Getting Caught Up

After yesterday's nefarious activities, I had hoped to create a lengthy, comprehensive post for you this morning. The BLSBS has gotten in the way and, since things are moving so quickly, I figured I'd better just post what I have and worry about going into detail over the weekend.

Before we get started, thank you all for your patience in dealing with the nonsense of yesterday. The attacks continue today but Ron and Stephanie have battled through the night (seriously, I don't think that either of them slept) to get the site back up. Their efforts are greatly appreciated and, since their efforts aren't inexpensive, all of those who have donated to the "TFMR DoS Defense Fund" are greatly appreciated, as well. We don't know for certain who is behind these attacks but we have our suspicions. I, for one, would like to bring in the FBI and/or Interpol but, apparently they're a little busy. Maybe we can simply organize some type of TFMR Goon Squad to go have a "visit" with the perpetrator. wink

OK, first the BLSBS. All you really need to know can be found at ZeroHedge. (What else is new?) Go there to find the truth. Here is just one of the links:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-

Additionally, in the spirit of seeking the truth through the manipulation and the propaganda, you are really going to enjoy the next podcast. I recorded it yesterday and it is quite timely. It will be posted later this afternoon so please be sure to check back later or over the weekend.

Here are the only charts that matter. When reviewing them it is critical that you remember this:

I am diligently following the daily changes to open interest in the precious metals. In doing so, it has become quite clear that there is very little, regular trading left in the PMs. All we have are The Cartel and the EE alternately covering and adding shorts as well as some HFT WOPRs that swing back and forth depending upon which way the POSX is moving. This is a double-edged sword.

  • This makes movements in the PMs even more easy to predict than usual.
  • This also brings significantly greater volatility which can wipe you out fast if you're not careful.

Anyone attempting to trade (and I do not encourage it) must trade cautiously and use well-defined stops.

To that end, let's start with the POSX charts. It looks like The Pig has, in fact, found a short-term bottom this time. I thought it had double-bottomed at 79 earlier this week. Instead, it has formed a rounded bottom. Nevertheless, you can clearly see on the one-year daily chart that 79 functions well as a technical support level...at least for now. I still have a hunch, however, that Pigatha will soon head even lower, toward 78 and maybe even 77.

paper_2-3ampig4.jpgpaper_2-3ampigd.jpg

Next is gold. Unfortunately, the trend from last Wednesday's FOMC minutes is now broken. Oh well. It had to happen sometime. As you can clearly see, however, gold could fall quite a ways from here and still NOT violate its trend from 1/1/12. In the end, all is well. QE is going to infinity. BTFD.

paper_2-3amgoldd.jpgpaper_2-3amgoldw.jpg

Lastly, silver might actually be in a tradable position. Maybe. I still think that the real Battle Royale will be at 35-35.50. IF that's the case, then it may be possible to trade some March calls from 33.25-50 up to 35-35.50. Maybe. Again, trade at your own risk and be on guard for some nasty volatility, to the UPside and the downside.

paper_2-3amsilvd_0.jpgpaper_2-3amsilvw.jpg

OK, I'm going to stop there, cross my fingers and toes, and pray that when I hit "SAVE" that this post actually appears on "Main Street" and simply doesn't disappear into the ether. Thanks again to all who have donated in support of the Tech Team and security improvements. Be sure to check back later this afternoon or over the weekend for a great and timely podcast. Have a fun day!!  TF

152 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

Re-capped at $34

MODERATOR

In what should come as no surprise to anyone, today's FUBM was capped at 33.98.

large_2-3amsilv1_0.jpg

Dr G's picture

@austrian, I think you need

@austrian,

I think you need to own gold. I can't say how much, that is for each to determine, but with a current stack of 5200 it seems like you should own a fair amount.

As to how you should get it, however, is great fun and presents you with a wonderful buying opportunity. I would not purchase any gold with that 100k. I would buy silver, and then look to trade for gold when the GSR falls in line to benefit you. 

The more volatile metal is silver. The metals with the greatest % gains is silver. But you already know all that. Use those points to get you free oz and convert some to gold.

My 2 cents.

Dr G's picture

@Turd, capping there because

@Turd, capping there because that's such an important number or capping there because they want silver to be red for the week? Red for the week means the momentum is gone going into next week.

You be the judge.

ScottJ's picture

Interesting Times

That's all I have to say.

Power to the People

Power to the Truth

Change yourself to change the world...

ScottJ's picture

No need to focus on Eur/Usd or Currency Trades...

The new paradigm is commodities (gold & silver with higher betas ("risk")) against fiat/digital currency.

Stop focusing on what you cannot control and start focusing your energy on being productive.

Speak with negative thoughts and intention and watch negative things come into your life (even if they are delayed or disguised as "blessings" because of your own ego lying to your true inner self).

Speak with positivity and "pay it forward" mentality and link the world in interconnecting harmony...

Stand up for what you believe in, as long as it does not impose on others.

--

And to adults, stop focusing solely on your problems... the children that you created are stuck in this world of bullshit and are the ones holding the stress of the world on their shoulders. Always has been and always will be... Open your eyes...

Real eyes realize real lies...

-

Scott J

HeNateMe's picture

@ScottJ

Nice to see you man!

HeNateMe

Turd Ferguson's picture

Both, actually

MODERATOR

Recal that $34 was a hard cap Monday-Wednesday. Now that it's back below there, it is no surprise that the cap has been put back in place.

Last Friday's close was 33.79 so, yes, a close below there would paint a red candle onto the chart.

However, I expect a bullish silver CoT this afternoon so that should help lift price.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes

MODERATOR

Hello, Scott. Nice to see you.

Orange's picture

Could prove to be very significant

On the back of growing interest by small investors in India, Indian Commodity Exchange, which started operations in late 2009, is to soon introduce micro volumes of gold and silver contracts of up to 1 kilo each. The Exchange is a screen based on-line derivatives exchange for commodities. At the end of last year, it had recorded one of its highest volumes in physical delivery of bullion (gold and silver) on its platform.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=144730&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Smiddywesson's picture

Buy gold or silver? @Austrian12874

Now, I have a question for my fellow turdites....there is a good possibility that I will receiving 100 thousand dollars at the end of this month. I already own 5200 ounces of silver..should I buy 100k worth of more silver considering that premiums have increased 10% or should I diversify and buy gold instead. Thanks.

Wow, you are doing great!  I would put the money in gold.

The fundamentals for silver in terms of supply and demand are better than in gold, for reasons you no doubt know.  So why buy gold?

Central banks are buying gold, not silver.  They intend to be solvent when all is said and done.  That means they will have to drive up the price of gold to ridiculous levels to cover all the funny money that doesn't vaporize when the system goes belly up or merely switches to a gold referenced system.  This gives you a rapid increase in the value of your gold holdings and allows you to hold onto your silver for the long haul, because God's not making any more of it.  Silver will be THE investment of the century.  Gold for the quick win, silver for the long haul.

So why not buy just silver?  What if gold ramps and they are able to sit on silver prices?  How's that going to feel?  On the other hand, what if they confiscate gold and you are all in gold?  What if the world melts down and you need silver to trade, but gold is the one that has ramped in price? 

Having both sounds like a cop out, but this is a trade with all your wealth so it pays to play it safe and have both.  I'd buy the gold.

Swift Boat Vet's picture

Wandering in the Wilderness

All day yesterday!  I felt totally cut off from PM Civilization.  I thought all was lost until I checked the old site.  Just to confirm that the Great and All-Seeing Turd was still on the case eased the withdrawal pain.  

Turd,  you have created a unique base from which all PM investors, great and small, can venture out from into that vast internet sea of info with direct links etc provided by The Great Turd AND his loyal band of Turdites.  (I do prefer Turdlings tho')  It is the serious site that helps separate the 'wheat from the chaff' when it comes to understanding what is happening in today's monetary world. 

Swifty

ScottJ's picture

Silver to $200+ by end of 2012

Assuming gold reaches $3500-$4500 by the end of 2011 (fair estimate given the fiat fiasco on hand all over the world), and silver catches momentum as "the poor man's gold," alongside the physical squeeze as silver is used in innovation not just as money, thus making it more precious than gold (in my opinion at least)...

Then it would be reasonable to say that silver could easily reach a 15-25:1 ratio to gold.  This would give silver a range of [($233-$300) -- ($140-$180)] respectively.  The current silver to gold ratio is approximately 51.6:1.... historically lower than normal and obviously manipulated.  Look for a large move in the future when europe & the US both extend credit to banks and to governments, as that is their only plan (different forms of QE/easy monetary policy to create the "wealth effect" the public).

¤'s picture

ScottJ

Nice to see you :-)

fast mover's picture

@Bay of Pigs, trading the LBMA is up over $20k since Dec1

My blog covers this system in greater detail.

http://goldenlightswitch.blogspot.com/

I welcome any fellow Turdite who wants to make a little fiat to convert to physical.

FM

ScottJ's picture

Hello Turd & Turdites

Had a rough past 6 months, but what does not kill you only makes you stronger!

Looking forward to tackling the coming days with you again, but this time without the fear and negativity.  We are all here together, and that is better than a lot of previous civilizations had.  The power we have to discuss ideas and topics on the internet is truly evolutionary. Be proud to be living in these times and mold your "now" into a situation that will allow for you to tackle the future the best you can.  Every little thing counts.

Smiddywesson's picture

@Austrian

The big point is both silver and gold are great investments, but having both allows you to wait out unfavorable developments like confiscation or windfall profits taxes in one metal, and sell the other.  

RaRaRasputin's picture

Nice to see Turdtown back up again!

Hey Turd & Admin folks

Nice to see things are returning to normal once more after yesterdays *glitch*

From yesterdays Torygraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financevideo/yourmoneytheirhands/9057193/Gold-will-rise-against-heavily-debased-currencies.html#disqus_thread

Getting ready for 6' snow and -12 temps here over the w/end .... brrrr

RaRa

SRSrocco's picture

THE ANALYSIS CHARADE CONTINUES ON THE INTERNET

I have to say, are people who subscribe to analysts that dense or are they very forgiving.  Or is it that there is a constant stream of worthy slobs to drop their hard earned money on what I call THE SUBSCRIPTION MILL?

Rick Ackerman just came out with a new article today titled "ANOTHER CAMOUFLAGE TRADE, THIS TIME IN SILVER...".  In it he states the following:

Here’s what we advised (and keep in mind that although the jargon is technical, it is geared to the many hundreds of subscribers who have taken the Hidden Pivot Course): “March Silver appears to be building thrust for a shot at 35.535, the ‘D’ target of the pattern shown in the thumbnail mini-inset. The 34.235 midpoint resistance that would need to be surpassed first is above Tuesday’s spike high, so we’ll need to make our move below that level, camouflage-style, if we’re going to get aboard with a minimum of stress.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Now that Rick is telling his readers and subscribers that there is a JUICY TRADE to make money as silver goes to $35.53, I wonder if he is suffering from a month long bout with AMNESIA.  On Dec 30, 2011, Rick provided us with his wonderful 10 PREDICTIONS FOR 2012. 

Here is one of them:

* Gold will stage a powerful rally after bottoming at $1445 in January, but the buying spree will fall well short of $2000. Silver will fare relatively worse, falling to $18.35 before finding traction and recovering into the low $30s.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, it is true, I did post this before in a prior comment.  That being said, how in the living HADES does anyone make sense from these kind of calls.  Rick tells the world that silver will go down to $18.35 on Dec 30, 2011 and just over a month later says there is a JUICY TRADE at $35.53.  That's nearly a 100% difference of price in one fricken month.

This is exactly the reason I wrote the darn article THE COMING PARADIGM SHIFT IN SILVER.  What a complete farce if you ask.  The same thing occurred with CLIVE MAUND, who gave a bearish chart for silver on JAN 8, to go to $18.

Are MAUND and ACKERMAN getting the trading material from the same BAZOOKA JOE BUBBLE GUM WRAPPERS?

I don't mean to be a broken record, but at some point in time, these fellas are going to have to be confronted on these lousy calls.  I left a nice comment on Ackerman's website just an hour ago.  We will see what he says.

 

 
meegoreng1's picture

Unemployment report

This unemployment report that came out this morning is full of baloney! There is no WAY that unemployment has improved this last month or has been for the last few months.

I own a small business here in TX with a few employees and in 19 yrs that I have been in it, this is by far the WORSE sentiment about our economy I am getting from my customers. Every small business owner I talk with agree with this.  I cater to mostly the low to middle income and many are unemployed. Where are these jobs coming from that our crooked gubmint says are being created? Most of these factory workers are laid off for good. We are not a manufacturing base anymore. Those who were in the construction business are also laid off. We are not producing homes like we used to. In fact we have a glut of homes for sale. Many businesses are laying off including mine. Basically, the point is these jobs are lost permanently. Just look at the direction of our Food Stamps #s.

Wall Street and major corporations that do business globally may be reaping in record profits but believe me, there is no trickling down effects here. Main Street is suffering. Yes, it has been tough the last few years but personally, I am doing very well, thanks to the surge in gold and silver. I have been buying physical for the last 3 ½ yrs and am enjoying every moment of it.   

Thanks Master Turd and all that have contributed to this magnificent forum. I have learned lots for you all.

If ever there was an area in which to do the exact opposite of that which government and the media urge you to do, that area is the purchasing of gold.
Robert Ringer

Doc1800's picture

Austrian-

I have no silver , I have no gold, (damn boat) but I do have an opinion.  I would ease into gold and get a balanced PM stack .  It just makes sense to have your bases covered.  

boatman's picture

BIG turn around DOJI

on the 2 hour chart

1ShotAK's picture

I just sold my Quad for $100.00 :)

Yep, I took the advice off this board and sold my Quad for two $50.00 Canadian coins, yep 2 oz of gold. We have a radio program that allows you to call in and advertise on the radio, so I advertised it for $4,500 or 2 AGEs some guy called and asked if I would take 2 gold maples. "Well Ok".

Seeing how I gave $2,000 for the quad I think I did good :) so for a short time gold fell to $1,000 an oz for me. for some reason I feel guilty, ....I think I will get over it.

Pax Argentum's picture

Buying Silver and the FUBM

Not to confuse things acronymious, as it's always enjoyable to see a true FUBM in motion, but each time the EE caps it and creates that ugly waterfall I get the urge to log on to Apmex, order up a couple of tubes of silver maples and whisper FU BM.

Works for me, makes me feel better and increases the stack.

The FUBM works both ways. wink

Pax

Feed the Turd.

Be Prepared's picture

States consider alternative currencies of gold and silver

States consider alternative currencies of gold and silver

A growing number of states are seeking shiny new currencies made of silver and gold.

Worried that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. dollar are on the brink of collapse, lawmakers from 13 states, including Minnesota, Tennessee, Iowa, South Carolina and Georgia, are seeking approval from their state governments to either issue their own alternative currency or explore it as an option. Just three years ago, only three states had similar proposals in place.

"In the event of hyperinflation, depression, or other economic calamity related to the breakdown of the Federal Reserve System ... the State's governmental finances and private economy will be thrown into chaos," said North Carolina Republican Representative Glen Bradley in a currency bill he introduced last year.

Unlike individual communities, which are allowed to create their own currency -- as long as it is easily distinguishable from U.S. dollars -- the Constitution bans states from printing their own paper money or issuing their own currency. But it allows the states to make "gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts."

To the state legislators who are proposing state-issued currencies, that means gold and silver are fair game, said Edwin Vieira, an alternative currency proponent and attorney specializing in Constitutional law. And since gold has grown exponentially more valuable, while the U.S. dollar continues to lose ground, the notion has become increasingly appealing to state lawmakers, he said.

<Rest of the Article>

______________________________________________________________________________

If only this movement would catch on..... we might start on the path to turning this back into a Democratic Republic.....

Turd Ferguson's picture

What kills me

MODERATOR

is that "over 1000 subscribers" fork over $50/month for his guesswork.

Even more amazing is that someone pays ole Clive $75/month.

Trust me, the coming "revenue enhancement" here at TFMR will be much more affordable.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Patience, grasshoppah

MODERATOR

Silver will rise on the Globex after the CoT is released.

Justin's picture

Nothing New

Old news for some of us, but nice to see it making it's rounds in the MSM again:  

**Edited to remove quote and link since Be Prepared beat me to it while I was creating the comment.  The force is strong in that one.** 

 
Be Prepared's picture

Facebook....Smacebook.....

I don't understand the whole Facebook thing......  I don't have an account and can't see a reason to ever have an account.  I know my family would prefer that I have one, but then I say "Just write me a letter..... that works too you know!" 

Eddie Metal's picture

Bobby D

Here is the man we need to investigate and handle whomever is behind Turd's site issues................

Be Prepared's picture

New Highs on Low Volumes... octane vapors

Screen+Shot+200-v02-03+at+11.45.39+AM.pn
5 min ES

Abysmal volume today as we make new 2012 highs over 1339.75 .. looking for 1345 if 1340 trades with conviction and volume.  1335 support immediate .. 1330 perhaps keep in mind for sunday open. We have a few bond auctions next week which cause a few upside roadblocks..

Oil is rather muted but it did melt up into the 97 level with 97.50 being resistance. If 97.50 trades with conviction 98 could easily be in the cards.

Dollar saw a pop on the jobs number though has relented a bit... equities still not bothered by currency movements. <Link>

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