$34.40 Hard Cap Still Holding in Silver

Wow, what an afternoon for gold! After toiling all day between 1750 and 1760, someone or something finally got sick of Cartel's cap and blew it right off.

Below are two, 3-minute charts that I posted in the comments section of the previous post. Always nice to see surprise spikes to the UPside:

paper_2-22pmgold3_0.jpgpaper_2-22pmsilv3_0.jpg

The jump in gold is particularly painful for yours truly. As you probably recall, I was in trying to buy an April $1750 gold call on Friday. I placed the order as a "limit" at 23 and the price of the option only fell to 24. I never got filled. Tonight, that call is probably worth 60+ so, for the sake of $150, I didn't make $4000. Once again, Turd DumDum.

Anyway, the main object of this post is silver. After the CoT report last Friday, I expected gold to rise this week but thought that silver would remain boxed up, particularly with the increasingly negative 1-month lease rate. This seems to be playing out. While gold rocketed higher today, silver lagged and has since been beaten back. In fact, the EE managed to stop it right on schedule. Check out this updated chart:

paper_2-22pmsilv6.jpg

I going to step out on a limb here and offer a prediction for the next week or so:

I'm with Uncle Ted, Jim Willie and others who think that physical silver in size is in short supply right now. Combine that with the way the "options delivery February expiration" has gone according to Harvey and I think we are set up for a month-end raid. I hope that I'm dead wrong and silver explodes higher for everyone but, please, hear me out.

As you can see on the chart above and as documented here ad nauseam, after quickly rising from $26 to $34 in a matter of weeks, silver has been aggressively capped below $34.40 for nearly four weeks. The question you must ask yourself is: WHY? I think it's all about March expiration and limiting those standing for delivery.

Even though the MFingGlobal disaster has seriously dwindled the amount of Comex participation, the supply squeeze that Uncle Ted mentions is causing the EE some sleepless nights. Silver continuing its January advance through February would only exacerbate the problem. Thus the cap. And how does the cap get put in place? Through a rapidly increasing, EE net short position? Is that the case, too? Yes, it is.

With March (big delivery month) option expiration tomorrow, expect the capping to continue. In all seriousness, why would they quit now? Maybe $34.40 can be overrun in the same fashion that $1765 was overrun in gold today but I doubt it. The EE has come too far and expended too much energy to quit now...not with option expiration tomorrow and first-notice day next Wednesday.

So, here's my prediction. Expect continued volatility tomorrow but maintenance of the hard cap. Then, with expiry behind them, the EE will mount an attack utilizing the exceptionally low silver lease rates. Their goal will be to drive prices lower and coerce March longs to either roll to May or get out completely. The last thing the entire C/C/C needs right now are 5,000-10,000 strong-handed and deep-pocketed longs standing for delivery in March. Once this danger has passed, the pressure will relent and silver will finally be allowed to rise and rally toward The Battle Royale between $35-36.

Lastly, I need a little help. The arrows I took on ZH this afternoon got me thinking. I give you my up-to-date analysis every day, sometimes two or three times per day. It seems that many folks either don't read it every day or simply skim what I write. For whatever reason, they then take my analysis out of context. So, here are my questions:

  • What do you think my PM price objectives are for 2012?
  • Am I currently bearish or bullish on the PMs?
  • Do I make any money off of running/managing this site? If so, how much per month?
  • Does my TA work and is it useful? If not, why not?

Thank you in advance for your feedback. I'm really quite curious to read the responses.

TF

242 Comments

Dr G's picture

1st

1st. Silver bitchez.

But seriously, Nancy Pelosi is a dumbass. Check out her statement on why we have rising gas prices. This is mainstream media/politics/sheeple all rolled into one.

Her statement is infuriating.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nancy-pelosi-issues-statement-soaring-gas-prices

As for Turd's questions:

What do you think my PM price objectives are for 2012?
$65 silver and $2200 gold. In other words, very realistic given past trends and the current state of the world. I think your objective it to provide a realistic roadmap for others to follow.

Am I currently bearish or bullish on the PMs?
Bullish but logical. I'd call it old bull rather than young bull. You've been around the block.

Do I make any money off of running/managing this site? If so, how much per month? Do you personally?
You make maybe $300 if that. Probably in the hole most months. I can make money following your general guidelines.

Does my TA work and is it useful? If not, why not?
Yes, you are great at watching trends and patterns. It's valuable. It helps me focus my own thoughts.

Turd, you are doing a great job. Just remind the people to stack every day that they can. There are times that trading is foolish. Buy low and sell high and yada, yada. But everybody should be buying anytime they can. I don't care if silver is $50. If you can buy 5 oz that day, then you should. If you can't afford to buy every day, then save every day so you can buy.

Jager06's picture

Questions? Answers....

Your PM price objectives? THey are only to have an open and honest market....next question.

"Realistically Bullish" long term due to the fundamentals of the markets.

I doubt you make enough to run the site in the green.

Your TA works and is useful, or else no one would be hanging around here.

Keep up the good work Turd, thanks for keeping it real.

tpbeta's picture

Let's see now...

I dunno what your silver price target is (and I don't think price targets are worth much anyway) - but you're just predicting a very strong year for silver. 

So very bullish long term. Short term obviously not so much (again on silver.)

You make a bit from adverts, but not much.

Your TA often works but it is ALWAYS useful. Your main value is in being willing to call it, and give your reasons. Don't need you to be right all the time.

twippers's picture

amazing

turd, i read a lot of silver analysis sites and yours is by far the best.  the humour alone keeps me coming back.

know one knows (except the ee) what is going to happen day to day but you at least offer us some expert food for thought and make the murky seas clearer to navigate through.  thanks for all you do.

tyberious's picture

What

did I miss? What's going on with the knuckle heads at ZH?

Vypuero's picture

Response

1 - I never read ZH comments, just the articles.  Too many crazies

2 - PM targets for 2012 are solid as they can be on such a timeframe

3 - You are bullish - "cautious optimism"

4 - Not sure but probably little if anything, certainly not worth the time unless you WANT to do this

5 - Yes, I tend to use TA that uses more indicators.  The old fashioned support, resistance, and other analysis is very useful to have

Keep up the good work, and screw the ZH wack jobs!

Dr G's picture

Some dude was crying on ZH

Some dude was crying on ZH that he missed another buying opportunity by listening to Turd. I don't even think he was referencing trading, which makes it all the worse.

As I said above, if you have funds, then buy when you can. Turd may be right that a dip in silver is coming, so I only purchased half the physical I normally do today. If we make it through the week without that dip, then I'm buying the rest on Saturday. Don't wait for dips to stack. DCA.

And above all, don't ever look back at prices and think "if only...". That will simply paralyze you and make you unable to react/purchase/trade in the future.

Greggo's picture

Feedback

2012 Price Objectives
About 20% higher than last year

Bearish or Bullish
Definitely Bullish, but with shorter term volatility

Do you make money off the site?
I doubt you could give up your day job!

Does your TA work?
Generally yes, I've been hurt a few times following your recommendations but there have definitely been more wins than losses. Personally I think it's basically impossible to determine the short-term movement of gold and silver, but over the longer term it's pretty obvious.

Your greatest value is in finding and aggregating some of the other writings, podcasts and videos about precious metals and in educating us about why they will continue to rise under the current financial regime. Yours is one of the few sites I visit every day.

Thanks Turd

Fortinbras's picture

Feedback

  • What do you think my PM price objectives are for 2012? You've repeatedly stated that by end of 2012, PMs will be up, probably fairly big.
  • Am I currently bearish or bullish on the PMs? Macro/Strategic = consistently full bull, Micro/Tactical = situationally nimble, as one should be.
  • Do I make any money off of running/managing this site? If so, how much per month? If anything, not much, but more power to if you do, subscription based or not.
  • Does my TA work and is it useful? If not, why not? Useful... especially when combined with all the other factors, both conforming and non-conforming, that I look at before making my own decisions.
¤'s picture

Thanks

No explanations or suggestions offered here on your questions.  I know your thoughts on the PM's in general and  their much higher then what they are right now. That's all that matters.

The PM's go up because there is no solution and austerity and deflation isn't an option in a asset value/collateral based world of credit we live in.

I have no idea what took place at ZH.  The seeds of troll discontent have been spread about so it doesn't surprise me to hear your coming across crab grass out there.  Try not to dwell on the slings and arrows you come across although I'm sure it's tough to ignore at times. If it bugs you they win or they feel good about it.

Scrape it off your shoes and .... Eff'em!

Ubergrinch's picture

To Da Haterz

All I can say to the Turd haters is do your own research. Make "Do Your Own Research" your mantra and make your buying decisions your own responsibility. I've been "burned" for second-guessing myself because of something Brotherjohnf or Clive Maund said, instead of just buying on my gut instinct, but I don't go and bitch them out for it. So it cost me an extra dollar or whatever. I still got in at $30 something an ounce for physical silver. Next time I'll trust my own instincts and probably fuck myself over, then start listening to chart analysts again. The markets and the cartel are some crafty assholes. You just gotta take it moment-to-moment and do what seems best in your heart. Honestly, I'm still a newb, so I'm still learning who is worth listening to and who is not. I'd say most of this investment discussion throughout the web is for entertainment purposes only, but at the same time, it definitely expands my understanding of the markets. It takes time to get your own feel for it & know when to go with the experts and when to go against them.

Roberto's picture

The comments I saw regarding

The comments I saw regarding you on ZH were by one poster (exact same comment on a couple of threads) and were pretty much ignored. I would think that the more well known you become, the more you might attract that sort of a-hole. I look at zh pretty regularly and there are lots of new people over there as it gets more well known. I wouldn't give it a second thought if I were you.

Sunnyboy's picture

ZH losers

T

From what I could tell they have not read your posts for weeks if not months.

My 10 cents worth is F@%kem they are clearly illiterate

Thanks for the great work, your work is a great "grounder" for me.

I made hay today thanks to your site so something must be working :-)

Woof

TheSilverJournal.com's picture

Feedback

  • What do you think my PM price objectives are for 2012?

Silver hits $60 and gold hits $2,500.

  • Am I currently bearish or bullish on the PMs?

Bullish.

  • Do I make any money off of running/managing this site? If so, how much per month?

Yes. $500.

  • Does my TA work and is it useful? If not, why not?

Yes, because it points out resistance / support, which I believe are the most important psychological aspects of price movements.

http://thesilverjournal.com

D_FIBRILATOR's picture

@Turd I really appreciate the

@Turd

I really appreciate the work you put into the blog. I've learned a lot from reading what you've written over the last 16 months or so. 

On your questions:

1. I can't recall you giving a price objective for 2012.

2. It seems like you've been short term bearish on pms for the last couple of weeks.

3. I doubt you make much money off the site, if at all. I trust that when you request donations they're going towards maintaining the website. If you have to ask for donations, then ad revenue is not paying the bills.

4. The TA is useful. First, I've been slowly learning how to do it myself by reading your blogs, and I've even made some good trades based on it. Second, I've seen you call bottoms on corrections a number of times that were pretty uncanny, if not exact.  

On the other hand, I got caught up in the "fundamentals story" that had silver going to the moon and QE never ending last May. I think if you'd followed through on the TA you might have called a top, like Rogers apparently did. Of course, almost everyone I was hearing from was predicting imminent massive rises in silver prices around that time, and no one expected the concerted effort that it took to smash the price. At any rate, the smack downs last spring caused me to cut way back on who I read/listen to. For instance, I rarely go to KWN and never read Trader Dan anymore. In general, being able to rely on something like TA, especially when I do it myself, seems a much better way of making decisions than getting second hand interpretations from people talking their books.

If I have a criticism it's that you sometimes get ahead of the market with talk of the impending collapse of financial markets/civilization and the explosion of silver prices, although it's completely understandable given the state of things. 

Eric Original's picture

Quiz answers

Fortinbras must have been peeking over my shoulder, because he stole all my answers!  The only part I would maybe change is that I don't think you make squat off the site.  Probably has been costing you money, which gets tiresome after a while....

atomic180's picture

Controled assent

Would higher prices cause the long to stand down from delivery...whats the solution for higher prices...higher prices ... if you can profit of the higher miners to cover your shorts...also would reduce phys buying...just a thought...

pourty's picture

Anyone crying they lost a buy opportunity...

... due to following Turd's advice is, as kindly as I can put it, an idiot.

First, the site costs the reader nothing (at least, so far wink), why someone would take advice from a FREE website and then complain it didn't go their way is beyond me.

Second, it's been made very clear several times on this site that Turd does not possess a crystal ball (at least, not a working one) and he is simply giving away (for free) his own thoughts and analysis. 

Turd is long-term bullish on metals, but he's not stupid by thinking they will never go down in the short-term.

Turd most likely makes very little (if any) income from this site, but I'll echo another poster by saying: If he does, more power to him, the worker is worth his wages.

And since I don't trade, I have no idea how good your technical advice is... but I sure enjoy reading it and looking for opportunities to stack at lower prices when they are available.  (And I admit, I'm tempted to open an account and dip my toes in, but after MF Global, I'm too much of a 'fraidy cat...)

And I actually do read the full posts...

olivethedog's picture

Turd feedback

I must have too much time on my hands cause I read all the comments from everyone.  Here's my suggestion.  Create a Turd mentoring class, tutoring class, whatever you want to call it, that costs the student enough that it forces participation or dropout.  I have the go buy silver thing figured out but I need some lessons on gambling.   Hell,  I paid the stick man at an empty gambling table  downtown Vegas to teach me Craps.  best money I ever spent.

olivethedog's picture

Turd feedback

I must have too much time on my hands cause I read all the comments from everyone.  Here's my suggestion.  Create a Turd mentoring class, tutoring class, whatever you want to call it, that costs the student enough that it forces participation or dropout.  I have the go buy silver thing figured out but I need some lessons on gambling.   Hell,  I paid the stick man at an empty gambling table  downtown Vegas to teach me Craps.  best money I ever spent.

Astro_Phyz's picture

Turds' Questions - My Take

  • What do you think my PM price objectives are for 2012? New highs in gold (over 2k) and topping $40 in silver (and holding it this time)
  • Am I currently bearish or bullish on the PMs? Long term: very, very bullish, like most of us here.  Short term: you realize the roller coaster ride up we are in for will have drops as well due to HFT algo-driven market volatility, EE manipulation, and geopolitical BS we find ourselves in.  So just BTFD!
  • Do I make any money off of running/managing this site? If so, how much per month? I doubt you make enough for the time that you dedicate to this site and to your followers here.  I will gladly pay a small fee for your TA side of the site in the future.  You probably spend more time with your head in the markets and MSM news than most ridiculously wealthy hedge fund and day traders.  And more hours than most of us with your eyes glued to a computer screen scouring the blogosphere for links to real news, real data, and inconvenient truths that should accelerate the sheeple awakening.  You deserve to get paid well for what you do for all of us, but I don't think you do currently.
  • Does my TA work and is it useful? If not, why not? Your TA is as good as anyones, and better than most, and personally I see great value in the charts you put together.  I never knew a sharpie and a ruler could be such powerful tools, but you have the knowledge and experience to lead us forward in these end-times of Keynesian economics.

Everything is going to reset, one way or another, due to our exponential growth in all aspects of human existence.  Thank you Turd for showing us the way to at least come out the other side with some of our wealth preserved in PMs.

fast mover's picture

TURD called this for me!

I was just about ready to throw in the towel trading SLV call options in Jan 2011. Turd's expert analysis called the ORD on his blog at the end of the month. I was convinced by his analysis, and being responsible for my own actions, I stayed in.  That decision helped turn a $15,000 account from Oct 2010 into over $250,000 at the end of April 2011.

Of course May turned into a bit of Romeo and Juliet (everyone dies in the end) and I didn't get to keep all of it, but I did manage to keep a pretty nice stack of fiat and PMs.  And I have an autographed yellow hat too.

Thanks Turd!!!

Fast Mover

goldenlightswitch.blogspot.com

Jdawg's picture

December 31, 2012 - Gold and Slver Prices.

Looking back on 2012, many of you will be astounded to find silver at $65.13 and gold at $2247.22.  These are my conservative estimates. 

Take a look on the wild side, after the November elections, don't be surprise to find silver at 77.04 and gold at $2425.28.

Now that I got your attention, please make a note to tell me $%##$^^^^ or wow that was amazing. 

redwood's picture

Submitted by atarangi on

 

1-knowledgespeakswisdomlistens.jpg  Ivar's - has  stuck to his guns and proven himself  way smarter than his detractors.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Yes Atarangi, and those that were most rude to him are now gone.  So often the medium is the message.  Welcome back Ivars.  There are many here happy to see you.  Hope all is well with you and your family.

EBR Mod 0's picture

feedback

Turd;

i am too new at this PM to say much other than absorb what I can. FWIW, a good friend who got me into silver now has your site and commented today that he really appreciated that link and reads it as soon as you post. He scans your charts, so he is very appeciative on your efforts. So, I am hanging here. Thanks for trying to beat the EE. 

kazemsd's picture

Keep the hard work

  • What do you think my PM price objectives are for 2012?

That is hard to tell, but looking at the liquidity flush to the market it should be higher than last year. So I am going with Silver 55$/oz and Gold 2200$/oz

  • Am I currently bearish or bullish on the PMs?

I think that we all agree that fundamentals have not changed. Fed prints money and Euro bails out Greece out of thin air. And they are all bullish for PM.

  • Do I make any money off of running/managing this site? If so, how much per month?

I really do not know. This is too much work so it should be paid in a way. It might be creating a medium for people to exchange ideas so all of us can benefit from it (including you). I am new so I do not know much of the stuff, but there might be others that their comments help you.

  • Does my TA work and is it useful? If not, why not?

Honestly, I bought two times thinking that I am using your advice, but it did not work for me. However, I do not care because I believe in Principal. I bought in the peaks in early Jan., but those picks are bottoms now!

Thanks and keep the hard work yes

ACM's picture

Survey

   I don't really recall any hard and fast objectives other than long term up.   I think most bulls are thinking $50-60 silver, $1,900 to low $2,000's gold.  I would say I believe you are a long term bull who is sometimes a short term bear in the context of an overall bull market.  I guess you are happy to break even but I would be very happy for you to make money.   Your analysis is overall as good as any I see elsewhere or better.  But, as you say, you're just a regular guy with a MacBook.  I appreciate all you have done and if somebody doesn't like it, there is always the suggestion concerning them performing an impossible act.

                                                                          Thanks TF!  God Bless you and yours.  ACM

Lumpy's picture

Quiz Answers

1. Price objectives for 2012.

Not sure what they are if you posted them.  You probably did, and I probably read them.  I usually look at the charts myself and decide what my magic number is.  That way I can only blame myself.

2. Are you currently bearish or bullish?  I'd say cautiously bullish short-term.  Very Bullish long-term.

3. Do you make money and how much running Turdville.

I would guess there's some money trickling in.  I'm sure you see the potential to make more.  If you do.....Hey, you got a family to feed too.

4.  Does your TA work?  I guess is works as well as it can considering you're trying to guess which way the poker game is going.  Of course the cards are marked.  That's why I don't put much trust in any TA regarding the Silver Charts or the POSX charts.  Gold is a little harder to manage I think.  A lot to the EE own tons.

Finally I would just like to say Thank You!  I love reading your stuff.  I love reading what others here have to say.  I appreciate being able to post a question here, and have some kind folks here give me their input.    There are a lot of people here who honestly try to help out the rest of us.  Those people are following your lead Turd.  So keep up the good work!

Be Prepared's picture

Be Prep's Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Response

  • What do you think my PM price objectives are for 2012?
    Turd, my friend, your objectives are clear.... which is inform us all about a very complex and ever-changing market environment.  You are very bullish about PMs and I wouldn't be stretching it by saying that most of us here are as well.  The thing that's important is you aren't afraid to change your thoughts or objectives based upon new information.  This market is NOT static and, correspondingly, you remain flexible and TA reflects that evolving picture.  Take today - you clearly stated Silver is capped at $34.40 and there will be continued pressure to keep Silver down due to expiry.
  • Am I currently bearish or bullish on the PMs?
    You are Sun Tzu, Sensei......

    "It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin.  Hence it is a subject of inquiry  which can on no account be neglected. "

    You are smartly always looking at the road ahead and looking to be in front, behind or beside the trend... as the road and TPTB dictate... :-)

  • Do I make any money off of running/managing this site? If so, how much per month?
    I guess it depends on your objectives.  The cost of building the site, the server, your time and misc. all could or could not be factored into the equation.  I've been with you since the blogspot site and know that your intentions and desires are true, so where you take it and how you take is up to you.  Each step can add or subtract to what has grown here organically.
  • Does my TA work and is it useful? If not, why not?
    Just like anyone of us.... some days are better than others.  It's always important to be straight, right?  Every day, though, I am thankful and believe in your efforts to make a difference and share your perspective on this crappy bomb slowly enveloping us.  I am glad you are not just a straight TA guy.... I most likely wouldn't be here if you were.  You are facing the same struggles and you present us with things to ponder.  I also hope that we help you as well.

I hope you know, my friend, you have nothing to prove to anyone. Your values and integrity show to the people who have taken the time to really read what you have to say.... I, for one, am glad you took the leap of faith to put yourself out there and to create this site. If what we believe is coming... comes to pass... this site, Turd, most likely won't be around in a couple of years. I think our priorities and challenges will be something entirely harsher than what we see today. Of course, my predictions suck... so maybe Turdville won't ever fall to the axe of FEMA, Homeland InSecurity, Fusion Centers, Drones.  Heck, in two years, you may need to be a party member, comrade, to even be on the internet.

retireyoung's picture

My response to Turd's questions

First of all, I do not read ZH because this site alone gives me more than enough information as to just how the world as we know it will soon come to an end.  I do not need more input on that subject.

Also, I grow weary enough on this site reading about how the woes of the world can be traced either to the U,S. or Israel.  I don't need to read more about that and have my blood pressure rise.  I suspect that those who constantly harp about the warmongering U.S. are products of our public school system and enough said about that.

I do not believe that Turd has given any long term predictions about precious metals.  I do not care if he makes money on this site or not.  That is his business.

Technical analysis for precious metals is not helpful, in my view, because PM's can rise or fall greatly on emotions which cannot be charted.  I do know that PM's are a finite commodity and the printing of money apparently is not finite so that is why I am long term bullish on precious metals.

I do differ greatly and fundamentally on an apparently given assumption here that there is an ongoing "war' between entities variously referred to as the EE/Cartel/banker gangsters/a lady sometimes politely referred to as Blythe/JPMorgue  and on the other side holders of precious metals.

Nuts to that.  There are longs and shorts and the market is not greatly (or at all) influenced by that over used word of manipulation.  There is no "war" going on.  I think that we have investors in precious metals who believe that their value is not going up as fast as they think it should and therefore there must be some evil entities out there who are somehow keeping the price down.

The precious metals market is really tiny.  Someone like Sprott or many others could easily expose the shorts if that was all that was keeping the market down.  And they are not doing so.  There is a big difference between the paper price of gold and silver and the physical price but that can easily be explained.  People just pay too darn much on EBAY or APMEX or the local coin ship for physical.   

So, I believe that market forces (i.e. printing of paper money) will force up the price of gold and silver.  There is no war going on, in my view, keeping the prices artifically down.

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