A Warning Flag For Silver

Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 2:03 pm

As you know, I'm very excited about the prospects for the fiat-conversion price of silver this year. It's going to a big year, perhaps even historic. That does not mean, however, that silver will move in a straight line up. I still believe the The Evil Empire intends to dramatically lessen, if not eliminate, their long-time manipulative short position. However, a careful review of the situation at ground level leads me to think that we're not out of the woods yet.

As you know, silver has already had a big 2012. Silver closed on 12/30/11 at $27.92/ounce. It closed yesterday at $33.60. In just six weeks, this means silver is already UP over 20%. Spectacular! At this rate, silver would be $40 by April 1st, $57 by mid-summer, $83 by fall and $120 by year end. Now, of course, the prospect of $120 silver makes you and I very excited. Jamie, Blythe and Ruprecht...not so much.

So, what's The Empire to do? Last spring, it became clear to them that manipulating silver was no longer a game they should be playing. Global quantitative easing and soaring physical demand stacks the deck against them and they want out. Of course, this is much easier said than done. Last year at this time, the total bank short position was around 90,000 contracts. In a market the size of silver, you don't simply flip the switch and cover a position like that in a matter of weeks. To do so would be foolish and incredibly expensive. No, care had to be taken to eliminate the position with as little loss as possible.

At first, The EE went headlong into covering and this sent silver soaring. In the last week of April, as silver was trading up every single day, The Forces of Darkness covered nearly 10% of their total short position while simultaneously adding about 2000 longs. They were panicking and price was skyrocketing. Clearly, this strategy wasn't working and, instead, on April 30th, The EE switched course and forced the first of two, incredible 35% prices smashes. Covering into weakness instead of strength allowed The Empire to reduce their total short position to just 55,000 by year end. They were also able to raise their total long position to 41,000, up from 34,000 in April, thereby bringing their net short ratio all the way down to 1.3:1, down from its high of nearly 3:1 during the panic in April. All the while, price had fallen from $48 to $28. Absolutely spectacular and worthy of a round of applause, a pat on the back and huge year-end bonuses for The Wicked Witch and her Monkeys.

On 1/1/12, everything looked great for The EE but, suddenly, a change took place. Silver, instead of continuing to languish, exploded on two fundamental positives. First, the announcement of a $350M purchase by PSLV. Hot on the heels of that was The Fed pronouncement that QE would, in fact, continue on to infinity and it was this Fed development that spooked the EE the most.

We know via CoT data that, as of 1/24/12, the total bank long position was 35,283, up just 1,000 contracts in 2012. The total bank short position was 60,304, up nearly 10% in 2012, a moved designed to keep things in check a while longer. On the evening of Tuesday 1/24, silver was priced at $31.98, already up 14.5% on the year.

The next day, The Bernank dropped the bomb. Continued ZIRP and 0% Fed Funds ensured negative real rates until at least 2014 and, as we all know, negative real rates are fundamentally positive for the PMs.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it

Prices jumped. On Wednesday the 25th, gold rallied $36 to $1703 and silver added $1.14 to $33.12. In the 12 trading days since, though, gold has only managed to add $22 and silver has tacked on just $0.48. What's the deal? Conveniently, and certainly not intentionally, the Fed's announcement came on a Wednesday, the first day of a new CoT survey week. What's great about this is that we're able to see a direct cause-and-effect in the numbers. Please bear with me and check out the raw data:

Spec Long EE Long EE Short EE Net Ratio:

1/24/11 27,051 35,283 60,304 1.7:1

1/31/11 28,465 (+5.23%) 33,693 (-4.51%) 62,422 (+3.51%) 1.85:1

2/7/11 32,239 (+13.3%) 31,795 (-5.63%) 66,445 (+6.44%) 2.09:1

So, in the two weeks immediately following Uncle Ben's announcements, the total Spec Long position has risen by 19.18% while the total EE Long position has fallen by 9.88%. The total EE Short position has also risen by 10.18%. Hmmmm. Does this explain for you how silver has been kept under $34?

In the end, what does this mean? Though I firmly believe that The Forces of Darkness have every intention of effectively exiting the silver market in 2012, they are intent upon not allowing a repeat of spring 2011. To that end, they're keeping prices in check here, hoping to draw in some new longs that they can exploit to the downside. Was the CME margin drop this week one of the tools they intend to use to accomplish this? Maybe, but whatever it is, it's working. A 13% rise in spec longs in just two weeks is significant and you can bet that soon the EE will attempt to force that money back out.

What will be our clue that this next smashdown is near? Perhaps the answer can be found in silver lease rates. As you all know, we correctly "put the pieces together" and foresaw the gold smashdown in December that was preceded by a steep drop in gold lease rates. Could silver lease rates present the same clues? It would seem so. Take a look at these two charts:

As you know, in the last 4 months of 2011, silver was raided twice. Note that in the days before each raid, 1-month silver lease rates declined below -0.40%. Rates reached a bottom on 9/12/11 and silver fell sharply just a week later. Rates bottomed on 12/6/11 and, once again, silver was raided within a few days. After turning positive in early January, silver lease rates have again turned and the 1-month rate this morning is -0.30%.

It is very important to note that -0.30% does not seem to be a low enough rate to give a 100% certain sell signal...but it's close...and we must diligently watch the daily changes to this rate in the days ahead.

A drop of another 10 basis points would cause me to exit any long positions I have and I would probably even buy some puts. A drop of 10 basis points from here should cause anyone not trading to at least consider establishing some short-term, hedge positions. A move to -0.40% or lower should excite the stackers and give them time to cobble together more fiat to take advantage of the "sale" that would seemingly be near.

How far could silver fall? Take a look at the chart below and decide for yourself. $31 would be likely. $28 is a possibility but, with a little luck, we could even see $26 again.

Notice that I used the term "with a little luck". IF we were to see sub-$28 silver again, I would consider it to be one of the greatest trading opportunities of all time. I'm not sure it can get there, though. Even if every single new spec long was panicked back out, I don't think that would generate enough selling pressure to jam silver that far down. The EE would definitely need a huge increase in the spec short position and it's hard to see that happening. Maybe...but it would be tough. It's likely that the only way we'd see $26 again would be a panic, one-day spike down like we saw in September and December.

One word here about gold and gold lease rates. The one-month rate in gold, while negative, is not even close to the levels to which it fell in September and December. We'll watch it, of course, but a sustained raid in gold does not appear imminent.

So, let's sum up:

I firmly believe that The EE wants to be net neutral in silver by the end of 2012.
The EE must accomplish this in stages, however, as they do not want a repeat of April 2011.
Silver was moving too far, too fast in January and the EE has decided to corral it.
Spec longs are up over 13% in the past two weeks while the EE has gotten significantly more negative.
Silver is stable here and may still drift higher but a further drop in one-month lease rates may foretell a renewed attempt by The Forces of Darkness to smash prices lower.
Another, coordinated silver raid could temporarily drive prices back under $30.
$30 silver should be bought hand-over-fist.

I, your humble servant, will continue to closely monitor these developments.

You, the loyal Turdite, must continue to monitor this site and prepare accordingly.

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Comments

First

Submitted by Sandiaman on February 11, 2012 - 2:06pm.

First Turdite

ZSL LOADED UP AND READY TO GO

Submitted by kirbyman1 on February 11, 2012 - 2:11pm.

I've already got my ZSL ready to go for this one.

Another Saturday Surprise

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 11, 2012 - 2:11pm.

I'm really digging these Saturday posts TF. Thanks.

There are so many variables involved right now that a big news event from almost any place could tip the apple cart one way or another.

I am confused

Submitted by silvergoldsilver on February 11, 2012 - 2:16pm.

To me it looks as if they are selling longs, and ADDING more shorts. They are not trying to eliminate their short position. They will never try to eliminate it all. We are in a death paper trap hoping for world global world currency metldown. If not, they will continuously short paper they grab from thin air. Endless pit.

Sorry to be johnney rain cloud.

Margins

Submitted by bvwalker1 on February 11, 2012 - 2:17pm.

Maybe the margins were lowered to help the shorts. I mean, they have to be underwater pretty good and this frees up some money for them.

Thank you Turd and let's not forget...

Submitted by ClinkinKY on February 11, 2012 - 2:20pm.

...that the May 1, 2011 "hit" on silver occurred (coincidentally, I'm sure) at the same time that the news of Osama Bin Laden's demise was announced. Kinda' like the "Friday night document dumps" regarding the DOJ emails about "Fast and Furious".

I so enjoy reading these...

Submitted by achmachat on February 11, 2012 - 2:23pm.

I so enjoy reading these... it's like having my own private seminar!

any turdites from New Zealand here? Would you recommend anyone to procure a summer home there? Which areas would be best (rural setting); and how high are property taxes?

Great post, Turd!

Submitted by Ircsum on February 11, 2012 - 2:25pm.

Many thanks for your analysis and conclusions. I have some spare fiat waiting in the wings & I'll be happy to use it in any slapdown.

According to Brother John and

Submitted by SimplyEconomics on February 11, 2012 - 2:27pm.

According to Brother John and his AMAZING silver lease breakdown. SILVER is going to go UP from here to $52.

Setting sail

Submitted by margaritatime on February 11, 2012 - 2:28pm.

I want to touch on a few things here before I cast a sail.

To those of you still around that shared immensely your knowledge and points of view in this community, I just want to say thank to you. I consider y’all peers in the truest of forms. To those of you that have set sail, for whatever the reason – and I know somehow you are probably reading this I wish you all the best.

As for the choppy seas that lie ahead. I will dispense a little advice. Tech analysis (TA) and pretty 30, 60 and 90mda charts are only going to get you so far. You will likely find you are going to have to use these as small tools but rely more on your given instincts. Encase you haven’t noticed economics is known as the 'dismal science' by which we can simply sum up to a social science. In facto it is the prediction of what human beings will do next. Macroeconomics by its given word is a much broader paradigm, taking in to account things with greater gravity. In laymen terms, the structure of the entire economy – which I can assure you, from my view, is sending a clear signal.

The tipping point has come to our doorstep, where influential powers will test that resolve. The only standing gun remaining has been individual thought, choice, and freedom. The opposite of which is control, persuasion, and censorship. It does not matter how small or insignificant these ideas are, they all eventually lead to the same place. Always remember that.

Wiki: Censorship is the suppression of speech or other public communication which may be considered objectionable, harmful, sensitive, or inconvenient to the general body of people as determined by a government, media outlet, or other controlling body.

I may post from time to time, but for the most part I am done here. Great informational blog, but I have indifferences to the underlying sheriff. In the shadow of the other great minds, it is best said, “ With canned bacon, we are all better than that”. Bottom line is that perhaps things could have been handled better – nuff said. To ECW, TomL, Shill, Ginger, Eric, HardRain, Tesla, BoP, Atlee, Joe, DPH, Swift Boat, LaMacinna, Murph, GoodDoc, ExhiledB, Stoneeh, et al and the many, many others that I have gotten to know or admired in this community – thanks, I will see you on the high seas.

Often times it is not the action that drives social [economic] behavior, it is the reaction. Watch for those signs, individual thought is the single most powerful tool all of you have.

Good luck everyone!

Catching Up Again ..

Submitted by ReachWest on February 11, 2012 - 2:30pm.

Just back from 10 plus days in the sun, surf and sand - have not looked at Turdville since departing at the end of January, so there's a lot to catch up on.

Frankly, I didn't pay too much attention to any of the markets - (checked the stack and it is the same weight as when I left - whew). If Silver were to drop back to the sub $30 level - I would certainly be exchanging lots of fiat for additional quantities of real money. In the meantime, the steady accumulation game in our household continues, unabated.

I am going to Palm Springs to

Submitted by bestever on February 11, 2012 - 2:33pm.

I am going to Palm Springs to hear Bill Murphy / John Embry's and a ton of mining execs talk the talk... anyone have any questions I can pose from Turdville? My main one will be: what comes after the end of futures pricing mechanism?

hmmm

Submitted by tpbeta on February 11, 2012 - 2:41pm.

certainly hope you're right

ready

Submitted by peettie01 on February 11, 2012 - 2:44pm.

ready to buy more and more.

Community Turnover

Submitted by Moderator Jane on February 11, 2012 - 3:22pm.

MODERATOR

"Bottom line is that perhaps things could have been handled better – nuff said."

I'm not saying the moderators have not made some mistakes, but I think it's fair to say that most of the moderators would agree with me that the BURDEN of handling things better falls on the people who regularly insulted other users, flamed the moderators, and generally acted like they owned the place. The community guidelines are there for all to see, and they were violated many, many times. When the moderators try to do their job, we have been made wrong, and the perpetrators have made themselves into victims.

We are well aware that some of these same angry folks have then spread vicious, unfounded rumors to others on this site in an effort to get people to "defect" out of their own bitterness. I hope that others who might be on the receiving end of this poison will take it with a grain of salt and realize that these guys just like to make trouble for whatever the reason.

The fact that we've had a terrific influx of new users and lurkers who have finally felt safe enough to share their thoughts on main street in 2012 is proof to all that the moderators' efforts have been successful in creating a better environment in Turdland. I have gotten many messages from folks who have been extremely grateful that the gang atmosphere has no longer dominated. People were actually withholding donations from Turd because of these guys.

In particular, I'd like to thank DPH and Eric O for going WAY out of their way to welcome new members and make them feel at home. It's those two that more people on this site should emulate, not the disgruntled meanies who bullied anyone they didn't feel were fit to play on "their" playground.

I hope we can finally move on from the drama and get on with building a more positive community.

Thanks turd this is a great site to learn

Submitted by Beentheredonethat on February 11, 2012 - 3:35pm.

I was at the YMCA this week,run across a member that is a real Doctor he was a Dentist he's retired now and probably in his seventys. Told me that he's been buying Gold sence it was at 160 dollars I told him that was really good you should have a lot by now. He said that he did. I asked him where he kept it he told me not at home he pays to have it stored and that he's got Gold certificates. I told him he needs to cash in about 5 of those certificates and see if he gets back 5 ounces of Gold or just money he said he would do that. I bet he doesn't get Gold back. Just wonder what others think. I am a newbie here I agree with most everything I read. Don't have much to add read and learn.

Margaritaville

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 11, 2012 - 3:41pm.

Bon voyage' sounds appropriate but also probably not enough. Smooth sailing ahead sounds better and that's what I hope lies ahead for you.

Everything has an evolution, including our own awareness of where we are at the moment in our own evolution as a person and within a community such as this.

Thanks for everything you've shared with us.

Hope to see you back one day in the future.

@Beentheredonethat

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 11, 2012 - 3:42pm.

Welcome aboard!

New Zealand Turdite

Submitted by knavechild on February 11, 2012 - 3:45pm.

Achamachat,

New Zealand Turdite right here. Moved my family out here from Southern California on February 1st. Summers are beautiful out here...we've spent the past week on a 7 acre resort/homestead with a river, ponds, ducks, chickens, etc. We spend each morning eating breakfast outside on the veranda while the cicadas buzz in the banana trees and read TFMetalsReport and other precious metals news on the iPad. Property taxes are generally pretty low...about $1000-2000 per year on average.

-Knavechild

I will ensure to take more

Submitted by I Love Beer on February 11, 2012 - 3:49pm.

I will ensure to take more and more Phys off the market.

Weekly Silver Chart

Submitted by The Green Manalishi on February 11, 2012 - 3:52pm.

Anyone else notice the double doji's on the Weekly Silver Chart.

geez if you can piss the moderaters off here

Submitted by boatman on February 11, 2012 - 3:53pm.

then u need to go.

this is TF's house......its not yours.

the personal insulters, anarchists, and the 'EVERYTHING thats wrong with the world is the US's fault'

can hike it,far as i'm concerned.

this is not directed at anyone in particular.

Ba Bye!

Submitted by Big L on February 11, 2012 - 3:54pm.

"Don't go away MAD, just go away". Motley Crue

It is SO tempting to make a big exit.

Nuff said!

Big L

margaritatime

Submitted by Bay of Pigs on February 11, 2012 - 4:04pm.

Good to see you again. Thanks for the shout out...and for your valuable contributions to this board.

Peace and Aloha...

Greetings

Submitted by harlan07 on February 11, 2012 - 4:09pm.

Just discovered this site a week or two ago, and I must say - wow! What a great resource to learn about the PM markets. I am brand new to precious metals accumulation, so I am grateful for the information available here.When the crisis unfolded in 2008, I heard people talk about hyperinflation and how PMs would be safe havens as the world lost confidence in currencies, but I was in denial because none of the collapse scenarios had happened (yet).

After many years of denial, I recently woke up to the truth about what is going on with fiat currencies. I started to read about QE 1 and 2 and how we are being robbed by devalued currency and inflation and I wonder why didn't see the house of cards before now!!

I guess I'm about 10 years late to PMs, but better late than never I guess. Right now I am just trying to accumulate alittle at a time whenever the price really tanks. Thanks to this site, I have some idea as to when a bottom might be in.

This site has helped open my eyes to the manipulation that occurs, it makes me angry but atleast it's an opportunity to accumulate while prices are still "cheap".

Still don't see anything unusual in the gold or silver COT

Submitted by Titus Andronicus on February 11, 2012 - 4:09pm.

Over the period of the last COT, both gold and silver rose a bit. Like Turd says, the usual thing is for the commercial net position to drop -- which it did. (Selling into strength.)

Having said that, the drop in the commercial net position in silver seems pretty heavy, considering the rather mild increase in price.

This is not necessarily bearish. It can mean that a lot of ammo is being used to cap the price.

Although in theory there is an infinite amount of money and silver shorts which can be used to cap the price, in practice this is not what happens. In practice, the commercials allow their net position to only get so low before short covering (buying into strength) like they did in August-September 2010 and April of 2011. (These periods are where the silver longs make a killing.) A huge effort was undertaken to bring the net position way up and reload the gun, so to speak. This effort seems to have been completed in December.

Since December the commercials started using the ammo. In a sense, it is good to see it "spent" so quickly.

(This is a comment about the "big picture", not a prediction of next week's silver price action! I don't have a firm conviction about what is going to happen next week.)

knavechild

Submitted by achmachat on February 11, 2012 - 4:09pm.

that is exactly what we'd be looking for. what "region" are you at?

We're in western Europe and winters are just depressing over here, just grey and wet and cold. That would make it summer over there in New Zealand, and a good time to get away a few months per year. And when/if things get too dicey in the northern hemisphere, there'd always be a safe-house...

those property taxes are "ok" compared to the US... but still, over here the property taxes are almost just a symbolic figure compared to those numbers.

Trade at Coin Club, Coin show, Gun show

Submitted by Nick Elway on February 11, 2012 - 4:22pm.

There is another way to trade between silver/gold/and FRN's Please visit your local coin clubs, coin shows , and gun shows. You may find like-minded people willing to trade.

Your mileage may vary, but I've found the transaction costs greatly reduced as compared to Local Coin Store or online stores.

Find a local coin club:

http://www.money.org/ana_custom/club_search/club_search.cfm

Finding a coin show or gun show is easy through google. In my limited experience the coin club is mostly silver (and some clubs are not worth a second visit), the coin show is pretty well mixed. I haven't tried the gun show but I hear more gold is traded there.

Fed Playing Favorites With Wall Street in Secretive Bond Deals

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 11, 2012 - 4:23pm.

Fed Playing Favorites With Wall Street in Secretive Bond Deals: Mortgages

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/127888#comment-127888

Silver: Commercial Signal Failure

Submitted by Zoltan on February 11, 2012 - 4:26pm.

I say the paper silver charade (SLV, futures, options, etc.) will fall apart before the gold scam does. Many have stated that there is NO physical silver of any size available. The morgue was given a reprieve until May of this year from requirements that should have taken effect from over a year ago.

At some point in time the real consumers of silver will panic and buy up whatever physical they can get their hands on. The CME will claim Force Majuer (sp?) and settle in fiat any "claims" on real silver and the price of the real thing will go ballistic. Kitco has until April under the terms of their bankruptcy agreement and then who knows.

When extend and pretend fails the truth will be laid bare. He who panics first will snap up any real physical that exists.

JMHO.

Thanks

Submitted by LOUP-GAROU on February 11, 2012 - 4:30pm.

Thanks Turd, I learn something new every time I get on this site! If you don't learn something new every day, your not living! thanks everyone! 28 silver? I'll take a load of that!

@ Zoltan

Submitted by Ircsum on February 11, 2012 - 4:35pm.

"He who panics first will snap up any real physical that exists."

That reminds me of a lovely line from the movie 'Margin Call' that went something like:

"If you're the first out the door it's not panic".

Not sure I agree

Submitted by Carthaginian on February 11, 2012 - 4:35pm.

Silver price was in check indeed, however most of the recent bear reads were targetting gold, Silver just followed...

If you recall last year, when there were bear raids, silver used to move on average 3x more than Gold (both on the upside and downside) it was a bit like a 3x leveraged ETF on Gold.

These days Silver is resisting, and as you pointed Turd, is more correlated to the DXY, which ultimately is correlated to the Euro.

Does the lease rate indicate a possible raid, yes it can. However, I would think Silver can trade up to the 35 area first and then get bombed back down to 33 on the March option expiry... Option expiries are were big bear reads happen.

In my humble opinion, the bear raids we noticed this year were weak. Silver has fallen a couple of times and always managed to get back to 33.50 pretty quickly.

Long story short, I think all this is positive for Silver and that the odds of a smackdown are muted. Watch out for the expiry though...

@harlnan 07

Submitted by napa698 on February 11, 2012 - 4:45pm.

Welcome to the site my friend

Harlan07

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 11, 2012 - 4:54pm.

Echoing napa698.....Welcome to Turdville!

Did you ever think it possible you would be called a Turdite one day and be proud of it?

Anyone notice how well the CME group's stock is doing lately?

Submitted by SilverLeaf on February 11, 2012 - 5:01pm.

It's rocketed up from ~$230ish to ~$291 within the last 2 weeks, and it's only about $20 from it's 1 year highs. The ascent looks steeper than the silver chart did last April. Wonder what the hell is going on? If Comex trading is dying, you'd think it would be reflected in the CME stock price.

Perceptions and Delusions

Submitted by punchbowl on February 11, 2012 - 5:03pm.

Once again, a highly valued member gets up from the large conference table and politely excuses themselves, with expressive eloquent reasoning, as they sail off. Defensive talk of viscious attacks, mutinies, and reverse victimization syndrome seem farfetched and lacking. But possibly I am the delusional one.

Btw i am going cautiously long with the internet abuzz with "imminent smackdown ala COT report" chatter.

Margarita

Submitted by onewileyz on February 11, 2012 - 5:05pm.

Pack your skis and head to Jackson Hole. Tons of snow, good people and you'll feel better! : )

Adios Margaritatime

Submitted by KC on February 11, 2012 - 5:17pm.

I'm not a frequent poster, but I just wanted to let you know that I was happy to see you posting again this week. Your contributions were always valuable and you brought some personality to the site. You will be missed. Take care, be well!

Harvey

Submitted by Honest_Money on February 11, 2012 - 5:29pm.

Turd, what do you make of this statement by Harvey Organ in his post today?

"The front options expiry month of February saw its OI mysteriously rise for the second straight day to 64 from 34 despite zero delivery notices again. Again this means that some entity needed silver badly and yet no physical silver could be found at the comex silver warehouses to supply these entities with the necessary metal."

Margarita

Submitted by Eric Original on February 11, 2012 - 5:45pm.

Wow, what a "180" you did there!

First you returned and said you were going to try to be around more. Then you asked, in passing, what happened to some former posters, and then you suddenly said goodbye and talked about censorship.

My guess is that somebody messaged you, and fed you a one sided sob story about people being persecuted off this blog by those horrible moderators.

I beg you to take a breath and reconsider. I was ecstatic to see you back.

margarita, I only came to

Submitted by redwood on February 11, 2012 - 6:04pm.

margarita,

I only came to know you more recently, but always enjoyed your posts. Please reconsider as this is a time when the people of this great nation really need to fortify their relationships, all of them. As you said the time is here. None of us really can afford to walk away. Again if you reconsider there will be many, including myself, with a smile on their face when you knock on the door.

Margaritatime --- Ditto Eric O

Submitted by Swift Boat Vet on February 11, 2012 - 6:05pm.

I was tickled to see you post again and begin talking GSR trades. BTW, I DID swap that gold for silver when the ratio was 52 to 1. He charged me 2 ounces of silver per gold ounce, so 50 to one was my straight trade. I am patient and know it will drop again.

I do hope you will reconsider as Eric also feels. You are a great asset here and added a bit of zest. I will miss you if you do remain away.

Swifty

@kirbyman

Submitted by crackor on February 11, 2012 - 6:05pm.

I am monitoring the 3yr weekly charts and check this out. If TA has any value here you might be on to something here.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=ZSL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t30999993782&r...

Big Welcome to All New Turdites!

Submitted by Be Prepared on February 11, 2012 - 6:09pm.

Change is a most challenging concept because the forces, information or experiences that push us to this new way of thinking is a difficult journey. I'm glad and heartened that many of you have made just such an awakening. It's a lonely road you walk because it will not be filled with a lot of confirmation and "good going" from your fellow neighbors and friends. That's, at least, one of the reasons you here.... to know that you are a part of a community that can see, at least, some of the things the way that you do and then feel comfortable sharing those insights to further your own understanding of what may come in the days, weeks and months ahead.

We each have a choice when we join any community..... a choice about the path of our contribution.... because without a meaningful contribution by all those in the community.... it ceases to have purpose and meaning. Our contributions need to be focused on building each other up and ferreting out the best information & perspective to digest to make sure that the steps we make are honest and realistic.

I hate when anyone leaves, but not one of us is more important than another.... even Turd, himself. I'm forever grateful for his courage and tenacity to set this community up and I am an avid supporter, but what has come into being has been an organic assemblance of some terrific people equally driven to make this place a real community and resource for those seeking the truth and wanting a way to understand how best to deal with those truths. The decision to be here or not...... post or lurk....is one made each and every day by each of us. I hope everyone knows that we want and encourage you all to make your thoughts and ideas part of the fabric of Turdville. Whether we always agree or agree to disagree is not as important as understanding that we all matter and we all are facing the same truths....and TPTB have little concern as to how much it will devastate us all. Thanks for listening to old Be Prep!..... :-)

v good points

Submitted by vamoose1 on February 11, 2012 - 6:21pm.

If the last two raids were preceded by lease rates doing this, then one has to pay attention. Irrespective of opinion.

Is somebody "there" at 34, it certainly seems that way. Did they materially increase their short side orientation, yes they did.

As pointed out above, if JPM planned to get flat, I am not sure that getting more short is consistent with that, unless its some sort of rolling process of two steps forward and one back. It looked to me that JPM was very much on the job at 34.

Looked at in isolation silver has a nice chart, a nicely symmetrical head and shoulders bottom with a neckline at 34 , calling a measured move of up 8 bucks to 42. Thats what the chart says. And its going to resolve one way or another rather soon.

PSLV1 was always strange , at the very least, the very rapid follow on move from 18 to 50, the very obvious delivery delays and shortfalls , revealed that there was a pronounced shortage of physical silver at the time of the issue.

It looks as though JPM perhaps just whiffed, the sponsor of PSLV1 was Canadian, the Prospectus slipped through on a hot late August day, perhaps nobody noticed, or cared, or assumed it would be a ten million dollar nothing, rather than a 580 million dollar physical blockbuster.

Some say JPM was on the verge of insolvency at 50, and having a dirty mind I would even wonder if they helped CREATE the exponential blowoff when it went vertical at 38, with a view to trapping a huge new pool of weak longs in the 40s. Who knows.

I wonder though if 34 provides enough "room" for a decent sized raid .... 28 would kind of be pocket change. I might step aside and let it run to say 38 before trying to put the hammer down. I guess we will soon know.

Or they may not control this market as they once did, perhaps its getting away due to shortages. . Its safe to say silver is tighter today than it was a year ago, We have had PSLV2 for another 380 million, , (with an open Prospectus for another billion two) the Royal Canadian Mint did what another 500 physical, coin sales have shot through domestic NA silver supply, this market appears tight as a snare drum. imho.

One big clue will be the delivery times and dates on the physical in PSLV2. Management has undertaken to announce when its completed, we are 3 weeks into the mission and no announcement. In a properly supplied silver market, it should take a week tops, or less, This bears watching, and it will show up on the PSLV website.

Unlike PSLV1 , PSLV2 was effectively telegraphed, they knew from the reopening of the Prospectus, it was coming , and probably soon as it in fact did, and would , based on the shock of PSLV1, have had a better idea of size, which was 350. PSLV3 could come tonite....its an open prospectus capped at a billion two. This is a lot of silver.

Curiously Eastman Kodak , part of the walking dead for years, was put out of its misery coincident with PSLV2, and they have a LOT of recycled silver in Rochester.And of course no sentient person would pay more than passing notice to the fact that Kodak's Receiver in Bankruptcy is JP Morgan. Not a chance.

Now the Frito Banditos confidently tell us the world still has 1 billion ounces of above ground silver, (a figure down 92 percent from 11 billion ounces in 1980, the last time silver traded at 50....in 1980 dollars.

We KNOW, since its THEIR number, that its no good, the truth lies somewhere between their fictional billion ounces, and ZERO. I am inclined to zero, one persons opinion. I think its literally hand to mouth , paper shenanigans, midnight warehouse runs and the like. I contend there is NO material silver on this mortal coil.

The world has 8500 hedge funds with 3 trillion under management. There are probably 50 thousand other capital pools worldwide, pensions, school boards, municipalities, you name it. .

Out of scores of thousands of worldwide capital pools , not to mention ubiquitous industrial users, someone is going to see this charade for the desperate shell game that it is, and its instantly over.

RE: margaritatime

Submitted by Bohemian on February 11, 2012 - 6:36pm.

"Often times it is not the action that drives social [economic] behavior, it is the reaction."

Every action is also a reaction, to something. There is no action, just out of the blue.

"Bottom line is that perhaps things could have been handled better –"

That's exactly the point. Why they were forced to handle things...? Someone, or something, forced them, right? Of course, one can always argue that things could be handled better, provided that -- if -- and then also -- ;-)

Good luck to you, too.

New members

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on February 11, 2012 - 6:59pm.

I just saw these names listed as new members....

breezely, harlan07, John4u, Serapis, ElPlatacocodrila
Welcome aboard to Turdville, one and all!

Tena Koe Knavechild

Submitted by sixdollarsilver on February 11, 2012 - 6:59pm.

Nau mai ki te Aotearoa!

I think you'll like it down here

@punchbowl - not delusional, just misinformed

Submitted by Moderator Jane on February 11, 2012 - 7:03pm.

MODERATOR

Punchbowl wrote: "Once again, a highly valued member gets up from the large conference table and politely excuses themselves, with expressive eloquent reasoning, as they sail off. Defensive talk of viscious attacks, mutinies, and reverse victimization syndrome seem farfetched and lacking. But possibly I am the delusional one. "

No, you are not delusional, you just don't know the whole story! The community has been mostly shielded from the worst of this drama because the moderators have done overtime in *removing* it from your view. You are also not privy to the stuff that goes on behind the scenes. It was everything I said above, and WORSE. For example, one of our most genuine, valued members got threatened by this group, not a physical threat, but a threat that they would attack him publicly and otherwise make his life miserable on the site.

Another one of the so-called "valued" posters, mentioned in the farewell note above, was a guy who got so crazy nuts with us, he actually threatened to HACK into the website because he couldn't tolerate a moderator removing a flame of his.

So when the site goes down, you can consider that one of these "victims" of the "evil moderators" might be behind it. I am not overblowing this by saying this. A few of these guys have been so over the top, we've tried to find a way to deal with them with great caution, knowing that some of them seem nuts enough to try to take the entire site down along with them.

This is the stuff that goes on behind the scenes, and nothing ticks me off more than someone making it out like the moderators are "censoring" people. You are welcome to express opposing views here. You are NOT welcome to threaten people.

Someone took me to task earlier for "bringing it up" again, but as long as people keep bringing it up, and making it out like the perps are the victims, I will endeavor to set the record straight. I have to, because I have to look at the timing of Margaritaville's farewell note. It comes soon after the site was attacked. I'm guessing that the people in question have been communicating with her. Well, I'm here to say, if you hear from these folks, they are probably lying to you and you shouldn't trust their agenda.

At first, I thought these guys were just resistant to any sort of authority. But at the point they won't let things go, and continue to cause problems on a site like this...while simultaneously spreading bizarre conspiracy theories getting people to question Turd's integrity, you have to wonder...are they doing this for fun? Or has someone put them up to it? Maybe they are purposefully out to take down PM communities. Now that sounds far-fetched to me. But the extent to which this group has poisoned the site, you have to wonder.