to, or have an opinion on, Ben Fulford's strange interview of March 6th?  The interviewer was abominable, the interview interminable, and the information incredible - as in beyond belief.  Perhaps this has been discussed elsewhere; I almost never read in the forums anymore.   ;-)

13th - Anonymous message

15th - Ides of March

20th - Greek rollover

22nd - Skull & Bones magic number

23rd - Game's on

- Ol' Michael

===

"...paper is paper and money is money..."  - Thomas Paine

TheGoodDoctor's picture

@Michael No, but a link would

@Michael No, but a link would be nice! smiley

Michael's picture

Did I mention Jubilee?

You've been warned.  :-)
 
P.S.  Like an earlier poster, I read nearly everything you - my friends - say and I admire - in my own way - the Turd and his band of merry traders, er, pranksters, er followers along the Watchtower.   And I consider myself lucky that I can learn by standing on the backs of giants. 

"...paper is paper and money is money."  - Thomas Paine

ClinkinKY's picture

Glad I held off on "pulling the trigger":)

La, la, la, waiting for the

La, la, la, waiting for the Asians...

Of course, it's still "early".

(Time stamp on my post says 5:22, but here in DST country it is actually 6:22)

notmessenger's picture

Military Now Recruiting FEMA Camp Guards

Did you see these links posted in one of the comments of the Zero Hedge article Turd posted?  Read the first link - it's got a little bit of length to it but will leave you feeling very worried and likely pissed that we've gotten to this point in time.  I believe that we are very likely headed for some bad times in this country and while I've been taking steps to prepare I am afraid that if something like what is talked about in the links below comes to be then no amount of preparation will have mattered.  Well, the mental fortitude gained prior to such an event will not be a disadvantage as well as I would have rather prepared rather that not, but thinking about how bad it could truly get certainly puts things in perspective.  I would hope that more citizens than not would resist why whatever means available but I'm not sure that will happen.

http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2011/12/14/18702758.php

http://www.goarmy.com/careers-and-jobs/browse-career-and-job-categories/legal-and-law-enforcement/internment-resettlement-specialist.html

LaMachinna's picture

CNBC/Gold Story (again???)

is the tf hat too tight again?  Isn't the CNBC video/story, you know the one w/Pisani in the gold vault with the ummm, well strange serial number, the same one from several months ago?

Is that some kind of message?  I know its very tight.  But, why is CNBC going to replay it as like it is a new video.....

I'm going to take my crazy pills now, don't worry  sighsad

LaMachinna's picture

someone, pls

shoot me now, k?

ClinkinKY's picture

OT, but too funny to be confined to Forums

curly's picture

Nice international gold coin collection video

Nice Au porn video on youtube...The guy shows his collection...

Dr Jerome's picture

familiar

This AG cap at 34.40 looks awfully familiar...

CauseChange's picture

Feels like things are going to start flying now

Good post Turd, so much news coming out, feels like things are speeding up now..  these coming weeks are going to be eventful!

Magpie's picture

Mods: Ok to remove if too O/T

Today is March 11.  One year ago an earthquake shook Japan, and the tsunami that followed killed thousands.  The nuclear power plant at Fukushima was damaged beyond repair.  Spent fuel rods were ejected from their containment vessels and are still littering the site: they've just been covered with dirt.  

Nuclear specialists agree corium remains a threat reactors still in meltdown:

http://enenews.com/french-nuclear-specialists-agree-corium-remains-a-threat-reactors-still-in-meltdown-says-expert-molten-lava-could-break-through-at-any-point

Fukushima having lasting impact on Americans:

http://enenews.com/survey-nuclear-industry-wrong-fukushima-having-major-lasting-impact-americans

There's a video with the story.  I didn't just put up the video because I wanted you to read what the Japanese doctor said about the woman in the video.

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2012/03/al-jazeera-reports-on-health-problems.html

Please say a prayer today for Japan, and the world.  

Nuclear energy will change the world forever, and not in the way the 'experts" told us it would.

Moderator Holliday's picture

Magpie

MODERATOR

No problem here. That's very thoughtful of you imho.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"Doc" prefers to keep his virtual "Peacemaker" out of sight and holstered.

tpbeta's picture

Tomorrow will be very interesting

I have a lot of dry powder (all of it in fact) waiting on the hope of a liquidity beat down. But now that I'm on the eve of it, I don't quite believe it's going to happen.  Que Sera. Look forward to reading the update tomorrow night anyhow.

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