Option Expiry, a 3-day Weekend and a Raid on Gold and Silver. What a Surprise!

It what should come as a shock to no one, the metals have been mercilessly driven lower today following a positive Comex open. All while the dollar was flat, too. Hmmmm. Who would have seen that coming?

Today is the third Friday of the month. This means that options on stocks and stock indices expire this afternoon. This includes all ETFs, most importantly GLD and SLV. So, after a surprisingly positive overnight and Comex open, the raid was ON. Further impacting the selling pressure is the 3-day weekend that lies ahead for the U.S. With all the crazy shit going on in the world these days, nervous and weak-handed longs would rather be out than in over the weekend and, in all honesty, can you blame them? Here at 10:30 EST, I expect the PMs to remain under pressure for a while longer, maybe stabilizing and trending higher toward the close and on the Globex. We'll see.

paper_2-17gold1.jpgpaper_2-17silv1.jpg

So, I'm sitting chilly right now. I don't want to fiddle with silver just yet because it faces its own option expiry next week. I'd like to buy some gold but I'm waiting for it to dip toward 1705 again and I still think (hope) that it could fall to 1680, as well. Again, we'll see.

paper_2-17gold6.jpgpaper_2-17silv6.jpg

Here's an updated chart of the POSX. For now, it looks like its wants to head lower. (Now that I've typed that, I'm sure it will head higher.) At any rate, until we get some kind of actual resolution in Greece next month, The Pig will likely continue to fluctuate around in this 79.60 + 1.00 area.

paper_2-17pig.jpg

A Turdite pointed out yesterday that main metal correlation is actually silver vs the euro. He has a valid point. Take a look at the charts below. For fun, do what I do: Print them. Put one on top of the other and then hold them up to the sun or some other bright light. (This is how we did it in the old days!) Note the ridiculously high correlation and then ask yourself this all-important question: WHY?? Why would these two, mostly-unrelated items trade in such close correlation? To me, the answer is WOPR. Some folks claim that 90%+ of the PM markets are HFT algos (WOPRs). These two charts would certainly seem to confirm that. Why else would a monetary and industrial metal move in lock-step with a particular currency? For instance, does silver mining capacity and production have anything to do with European stability and growth? Not really. So, again, if the fundos are unrelated, why do these two trade together?

paper_2-17eur.jpgpaper_2-17silvd.jpg

Crude is rolling again today. I have a high of 103.88 and a last of 103.26. The area around 103.50 is very significant resistance. Be on the lookout, though, for a false breakout that stops at 105. Above 105, it's headed back to 115 and $4.00/gallon gasoline. You've got to figure that The O'bottom Regime would very much like to avoid that eventuality.

paper_2-17crude.jpg

Lastly, I give you this ES (mini S&P) chart without further comment.

paper_2-17es.jpg

Just two "news" items for you today. First, there's this. In one sense, it's a happy story as the folks that found this stash will be rewarded. Primarily, though, this story makes me kind of sad. I imagine that someone, fearing confiscation by the Nazis, hid their gold. That person then never returned get it because, I imagine, he/she died in the conflict. In the end, it just goes to demonstrate once again that humans and fiat are mortal. Gold lives eternal.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/raining-gold-secret-1-million-gold-stash-discovered-203724430.html

And then there's this. I saw this earlier today and now it's been picked up by ZH. I have no idea what the heck is going on here but something is seriously f'd up. First there was this:

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/open-letter-to-secretary-of-department.html

and this:

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/guardia-di-finanza-to-bloombergdie-welt.html

And now there's this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/6-trillion-us-bonds-seized-zurich

and this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/why-were-trillions-fake-bonds-held-chicago-fed-crates

Thoughts anyone??

That's all for now. I'm recording this week's podcast in an hour or so and I'll post it later this afternoon so please come back and listen to it. Also, keep a close eye on the CoT numbers and any changes in the silver lease rate heading into the weekend. Next week promises to be another wild one!

TF

Comments

murphy's picture

first

first?

Me and Pining Mc Gee

See video

Edit: I was getting a complex of always being a thurd

Xeno's picture

Firsts

Good one Murph.

SuperLeggera's picture

3

because I don't try hard enough

proton777's picture

My watch stopped

and after putting in a new battery, I noticed the very sharp decline in the PMs.  So I conveniently was able to set my watch for 11:00 a.m.  Thank you, EE.

lairdwd's picture

Previous 1735 raids ended at 1715

other than the 1705 raid done on a stronger dollar background. Expect the same.

1715/33.05 - go LONG

Senseosensei's picture

And then there is this, thoughts anyone

Yeah i have some, but this plunges you deep into the rabbit hole.

This is the story about Dragon families battling it out with the Rothchilds, presented by David Wilcock.

http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/995-lawsuit-end-tyranny

The story you present today could be part 2, or the same bonds.

adrock's picture

ZH 2009

SuperLeggera's picture

2 trillion

The $2 trillion was a story from Feb 20, 2011.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Hey Murph!

I like you.  Alot.   But perhaps not quite THAT much...   ;-)

Well done on your first, I'll see you in the bacon-off pools later.

Groaner's picture

It wasn't too long ago that Fridays

were always up days for the metals.. but they have to kill those in the money options. 

I think this is clearly shown when you read the charts.. duhh

Turd Ferguson's picture

For those interested

MODERATOR

I have an order in to buy an Apr12 1750 call. Currently trading at 25 and my order is at 23. I'll keep you posted.

Tyler's picture

This story may indicate

there is more of a power struggle among TPTB than we realized.

or

it's a bizarre false-flag.  why else would it be in the MSM?

it does seem important though

Red Pill's picture

Yeah i have some, but this

Yeah i have some, but this plunges you deep into the rabbit hole.

This is the story about Dragon families battling it out with the Rothchilds, presented by David Wilcock.

http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/995-lawsuit-end-tyranny

The story you present today could be part 2, or the same bonds.

this "story" is nonsense, the "law suit" presents no evidence, the story tellers believe in Aliens and millions of tonnes of secret gold hidden under Taiwan, and Fulford is clearly on psychedelic drugs.

http://red-pill.org/comedy-conspiracy-sunday-dragon-files/

you cant just believe everything you read on the internet you know, a little critical thinking and investigation of your own is required.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Here's a shocker

MODERATOR
Groaner's picture

I think someone should email the CFTC and

let them know that the trading in the metals seems suspect! I am sure they will do something about it.

Senseosensei's picture

@ Red Pill

Thank you for being so concerned about my critical thinking.

Tyler's picture

@ red pill

would love to hear your explanation for this story.  i'm open to hearing anything

Dr G's picture

Meh, the stars are aligning

Meh, the stars are aligning perfectly for the Cartel and this is all they can do? Drop silver 50 cents and drop gold $18? 

What happened to the good old days where silver would get kicked in the nuts for $3+ and gold would get castrated for $80?

Knowing me, I've probably spoken too soon.

DISCLAIMER: Long, long, long, long physical gold and super long, long, long physical silver.

Dr G's picture

Yeah, they better hurry and

Yeah, they better hurry and snatch up the London exchange (as if it isn't in Blythe's back pocket already) before PAGE opens. 

I sense the fear and desperation in the Cartel.

What is the latest on the PAGE opening date? Still June?

Groaner's picture

don't encourage them

they are doing fine on their own

SRSrocco's picture

THE WORLD GETS MORE STRANGE EVERYDAY

This $6 Trillion in FAKE US TREASURIES is just more evidence that the world has gone completely wacko.  Jim Willie has written several articles about the possibility of $2 Trillion in naked US Treasuries... so the insane PAPER WORLD continues as gold and silver gets clobbered once again.

There is also more STRANGE NEWS coming from CITIGROUP:

Citigroup Says Peak Oil Is Dead

Citigroup announced to the world Thursday that peak oil is dead. The controversial idea that world crude oil production is almost at its peak and will soon begin an irrevocable long-term decline has been laid to rest in the highly productive shale oil formations of North Dakota, with potentially big consequences for oil prices, the bank said.

....“The belief that global oil production has peaked, or is on the cusp of doing so, has helped to fuel oil’s more than decade-long rally,” Citigroup said in a note to clients. “This is now all changing because of what is happening in North Dakota,” where new technology has led to a large and unexpected surge in oil production from shale rock.

After decades of decline, “U.S. oil production is now on the rise, entirely because of shale oil production,” said Citigroup. Shale oil could add almost 3.5 million barrels a day to US oil production between 2010 and 2022 and has already slashed 1 million barrels a day from U.S. oil imports. One day it may allow the U.S. and Canada to be self-sufficient in oil, it said.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

This again is the BRAIN DAMAGE I spoke about in a prior post.  While it is true that technology has increased production of SHALE OIL & GAS, it does so at a much lower EROI- energy returned on invested. 

The notion that the United States will be able to increase SHALE OIL 3.5 mbd by 2022 is a RED HERRING because shale oil fields have TWO-YEAR 80% exponential depletion rates.  There is no way to increase production all that much country-wide due to the fact you have to keep drilling these wells to keep production growing.  Once drilling stops... production falls exponentially.

I am completely surprised that grown adults who more than likely went to college and got nice degrees come out with this sort of nonsense.  Even if the world started to tap into SHALE OIL, the depletion coming from conventional oil fields will not allow the world to grow production.  Here is the graph from my Peak Silver Revisited article showing the depletion from Shale Oil fields:

Again, it really amazes me how IQ's have suddenly dropped the past decade when I look around and see just how insane the majority of highly educated people regurgitate crap like this.

Then we can't forget about the EXPORT LAND MODEL that calculates the drop of Net Oil Exports.  Here is an example:

lairdwd's picture

Looks like one more leg down should just about do it

They set a couple bull traps and then pushed it lower. Looks like one more leg down should just about do it. (assuming DXY stays put). 

I still hold to 1715/33.05 , although silver could break to 32.8, but not likely.

Red Pill's picture

would love to hear your

would love to hear your explanation for this story.  i'm open to hearing anything

publicity hoax or scam along these lines

Jasper's picture

Oil vs. Gold

I wonder how long the divergence between yellow and black gold will continue?

lairdwd's picture

Hopefully this raid, along with Greek deal sets up Tuesday

For a nice pop. Greek deal with EUR/USD breaking through 1.33 could spell trouble for the cartel leaving them exposed with all those fresh shorts. 

IndigoStar7's picture

Paper Bonds Will Need To Become Gold Bonds

Thanks for the update. Lots to ponder up above.

My short comment is "normal" bonds will become so untrustworthy that the introduction of gold bonds is inevitable and likely by the U.S.  when it appears they are out of wiggle room. They'll do so before China does the same thing at some point.

I think of GLD as the perfect test vehicle that has established that trust of paper gold globally. I realize what most of us think about GLD and SLV and the fractionalized aspect we don't trust or think is valid etc.  I agree with all of that but none of what we think really matters. Sad, but true.

The big picture to the majority of investors who have no clue about fractionalized gold/silver might be that a gold backed U.S. bond (never redeemable for the phyz) is the safest thing going based on our supposedly huge (and unseen/unproven) gold reserves. That's what people know and have been led to believe forever. Fort Knox is engrained in people's minds. Not in ours, but the majority of people who have blind trust and faith in the system that's in place. 

Eventually, as demand for regular U.S. bonds  dwindles, might the U.S. go to a gold backed bond to draw in more revenues  if they offer the gold backed bonds with a higher rate of interest with a long duration of at least 20-30 years?  If money is still pouring in seeking "safety" at super low rates, then what might happen if the mere mention of gold is attached to bonds and the future pay out is more fiat that they'll ALWAYS make sure is available in the future? Money will come flooding into Treasury coffers relative to what is happening right now with the outflows were hearing of.

GLD has been the test pilot the whole time and it's been proven successful even if we don't trust it or believe in it. None of that will matter if the U.S. offers gold backed bonds that will be  extremely fractionalized in the same manner.  Just imagine how many bonds or the size of the debt that they might be able to sell if they NEVER have to physically account for the actual amount of phyz gold they have.  It will make GLD look like a penny stock at some point.

Like Dr G said a few days ago, they are extremely good at kicking the can and changing gears to whatever works at the moment until they have to shift gears again. They've been doing it for decades.  

We haven't seen anything yet as far as what they might pull out of their playbook and I believe this goes on much, much  longer then we feel it can or should be allowed to. Just look at who is doing the "allowing" or making the laws or changing the financial accounting standards and definitions.

JPM doesn't have to adhere to any CFTC position limits due to grand-fathering? They face no repercussion's from anyone and they're in control due to their sheer size and ability to collapse the entire system if their held to a standard everyone else must adhere to.

Why would they stop now doing what they're doing?  They won't. 

News thread below...

 http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3172/daily-dphaze-news-machine

Turd Ferguson's picture

Check this out

MODERATOR

Nope. Nothing to see here. A perfectly "natural and free" market. Yessirree.

large_2-17gold2.jpg

Turd Ferguson's picture

Funny you should ask

MODERATOR

I've been in touch with our pal, Ned. He's working on a new piece regarding the PAGE and he's more excited than ever about the implications of what's going on there.

Just be patient. Working with and through the mainland Chinese on things like this is always challenging.

Tyler's picture

scam

i'm pretty sure the nigerian scam was not a "threat to the international financial system" and did not require international police to be involved for months...

i don't mind that you challenged someone's post, but it would be nice if you had an alternative idea you had put some more thought into

anyway, it's Friday - have a great long weekend everyone!

Groaner's picture

It infuriates me

what a scam

Groaner's picture

It infuriates me

what a scam

lairdwd's picture

Turd - if you take that chart out further - you can see more

of the same pattern. Two other raids from 1735 to 1715, and then another one at 1740 to 1720 area. 

Seems like their algorithm is to push it down 20 points over some predetermined timeframe at gold $5 dollar increments.  My guess is that they can't leave these algo's on without a trader monitoring them, so hopefully Sunday/Monday - the good guys will be able to push it through with a nice EUR/USD spike prompting a decent short cover rally. 

murphy's picture

Pining

Which way to the bacon pools? Are they down the street from the Dark Pools of Soros (sorrow)?

abguy4's picture

Re: BONDS for Gold

Let's cut to the chase on this whole Bonds issue , OK????????

International Bonds, Bank Bonds, Corp Bonds, It does not matter.

Anyone, who exchanges their Gold for a piece of paper is getting scammed.

What part of that is hard to understand~!?

I care not how fancy the inscription at the top, or how many colored inks are used,

or how many noble faces are depicted, here's the bottom line,

when you exchange Gold for paper;

Your Gold is gone, and you got a fancy ass-wipe in yur hand.

Are we clear???????????????

henateme's picture

CounterFIAT Bonds

In Jim Rickards' Currency Wars he mentions a fictional scenario, while participating in a currency war game, where Japan discovers large shipments of counterfeit hundred dollar bills.  In this fictional scenario Swiss banks had been scammed by these hundred dollar bills.  Jim Rickards wrote, "The Swiss banking losses and the large size of the interdicted shipment were enough to cast doubt on the value of US currency held abroad."

Could this be a strikingly similar real scenario?  Six trillion in counterfeit US bonds discovered?  Financial war by other nations to undermine the value of US bonds?  Will foreign nations now question the value of the US bonds they hold?

You should all read Rickards' Currency Wars.  There is a lot of prescient information contained within.

Thoughts?

HeNateMe

Exbroker's picture

This is like................................

Watchin paint dry! Oh me! Oh My! Hosinpheffer Incorporated!

Ya...another day in Turdville. Can't catch a break. Get used to it. These lunatics will try to grind you down. 

Now I know why they made pot illegal. No comfort for the weary.enlightened

SRSrocco's picture

JUST A FEW MORE EXAMPLES

I do realize this is TURD'S METAL REPORT... but energy runs the whole system.  Without energy, we don't mine gold or silver.  Here are a few more examples of the EXPORT LAND MODEL showing how exports decline as both production decreases while domestic consumption increases:

In all of these cases, we can see the BLACK LINE (consumption) increasing.  Even though the Middle East is producing more oil today than it was in the 1970-1980 period... NET EXPORTS (in green) are actually lower than they were in the 1970-1980 time frame.  This is because these Middle Eastern countries want to have an economy like ours.  

Increased consumption of domestic oil and a decline of production will make AVAILABLE NET EXPORTS (minus China-India) fall from 35 mbd in 2010 to only 16-18 mbd by 2020.  Any increase from SHALE OIL fields will only minimize this decline somewhat.

lairdwd's picture

It's comical to watch the action

They need to reel in a few more longs, so they tweak the EUR/USD lower 20 pips. The algos fire and buy gold/silver. Then, to push it another leg lower, they tweak the DXY higher, say 10 pips and SLAM on the shorts.

In any event, unless the DXY is shitting the bed,  I would say the crimex close beatdown is in play for today, and we get our final push lower then to 1715/33.05 - heck I'll even go 33 even, as they already executed the LBMA open and close beatdowns, and they need a nice low price to ward off the margin clerks

JimmyTheHand's picture

Fake Bonds - Gold - Currency Wars

I hate to plug a book, but this story about the "fake" bonds, etc... it all smacks of Rickards book Currency Wars.  I can't quote the chapter, but one of the things that the Soviet war team does is attempt to undermine the validity (like it has any anyway but I digress) of the FED's USD system by printing up fake $100 bills in mass quantities and letting them be found.  Same thing as this except this is on a much more massive scale.

Not that this is fake by any means, I am just pointing out the book has a like minded event in it. 

Those containers look pretty real.  If it is fake, what is the motivation of those faking it?  Would a someone attempting to fake it REALLY try to cash in billions/trillions of bonds?  If it is legit, having something in your possesion of this magnitude would be like walking around with 10 pounds of uranium in your back pocket... your gonna get your a$$ handed to you by TPTB.

henateme's picture

@JimmyTheHand

It might be a way to shake the confidence of any nation holding US bonds.  Are they real or are they fake?  If six trillion counterfeit bonds have been found what's to say that my 500 billion bonds are real?

P.S.  See my comment above. 

HeNateMe

henateme's picture

@JimmyTheHand - not to be ticky-tack

But it was not the Russian team that leaks the counterfeit $100 bill story in Rickards' book.  It was actually the gray cell which is any nation other than US, China and Russia.

HeNateMe

Groaner's picture

So the Oligarchs will spend trillions more

on a war with Iran now, the Iraq war cost 4  trillion, the Afganastan war is costing who knows how much, but they consider this money well spent? For whom? The bankers who have nothing to lose but always lots to gain..

I can't wait for Dan. 2:44

Red Pill's picture

Tyler

neither is Wilcox' story a threat to the International financial system. 

happy to discuss further in the ridiculous conspiracy theory section where this one belongs. 

Groaner's picture

You watch, Trader Dan will say about todays action

I guess those hedge funds decided to get out for the 3 day weekend. Not wanting to be long with so much insanity going on in the world.. blah blah blah

cpnscarlet's picture

I feel the spring

Must say that the action of the last two weeks is both fascinating and sickening at the same time. Add to that the dramatic rise in Santa's posts and it makes for times that are even more interesting than usual.

I have no grand insight to what's happening and I stopped believing most numbers that are being posted, especially when the COTs and delivery numbers just don't jive. If there's a comment from the field I'd like to hear, it's what statistics on gold and silver do you believe at this point.

In the end, my gut just feels that spring being compressed to a frightening extent. I've seen springs small and large in my life go high order - fine parts lost forever and hands broken...eyes miraculously spared. It can be ugly. But this time I hope my gut is right. When this tension is released, PMs will enjoy some great gains  and, hopefully, some EE body parts will be metaphorically crushed to a pulp.

I have stacked some more lately and am considering my next Au purchase. I am also trying to decide how to position my shares for March 15.

/rant off/

PS - Doctor - Good luck on the interview. Unfortunately, a job I really wanted (not much $$$ or time, but looked like fun) was a flush - not enough experience.

Colonel Angus's picture

Fake or real bonds???

Does it matter when they are supported by fake USD? Oh yeah, they're gold bonds, so all that gold we have in Ft. Knox...welll....nevermind. (Anyone done the calculations to see the USD value of the gold in Ft. Knox if we believe it is still there? Yeah, me too.)

So is this where the proper valuation of gold comes in? We need to pay off that USD$6T, so we offer the 8000 tons of gold for it, and voila...you tell me what gold is now worth...I get $31250 per ounce. So, I'll let you have an arbitrage here and offer as much gold as you want at $30,000 per ounce. 

California Lawyer's picture

Fake Bonds?

The story is just too damn interesting to dismiss.  Turd's posts of the zerohedge stories from back in 2009 are as complete and thorough an analysis there is.

If all or some of the bonds are fake, this is a very strange story.  If they are real bonds, it is even stranger.  I cannot for the life of me get my head wrapped around either one of these scenarios.  Is Fulford right?  Or is he some drug-addled loon?  Choose one!  If he is a drug addled loon, the so are all of the others, right?

Do I trust the fed govt?  Hell no.  Look at the Christmas bomber story.  Is there any doubt who runs this country?  Open your eyes and stop being manipulated.  Think for yourself.

I view this story like the rumor of fake or non-existent gold at Fort Knox.  Why on earth would TPTB NOT simply open the vault for an audit and stop all of the rumors, UNLESS, there was some truth to them?  I personally believe that the gold was leased out, sold repeatedly, or some combination, and like all fractional banking schemes, is simply a massive fraud perpetrated upon the world.  An audit cannot be allowed to occur, as that would expose the fraud = game over for TPTB.

Do the audit, prove me wrong, and I will happily shut the fu-- up.  Until then, no way, not on the heels of the Christmas bomber story.

Anyhow, regarding these "fake" bearer bonds, I happen to believe that the airing of this story on main stream media is done for one reason: to make it clear to the world that capital flight will not be allowed.  ​Whether the bonds are fake or not, the message is unmistakable.

It goes like this: 

(1) The super rich, like a despotic dictator, or what not, want to keep their ill-gotten booty from being confiscated, or devalued, etc.;

(2) However, the financial system is rife with corruption, and counterparty risk, as everyone at that level knows, such that the last paper safe-haven is US paper;

(3) The super rich are obviously aware of the pending, imminent collapse, either by being tipped off or otherwise;

(4) The super rich correctly predict that digital banking, controlled by the cartel, will either be stopped outright, or temporarily halted to prevent capital flight while a new currency system is implemented;

(5) Since paper instruments, such as massive bearer bonds are easy to transport, they remain the sole credible means left for movement of fantastic sums of capital from one physical place to another [remember, no one at that level trusts anything now but US paper, backed by the US govt, err, nuclear submarines, etc.];

(6) TPTB know this, so

(7) MOPE emerges and crafts a story.  The bonds are fake, forgeries, an elaborate hoax.  Schemes of this sort are NOT to be taken lightly, because they are a global catastrophe [unlike wars, though, that enrich the military industrial complex, <sarc>]!

(8) TPTB both manage expectations of the masses, and simultaneously create fear in the super rich that expatriation of wealth will not be allowed to happen. 

This is the best I can do for now, but who knows what the truth is?

If anything, it reinforces my preparation, because stories like this are just impossible to imagine absent some real panic as we reach the end of the Keynesian experiment.

Tyler's picture

I wasn't talking about Wilcock

I was saying the Bloomberg story says the 6 tril were a threat - and that this isn't the same thing as a nigerian scam.

understand if you're saying wilcock is a scam.  i definitely don't buy a lot of what he says

just interested in theories on this 6 tril story

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