Even More Charts

Tuesday, February 21, 2012 at 4:43 pm

No sense dillydallying. Let's get right to it.

Let's start off-topic a bit; I just have to give you an updated ES chart. Again, the ES is the mini S&P 500 futures contract. It is the functional equivalent of stock trading for maniacal futures traders, such as myself. What is so comical (and sickening) about this chart is the consistency of it. Not only does the chart continue rising at a perfect 45-degree angle, there are so very few DOWN days. In fact, there's a stretch of days in early January where the ES rose 14 out if 15 days! This is a nearly impossible occurrence in a non-manipulated market. Then, after 4 consecutive down days in late January, the ES has risen 10 out of 14 trading days this month.

But I'll admit...maybe I'm just crazy. Maybe the stock market is completely free and fair and prices are rising because of such fundamental things as actual earnings and projected earnings. If that's the case, we must be in a low-inflation, happy-consumer, increasing-margin Wonderland! Uhhhhhhh, maybe not. See below:

The obvious question regarding the metals is now: What happens next? Today's open interest numbers (basis Friday) look OK and the 1-month silver lease rate I'm so worried about has backed off to -0.35%. Let's see what happens in the next 24-48 hours. Will gold fail again at 1760-65? Will silver fail again at 34.40?

Since there was an absence of coordinated, Cartel raids today, we have to expect a beatdown overnight, likely beginning at the appointed hour of 3:00 am EST when London opens. Whether or not we get a solid FULBMA on the Comex tomorrow will go a long way toward determining whether or not this present attempt to overtake 1750 and 34 will be successful. And I hope we are successful. Frankly, I'm sick and tired of fighting this preliminary battle. (I suppose that that is exactly how the Cartels want me to feel.) 1750 and 34 are just the warmups. They are the PM equivalents of August, NFL exhibition football. The real battles begin when gold reaches 1800 and silver reaches 35.50. These are The Battles Royale. Beyond those levels lay new alltime highs in gold and $40+ silver, therefore, they will be vigorously defended.

That's it. That's all I've got. I hope that all of you were richly rewarded by the action in the metals today and that my current obsession with the CoT and lease rates didn't keep you from participating. Personally, I had an order in on Friday to buy an April $1750 gold call at 23. It only fell to 24 and I never got filled. Rats. I haven't had the time nor inclination to check the price today to see how much fiat I didn't make. Oh well, whaddayagonnado? Have a great overnight and let's see where everything goes tomorrow.

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Suck it

Submitted by iceman321_2k2 on February 21, 2012 - 4:45pm.

Not on this post, kids.

Number 2!

Submitted by Louie on February 21, 2012 - 4:46pm.

If I can't be first, I will have to settle for #2!

Waiting, waiting, waiting.

Will we see those December sale prices again? Waiting, waiting.

1760 gold Already

Submitted by GoldMania3000 on February 21, 2012 - 4:49pm.

3000 Gold is when the mania comes. this is just the warm up

1760!!

Submitted by enkidu on February 21, 2012 - 4:51pm.

We just about to hit it....

WOOOOOH Nelly

Submitted by Bsong on February 21, 2012 - 4:53pm.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iifs-dallara-warns-holdout-greek-bondholde...

RE: WOOOOOH Nelly

Submitted by enkidu on February 21, 2012 - 4:54pm.

Can't wait to watch newsnight now :)

The Greek Gods aren't Happy!

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 21, 2012 - 5:06pm.

No one is visiting Mt. Olympus.... and bringing them offerings of gold & silver.

I'm sorry I meant the New Gods of Greece!

link

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on February 21, 2012 - 5:12pm.

MODERATOR

http://www.debka.com/article/21758/

Still on the sidelines, waiting for $31 silver...

Submitted by pourty on February 21, 2012 - 5:14pm.

I admit to getting caught up in the mania last year, and failed to listen to the 400lb gorilla of technical analysis (Louise Yamada) who said gold would correct back down into the $1500's... so after dropping down to $1725 from it's high of $1920, I bought with both hands...

While it was far from a fatal mistake, I bought a bunch of silver at the same time, and I'm still recovering from that mess.

So my new year's resolution is: "patience, young padawan". I can't see buying anymore gold with the GSR above 50, and I can't stomach buying Silver above $31 anymore, just to watch all the numbers turn red for weeks (or months) shortly thereafter.

2 things are in my favor, though:

1. I stack, I don't trade. Even that $44 per ounce bar I bought in August will gleam with value when the system implodes. In the long run, those "expensive" purchases will look rather cheap, I just have to keep emotions in check in the meantime.

2. Since my experience last year, my emotions are firmly in the stable space. I KNOW there will be large corrections, and I'm holding back fiat until they arrive. I stacked a bit of silver during the lows of December and January. That has helped make up for a lot of the emotional baggage left over from September.

I have resolved to stack only on major corrections in the future (unless we get a really compelling spike down, like silver below $31). Until then, I'll risk what little fiat I accumulate (risk as in, let sit in the bank) in the hopes of lower prices.

My wife looks at me funny every time I look at a silver chart and mention how I hope the price will soon drop dramatically... I don't think she gets it yet...

Signs?

Submitted by Marblesonac on February 21, 2012 - 5:14pm.

This past Friday I saw a Bald Eagle for the first time at my BOL. I take that as a pretty great omen......

Re: Link

Submitted by enkidu on February 21, 2012 - 5:16pm.

That's not the kind of news I like reading Turd...

Not a very convincing rally...

Submitted by lairdwd on February 21, 2012 - 5:20pm.

Once again, gold lagged platinum and palladium on a big RISK ON day. Volume did not seem convincing to me. What we had here was the simple fact there was little downside pressure in the way of the cartel. I get the feeling that the late push today was to paint the tape at 1760, so that chartists have something to oogle over.

Considering the artifical beatdown from Friday GLD/SLV opEx, the underperformance relative to the CCI and the DXY, the price is somewhere near where it "should" be. Risk/Reward isn't in as much of a favorable setup as it was entering today's action.

I am neutral and will wait and see what tomorrow brings. I closed out all my long trading positions, selling the final lot at the bell today. They can only goose the DXY so much with all the money printing going on in the EU, but they may have one more push to 1.33. Something's got to give, but we just don't seem to be there yet with Gold.

Great Interview with Ranting Andy (Feb. 20th)

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 21, 2012 - 5:21pm.

Interview with Andy Hoffman

Another point of view on the crazy week ahead....

and this is interesting

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on February 21, 2012 - 5:23pm.

MODERATOR

IRAN THREATENS TO ATTACK ISRAEL WITH MISSILES AND THE U.S. WITH SUICIDE BOMBERS, BUT WHITE HOUSE PRESSURING ISRAEL TO DO

NOTHING

President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are scheduled to meet at the White House for talks on March 5. Netanyahu is also expected to address the annual AIPAC policy conference and hold other meetings with senior Congressional officials. The big question for Obama appears to be: When is Israel planning to hit Iran, and is there any way the White House can stop Netanyahu from launching preemptive air strikes? That is precisely the wrong question, however. The American President should be asking: How can the U.S. help Israel stop Iran without a full scale war, and if such a war is needed, how can we work together to win quickly and decisively and make the world safer?

Now comes a new challenge: senior Iranian officials are threatening to launch preemptive missile strikes against Israel anda wave of suicide bombing attacks the U.S. Yet the Obama administration continues to act as though Israel is the real problem, not Iran. “A senior Iranian military commander signaled the Islamic Republic might launch a pre-emptive strike against its ‘enemies’ if the nation’s leaders felt an attack on Iran was imminent, providing another example of ever-escalating tensions between Tehran and the West over its nuclear program,” reports the Associated Press. “In a clear shot across the bow, the deputy head of Iran’s armed forces, Mohammad Hejazi, told state media on Tuesday: ‘Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions,’ according to the Reuters news agency….American officials have pressed Israel in recent days to delay any strike on Iran, fearing the resulting instability in the region could outweigh an attempt to disable Iran’s nuclear facilities. The official news agency IRNA said the four-day air defense war games, dubbed ‘Sarallah,’ or ‘God’s Revenge,’ were taking place in the south of the country and involve anti-aircraft batteries, radar, and warplanes. The drill will be held over 73,000 square miles near the port of Bushehr, the site of Iran’s lone nuclear power plant. Iran has held multiple air, land, and sea maneuvers in recent months as the tensions increase.”

OTHER KEY HEADLINES TO TRACK:

Thanks for the Charts

Submitted by ReachWest on February 21, 2012 - 5:26pm.

Thanks Turd. The seemingly un-ending upward slope of the S&P has me very nervous. Things will turn soon and I fear it will be violent. I continue to be bullish on Oil and specifically on Canadian oilsands crude - this geopolitical mess in MENA just keeps getting deeper and deeper.

And - yes - I believe the Cartel is happy to wear us all down - it's part of the plan - but it is certainly tiring and disgusting.

UPDATE: Edit to add this short Cartoon Newscast for today.

This, too, from Joel Rosenberg

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on February 21, 2012 - 5:26pm.

MODERATOR

The butchery of the Assad regime is horrifying to behold. More than 6,000 Syrians have been brutally murdered by the thugs in Damascus. The evil Assad government must be brought down and brought to justice, or face judgment.

Bible prophecy tells us in Isaiah 17:1-3 and Jeremiah 49:23-27 that Damascus will be destroyed as a city in the last days. Scripture doesn’t tell us exactly when or how this will happen, but I believe that day is steadily approaching.

McCain decries 'daylight' between Israel, US over Iran

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 21, 2012 - 5:31pm.

McCain decries 'daylight' between Israel, US over Iran

By HERB KEINON02/21/2012 21:30

After meeting Netanyahu, US senator says there is tension between Washington and J'lem over the Iranian threat; McCaine takes issue with Gen. Dempsey's appraisal of Iran as rational.

John McCain By Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Just hours after meeting Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, US Senator John McCain (R-AZ) said Tuesday there was "daylight" and "tension" between Jerusalem and Washingtonover the Iranian issue.

"There should be no daylight between America and Israel in our assessment of the [Iranian] threat," McCain said at a Jerusalem press conference. "Unfortunately there clearly is some." <Rest of the Article>

Turd check this out...weapon of mass distruction

Submitted by GoldMania3000 on February 21, 2012 - 5:36pm.

http://www.videobash.com/photo_show/sexy-girl-16561

I think Iran is going to use this to destroy us all

Thanks, Turd.

Submitted by Titus Andronicus on February 21, 2012 - 5:40pm.

Thanks, Turd.

Iran may announce uranium enrichment at Fordow

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 21, 2012 - 5:41pm.

Iran may announce uranium enrichment at Fordow: Report

Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:40PM

A new report says Iran was expected to announce the official launch of uranium enrichment at Fordow nuclear facility when it unveiled nuclear achievements last week.

The announcement, however, did not happen and was postponed to another time, Iranian website Mashregh reported on Tuesday.

"Fordow nuclear facility is in a situation where its launch would be announced soon officially," the paper said.

Experts believe launching the facility before the new round of talks between Iran and the P5+1 (the US, UK, France, Russia, and China plus Germany) would have considerable effects on the negotiations.

The Fordow nuclear facility, Iran's second site for enriching uranium, is located in Qom Province, 160 kilometers (100 miles) south of Tehran. <Rest of the Article>

Good grief

Submitted by Bugzy on February 21, 2012 - 5:50pm.

Iran has been placed under siege. Much like castles of old.

If they really wanted to do a preemptive strike, do you really think they would tell anyone? No!

So what is going on?

1) Either it is Western rhetoric - much like the nuclear thing, in order to give the West an excuse to preempt the preemptors. And thus start a war, out of defense of course.

2) Iran is making threats in an act of self defense. You want to stop our oil? no problem, we will do it for you, today. You want to attack us? Back off or else.

If you want to punch someone in the face, you just do it. If you want to avoid a conflict, you explain just exactly how you will tear them a new one if they start anything. You do not warn your opponents first if you really want to take them down.

At least that is how it was where I grew up.

Use the Petro dollar...

Submitted by Patrancus on February 21, 2012 - 5:57pm.

Use the Petro dollar or else. Anyone or anything that gets in their way will be bombed, disappear or be picked up and jailed in some obscure Federal lock up and forgotten, it is how they hold onto the reins of power they have held since the Roman empire.

off the pressess from rickards

Submitted by GoldMania3000 on February 21, 2012 - 6:07pm.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/02/21/federal-reserve-driven-inflation-hurts-investors

thanks Turd

Submitted by SilverWealth on February 21, 2012 - 6:20pm.

Thanks for the charts Turd. Good ones all.

I am very happy for the Iran people

Submitted by Airgead on February 21, 2012 - 6:22pm.

To make progress on their peaceful nuclear program!

Iran has a real advantage over the US: it doesn't have a history of throwing nukes at other parts of the world!

WOW... 26th.

Submitted by WakoMako on February 21, 2012 - 6:32pm.

watch out , you podium beasts, i'm moving up, just like Argentum and Aurum last week.

I think, we turds, have a happy smile on our face these days.

Thank You all for enrichning my knowledge and understanding of these matters.

my heart goes out to the iranian people

Submitted by boatman on February 21, 2012 - 6:42pm.

oppressed by the ruling religious fanatics who just last year shot them down in the street.

and who bring the world closer to war by repeatedly calling for the vaporization of tel aviv while on the road to producing nukes.

their idiocracy exemplified by the denial of the fact of the holocaust.

i hope for regime change in tehran, as do most of the iranian people.

oh, and in washington, also.

Tar sands

Submitted by opticsguy on February 21, 2012 - 6:46pm.

There's a reaon they are called "tar" sands and not oil sands. There are some good discussions on the Oil Drum. This stuff is essentially tar. It needs to be melted with steam to get it out of the ground (hence the 2:1 EROI). I read in the past that the gasoline and light HC yield is a half to a third of light crude. In other words, you will only get a fraction of the gasoline out of a barrel of the stuff.

The European refineries are used to sulfur-free Libyian and North Sea crude. They can't refine Canadian tar with out a large capital investment. We would have to do that for them.

sewfarsewgood

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 21, 2012 - 6:48pm.

SFSG ~ Welcome aboard!

Just checking in for the first time today and saw a couple other newbs on the previous thread. Welcome also.

Lots of catching up to do. Thanks for the threads TF.

zilver

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 21, 2012 - 6:50pm.

Are you actually that much of a hater or are you just being sarcastic?

Please expand your thoughts for us. Did you just advocate for the annihlation of an entire country?

I personally deleted

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on February 21, 2012 - 6:58pm.

MODERATOR

The comment by zilverriger.
I will not tolerate the advocacy of mass destruction and death. Period.
If you want to discuss the implications of military action...fine.
To call for the destruction of a nation is unacceptable.

Rothschild CB's Cry Out As They Strike You

Submitted by I Run Bartertown on February 21, 2012 - 6:59pm.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1156199/posts

"July 25, 1990 - Saddam Threatens US with Terrorist Attacks"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://justanothercoverup.com/politics/saddam-husseins-baath-party-threatens-us-interests-anywhere/

"Saddam Hussein’s Baath party threatens U.S. interests anywhere!"

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/956084.stm

Saddam threatens Israel

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/gaddafi-threatens-attacks-on-europe/2011/07/01/AGP7G8tH_story.html

Gaddafi threatens attacks on Europe

------------------------------------------------------------

It's Downright Spooky. It's almost as if Iran's threats are, I don't know, part of a script playing out or something. Gosh, I hope they don't start throwing babies out of incubators again. I always feel obliged (as a good Patriot) to hate whichever group of people that I'm told do that (every 10 years or so, as needed, to install CB's and make everything ok).

I must have been lied to ....

Submitted by ranger7 on February 21, 2012 - 7:00pm.

in school. I was told that the US dropped two nukes on a nation that attacked us, and by doing so quickly ended a war that Japan would have lost either way. The nukes saved countless lives.

OTOH, Iran has threatened to use nukes as a first strike.

But demented minds can twist facts in remarkable ways if Allah commands.

ranger7

Submitted by Yooper Rick on February 21, 2012 - 7:07pm.

Are you only now finding out that you were lied to in school? About everything.

Today seem too easy ....

Submitted by sewfarsewgood on February 21, 2012 - 7:11pm.

... compared to the hard fought price action of the last month. I'm not convinced we're breaking out just yet, especially 2 days before silver option expiry on a delivery month. Jesse has his silver option expiry hit job chart up tonight. Tread carefully .....

belgian tv docu series about 1929 crisis

Submitted by zilverreiger on February 21, 2012 - 7:14pm.

http://programmas.canvas.be/category/1929/

@zilver - Someone is deleting my

Submitted by Bugzy on February 21, 2012 - 7:16pm.

I am not sure if you are talking about the WEST or IRAN here. For the record I have no religious beliefs whatsoever.

IRB

Submitted by punchbowl on February 21, 2012 - 7:26pm.

Syria is on deck right now for "regime change" so it is Assad's forces that are killing the incubator babies. That part of the script is priceless and it shouldnt be long before there are reports of the primitive Iranians threatening Americans or Israelis as they rest in incubators.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2098208/Syria-18-premature-babies-die-Homs-hospital-power-cut-caused-Assad-army-attack.html?ITO=1490

The bloodiest 24 hours yet: '18 premature babies die in Homs hospital after power cut caused by fifth day of shelling by Assad troops

Newborn babies in incubators among at least 100 killed today

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hey boatman how bout overthrowing your psychopathic leadership before concerning yourself with anyone else. You do know that the Iranian leadership was installed by Western forces since 1953? Then again real history gets in the way of patriotic indoctrination.

The Powers That Be.... TPTB

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 21, 2012 - 7:50pm.

The news we see, regarding Iran and Syria, is being presented through the lens of their choosing..... we aren't being allowed to see or understand the truth. What I have to remind myself, periodically, so that I am not lost in the stew of mis-information is that every person alive today is my brother and sister..... and a great deal of them are focused on the struggle for survival in a way that most of the modern world doesn't have to face. Whether I agree with all of their ideals or not.... isn't so much the issue but whether we can agree to disagree and let each other live in peace.

The world, though, is in a super cycle of change....... the 4th Turning is bringing the convergence of many lines of mayhem which, in a rare event, are all landing within a short span of time. These events have the greatest propensity to cause chain reactions which are unpredictable and chaotic. Behind this modern puppet dance, that we, ourselves, are apart of, are the Powers that Be... the Industrial/Military Complex, the Banking Cartels, Agra, Big Oil. They are aware and participate in the construction of the machinations that we find we are currently living in and those conditions will bring great clashes. TPTB see that the World has an Unsustainable Population, a Diminishing Cheap Energy Supply, and a Collapsing Environment....... They have brought us much of these problems thru their short term profit and screw long term damage scheme, but now they believe that only they can deal the harsh medicine they believe the world needs.... whether we agree or not.

We can't forget.....that Greece....that Syria..... that Iran.... and before that Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya.... are being screwed for what? Resources, Control, Power and Money.... the people seem to factor very little in the decisions other than a byline to justify their actions..... Turd has told us.... and we, independently, know that all of the chaos is spinning with an ever increasing velocity towards a grand reset. Few of us will escape this period without some loss in some way... we can only hope to be as prepared as possible with the best plan in place... :-)

I Do Not Want This War!

Submitted by Katie Rose on February 21, 2012 - 7:51pm.

Seventeen young men from my high school graduating class died in Viet Nam before they reached the age of 21. Others are Disabled Veterans with shattered lives.

Many of the young men I went to college with ended up there as well, and were never quite "right" as a result. Others have criminal records as they learned that once convicted of a crime, the US Military would no longer draft them. So they made sure they were caught stealing some sort of electrical device from a major chain.

I HATE WAR!

It is feeling more and more like the days leading up to Viet Nam. I was too young to really understand what was happening then. Somehow this feels bigger than Iraq and Afghanistan.

I do not believe that Iran and their allies are going to roll over and play dead. If we bring it to them, they will bring it to us on our soil. Our borders have been wide open, and many reports have surfaced of Arab men crossing over our Southern Border, posing as Mexican and Central American males.

I am usually upbeat, but memories flood my mind of young men I sat next to at football games, passed in the halls, and spent my high school years with who are no longer living due to Nam.

I was involved in student government, and deeply involved in the protest movement. Now history shows that I was "being played" as.

The EE has planned this well.

I do not want this war.

Mat 5:9

Blessed [are] the peacemakers : for they shall be called the children of God .

sometimes its

Submitted by boatman on February 21, 2012 - 7:57pm.

hard to believe the socialist agenda exposed by some here.

with all our faults and mistakes and every other fault, i love AMERICA just like ron paul does.....still the best country in the world.

i am an american, not a citizen of the world........most of which is delusional.

communism has failed in every case.

ya'll need to get over it.

Marx was wrong when he did not considering human nature.

we are .....who we are.

haters can shove it.

I agree

Submitted by adrock on February 21, 2012 - 7:57pm.

I HATE WAR!

It is feeling more and more like the days leading up to Viet Nam. I was too young to really understand what was happening then. Somehow this feels bigger than Iraq and Afghanistan.

I am usually upbeat, but memories flood my mind of young men I sat next to at football games, passed in the halls, and spent my high school years with who are no longer living due to Nam.

I was involved in student government, and deeply involved in the protest movement. Now history shows that I was "being played" as.

The EE has planned this well.

MSM is pumping up the fact over the last few days that 'iran might strike first' utter bull$hit propaganda - reeks of a FF being planned.

Bingo

Submitted by I Run Bartertown on February 21, 2012 - 7:57pm.

"Our borders have been wide open, and many reports have surfaced of Arab men crossing over our Southern Border, posing as Mexican and Central American males."

The only jihadi who is a danger is the jihadi we allow on our soil. Use the ships to send them home, use the planes to airdrop them back to where they belong...not Dearbornistan or Londonistan...

Amen, Katie!

Submitted by badScooter on February 21, 2012 - 8:22pm.

not much more to say about it that that...

Iran

Submitted by TinHat on February 21, 2012 - 8:25pm.

Iran proposing a preemptive strike to counter Israel's preemptive strike. Hmmmm sounds kind of crazy.

Its the DEBT Stupid!

Submitted by OutLookingIn on February 21, 2012 - 8:26pm.

Proven throughout history, only 3 ways to clear debt;

1/ Pay it off

2/ Default

3/ Go to war

Looks like option number three! What a surprise? NOT!

All the 'Hawks' are out beating on the war drums in the MSM, whipping up the mindless masses to a fever pitch.

Those evil, nasty, baby killing, raping, etc. etc. etc... I think I feel sick to my stomach now... YAK

IRB - OBummer seems determined

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 21, 2012 - 8:27pm.

to ignore the illegal alien problem because he wants new illegal voters.... I have never understood the argument that we should ignore it.... and we accept that every other nation doesn't..... A nation is defined by its borders and its laws. If we allow illegal aliens to flood our services, which they are by the millions, then... again... are we a nation of law? Nope.

If the United States needs more workers in Agriculture, then we should do it by creating a legal means..... otherwise, we have made our bed and we are having to lie it....

@Katie Rose - You bring a truth

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 21, 2012 - 8:29pm.

that I find always real and heart felt.... thanks for always sharing it with us!

Was anyone here

Submitted by ActionFive on February 21, 2012 - 8:42pm.

one of the weekend gold future buyers that caused the Sunday open gap thinking- Hey, turmoil in Iran/ME (like everyday recently)- I better put an order in? Never mind the timely Sunday night smacker/daily shorting- I'm gonna buy.

Bold/stupid/smart traders/or just chart painting? Chart painter says- move this while your pants are around your ankles. Daily priceline moved down to 1725 area/over weekly. ES painted/they let crude move/they need to let commodities rise some or it makes a fake market look too fake.

Just making this stuff up.