Looking To BTFD In Silver and Gold
Wow, this is crazy, isn't it? There is so much crapola going on in the world that, seriously, I don't know where to start. So, I guess I'll start where I'm most comfortable...with the ruler and the sharpie...and wait till you see what I've found!
As I've mentioned quite a few times as of late, this 20%+ equity rally over the last three months makes me nauseous. While I feel that the perfect 45-degree rally is a clear sign of Fed manipulation, others argue that it is the rational result of The Great Global Liquidity Flush of 2012. Maybe they're right? Maybe we're all right? Who knows? All I know is that the charts don't lie and they are what they are.
To that end, below is the most important chart of the day...perhaps of all 2012 to date. Note that since the panic beatdown and collapse of December, gold has been in a similar pattern to stocks. Take a look:

From this chart, I think we can deduce several things:
- Since it's not just gold and equities that have this 2012 pattern, there really is a Great Liquidity Flush happening and it will likely continue throughout the year as the central banks desperately try to maintain the illusion of recovery and hope.
- The Cartel is still active in trying to manage gold's ascent. Note that this range rises a perfect $100/month.
- If we expect The Great Liquidity Flush to continue then this chart pattern should continue, as well.
- The current floor of the channel is at $1720. This means that by late April, the floor of the channel will be at the old all-time highs for gold, near $1920, and the top side of the channel reaches there by late March.
- Buy gold. Buy it on the dip or buy it on the rally. In the end it doesn't really matter. Just buy it.
Now, the next question is: Can we get a dip to buy? Maybe. In fact, I kind of like our chances that we'll get that dip, sometime between now and Thursday afternoon.
First of all, the POSX is rallying. In fact, at 79.30, it's actually above the level at which it was trading pre-Greece on Monday. Interestingly, the metals are holding in there today even while The Pig strengthens. I have a hunch, however, that a few WOPRS may eventually trip into "sell" and take the PMs down a few dollars.

So, where might that dip take us? In gold, I will be very excited if we can get a dip to 1740-45. You can clearly see that area on these two charts:


In silver, the BTFD area is also clearly defined. Take a look at these two chart first:


And now check out this hourly chart. If a dip develops to 33.70-33.80, it sure looks like a solid buying opportunity. The only thing complicating matters somewhat is the pending expiration of the March options at the close tomorrow. Keep that little item in mind if you are attempting to trade today and recall how SLV call holders were treated when their options expired back on Friday.

Lastly, I'm trying really hard to bring myself up-to-speed on this Greek "bailout" deal. If you want to take a crack at it, too, try reading this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/summarizing-open-questions-surrounding-second-greek-bailout
and this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/psi-scenarios-and-greek-bond-trading-thoughts
and then consider this:
What I can't figure out is why a powerful hedge fund would allow themselves to get screwed in this deal. Why wouldn't a loose consortium of hedge funds band together and deny the deal? Because the ECB and the Fed are so afraid of a CDS trigger, couldn't these funds force them to sweeten the deal in a sort of 80s-esque "greenmail" attempt? They could even short JPM and GS, profit from putting the squeeze on and then close those positions right before they accept the sweetened deal!
Anyway, it seems to me that there is a palpable sense of desperation to avoid CDS triggering through a Greek default. In the next few weeks and days, there will be some wild volatility as markets react to "deal on" and "deal off" rumors but, in the end, a deal will be struck that will be much more costly than that which was announced yesterday. Costly = more euro and more dollars. Costly = continuation of the Great Liquidity Flush of 2012. Costly = gold and silver continue to rally and perhaps even accelerate to the upside.
Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe default is inevitable next month. Gonzalo seems to think so:
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2012/02/fearless-prediction-on-march-20-greece.html
However, this event is PM-positive, too, as breaking up the euro will also drive the PMs significantly higher. Maybe not so much in the near term but definitely in the longer term.
So, there you go. That's all for now. Crude is still over $106 and, the more time it spends at $106+, the more certain you can be that it is headed to at least $115. Got UCO?
More later. TF


Comments
First!!!!! Thanks TF.
First!!!!! Thanks TF.
Not taking your advice Turd:)
Sorry, I just went a little long today, bought some 1950-2000 gold spreads - Feb 2013. $1200 with potential for a 4 bagger. i hate buying short term. I like to go long, that's my mantra..so i don't get fcuked like last April. Took it so far up the bottom that it came out of my mouth.
Thurd
Thurd is good!
If buying that far out...
...I wouldn't wait, either!
yeah..
and got some 38-39 and 39-40 silver spreads for Dec 2013 around the same price two weeks ago. that' longer the long john silver:)
Stack stack stack
Man they can draw this shit out,
but it is opportunity!
Fitch to declare Default?
Fitch have relegated Greek Debt from CCC to C according to the Telegraph, and are saying this deal going through will count as a default as far as they are concerned - which is a D rating....this just came through their live blog so a bit vague for now...
Re the stocks rally, I do agree with the liquidity juicing story, but it is interesting to hear the astrology guy Ray Merriman who Turdite "Timer" I think was his name turned us onto on blogspot...Ray thinks this rally will break down before March 7th, so interesting to observe while we sit in this flat calm for PM's, yawn, waiting for the wind to get up in them sails shipmaties x
$38 silver will never be in
$38 silver will never be in the money by Dec 13 :)
link
You should definitely take time to listen to this today:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/2/22_MEP_Nigel_Farage.html
For The Good Of The Ponzi
The IIF is rollin' on hopium and denial that private investors are going to jump on the "voluntary taking of losses train" for the good of the world monetary fiat ponzi. Of course, the "good" thing would be to end this fiat ponzi ASAP so the governments of the world stop stealing the resources of the world through the printing press.
TheSilverJournal.com
@dr. G
ya know, the thought actually crossed my mind. But im such a risk taker
. If we dont' get 38 silver by then im going to buy long-term bonds
Greece
With 720% 1 year Greek bonds, the outlook is looking pretty grim. If Greece does end up restructuring (defaulting) and goes back to the Drachma, will other countries such as Italy, Portugal, Spain, etc. do the same and expect the same? Will this break up the Euro entirely? Wouldn't this cause a flight of "safety" back to the dollar, then driving the POSX up higher in the near term, this suppressing PM prices in the short term? I do believe this will be PM positive in the long run, but I am very cautious in the short term.
I think the ECB will ask the FED to step up and help bail out the institutions who made the bad bets on Greek bonds, and Greece will most likely go back to the Drachma. There is NO WAY that the banks will take the hit... It's always been the people who bailed them out. Why would that change now? I'd be more concerned of the other European countries who will be put in the same position Greece is 2 years from now expecting some forgiveness and not getting it.
-_D
Here is the link regarding
Here is the link regarding the Fitch/Greece downgrade story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9097237/Debt-crisis-live.html
PS. Nigel Farage for US President. Seriously.
Nutshell...
"Buy gold. Buy it on the dip or buy it on the rally. In the end it doesn't really matter. Just buy it".
Best advice you've ever given. In the end it is all that will matter anyway. Highs, lows, WGAF?
:o)
@ securi_D
That is my take away from the Swiss debacle late last summer. At the time I couldn't envision anything being more PM positive than annihilation of the last true flight-to-saftey currency. Yet PM's were crushed - presumably by the Swiss themselves on command of their EE overlords. The cabal said, "Sure, you can devalue, but only if you flood the market with your gold at the same time, else we will make it very bad for you." I still can't really get my head around it.
Ok that all was a little off track, but I guess I had to vent. Yes, though, I think a default would cause a melt up on the POSX. Don't get me wrong, though. I am buying PM's.
More from Nigel
More from Nigel - damn he is ALWAYS spot-on
This is slightly dated - from last year -
but it is pertinent in that he gives a sufficient background to
the EU/ Greek affair, and you must have some basic understanding in the entire EU/UK affair
in order to understand the EU/Greek affair. OK?
Also he includes some basic background in EU Bonds -
which are central to the whole Paper Ponzi scheme~!
Root Cause Analysis will always get you back to the Bond Market,
and the bottom line is that it is as Fiat/manipulated as the PIG market and
when that is finally exposed - TSHTF.
Dr J and GSR stuff
Dr J and SGR stuff
Submitted by Hondo on February 22, 2012 - 12:01pm.
Hat Tip! 0
I agree about a forum on this GSR. I have been aware about it since I opened the "silver door" to this rabbit hole I now dwell in wearing my tin foil hat. I just never had the confinence and depth to understand the in and outs. Hat tips to the poster who has been hitting the GSR stuff a lot lately, so I don't recall your handle but thanks and keep it coming! I don't know about y'all but, I don't care to gamble on what I don't understand with my stash.
So, from what I have learned of late, I did the math on what could have been since buying my first chunck in nov 09. The GSR at the time was ballpark 62.
60 oz. Ag @ 60: 1 = 1 oz Au . The lowest I have seen since was ballpark 30:1 right before the May massacre.
60 oz. Ag @ 30:1=2 oz Au. Double the Au I could have purchased with my initial cash purchase. Missed that boat, oh the humanity!
So now GSR 51:1
2 oz Au( I didn't trade for!) would get 102 oz Ag if I chose this ratio. I would maybe wait till 55, but still that would make me 40 free oz Ag per 60 oz Ag done on original 30:1 trade, per x amount of 60 oz I traded!
That's math I like.
Question I have is the tax man. You don't have to report your metals to IRS unless you sell per my accountant. So if you have to sell to get the cash to do the swap that destroys the profit ratio. I haven't done that exact math but spitball math at 35 percent is lil over a third hit on your forty ounces and increasing your footprint if you get my drift.
Any ideas on another way? Anyon
The only option I have come up with is to find LCS to swap with. Convince them they are still getting equal value and then happily pay them their premium. Then walk away hoping they don't change their mind when it's time for the next swap.
I am getting giddy on the possibilities!
Hondo
edit: Ha ha had to copy this from last thread. Last poster sucka!
EditReply Alert Moderator
Will patience be rewarded?
Sure, buying gold or silver right here likely will look good a year out.
But in view of all the past options manipulations beatdowns, I can't pull the trigger to add now until I see what the bad guys have in store for the next day and change. Been burned one too many times by their antics.
The way I look at it, buying gold or silver Friday will look good a year out, also. But both could be on sale at that time (Friday).
This one is a doozy...
Fulford and Wilcock are looking more and more credible with every passing day...
Lord James of Blackheath: Mystery 15 Trillion Dollars Transferred to HSBC For Royal Bank of Scotland Connected to JP Morgan and Federal Reserve
"There are three possible conclusions which may come from it. First, there may have been a massive piece of money-laundering committed by a major Government who should know better. Effectively, it undermined the integrity of a British bank, the Royal Bank of Scotland, in doing so. The second possibility is that a major American department has an agency which has gone rogue on it because it has been wound up and has created a structure out of which it is seeking to get at least €50 billion as a pay-off. The third possibility is that this is an extraordinarily elaborate fraud, which has not been carried out, but which has been prepared to provide a threat to one Government or more if they do not make a pay-off. These three possibilities need an urgent review.
In April and May 2009, the situation started with the alleged transfer of $5 trillion to HSBC in the United Kingdom. Seven days later, another $5 trillion came to HSBC and three weeks later another $5 trillion. A total of $15 trillion is alleged to have been passed into the hands of HSBC for onward transit to the Royal Bank of Scotland. We need to look to where this came from and the history of this money. I have been trying to sort out the sequence by which this money has been created and where it has come from for a long time."
http://theintelhub.com/2012/02/19/lord-james-of-blackheath-mystery-15-tr...
If you haven't read David Wilcock's 'Financial Tyranny' report, I suggest you grab a comfy seat and beverage of choice:
http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/1023-financial-tyranny
Dr G
Nigel Farage for Prez? Yes! I hear he has a Hawaiian birth certificate too!
Warren Buffet candidate for Socialist Sainthood !
He lives in a modest frame house in Omaha and eats a bowl of oatmeal every morning ! Monedas 2012 I hope he chokes on an oatmeal flake !
Always looking
Thanks Turd for the charts! I don't comment much, but I check the site daily to get a sense of what's going on.
Personally, I find it difficult to convince myself to purchase large amounts of silver when the price is above it's 50-day moving average ($31.28 according to StockCharts.com). Maybe it's just the cheapskate in me.
Nevertheless, I'm heading to the local coin shop today. I found a pair of 1oz silver kookaburras last week for $40 and a pair of 1oz silver pandas for $34. Maybe 3rd time's the charm? :)
FWIW
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2012/02/how-remove-your-google-search-history-googles-new-privacy-policy-takes-effect
How to Remove Your Google Search History Before Google's New Privacy Policy Takes Effect
On March 1st, Google will implement its new, unified privacy policy, which will affect data Google has collected on you prior to March 1st as well as data it collects on you in the future. Until now, your Google Web History (your Google searches and sites visited) was cordoned off from Google's other products. This protection was especially important because search data can reveal particularly sensitive information about you, including facts about your location, interests, age, sexual orientation, religion, health concerns, and more. If you want to keep Google from combining your Web History with the data they have gathered about you in their other products, such as YouTube or Google Plus, you may want to remove all items from your Web History and stop your Web History from being recorded in the future.
Here's how you can do that:
1. Sign into your Google account.
2. Go to https://google.com/history
3. Click "remove all Web History."
4. Click "ok."
Note that removing your Web History also pauses it. Web History will remain off until you enable it again.
If you have several Google accounts, you will need to do this for each of them.
I find it very hard to
I find it very hard to believe that, once the average Greek citizen gets a load of these details, there won't be complete anarchy and political breakdown.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/scandal-greece-receive-negative-cash-second-bailout-it-funds-insolvent-european-banks
Paid Subscription
Hello Turd,
An avid follower from India..not a regular blogger but make it a pt to visit ur site everyday..consider myself too unqualified to comment on your posts....as far as paid subscription goes kindly make the online payment easy by accepting debit cards as well...i hate using credit cards..why to pay MORGUE interest..rt?
Done!
Thanks for the heads up!
Thanks
I will pass that along to The Tech Team.
Silver looking weak into the close
and tomorrow is March option expiry. Will we get a beatdown on the Globex this afternoon? Chances are high.
Couldn't we get the high
Couldn't we get the high school kid who photoshopped BO's birth certificate to do one proving that Nigel Farage was born in the United States?
Thanx Turd
thanks a lot turd....ur the man...
DOW Gazillion
Gazillion is a fake number, and so is this rally. I am so sick about hearing Dow 13,000. Who cares? It's all relative...
"According to Zero Hedge, even though the Dow is back at May 2008 levels, the Dow priced in gold is down a staggering 50 percent. While the Dow was busy getting back to a nominal break-even point from May 2008 to February 2012, gold prices surged from $900 to $1,750 per ounce. During the same period, silver prices increased from $17 to $34 per ounce."
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/investing/do-central-banks-care-more-about-the-dow-or-gold.html/
GSR Trade
@ Hondo
I think one can get around the tax implications on trades using a Gold Money or Bullion Vault type of account. The articles to which you refer discussed this matter.
I think donnojackshit vamoose and byzantium were the people who were kind enough to share their knowledge on the subject. Reading their posts should provide the answer.
Thanks Turd. : ) I'll buy
Thanks Turd. : )
I'll buy more gold on Thursday (I got my money wd from my stock broker that day)
*edit
I forgot, It's tomorrow. ha ha my bad xD
Just a pinch from EE?
Thank you Turd for your post! So if I understand your post and subsequent comments right we anticipate not a beatdown but just a pinch from EE this afternoon. 1%-ish to 33.70-33.80? Certainly nothing to take us out of month-long 32.80-34.40 range? Hell, I can surely live with that without stacking on high blood pressure pills! Thanks again! Staying Sturdy in Silver.
@ Turd--re:FWIW
All credit should go to my son, who is "in the computer business", and sometimes thinks I'm "paranoid" when I tell him about the "end of the great Keynesian Experiment" and the reasons for my "stacking". The fact that he sent me this link gives me hope that he's starting to "trust his old man" in matters of "government intrusion" and the importance of "prepping".
Why the $12 spike in gold?
Anybody?
I just bought back in
hows that for power?
Whoa, what just happened?
Gotta love these manipulated markets, where something spikes for absolutely no observable reason at all. Just la-di-da, I'm going to spike today.
If you're long the PMs, you're also long chaos and anarchy. I suppose you could be reluctantly long chaos and anarchy or you can do what the Sex Pistols did...
Beatdown?
Come again?
Gold: 1770
Silver: 34.36
as i type... :)
SRSROCCO RANT
MY THOUGHTS ON SEVERAL SUBJECTS
I got the inspiration to write this post by watching the SENIOR vs JUNIOR AMERICAN CHOPPER episode "Winners and Losers". In this episode Donald Trump asks Senior to do a bike. In the beginning of the meeting, Trump asks Senior if he has talked to Junior. Senior responds "No". Trump goes on to tell Senior, "Don't leave him ten cents... don't leave him anything."
I can't begin to explain the loathing I have for Trump... even before this American Chopper show. Trump to me is the epitome of what is wrong with the United States. Trump is a complete waste of time, capital and information. At some point in time, he will be washed up due to his lousy investments in OVERBLOWN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE.
THE EROI - ENERGY RETURNED ON INVESTED between the GOLD RUSH SHOW vs BERING SEA GOLD
I don't know how many of you all have watched these two gold mining reality shows on the Discovery channel. So far this year, the Hoffmans in the Gold Rush Show have mined 82 ounces of gold... and basically the mining season is over. From my memory, Dakota Fred got about 65 ounces so far. From what I could get from the show, the Hoffmans consumed over $1,000 worth of diesel a day, while Dakota Fred probably uses close to that amount.
There are four different water dredges on Bering Sea Gold show. The largest is the Christy Rose which cost $500,000 to build in 2009. The other smaller dredges cost between $20-$40,000 to build. So far this past season, the Christy Rose has found 282 oz of gold.
If we consider that the Hoffmans spent about $100,000 on equipment it is only 1/5 th of what was spent on building the Christy Rose. But if we consider the amount of fuel that is consumed by the Hoffmans mining gold in Alaska compared to the fuel consumed by the Christy Rose, it is a drop in the bucket. The Hoffmans have 4 earth moving machines running all day plus their big sluice box which is run by a diesel powered generator.
The Christy Rose uses a little diesel to get the barge out to sea, but they only have to power the water pump, backhoe and sluice box. I would imagine the diesel consumption for the Christy Rose daily is 1/3 of the Hoffmans.
Here is the difference. In a day of mining the Hoffmans get about 5 oz of gold. The Christy Rose has found over 75-90 oz a day on three different days. The Christy Rose dredge consumes 1/3 the amount of diesel but can produce at least 50 oz of gold a day, whereas the Hoffmans can only produce 5 oz of gold while they consume 2-3 times the amount of diesel.
Here we can see the EROI is much better for dredging in the Bering Sea than it is mining gold ore from the ground in Alaska.
THE SUBJECT OF POLITICS & FOREIGN POLICY
I read and watch a great deal of debate on the U.S Govt and foreign policy. I see a lot of people getting very passionate about their feelings in these issues. my articles are more on the physical side of the situation when it comes to the economy, precious metals and energy. I rarely write about the US Govt or what is taking place in countries throughout the world.
The reason why I stay away from this sort of debate is due to the fact that IT IS A COMPLETE WASTE OF TIME TO GO AGAINST THE LEVERAGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN CHARGE. If we look at the past, political parties whether they be socialist, communist, fascist or etc.. run for quite a long time before they disintegrate. No amount of protest or revolt works. In the end, it is the entropy of the system that takes down the political party.
The Peaking of Oil and the coming energy shortages will destroy the present political systems. The threat of these Drone planes flying all over the United States is nice on paper, but the future logistics will prove this system a HUGE FAILURE. There is no need to protest and try to keep this sort of SPY PROGRAM from becoming reality.
UPDATE ON THE FIVE STAGES OF COLLAPSE
In my THE COMING PARADIGM SHIFT IN SILVER, I wrote how the price of silver would take off when the U.S. hits STAGE 2 or the Commercial collapse. Dmirty Orlov recently did an interview on Max Keiser where he updated his theory of collapse. Orlov now believes that because of the continued manipulation of the markets by the US Govt and Fed that we will have all three stages collapse at the same time. Basically, the whole system falls apart at once and there is no time to protect ones wealth if you have not done so already.
STAGE 1 the Financial Collapse took place in 2008, but the banking system is still functioning due to the US Govt manipulation. When the system finally goes, it will take down the Banking System, the Supply Chain system (Commerical Collapse - Stage 2) and the Political System (Stage 3). Things will really get out of hand.
When we have this huge collapse of 3 stages at once, we will not have to worry about the Federal Govt and its Homeland Security and etc, but rather we will have to protect ourselves from our more unprepared neighbors.
THE COUNTRY LIFE WILL SURVIVE, WHEREAS THE LARGE CITIES WILL BE THE WORST PLACE TO LIVE
My wife and I left the big city over five years ago. We have goats, chickens, garden, orchard and fresh water creek on our property. We can live without the supply chain or the electric grid. We have a neat solar cooker that uses the sun to cook meats, grains, breads and vegetables by the power of the sun. The unit gets up to 350 degrees and can cook a chicken in 2 hours. The neat thing about it... the chicken will not get burned if you leave it in the sunoven for most of the day.
Today, my biggest concern is not the breakdown of the system, but the collapse of the electric Grid and the failure of Nuclear Power Plants as a result. Living in the country can protect oneself from the negative forces in the big city... but not from RADIATION spewing from failed nuclear power plants.
This is why my wife and I are now planning to leave the mainland. I believe the probability of the FAILURE of the NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS is 100% at some point in time. How many go down and in what areas is up to chance. If just 10-20% of the Nuke Plants go down, it makes a great percentage of the country uninhabitable.
Well....that's enough for now.
HAPPY TRADING
Silver charts
Today 11am to 1:15pm Silver chart is absolutely identical to yesterday including over 1% FUBM in the last 15 min...
up on some serious volume too
something just came out
Au & AG spiking?
Pull up a chair, set your software for 1 minute bars and enjoy the action! It is only .30 on AG, but that is a refreshing change from watching the paint peel. AU is exciting!
somebody
must have just said something, gold just jumped to 1771,
that's cool!
What's up
what's up??silver & gold just shot up...any breaking news?
$34 held
...and it starting to spike now.
1772
Gold just broke $1772. Turd, if it holds to the close in 8 minutes would you consider this sufficient to call it a break of the $1760 barrier that good things are supposed to happen above?
Must be the 5-Year Note Auction
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/treasury-prices-35-billion-forgettable-5-y...
TF IS THE CNBC OF GOLD ANALIST
BTFD? LOL...whatever turd says just do the opposite
WHAT ANGEL?
I'd suggest that Santa's 1764 angel non-event is an ominous sign that "there ain't no breakman on this train." Not even a hi, how are ya? Like a hot knife. 1849 soon?
The $hui is creeping up on 555...I know all the arguments agains miners and frankly, I agree with them. But if it keeps trading so well, it will be hard to ignore. The Slw/Slv is screaming "buy me.'
Per always, wtfdik?