Gold and Silver Update and New Format Questions

I hope you've enjoyed this new format today. In what was a trial run, with this post I will have begun seven new threads today for you to peruse and ponder. Five of the threads would be general, public threads in the new format. This note as well as the previous sticky would both be considered "subscriber" content. Again, please don't fear the coming subscription component of the site. I think you'll be quite pleasantly surprised at how affordable a monthly subscription will be and the added revenue will allow us to have a lot more fun. More on that soon. For now, let's update the charts.

The most significant development of the day is the developing breakout of the POSX. As you know, The Pig has traded in a one-point range for 3 weeks while silver has traded as its inverse. Take a look at the chart below and you'll plainly see that Pigatha is attempting to burst from her pen. Will she succeed? Probably...but be cautious. Forex trading will rip you a new one with all of the headfakes and sudden reversals.

paper_2-15pmpig.jpg

Gold and silver continue rangebound but appear to be ready to test their lower ends again. The Cartel seems content to press gold lower under the downsloping trendline I've drawn on the chart. Having failed to break above the trendline today, do not be surprised if gold retests the 1705-15 level very soon. Silver found buyers again above $33. Something tells me that if The Pig continues higher and gold continues lower, we'll soon get another opportunity to see if $33 can hold.

paper_2-15pmgold.jpgpaper_2-15pmsilv.jpg

And here's a bonus chart for you. AAPL put a nasty looking Outside Reversal Day on its chart today. You can be certain that the momentum-chasing WOPRs will notice this tomorrow and AAPL will likely continue lower for a while. Remember that AAPL is about 25% of the overall NASDAQ, so, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. If stocks are headed lower while The Pig heads higher, you can imagine what will be happening to the PMs. Just sayin.

paper_aapl_0.jpg

Lastly, I have some number for you to ponder and then please post your thoughts in the comments. For the CoT reporting week of 2/7 - 2/14, we saw the following:

Gold:       Down $30                              Silver:         Down $0.81

                  April OI down 7,647                                   March OI down 9,208 while May OI up 7,549

                  Total OI down 4,897                                   Total OI down 1,136

Over the course of the reporting week, do you think that OI and price fell because specs were selling and closing contracts? Did OI fall because the specs sat tight while The Cartels sold more longs than covered shorts, driving price lower? Is there some other combination you can think of? We'll have some answers on Friday.

That's all for now. Have a great evening.  TF

121 Comments

¤'s picture

First bitchez'

Ha! 

JY896's picture

I used to never go for First!

...until seeing Pining's details on what happens, exactly.

So I will be the first to thank Turd for his ongoing efforts. Looking forward to the further development -- but you've already come a long way.

EDIT: And of course, even NOW I get punked by DPH... ;-)

¤'s picture

BTW...

Thanks big, yellow-hatted dude for all of your work. 

The new format promises to be interesting and I'm looking forward to it.

CA Lawyer...Thanks for the shout out at The Daily DPHaze. You have my appreciation as well for what you've brought and keep on bringing to the community. yes

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3172/daily-dphaze-news-machine

¤'s picture

JY896

Sorry for stealing your thunder. I've been first twice I think and maybe said Bitchez' twice also.

I'm good for another year and will go back to my usual "last post" infamy until then. 

Las Vegas Dave's picture

If you start charging for content

do you really think people are gonna be happy about having to scroll through all the music videos posted by juevenile hipsters like purple haze?

Thanks for all your info and effort Turd but I hope you rethink this one

exiledbear's picture

I remember advising one of my friends about AAPL in '03

I said that it looked like it made a higher low, and higher highs + higher lows = well you know. I didn't want to short it. Should've bought some.

Anyway, I've been looking for AAPL to turn, but I tend to be early on these things. Maybe AAPL's finally starting to rot? It wouldn't surprise me.

I remember that era. GOOG was higher than gold, and everyone was looking at me weird for being in gold and not GOOG. Didn't get much respect back then. Call me Rodney Dangerfield.

Well you numbskulls, who's laughing now? GOOG is 600 and gold is 1700. Revenge is sweet, even if I can't taunt those people anymore :P

bernard's picture

1st uptick in silver lease rates

The cartel surely is blowing their load... anyone who can't see that is blind here. They desperately need to keep it capped at $34. Will they be able to? Only time will tell. 

garrylindsay's picture

AAPL vs Silver and Gold

PM's have been trounced compared to AAPL. Best thing was to buy Apple for the olast 5 years and then use the winnings to buy PM's!

Read it and weep! The saddest part is the idiot that sold me my car 6 months ago told me they were  all in Google and Apple etc... and that I was a nut for being into PM's. Despite my economic knowledge, as of now I have been financially trounced by the sheep! So sad! At least this type of Nasdaq investing sheep is enjoying him/herself for the last 3 years. I just hope by the time PM's start winning, my neighborhood does not look like Athens or Beirut!

I guess I am just sick of being laughed at by my Apple/Google investing family and friends

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1329353090185&chddm=498525&cmpto=NYSEARCA:GLD;NYSEARCA:SLV;NASDAQ:AAPL&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=NYSEARCA:GLD,NYSEARCA:SLV,NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0

donnojackshit's picture

The Power of GSR reposted!

Reposted as I'm on the other side of the planet and 18 hours outa whack with the bulk of the Turdites.

Fellow Turdites

I usually just read the many great posts here, for which I am truly grateful to The Turd for allowing us this forum and the many great contributors here.

So I thought I would share my strategy to make my stack grow and have it pay me dividends, even if crooked lap dogs like Buffet deliberately mislead the sheeple with "Gold is a lousy investment that doesn't pay dividends".

Working in easy to follow round numbers, let us assume you currently have 10 x 1 oz bars of Gold and 100 x 1 oz silver Eagles as your accumulated stash. 

1. So at GSR = 50, (NOW at the moment), you trade your 10 oz's Gold for 500 oz's Silver.

(If you don't have a stash yet, buy some silver now to start working the GSR.)

2. Major GSR move #1. (within the next 12 months but maybe sooner).

Say in 1 month, 6 months or 1 year from now, the GSR tumbles to 25.

Then take the entire 500 oz's Silver and trade for 20 oz's Gold.

You have now doubled your physical stash. You now have 20 oz's Gold and 100 oz's Silver in your stash, and the ability to continue capitalizing whether the GSR continues down or goes back up.

If the GSR continues South, then you still have part of your stash to deploy. Say,
         
          GSR = 20, then swop 20 ASE's for 1 AGE
         GSR = 10, then swop 20 ASE's for 2 AGE's
          GSR = 5, then swop 20 ASE's for 4 AGE's
          GSR = 2, then swop 20 ASE's for 10 AGE's
          GSR = 1, then swop 20 ASE's for 20AGE's

If at any of these GSR's, eg say at 10, the GSR then starts to climb back to 50 and beyond, then instead of just doubling your money you can multiply it by 5 times for just that one swop and so on.

The numbers get mouth watering crazy, particularly if you get a chance for 3 or 4 major GSR moves from when you started.

2.  Major GSR move #2. (another 6 to 12 months, say in 2013)

So, If the GSR (from 25) now heads back to 50, swop 10 oz's Gold for 500 oz's Silver,

You now have your original 100 ASE's + 10 oz's Gold + (500 ASE's + 10 oz's Gold).

     If the GSR then continues to 55, swop 1 oz gold for 55 oz's silver
     If the GSR then continues to 60, swop 1 oz gold for 60 oz's silver
     If the GSR then continues to 65, swop 1 oz gold for 65 oz's silver
     If the GSR then continues to 70, swop 1 oz gold for 70 oz's silver
                                                             

You can continue all the way past a GSR of 100 plus with this method and this is all bonus silver ounces (55 + 60 + 65 + 70 ........+100)
     

In this way, you can easily double your stash, quite possibly on a yearly basis, but even more if the GSR moves past the ranges of 25 to 50.

You now have your dividend stream, so suck shit Buffet!

You will lose anywhere from GSR 2.7 plus on your swops, but this is a small price to pay.

I don't know how many more times this GSR opportunity will arise, but the beauty about this method is you ALWAYS HAVE PHYSICAL and a good spread on both gold and silver to hedge your bets on future price possibilities, depending on whether you believe gold or silver may be the answer.

You are not gambling, have no counterparty risk and are not predicting the future, but reacting with a plan as events unfold.

You are not concerned about price unless you need to cash a few onces in to survive (gold on the high GSR, silver on the low).

You can turn a humble small stack into something truly amazing!

Over the last 30 years, thanks to the CRIMEX, the GSR has a major move (I define a major move of at least 30 points GSR) at least once a year and we could see more majors/year?

The range is typically between 30 and 60, but has been down to 25 and up to 100. 

With increasing volitility and upheavals in the world, these outliers should all be left in the dust in the next 5 years. (GSR>100 and 1:1 Ag to Au would be amazing to behold!

You could do this on allocated bullion too so as to minimise the transportation issues, but at this point in the game, I don't trust any bullion or trading operation with my physical.

Develop your own plan, with your own numbers and as I say to all the criminal bankers, polititians and crooked centrist scumbags,

"Fuck the Fucking Fuckers!"

johnboatcat's picture

It looks like with the low comment

counts on some of your posts today that this new format is not working well.  With no announcement of new posts on the old post people are just staying on the old post  and commenting.  By the time they check for a new post there are two or three new ones.  Need to announce the new post so general posters will move on and topic posters can keep the conversation going.

wonderer's picture

Hmm, would you advise an

to donnojacksheet, if you get my drift?

Hmm, would you advise an elderly widow to risk her paltry savings to try this?

Inquiring minds and all that...

donnojackshit's picture

GSR follow up question received.

I thought I'd post a question I received.

"I am mightily intrigued by your strategy. As the LCS are not that eager to do trades, especially for significant quantities of metal, what do you recommend as an alternative institution to make these trades? Also, is there a standard premium or "fee" I should expect that would be considered fair?

Thank you in advance for your time,"

Hi there 

I am not from the USA, so we don't have the number of LCS's you guys do, but my example was based on a smaller amount of precious metals.

The way to perhaps do larger swops is on multiple smaller tranches either with the same dealer or different dealers or work it every day.

The LCS's in our joint always seem happy to do the swops, because they get a buy and a sale cut. The trick is to develop relationships before you need to do the trade, and also negotiate the swop commission to where it is worth their while but also yours.

In the future, a particular swop may become challenging due to say a retail shortage of a particular metal, so I am always "working it" by reading this blog and visiting my preferred LCS's.

The trick I think is have well defined tranches that are a unit size that are portable by yourself only. (500 oz's Ag = 15.5Kg, so 1000 oz's Ag is my maximum tranche size, as I can just carry this in a "topper" leather carry bag whilst making it appear not so heavy.

I am only recommending physical swops, but depending on your comfort level, you could trade the swops using perhaps Sprotts or Bullion Vault or Perth Mint or whoever you have researched thoroughly and trust that your bullion is not hypothecated anf fully allocated and there!

The commissions on these my run you up to 15% (Never done it so check) but you still can make a shit load of money.

I have a range of LCS's in my country who accept 3% as the total transaction cost. 2.7% is an amount reported by an old turdite margartine here about 6 months ago.

Another "curve ball", you can do the swops with a combination of the other precious metals like platinum and rhodium too, however I believe silver is going to provide the biggest bang for my buck in the future.

Hope this helps?

Smiddywesson's picture

Turd

Never mind, I don't have an opinion.

Be Prepared's picture

Amazing Day and Phenomenal Effort....

Turd...

You were an obviously a very busy man today and I'm glad that you were willing to try a different way of presenting a lot of information.  I am hopeful that the character of this site won't change too much with the launch of the "Pay" curtain, but I respect that you must do what you think is in your best interests.  Great Job!

Big L's picture

I like the new format

Big L

MisesFan's picture

I dig

the new format.  Keep doing what YOU want to do.

tmosley's picture

Turd, I think you might

Turd,

I think you might consider a newsletter for a fee rather than limiting online content.  Further, more money can be made from conferences and the like.

People tend to want to have something physical for their money, or to have an experience.  Check into the model of trade conferences.  Those things clean up like crazy.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thanks for the input but...

MODERATOR

...if you don't like the regulars and/or the somewhat irreverent way we do things here, I suggest that you find another site.
The videos, photos and cartoons aren't going anywhere.

¤'s picture

I'm glad to see some things never change...

....like LVD still being a DB.

kingboo's picture

The question isnt whether Apple outperformed Gold...

the question is....which asset provides a good store of wealth in uncertain times. A quick look at the charts in 08 gives you a peak into the future....

bad67's picture

First post, my liege

I live at 58701, and I have your getaway car (think Thin Lizzy "Jailbreak").  You and Yours are awesome.  Thanx to all who have schooled me and helped me to feel sane when I was just dizzy swirling in a sea of stupidity.

I love the new format and hope I can afford the rent.

Justin's picture

Subscription?

I know opinions are like assholes, especially from someone who doesn't visit here as often as I used too, but if money is an issue I'd like to vote for a return to Blogger.  Things were much simpler there and to the point, mainly because it was more focused on what you had to say and the trends you wanted to share in regards to the metals while distributing information for free. I'm not a cheapskate, I just personally don't believe in paying for information(though I do make sure to click on ads for you when I do visit). 

I remember when you first started up Along The Watchtower and told people you would shut it down if they continued to post in the comments about conspiracy theories, politics and a number of other things that you didn't like because they were a distraction from the metals.  Ever since the switch here that's pretty much all the comments are now along with being spammed with news articles that we can find on our own, links to threads that we could also find on our own in the forums for those who care to view the forums, music videos, copy and pasted lyrics and a number of things that weren't as rampant on Blogger as they are here.   I can't say that I haven't been guilty of the same occasionally in the past when I was a regular poster here, but being bombarded with that stuff constantly by the same people only adds to others following suit and is a turn-off for a lot of people, especially those who are first time viewers of your site as has been told to me by people I send links to. One look at the comments and they even question my reliability for recommending that they follow you based on what they see in the comments. Whether you want to admit it or not, that is a direct reflection on you and your site. 

Sad to say, but the free Blogger account was better quality than this site has become because 90% of the content there submitted by yourself and others was metals related.  The majority of people read what you have to say because they are interested in your views on chart reading and could care less about the other noise which is made blatantly obvious every time you hold a contest and lurkers come out of the shadows in droves to participate. Then they crawl back into their holes and return to just reading your posts while staying out of the comments because they are generally here for one reason and one reason only: your uncanny ability to forecast movements while not selling out and charging for information just as many other authors have done.  Not trying to diss you, just sharing my point of view when it comes to someone who doesn't ever pay for subscriptions/information.  If all the worthy content is for paying members only then there are zero reasons for non-subscribers to visit Turdville.  Just my .02 cents.

artaud23's picture

SWAP, GSR, and Premiums.

I just concluded a fairly large and successful PM swap with Provident Metals and, other than postage, found the process to be relatively painless. Also I have done trades at my LCS. Just for comparison, before I decided to go with Provident for the trade, I asked the LCS what they would pay for generic silver one ounce bars (I had a bunch) and was told 7% below spot. Provident paid OVER spot and I was able to get both Volume and Cash discounts on the ASE's I swapped for. Their buy prices on gold coins were also at spot or very close to it. It was scary at first, but now that the deal is done, I see it as a nice way to upgrade and play the GSR as well.

¤'s picture

bad67

Welcome to Turdville!

Is that you smoking 'em up?

Turdle GG's picture

Keep up the good work Turd

Turd,

please do whatever you think is right for this site.  You've done well so far, so I'm sure your judgment will continue to be good.  Thanks for everything.

bad67's picture

Dear DPH

Ya, that's me in the white helmet with the huge grin.  I've had that car since I was 16 in 1978 (you do the math).  I live just a few miles from the facility that Turd fears of his incarceration.  I'll drive, you  bring the Heineken, and we'll probably have to gag the turd to keep him quiet.  Thanks, man.

NW VIEW's picture

The Dollar

Trying to grab hold of 80.  Tomorrow may be exciting.

Be Prepared's picture

@bad67 - Welcome

Glad you have come the merry O' Land of Turdville!

rtabit's picture

Re: Subscription?

Personally, I don’t comment because I don’t have the knowledge others on this site have, hopefully that will change in time, so I guess I'm a lurker.  I’m new here, about six weeks, so I don’t know how things used to be, but I find if I’m looking for more technical discussions about metals I tend to gravitate towards the forum.  I like the comments on this site, to me it’s what sets it apart from the others I’ve visited, the intelligent user base.  I also don't mind the videos and cartoons, can't be all work and play all the time.  Most of the articles posted here are revenant to the conversation, offering confirming or different point of view, I like it, personally it accelerates the learning process for me.  I guess if your a seasoned veteran you may not need it, and may already know about all the other sources of information out there, but that's not the case for me.  Also, if there are certain users who comments you don’t want to view, just click the ignore button for that user, I assume you wouldn't see their comments anymore.

LaMachinna's picture

@bad67

Welcome to the grand ol' land of turds!  Come on in, relax and have a good time.

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