Gold and Silver Update and New Format Questions

Wednesday, February 15, 2012 at 8:13 pm

I hope you've enjoyed this new format today. In what was a trial run, with this post I will have begun seven new threads today for you to peruse and ponder. Five of the threads would be general, public threads in the new format. This note as well as the previous sticky would both be considered "subscriber" content. Again, please don't fear the coming subscription component of the site. I think you'll be quite pleasantly surprised at how affordable a monthly subscription will be and the added revenue will allow us to have a lot more fun. More on that soon. For now, let's update the charts.

The most significant development of the day is the developing breakout of the POSX. As you know, The Pig has traded in a one-point range for 3 weeks while silver has traded as its inverse. Take a look at the chart below and you'll plainly see that Pigatha is attempting to burst from her pen. Will she succeed? Probably...but be cautious. Forex trading will rip you a new one with all of the headfakes and sudden reversals.

Gold and silver continue rangebound but appear to be ready to test their lower ends again. The Cartel seems content to press gold lower under the downsloping trendline I've drawn on the chart. Having failed to break above the trendline today, do not be surprised if gold retests the 1705-15 level very soon. Silver found buyers again above $33. Something tells me that if The Pig continues higher and gold continues lower, we'll soon get another opportunity to see if $33 can hold.

And here's a bonus chart for you. AAPL put a nasty looking Outside Reversal Day on its chart today. You can be certain that the momentum-chasing WOPRs will notice this tomorrow and AAPL will likely continue lower for a while. Remember that AAPL is about 25% of the overall NASDAQ, so, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. If stocks are headed lower while The Pig heads higher, you can imagine what will be happening to the PMs. Just sayin.

Lastly, I have some number for you to ponder and then please post your thoughts in the comments. For the CoT reporting week of 2/7 - 2/14, we saw the following:

Gold: Down $30 Silver: Down $0.81

April OI down 7,647 March OI down 9,208 while May OI up 7,549

Total OI down 4,897 Total OI down 1,136

Over the course of the reporting week, do you think that OI and price fell because specs were selling and closing contracts? Did OI fall because the specs sat tight while The Cartels sold more longs than covered shorts, driving price lower? Is there some other combination you can think of? We'll have some answers on Friday.

That's all for now. Have a great evening. TF

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First bitchez'

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 15, 2012 - 8:18pm.

Ha!

I used to never go for First!

Submitted by JY896 on February 15, 2012 - 8:19pm.

...until seeing Pining's details on what happens, exactly.

So I will be the first to thank Turd for his ongoing efforts. Looking forward to the further development -- but you've already come a long way.

EDIT: And of course, even NOW I get punked by DPH... ;-)

BTW...

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 15, 2012 - 8:23pm.

Thanks big, yellow-hatted dude for all of your work.

The new format promises to be interesting and I'm looking forward to it.

CA Lawyer...Thanks for the shout out at The Daily DPHaze. You have my appreciation as well for what you've brought and keep on bringing to the community.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3172/daily-dphaze-news-machine

JY896

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 15, 2012 - 8:27pm.

Sorry for stealing your thunder. I've been first twice I think and maybe said Bitchez' twice also.

I'm good for another year and will go back to my usual "last post" infamy until then.

If you start charging for content

Submitted by Las Vegas Dave on February 15, 2012 - 8:47pm.

do you really think people are gonna be happy about having to scroll through all the music videos posted by juevenile hipsters like purple haze?

Thanks for all your info and effort Turd but I hope you rethink this one

I remember advising one of my friends about AAPL in '03

Submitted by exiledbear on February 15, 2012 - 8:47pm.

I said that it looked like it made a higher low, and higher highs + higher lows = well you know. I didn't want to short it. Should've bought some.

Anyway, I've been looking for AAPL to turn, but I tend to be early on these things. Maybe AAPL's finally starting to rot? It wouldn't surprise me.

I remember that era. GOOG was higher than gold, and everyone was looking at me weird for being in gold and not GOOG. Didn't get much respect back then. Call me Rodney Dangerfield.

Well you numbskulls, who's laughing now? GOOG is 600 and gold is 1700. Revenge is sweet, even if I can't taunt those people anymore :P

1st uptick in silver lease rates

Submitted by bestever on February 15, 2012 - 8:51pm.

The cartel surely is blowing their load... anyone who can't see that is blind here. They desperately need to keep it capped at $34. Will they be able to? Only time will tell.

AAPL vs Silver and Gold

Submitted by garrylindsay on February 15, 2012 - 8:52pm.

PM's have been trounced compared to AAPL. Best thing was to buy Apple for the olast 5 years and then use the winnings to buy PM's!

Read it and weep! The saddest part is the idiot that sold me my car 6 months ago told me they were all in Google and Apple etc... and that I was a nut for being into PM's. Despite my economic knowledge, as of now I have been financially trounced by the sheep! So sad! At least this type of Nasdaq investing sheep is enjoying him/herself for the last 3 years. I just hope by the time PM's start winning, my neighborhood does not look like Athens or Beirut!

I guess I am just sick of being laughed at by my Apple/Google investing family and friends

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1329353090185&chddm...

The Power of GSR reposted!

Submitted by donnojackshit on February 15, 2012 - 9:01pm.

Reposted as I'm on the other side of the planet and 18 hours outa whack with the bulk of the Turdites.

Fellow Turdites

I usually just read the many great posts here, for which I am truly grateful to The Turd for allowing us this forum and the many great contributors here.

So I thought I would share my strategy to make my stack grow and have it pay me dividends, even if crooked lap dogs like Buffet deliberately mislead the sheeple with "Gold is a lousy investment that doesn't pay dividends".

Working in easy to follow round numbers, let us assume you currently have 10 x 1 oz bars of Gold and 100 x 1 oz silver Eagles as your accumulated stash.

1. So at GSR = 50, (NOW at the moment), you trade your 10 oz's Gold for 500 oz's Silver.

(If you don't have a stash yet, buy some silver now to start working the GSR.)

2. Major GSR move #1. (within the next 12 months but maybe sooner).

Say in 1 month, 6 months or 1 year from now, the GSR tumbles to 25.

Then take the entire 500 oz's Silver and trade for 20 oz's Gold.

You have now doubled your physical stash. You now have 20 oz's Gold and 100 oz's Silver in your stash, and the ability to continue capitalizing whether the GSR continues down or goes back up.

If the GSR continues South, then you still have part of your stash to deploy. Say,

   GSR = 20, then swop 20 ASE's for 1 AGE
   GSR = 10, then swop 20 ASE's for 2 AGE's
   GSR = 5, then swop 20 ASE's for 4 AGE's
   GSR = 2, then swop 20 ASE's for 10 AGE's
   GSR = 1, then swop 20 ASE's for 20AGE's

If at any of these GSR's, eg say at 10, the GSR then starts to climb back to 50 and beyond, then instead of just doubling your money you can multiply it by 5 times for just that one swop and so on.

The numbers get mouth watering crazy, particularly if you get a chance for 3 or 4 major GSR moves from when you started.

2. Major GSR move #2. (another 6 to 12 months, say in 2013)

So, If the GSR (from 25) now heads back to 50, swop 10 oz's Gold for 500 oz's Silver,

You now have your original 100 ASE's + 10 oz's Gold + (500 ASE's + 10 oz's Gold).

   If the GSR then continues to 55, swop 1 oz gold for 55 oz's silver
   If the GSR then continues to 60, swop 1 oz gold for 60 oz's silver
   If the GSR then continues to 65, swop 1 oz gold for 65 oz's silver
   If the GSR then continues to 70, swop 1 oz gold for 70 oz's silver

You can continue all the way past a GSR of 100 plus with this method and this is all bonus silver ounces (55 + 60 + 65 + 70 ........+100)

In this way, you can easily double your stash, quite possibly on a yearly basis, but even more if the GSR moves past the ranges of 25 to 50.

You now have your dividend stream, so suck shit Buffet!

You will lose anywhere from GSR 2.7 plus on your swops, but this is a small price to pay.

I don't know how many more times this GSR opportunity will arise, but the beauty about this method is you ALWAYS HAVE PHYSICAL and a good spread on both gold and silver to hedge your bets on future price possibilities, depending on whether you believe gold or silver may be the answer.

You are not gambling, have no counterparty risk and are not predicting the future, but reacting with a plan as events unfold.

You are not concerned about price unless you need to cash a few onces in to survive (gold on the high GSR, silver on the low).

You can turn a humble small stack into something truly amazing!

Over the last 30 years, thanks to the CRIMEX, the GSR has a major move (I define a major move of at least 30 points GSR) at least once a year and we could see more majors/year?

The range is typically between 30 and 60, but has been down to 25 and up to 100.

With increasing volitility and upheavals in the world, these outliers should all be left in the dust in the next 5 years. (GSR>100 and 1:1 Ag to Au would be amazing to behold!

You could do this on allocated bullion too so as to minimise the transportation issues, but at this point in the game, I don't trust any bullion or trading operation with my physical.

Develop your own plan, with your own numbers and as I say to all the criminal bankers, polititians and crooked centrist scumbags,

"Fuck the Fucking Fuckers!"

It looks like with the low comment

Submitted by johnboatcat on February 15, 2012 - 9:12pm.

counts on some of your posts today that this new format is not working well. With no announcement of new posts on the old post people are just staying on the old post and commenting. By the time they check for a new post there are two or three new ones. Need to announce the new post so general posters will move on and topic posters can keep the conversation going.

Hmm, would you advise an

Submitted by wonderer on February 15, 2012 - 9:16pm.

to donnojacksheet, if you get my drift?

Hmm, would you advise an elderly widow to risk her paltry savings to try this?

Inquiring minds and all that...

GSR follow up question received.

Submitted by donnojackshit on February 15, 2012 - 9:31pm.

I thought I'd post a question I received.

"I am mightily intrigued by your strategy. As the LCS are not that eager to do trades, especially for significant quantities of metal, what do you recommend as an alternative institution to make these trades? Also, is there a standard premium or "fee" I should expect that would be considered fair?

Thank you in advance for your time,"

Hi there

I am not from the USA, so we don't have the number of LCS's you guys do, but my example was based on a smaller amount of precious metals.

The way to perhaps do larger swops is on multiple smaller tranches either with the same dealer or different dealers or work it every day.

The LCS's in our joint always seem happy to do the swops, because they get a buy and a sale cut. The trick is to develop relationships before you need to do the trade, and also negotiate the swop commission to where it is worth their while but also yours.

In the future, a particular swop may become challenging due to say a retail shortage of a particular metal, so I am always "working it" by reading this blog and visiting my preferred LCS's.

The trick I think is have well defined tranches that are a unit size that are portable by yourself only. (500 oz's Ag = 15.5Kg, so 1000 oz's Ag is my maximum tranche size, as I can just carry this in a "topper" leather carry bag whilst making it appear not so heavy.

I am only recommending physical swops, but depending on your comfort level, you could trade the swops using perhaps Sprotts or Bullion Vault or Perth Mint or whoever you have researched thoroughly and trust that your bullion is not hypothecated anf fully allocated and there!

The commissions on these my run you up to 15% (Never done it so check) but you still can make a shit load of money.

I have a range of LCS's in my country who accept 3% as the total transaction cost. 2.7% is an amount reported by an old turdite margartine here about 6 months ago.

Another "curve ball", you can do the swops with a combination of the other precious metals like platinum and rhodium too, however I believe silver is going to provide the biggest bang for my buck in the future.

Hope this helps?

Turd

Submitted by Smiddywesson on February 15, 2012 - 9:35pm.

Never mind, I don't have an opinion.

Amazing Day and Phenomenal Effort....

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 15, 2012 - 9:45pm.

Turd...

You were an obviously a very busy man today and I'm glad that you were willing to try a different way of presenting a lot of information. I am hopeful that the character of this site won't change too much with the launch of the "Pay" curtain, but I respect that you must do what you think is in your best interests. Great Job!

I like the new format

Submitted by Big L on February 15, 2012 - 9:55pm.

Big L

I dig

Submitted by MisesFan on February 15, 2012 - 9:59pm.

the new format. Keep doing what YOU want to do.

Turd, I think you might

Submitted by tmosley on February 15, 2012 - 10:07pm.

Turd,

I think you might consider a newsletter for a fee rather than limiting online content. Further, more money can be made from conferences and the like.

People tend to want to have something physical for their money, or to have an experience. Check into the model of trade conferences. Those things clean up like crazy.

Thanks for the input but...

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on February 15, 2012 - 10:19pm.

MODERATOR

...if you don't like the regulars and/or the somewhat irreverent way we do things here, I suggest that you find another site.
The videos, photos and cartoons aren't going anywhere.

Response to: If you start charging for content

I'm glad to see some things never change...

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 15, 2012 - 10:20pm.

....like LVD still being a DB.

The question isnt whether Apple outperformed Gold...

Submitted by kingboo on February 15, 2012 - 10:34pm.

the question is....which asset provides a good store of wealth in uncertain times. A quick look at the charts in 08 gives you a peak into the future....

First post, my liege

Submitted by bad67 on February 15, 2012 - 10:45pm.

I live at 58701, and I have your getaway car (think Thin Lizzy "Jailbreak"). You and Yours are awesome. Thanx to all who have schooled me and helped me to feel sane when I was just dizzy swirling in a sea of stupidity.

I love the new format and hope I can afford the rent.

Subscription?

Submitted by Justin on February 15, 2012 - 10:50pm.

I know opinions are like assholes, especially from someone who doesn't visit here as often as I used too, but if money is an issue I'd like to vote for a return to Blogger. Things were much simpler there and to the point, mainly because it was more focused on what you had to say and the trends you wanted to share in regards to the metals while distributing information for free. I'm not a cheapskate, I just personally don't believe in paying for information(though I do make sure to click on ads for you when I do visit).

I remember when you first started up Along The Watchtower and told people you would shut it down if they continued to post in the comments about conspiracy theories, politics and a number of other things that you didn't like because they were a distraction from the metals. Ever since the switch here that's pretty much all the comments are now along with being spammed with news articles that we can find on our own, links to threads that we could also find on our own in the forums for those who care to view the forums, music videos, copy and pasted lyrics and a number of things that weren't as rampant on Blogger as they are here. I can't say that I haven't been guilty of the same occasionally in the past when I was a regular poster here, but being bombarded with that stuff constantly by the same people only adds to others following suit and is a turn-off for a lot of people, especially those who are first time viewers of your site as has been told to me by people I send links to. One look at the comments and they even question my reliability for recommending that they follow you based on what they see in the comments. Whether you want to admit it or not, that is a direct reflection on you and your site.

Sad to say, but the free Blogger account was better quality than this site has become because 90% of the content there submitted by yourself and others was metals related. The majority of people read what you have to say because they are interested in your views on chart reading and could care less about the other noise which is made blatantly obvious every time you hold a contest and lurkers come out of the shadows in droves to participate. Then they crawl back into their holes and return to just reading your posts while staying out of the comments because they are generally here for one reason and one reason only: your uncanny ability to forecast movements while not selling out and charging for information just as many other authors have done. Not trying to diss you, just sharing my point of view when it comes to someone who doesn't ever pay for subscriptions/information. If all the worthy content is for paying members only then there are zero reasons for non-subscribers to visit Turdville. Just my .02 cents.

SWAP, GSR, and Premiums.

Submitted by artaud23 on February 15, 2012 - 10:50pm.

I just concluded a fairly large and successful PM swap with Provident Metals and, other than postage, found the process to be relatively painless. Also I have done trades at my LCS. Just for comparison, before I decided to go with Provident for the trade, I asked the LCS what they would pay for generic silver one ounce bars (I had a bunch) and was told 7% below spot. Provident paid OVER spot and I was able to get both Volume and Cash discounts on the ASE's I swapped for. Their buy prices on gold coins were also at spot or very close to it. It was scary at first, but now that the deal is done, I see it as a nice way to upgrade and play the GSR as well.

bad67

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 15, 2012 - 10:57pm.

Welcome to Turdville!

Is that you smoking 'em up?

Keep up the good work Turd

Submitted by Turdle GG on February 15, 2012 - 11:03pm.

Turd,

please do whatever you think is right for this site. You've done well so far, so I'm sure your judgment will continue to be good. Thanks for everything.

Dear DPH

Submitted by bad67 on February 15, 2012 - 11:05pm.

Ya, that's me in the white helmet with the huge grin. I've had that car since I was 16 in 1978 (you do the math). I live just a few miles from the facility that Turd fears of his incarceration. I'll drive, you bring the Heineken, and we'll probably have to gag the turd to keep him quiet. Thanks, man.

The Dollar

Submitted by NW VIEW on February 15, 2012 - 11:07pm.

Trying to grab hold of 80. Tomorrow may be exciting.

@bad67 - Welcome

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 15, 2012 - 11:23pm.

Glad you have come the merry O' Land of Turdville!

Re: Subscription?

Submitted by rtabit on February 15, 2012 - 11:42pm.

Personally, I don’t comment because I don’t have the knowledge others on this site have, hopefully that will change in time, so I guess I'm a lurker. I’m new here, about six weeks, so I don’t know how things used to be, but I find if I’m looking for more technical discussions about metals I tend to gravitate towards the forum. I like the comments on this site, to me it’s what sets it apart from the others I’ve visited, the intelligent user base. I also don't mind the videos and cartoons, can't be all work and play all the time. Most of the articles posted here are revenant to the conversation, offering confirming or different point of view, I like it, personally it accelerates the learning process for me. I guess if your a seasoned veteran you may not need it, and may already know about all the other sources of information out there, but that's not the case for me. Also, if there are certain users who comments you don’t want to view, just click the ignore button for that user, I assume you wouldn't see their comments anymore.

@bad67

Submitted by LaMachinna on February 15, 2012 - 11:42pm.

Welcome to the grand ol' land of turds! Come on in, relax and have a good time.

Precious metals and noise

Submitted by Senseosensei on February 15, 2012 - 11:45pm.

I don't understand comments that state that this blog should be about metals, and metals only.

For me it's very obvious that politics, media, healthcare, life in general, are all VERY related to metals.

You can stare at your computer screen for trends all day long, but if we get war with Iran, to name one, you can throw all those precious charts and trends in the waste bin.

That being said, i would like more "what if...." discussions. If this or that happens, how will it play out, what to trade, and how. Sometimes we have those discussions, like when the BLS or Ben speak, but it could be broader.

bad67

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 15, 2012 - 11:46pm.

Pretty cool stuff. Looks like lots of fun!

Glad you stopped in and joined the crew here.

I comment, contribute and I also donate

Submitted by Dr Durden on February 15, 2012 - 11:50pm.

And if I see the same e-convos between members about stupid crap, cartoons and AC/DC vids on the subscription site, I'm out.

Just me. Guess I'm the asshole and you're all growns up...

I'm sure that LV Dave has

Submitted by Dr G on February 15, 2012 - 11:57pm.

I'm sure that LV Dave has some good stuff to add, but I can't see any of it.

He's been on my ignore list ever since August 28. That was the evening that I announced the birth of my 4th child to the folks in Turdland, and LV Dave called me out for being a moron because such an announcement has no place in a metals forum. Never mind that my children are the real reason I stack metals.

For the record, I dislike 99% of the music videos and over 50% of the cartoons that are posted. It's easy enough to scroll past them.

rtabit

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 15, 2012 - 11:57pm.

Nice to see you post and welcome to Turdville.

I'm glad you enjoy the light natured part of the site also and some of the off subject material that's put up by many of us on here. Talking metals and markets 24/7 would be boring and nerve wracking to some extent.

The uptight people with the 'tudes that don't post often except chirping about what they don't like about the site are petulant and drifters.

Since Turd brought up one of

Submitted by Dr G on February 15, 2012 - 11:59pm.

Since Turd brought up one of my favorite companies, AAPL, I thought I'd link to a great blog post. Basically if Apple was on the Dow it would be 2000 points higher than it is now.

Apple, Cisco, and Dow 15000 by Adam Nash.

Here is a quote: "Of course, being who I am, I went home and built a spreadsheet to recalculate what would have happened if Dow Jones had decided to add Apple to the index instead of Cisco back in 2009. Imagine my surprise to see that the Dow be would over 2000 points higher.

In real life, the Dow closed at 12,874.04 on Feb 13, 2012. However, if they had added Apple instead of Cisco, the Dow Jones would be at 14,926.95. That’s over 800 points higher than the all-time high of 14,164 previously set on 4/7/2008.

Can you imagine what the daily financial news of this country would be if every day the Dow Jones was hitting an all-time high?"

An interesting read.

following along...

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on February 15, 2012 - 11:59pm.

MODERATOR

...and in response to Justin, too.

Thank you both for taking the time to offer your opinions. Yes, the old site catered to traders and others who already "got it". Coming from ZH, that was to be expected.

This new site has evolved away from that. My mission now is to take our "message" to the "masses"...the 99.5% of the population who has no idea of what is coming and no idea of how to prepare for it. Perhaps I will fail in spectacular fashion but I have to try.

Coming full circle, this site is returning to its original premise of the "watchtower": If you have been given the vision to see what is coming, it is incumbent upon you to warn as many as possible.

Isaiah 21:8

And the lookout shouted,

“Day after day, my Lord, I stand on the watchtower;

every night I stay at my post. "

Response to: Re: Subscription?

Dear Dr. D

Submitted by bad67 on February 16, 2012 - 12:03am.

I am 50 years old. I love AC/DC. I love PM's. I WILL donate. Why so serious?

Turd's task is a difficult

Submitted by Dr G on February 16, 2012 - 12:07am.

Turd's task is a difficult task. How can we help Turd in reaching out to our friends and neighbors so that they might lay aside the telestial (of lesser importance) things of this world in preparation for that which is celestial (of greater importance).

The 99.5% that Turd mentions remind me of the monkeys in this story that was recounted by Spencer W. Kimball:

"I am reminded of an article I read some years ago about a group of men who had gone to the jungles to capture monkeys. They tried a number of different things to catch the monkeys, including nets. But finding that the nets could injure such small creatures, they finally came upon an ingenious solution. They built a large number of small boxes, and in the top of each, they bored a hole just large enough for a monkey to get his hand into. They then set these boxes out under the trees and in each one they put a nut that the monkeys were particularly fond of.

When the men left, the monkeys began to come down from the trees and examine the boxes. Finding that there were nuts to be had, they reached into the boxes to get them. But when a monkey would try to withdraw his hand with the nut, he could not get his hand out of the box because his little fist, with the nut inside, was now too large.

At about this time, the men would come out of the underbrush and converge on the monkeys. And here is the curious thing: When the monkeys saw the men coming, they would shriek and scramble about with the thought of escaping; but as easy as it would have been, they would not let go of the nut so that they could withdraw their hands from the boxes and thus escape. The men captured them easily.

And so it often seems to be with people, having such a firm grasp on things of the world—that which is telestial—that no amount of urging and no degree of emergency can persuade them to let go in favor of that which is celestial."

Metals content

Submitted by Bugzy on February 16, 2012 - 12:11am.

I suspect two threads per day would be ideal. One for straight metal talk and one for "related" stuff.

There is obviously a demand for the big picture as it does impact everything. Metals is a function of that big picture.

I am here for metals primarily but one cannot argue with the "free market" approach of this site and its organic growth into other related areas.

If it aint broke dont fix it.

Would I pay for a subscription? Probably not. Would I volunteer to donate, probably. I would prefer to pay over the odds for some turdite t shirt. Win win. There are many free sources out there. I currently do not pay for anything. There again I am all in physical and have been for 6 years. You will probably not make me any money.

Now if I was a trader...... I suspect your knowledge would pay for itself pretty quickly. That would be a different matter.

Your manner and intellect and integrity and humility when you guess wrong are the main draw for me. You are one likeable sort of yellow hatted dude.

Ha!!! Just clicked on the store button for the first time ever. Gonna have to have some of those T shirts. Reasonable price too.

Rock on Turd

Submitted by henateme on February 16, 2012 - 12:11am.

Rock on.

Thank you TF

Submitted by Maryann on February 16, 2012 - 12:11am.

You are choosing the narrow road. I can't tell you how much I admire and respect that. I will support your efforts, and I know many others will also. I also know you will be attacked and ridiculed. I pray we can support and encourage each other during this time and that we all warn the people that are within our own circles of influence. That is our responsibility.

Welcome to those lurkers who are now posting. We are very glad to have your input and thoughts!

Paid Subscription: What I like best...

Submitted by SilverRunNW on February 16, 2012 - 12:14am.

Turd, love the idea of a paid subscription model, looking forward to it. I, for one, will become a paid subscriber.

Best thing, there will probably be way less trolls and if there are, they have to pay for the privilege to post their trollish drivel on the "subscriber" posts.

As far as the change-up in format today, I like the structure. Simple!

My guess about the commercial net position in silver

Submitted by Titus Andronicus on February 16, 2012 - 12:15am.

Hey Turd,

My guess to your answer is that the commercial net position will be higher in the next report. (With OI down, I guess that means that the number of commercial shorts covered must have been higher than the number of commercial longs opened. I think that is right.) I wouldn't bet my life on it, but that is my guess. The usual rule being:

Price down, commercial net position up; price up, commercial net position down.

Unless there is a commercial short squeeze going on, in which case you see price up, commercial net position up.

I'm sure there are exceptions, but not many. So my guess for this week could be wrong, but the fact that the above is the usual case is easy, if tedious, to verify.

I don't know how the above is achieved. I certainly believe that there are few aspects of today's markets that are not heavily manipulated by governments, banks, etc. I guess they use HFT, advance insider knowledge of events which move the market, and selling or leasing of physical silver or gold.

For instance, during the last week, there was lots of up and down, sideways movement -- plenty of chance for moneyed interests to steal longs from weaker hands to cover their tracks.

I don't know how it is done, only that it is very, very consistent and it is strange to me that people seem to be regularly surprised by a pattern that must be true over 90% of the time. (True, at least, according to the COT report.)

Another thing: I don't know how to use the information of a quickly falling commercial net position. During a period of quickly rising prices, it is the usual trend in gold and silver. So I personally don't know how to use that information to predict future price action.

The basic book I used to first learn about COT analysis is by Larry Williams: "Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders." My understanding about the COT really comes from that book.

The correlation between negative lease rates and silver/gold price crashes seems very obvious and valuable. It seems to me to be a way of measuring manipulation which occurs outside the Comex and the COT report. I think I heard it from you first. As an indicator, this information is probably as valuable as the COT report itself.

PS: I could be wrong about the above, but I am not an agent of disinformation. Sure I'm stupid or wrong about things from time to time, but that is a different story. I do the best I can to understand the market. I try to be helpful and post what I know here to share with other people. I have certainly learned a lot from this site.

Treefrog ! You must be older than God !

Submitted by Monedas on February 16, 2012 - 12:29am.

Lots of rings in your tree, eh ? My brother showed me his 100 oz Ag ingot around 1967 ! It was one of those wide, shallow ones and it came in a royal purple, velvet "cozy" with a braided draw string ? Hoarders have class !.......Around 1968, I was a student/bartender at a Berkeley Pizza Pub called "Kips" ! Every night one skanky waitress would separate all the silver coins and write the boss a check ! I had every advantage, then.....but it took a tour in Viet Nam to knock a little "cents" into me ! Monedas 2012 Happy hoarding to you !

Nice explanation Titus. So

Submitted by redwood on February 16, 2012 - 12:29am.

Nice explanation Titus. So if I'm reading you right with the impending negative lease rates we should expect silver/gold soon to go down.

Today's experiment…

Submitted by Mudsharkbytes on February 16, 2012 - 12:31am.

Didn't particularly care for it - too much keeping various tabs open on my browser to check what was being posted on each individual thread.

Right now I prefer the one or two bigger threads a day, but that may change after paid subscriptions are instigated.

Did anybody see this today? Mark your calendar - March 31

Submitted by Mudsharkbytes on February 16, 2012 - 12:35am.

<snip> Hacking instructions stuff was here </snip>

Summary: ITT we find out Anonymous is planning to shutdownify the Interwebs on March 31, oh my, lock up your routers people cuz Lulzsec is on the loose...

Why so serious?

Submitted by Dr Durden on February 16, 2012 - 12:39am.

Well, I'm happy to donate to the cause. I don't mind the cartoons and the videos when they're warranted or on the Fri night chillax threads. I've posted them myself, too.

What bothers me now and will be a sure sign of fail on the subscription site for me are the ones who are either too lazy to PM or just don't care about the readers of the Blog enough to take their random conversations about nonsense completely unrelated to the general discussion of the day or the scope of the forum as a whole. Someone above posted a pic of their car smokin' some tread. Awesome! FUCK silver, where can I get one of them!?!?

So go ahead, charge a fee for the extras beyond what you get as leech or even an OS active member, and keep your 20 or so buddies around so they all can e-talk to themselves, make themselves feel special in their circle-jerking, hat tipping, e-worlds with ignore lists a mile long...and maybe one day y'all can have a real life meet up and do some real life ass slapping. I'm sure it will be a hoot.

By the way, I've seen this happen time and time again to other user groups/forums. It's cool for awhile, but always dies a slow painful death. But Turd is the man with the master plan, so it's ultimately up to him.

Damn The Torpedoes

Submitted by Xeno on February 16, 2012 - 12:57am.

fwiw I found the site a bit tedious today, under the old format all the comments on main st. stayed pretty much on topic and the variance was lively and more than tolerable. Besides, if something specific came up then it could always be found in the forums for more detailed commenting.

Having said that... (where have I heard THAT before?)

This is a precious metals site and when you dig in to understand the shinny you cannot do anything but get involved in the whole world and how it all affects that piece in your hand (or visa versa).

And with only one way for the metals to move it'd be foolish for Turd to go back to the way life used to be. Or any of us for that matter. Like it or not we're all in it now.

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!