Is It Monday Already?

Sheesh! After last week, I was really looking forward to some down time and now, all of a sudden, it's Monday. Oh well, not much we can do except deal with it.

Our precious precious metals traded lower overnight in another London goon mugging that began exactly at 3:00 am EST and had, by 4:30, trimmed another $15 off of price. On the bright side, however, gold once again found solid buying support just below 1700 and has now moved back above the important technical level of 1705. This is very encouraging as the more times gold successfully tests 1680+, the more likely that this storm will pass and gold will resume its upward climb.

paper_3-5amgoldh.jpgpaper_3-5amgoldd.jpg

Silver, too, was driven lower overnight, the decline beginning precisely at 3:00 a.m. Like gold, it then found strong support right where it should, namely $34. It looks pretty good here but, like gold, I must caution you against getting antsy. Cartel history suggests that they wouldn't go to all the trouble of rigging things lower last week to simply walk away this week. We must be on the lookout for further attacks. Therefore, hold your fire for now. I'd buy gold if it gets back above $1730 OR if it dips toward $1680 and then $1650. Similar thing in silver: Not much reason to buy it right here. Let's see if more pressure comes in and we can get it between 33 and 34.

paper_3-5amsilvh.jpgpaper_3-5amsilvd.jpg

Another factor that may keep the pressure on the PMs is weakness in crude. Though I'm convinced that crude is heading significantly higher from here, the chart below suggests a downward bias for the next few days. Note the peak to $110. The two-day decline to $106 and then the two-day recovery which was immediately pulled back on Friday. This market looks ripe for a $3 selloff from here, down to $103-104. As you might imagine, declining crude will serve to pressure PM prices, too.

paper_3-5amcrude.jpg

Next, I'd just like to wrap up with a bow the giant sack of manure that was last week. First of all, this quote via KWN of Eric Sprott regarding the rationale behind the ongoing manipulation of precious metals:

James Turk always says, ‘It’s a managed retreat here.  The price of gold and silver go up every year, but they don’t want it to get out of hand.’  As everyone is aware, on Wednesday, silver was breaking out, gold was approaching $1,800 and I just think it wasn’t allowed to happen because central banks try to keep control over precious metals so people don’t see them as an alternative to paper currencies.
All of this happens on the same day in which the LTRO lent out another $800 billion, which is just ridiculous.  These things always seem to happen, sort of counter-trend, that whenever you think something should go up, pretty well every time the price goes down.  Because, the authorities don’t want a linkage between monetary irresponsibility and the price of precious metals going up.  So they whack it on a day when it obviously should have gone up.”

This is exactly right and you should recall similar market action back in September when the Swiss National Bank devalued the Swissie by 10% yet gold inexplicably tumbled. Furthermore, the media SPIN on the selling of PMs back on Wednesday was that The Bernank had hinted at tightening. First of all, he did no such thing and any rational, objective person knows that he can't and won't "tighten" ever again. Additionally, if The Bernank had, in fact, indicated a change in monetary policy was coming , we would have seen correlated action in other, "liquidity-sensitive trades" such as copper...

paper_3-5amcop.jpg

the grains...

paper_3-5ambean.jpgpaper_3-5amcorn.jpg

and/or stocks.

paper_3-5ames.jpg

Then there was this week's CoT report. I summarized my thoughts in the comments section of the previous post but will re-print them here:

"Just looking over the latest CoT. Brutal! Remember, these numbers are basis Tuesday night, right after the big suck-in day but right before the big beat-down day.

Gold large spec long  = 231,050  +16,707 on the week or +7.22%

Gold small spec long = 70,372   +3,949 on the week or +5.61%

Gold Cartel net short = 245,351  +16,049 on the week or +6.54%

Silver large spec long = 38,012   +3,193 on the week or + 8.40%

Silver small spec long = 24,180   +1,696 on the week or +7.01%

Silver Cartel net short = 44,593   +5,405 on the week or +12.12%(!!!)

​It is 100% clear to me that the trap was set on Tuesday. Silver was allowed to escape to the upside in order to entice fresh longs who would be blown out on Wednesday.

I am very much looking forward to next Friday's CoT. If I am correct, then we should expect to see a significant reduction in the Cartel net short position in both silver and gold."

In fact, we already saw a significant reduction in OI on Wednesday and Thursday alone. Gold has already fallen by 22,000 contracts. This trend will no doubt continue today and through tomorrow.

The silver OI merits its own paragraph, though. At the close Monday, total silver OI was 113,306. After price was allowed to rise uncontrollably (up $1.62) on Tuesday in order to suck in a few extra longs before the planned attack on Wednesday, total OI was 115,866. By Thursday night, silver had been forced back down $1.53 and total OI was back to Monday levels at 113,669. As you know, silver was down $1.13 on Friday and we'll get Friday's closing OI numbers at about 2:30 this afternoon. I expect to see a drop in OI back toward 111,000.

Anyway, there is no doubt in my mind that the events of Wednesday were a 100%, coordinated and planned attack on the precious metals, consistent with the U.S. Federal Reserve policy of price suppression through managed ascent. From here, we must be alert for additional, follow-through attacks before we can declare a "bottom" and begin anew to aggressively buy.

Just a couple of housekeeping items before I take my leave. First, our Master of The Photoshop, "Pining", drew up this beauty back on Saturday. I like it so much I thought I should re-print it here. Pretty sure that's me in the middle along with Ned and Andy. Pretty cools stuff.

medium_tombstonefinal.jpg

And our old pal, Jim Comiskey, has landed on his feet and is back up and running at ADM Investor Services in Chicago. He's even restarted his YouTube channel and you can find it here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/JimComiskeyMetals?feature=watch

Way to go, Jim. Glad to have you back!

OK, that's all for now. Have a great day but stay alert for further Cartel attacks. TF

139 Comments

thesandbox's picture

AHA!

AHA!

BASEBALL 13's picture

Do I hear a second?

Good Morning Turd!

Good Luck to all in trading this week!

BB13

achmachat's picture

:-) i actually made thurd!

it's just another manic monday!

jlev's picture

first?

damn...missed it

Dr G's picture

.

Frickin' manic mondays. :( Glad to hear that Jim C. is back in the game.

The downward pressure on the metals looks unrelenting. Those that purchase small orders multiple times each week should keep purchasing those small increments (that's what I do). Those waiting to buy large should wait for Turd to pick his bottom (never gets old).

Turd Ferguson's picture

Just be patient

MODERATOR

Remember, The Cartels have that "Mississippi Leg Hound" blood in them. Once they lay into ya, it's best just to let them finish their business.

Response to: .
boatman's picture

from last thread

but its real good

don coxe 'scenario could not be better for gold...miners set to take off':

i remind myself don called the current run up since dec 27 on jan 3

http://www.bellwebcasting.ca/audience/lobby/index.asp?eventid=70081727&lang=english&stage=&rndkey=&referral=9576836&sLoginVisible=

thesandbox's picture

EXK and AUQ

probably missed at the end of last thread but both look to be on sale today as well. Just too bad I bought more around 11 instead of selling at the time...oh well. Got to have some fun with the 401k match but seems like a day late makes you a dollar short in the game. ;)

Diamond's picture

Sprottt on miners

Turd, I think in that KWN quote above, it's Sprott who said that in his interview about the managed retreat last week.

Sprott, in that interview, even mentioned that he has recently sold some of his physical silver to pick up some silver miners. He believes the miners are set to outperform physical. Kind of like what Coxe is saying.

¤'s picture

Greek surprise this week?

Thanks for the new thread TF.

I have a feeling something is going to rear it's head up soon enough regarding Greece.

Below is a totally unrelated issue about who is going to get the chance of a lifetime to gather massive amounts of properties with Govt. aid.   It isn't you and I.

Unless your a large bank or a big time landlord, the taxpayer and the people who were evicted from these homes were fleeced and were never offered these kind of terms are the one's who really got screwed after the fact. Why are they not offering the exact same deal to homeowners directly???

The creation of landlord Barons has begun.

What about the homeowners? Why did they wait so long to offer such a program as extensive as this?  This is way different then the original HAMP.

Election year cronyism towards the banks...again!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

 

Boom-Era Property Speculators to Get Foreclosure Aid

The Obama administration will extend mortgage assistance for the first time to investors who bought multiple homes before the market imploded, helping some speculators who drove up prices and inflated the housing bubble.

Landlords can qualify for up to four federally-subsidized loan workouts starting around May, as long as they rent out each house or have plans to fill them, under the revamped Home Affordable Modification Program, also known as HAMP, according to Timothy Massad, the Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial stability. The program pays banks to reduce monthly payments by cutting interest rates, stretching terms, and forgiving principal.

The government’s need to protect neighborhoods from blight and renters from eviction by keeping the current owners in place is outweighing concern that taxpayers will end up bailing out real-estate investors.... 

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/138016#comment-138016

FriedEggs's picture

Au/Ag Range Bound?

Until Obama gets in?

Which isn't far away... 35-40 weeks...

.

Start of week 10... here we go...

.

Fried(e)

Diamond's picture

Is it really Monday?

This is a fitting song for today, and a good one. Old David Crosby and his PERRO band:

indosil's picture

Indian Gold PLUNDER

Hi Turd,

       I am patient..should $33..i really don't want to c it there....be the correct buying level.....????The Government of India is planning to lax down the rules for banks to give paper shit for GOLD as MORTGAGE!!!!Also the rules for confiscation in case of default will become much easier for the banks....so another novel method by the INDIAN CARTEL HAND..to  lay their hands on the shiny metal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

firefly's picture

Sprott

@Diamond

Yes, I thought it was Sprott as well. I listened to the interview a few hours ago.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Duly Noted

MODERATOR

Turd moving too fast again. Thanks.

Response to: Sprott
Groaner's picture

Yup got a fake out this morning.

3:30 smack down then it went up at 8:20 but hit hard at the other good old boy time of 10 am.

Mondays normally stink anyways.

BagOfGold's picture

Are we there yet?...

Up...or down?!?...

Bag Of Gold

Doc1800's picture

33.80 catcher's mit activated

take a bite at every support level now until i am full- good luck folks

Groaner's picture

Apple down $10?

That will take 20 points off the Naz.

cpnscarlet's picture

Pretty Ticked Off Today

It was a lousy weekend for digesting news, opinions, and facts. The biggest fact is that the Cartel is still very much in charge of the paper market because the shills at the CFTC are asleep and content to stay that way. That's where my vitriol is aimed  - Chilton, Gensler, et al - and I hope they get what they truly deserve.

But another thing - let me get very partisan here - that has me very anger is the way some (here and over at ZH) are clawing into Limbaugh for calling this lefty bitch Fluke "a slut". Sorry folks, but this is really a time to examine who's becoming part of the circular firing squad. Let me point out that over the last few months, Limbaugh has been quoting ZH articles quite a bit. For WB7 to tear into him the way he did this weekend at ZH, he should be banned for a week. DO you like or hate Limbaugh? WTF cares! What he did to Fluke was perfect political commentary and satire. What's crazier? Limbaugh calling her a slut and requesting YT vids of her sex exploits in trade for free condoms? Or is it having to listen to a whiny leftist bitch demand that I pay for her jollies??? This whole contraceptive debate is the creation of the radical left Alinksy-ites to take our debate away from the important issues. Limbaugh is simply showing us all the absurdity of the whole subject.

WB7 political cartoons were a victory for the "everybody but Ron Paul is a tool" side. And if that's how you view the world, you're the rigid, inflexible thinker, not me.

JimmyTheHand's picture

Commodity Markets down just in time for Greece

I'm personally expecting a massive smackdown this week every day and then more once the Greek stuff has been decided. 

Gold and Silver must be made to look as bad as possible this week.  I mean of all the weeks this year, prior to this week, this week stands out to me as a definitive week.  Something will be decided one way or the other and once the decision has been made, no more limbo land surrounding Greece right?

Either it defaults or it doesn't.  Stuff hits the fan either way because what they force on people will be the deciding factor that the markets go in.  They can pretend all they like and not triggers CDS, but as soon as they do that the swamp will drain.  If they trigger CDS... ten kinds of hell will be immediately unleashed on the markets.

Just my take. 

Remember what Jim Sinclair said, the hands holding physical gold and silver once this mess is done will be the strongest hands on earth. 

TheSilverJournal.com's picture

The Greek debt deal is

The Greek debt deal is turning into a hair situation and the may not get enough investors to accept the bond swap by Thursday. If in fact enough acceptance is failed to be gained on the bond deal by Thursday at 3:00p and silver takes a hit, it may make a great entry point to buy silver. Even if there isn't enough investors that accept the deal by Thursday, there's still time for the money printers to scramble and complete the bailout by the big March 20 date. I have to think Greece will get it's bailout and make it's March 20 payment because the only way to keep the fiat ponzi going is to keep the malinvestments in debt hidden.

TheSilverJournal.com

¤'s picture

Greece is way overdue for a real event

Why is Greece not the New Argentina?

As the following chart shows, sovereign defaults have been a common feature of the global financial landscape, even under the so-called Great Moderation of the past 30 years.

sovereign-defaults.jpg

A decade ago, Argentina – an economy roughly the size of Greece’s – defaulted on $82 billion in external debts. Creditors howled, and ultimately suffered a haircut of 70% (the same losses contemplated in the latest Greek deal). Yet the world went on, and few commentators even then expected the Argentine contagion to spread beyond that unfortunate country’s borders.

Not only did the world not come to an end following Argentina’s default, but the country quickly regained access to the world’s capital markets. As the Bank of England observed,

it only took defaulters three and half months, on average, to regain market access after defaulting during the 1990s compared with more than 4 ½ years during the 1980s.

So the question remains: why is the case of Greece not like that of Argentina?

The answer is two-fold:

First, whatever haircut Greece extracts from its bondholders, other heavily indebted countries will demand equal or better treatment. Portugal – and more significantly Italy or Spain – have no reason to pay creditors 50 cents on the dollar if Greece only pays 30.

Second, CDSs have amplified and concentrated risk in ways that even central bankers do not understand. How much insurance (CDSs) have European and American banks sold against the possibility of Greek default?

No one knows.

Who will have to pay these claims when they come due?

No one knows.

But given the history of the financial crisis, we can only suspect that a) the number is much larger than the central bankers have let on; and b) an actual default will set off an unpredictable cascade of counterparty failure.

http://nomoneynoworries.wordpress.com/

JimmyTheHand's picture

@TheSilverJournal.com

Are you thinking it would come in the form of another seperate bailout package?  If so who would fund it?  They are already in Selective Default so I don't see them getting funding for other Euro countries, the US won't help and I guess that leaves China?

¤'s picture

Mundane Monday/List of sovereign debt defaults or restructuring

(Check out Spain's history. Central and South America lead the way)

List of sovereign debt defaults or debt restructuring

The following list includes actual sovereign defaults and debt restructuring of independent countries from 1300 till 2008:[15]

Africa
  • Algeria (1991)
  • Angola (1976,[16] 1985, 1992-2002[16])
  • Cameroon (2004)[16]
  • Central African Republic (1981, 1983)
  • Congo (Kinshasa) (1979)[16]
  • Cote d'Ivoire (1983, 2000)
  • Gabon (1999–2005)[16]
  • Ghana (1979, 1982)[16]
  • Liberia (1989–2006)[16]
  • Madagascar (2002)[16]
  • Mozambique (1980)[16]
  • Rwanda (1995)[16]
  • Sierra Leone (1997–1998)[16]
  • Sudan (1991)[16]
  • Tunisia (1867)
  • Egypt (1876, 1984)
  • Kenya (1994, 2000)
  • Morocco (1983, 1994, 2000)
  • Nigeria (1982, 1986, 1992, 2001, 2004)
  • South Africa (1985, 1989, 1993)
  • Zambia (1983)
  • Zimbabwe (1965, 2000, 2006[16] (see Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe)
Americas
  • Antigua and Barbuda (1998–2005)[16]
  • Argentina (1827, 1890, 1951, 1956, 1982, 1989, 2002-2005[16] (see Argentine debt restructuring))
  • Bolivia (1875, 1927,[16] 1931, 1980, 1986, 1989)
  • Brazil (1898, 1902, 1914, 1931, 1937, 1961, 1964, 1983, 1986-1987,[16] 1990[16])
  • Canada (Alberta) (1935)[16]
  • Chile (1826, 1880, 1931, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1972, 1974, 1983)
  • Colombia (1826, 1850, 1873, 1880, 1900, 1932, 1935)
  • Costa Rica (1828, 1874, 1895, 1901, 1932, 1962, 1901, 1932, 1962, 1981, 1983, 1984)
  • Dominica (2003–2005)[16]
  • Dominican Republic (1872, 1892, 1897, 1899, 1931, 1975-2001[16] (see Latin American debt crisis), 2005)
  • Ecuador (1826, 1868, 1894, 1906, 1909, 1914, 1929, 1982, 1984, 2000, 2008)
  • El Salvador (1828, 1876, 1894, 1899, 1921, 1932, 1938, 1981-1996[16])
  • Grenada (2004–2005)[16]
  • Guatemala (1933, 1986, 1989)
  • Guyana (1982)
  • Honduras (1828, 1873, 1981)
  • Jamaica (1978)
  • Mexico (1827, 1833, 1844, 1850,[16] 1866, 1898, 1914, 1928-1930s, 1982)
  • Nicaragua (1828, 1894, 1911, 1915, 1932, 1979)
  • Panama (1932, 1983, 1983, 1987, 1988-1989[16])
  • Paraguay (1874, 1892, 1920, 1932, 1986, 2003)
  • Peru (1826, 1850,[16] 1876, 1931, 1969, 1976, 1978, 1980, 1984)
  • Surinam (2001–2002)[16]
  • Trinidad and Tobago (1989)
  • United States (1779 (devaluation of Continental Dollar), 1790, 1862,[17] 1933 (see Executive Order 6102),[16] 1971 (Nixon Shock)
    • 9 states (1841–1842)[16]
    • 10 states and many local governments (1873-83 or 1884)[16]
  • Uruguay (1876, 1891, 1915, 1933, 1937,[16]1983, 1987, 1990, 2003)
  • Venezuela (1826, 1848, 1860, 1865, 1892, 1898, 1982, 1990, 1995-1997,[16] 1998,[16] 2004)
Asia
  • China (1921, 1932,[16] 1939)
  • Japan (1942, 1946-1952[16])
  • India (1958, 1969[citation needed], 1972)
  • Indonesia (1966, 1998, 2000, 2002)
  • Iran (1992)
  • Iraq (1990)
  • Jordan (1989)
  • Kuwait (1990–1991)[16]
  • Myanmar (1984,[16] 1987,[16] 2002)
  • Mongolia (1997–2000)[16]
  • The Philippines (1983)
  • Solomon Islands (1995–2004)[16]
  • Sri Lanka (1980, 1982, 1996[16])
  • Vietnam (1975)[16]
Europe
  • Albania (1990)
  • Austria-Hungary (1796, 1802, 1805, 1811, 1816, 1868)
  • Austria (1938, 1940, 1945[16])
  • Bulgaria (1932[citation needed], 1990)
  • Croatia (1993–1996)[16]
  • Denmark (1813)[16] (see Danish state bankruptcy of 1813)
  • England (1340, 1472, 1596)
  • France (1558, 1624, 1648, 1661, 1701, 1715, 1770, 1788, 1812)
  • Germany (1932, 1939, 1948[16])
    • Hesse (1814)
    • Prussia (1683, 1807, 1813)
    • Schleswig-Holstein (1850)
    • Westphalia (1812)
  • Greece (1826, 1843, 1860, 1893, 1932)
  • Hungary (1932, 1941)
  • The Netherlands (1814)
  • Poland (1936, 1940, 1981)
  • Portugal (1560, 1828, 1837, 1841, 1845, 1852, 1890)
  • Romania (1933, 1982, 1986)
  • Russia (1839, 1885, 1918, 1947,[16] 1957,[16] 1991, 1998)
  • Spain (1557, 1575, 1596, 1607, 1627, 1647, 1809, 1820, 1831, 1834, 1851, 1867, 1872, 1882, 1936-1939[16])
  • Sweden (1812)
  • Turkey (1876, 1915, 1931, 1940, 1978, 1982)
  • Ukraine (1998–2000)[16]
  • United Kingdom (1749, 1822, 1834, 1888–89, 1932)[16]
  • Yugoslavia (1983)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default

NW VIEW's picture

@cpnscarlet & Ms. Fluke

Forty years ago Ms. Fluke would have been laughed out of congress but she is a product of the continual entitlement mentality of a nation that has lost its way.  The deep pit that we have dug has several people who hold the shovels. If we get a long rope and slide down to the current bottom and turn on a light in that darkness, we will see Ellen,Barny, Anderson & Rosie digging deeper and on their left - the EE. and the Banksters, to their left- half naked reality t.v. elite,  degenerating the culture, to their left - the carry over of the 60's free love, free sex, drugs, bra burning live for today only youth,  who run the country today.

Yes the pit is getting deeper every day and hell is not far below them.  We cannot allow their ways to rob us of our values and inner Peace.    jmo

BagOfGold's picture

It's a "Bankster's Paradise"!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Labeling somebody a slut

Really REALLY don't want this thread to go south on a side discussion, however…

The reason it's both libelous and, plainly, despicable to label Fluke a "slut" and a "prostitute" is because she is, in spite of speaking out publicly, a private citizen.  Unlike celebrities and politician, virtually nobody knows a thing about her private life, so when a very public figure such as Limbaugh throws labels like that around, they are MUCH more damaging to a person's reputation.

Larry Flynt was able to publish a parody of Jerry Falwell having sex with his mother in an outhouse for that very reason.  Because Jerry Falwell was well known, no reasonable person took that published statement as anything but the parody (in poor taste) that it was.  Being a private citizen, Fluke is not well known like Jerry Falwell was, so when Rush published, essentially, the statement that she was a slut and a prostitute (or like one), such a statements are much more likely to be BELIEVED by the public as fact then if the same were published about somebody well known by them.  Statements I've read on this very board show that many here believe she really is a loose slut.

Basically, it's okay to make as defamatory a remark as you like against well known public figures and celebrities because they have chosen by their career choices to make the facts of their life public, whether they like it or not, but it's not okay to make such remarks against private citizens that are not well known.

And just because she decided to speak out does not make her 'well known'.  Rush has every right to disagree with her and make fun of / deride her public statements and positions, but he has no right to attack her personally.  Personal attacks are the hallmark of a weak argument

Incidentally, at the time of his death, Jerry Falwell and Larry Flynt had developed a unique friendship between them, to the point that when Falwell died, Flynt published an obit titled "My Friend, Jerry Falwell"

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-op-flynt20may20,0,2751741.story

diegeiro's picture

Burzynski movie

Http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/137948#comment-137948

Orange posted a link to the Burzynski movie on the last thread. you can also find the movie on net flicks to watch for free. if you already understand that his antineoplaston treatment for cancer works, especially for brain cancer, you can skip the beginning and start in a good 45 minutes to an hour into it (not sure the exact time) That gets you into all the legal hassles the man has been through, how HHS and others tried to steal the patent, etc. Definitely worth watching just to understand how the EE controls and limits our ability to receive the healthcare of our choice.

Am working on dumping cable tv, getting tv over the air and using more blue ray and net flicks. I am just not sure I want to switch to an Internet company that never answers a phone.

Mudsharkbytes's picture

@ BagOfGold - REALLY a Banker's Paradise

No banker left behind…

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