January Ends. What Will February Bring?

Wow! What a fun month! And whodathunkit? Back on 12/31, everyone was depressed and nervous. Here we are, just a scant 31 days later and the PMs are rolling again. Where will we be on Feb 29? Hmmm. I smell another "Hat Contest"!

OK, so here you go. February 29 is a Wednesday. Perfect. Let's give away two hats. One for the closest prediction for the Comex closing price of gold that day and another for the closing price of Comex silver that day. If any lucky Turdite can accurately predict both, not only will that person receive two hats, I'll throw in one of my old "Silver Keisers" for good measure. Three things:

  1. We need someone to keep a spreadsheet of all the entries. "H", you out there?
  2. The entry deadline is 6:00 p.m. EST tomorrow.
  3. Use the comments section of this thread to record your entry.

What a crazy day we had today. Just when gold and silver looked like they were going to break out of their current ranges, The Pig caught a bid and everything reversed. Unfortunately, yours truly did once again prove prescient as I warned everyone last night that a Pig bounce was possible today:

"We all should be watching The Pig rather closely. I keep anticipating some headline-induced bounce but it hasn't yet materialized. Pigatha has been in this nasty down channel for two weeks now with no end in sight. We must watch 79 very closely, though. It may try to double-bottom there and then move up with an attempt to break out of the channel."

And here was the chart from last night:

paper_1-30pig_0.jpg

Here is the updated chart:

paper_1-31pig.jpg

What concerns me in the short term is that that bottom looks pretty solid. I suspect that the POSX will continue to bounce and rally some overnight and into tomorrow. It could easily rally to 80 or even 80.20. This would have a negative impact on PM prices for those currently long. On the bright side, those of us looking for a dip in price to get long would probably welcome a little Pig rally.

So, if Pigatha does continue to perk up a bit, where might be the opportune point to buy in an attempt to pick up a little extra fiat? Fortunately, the charts are pretty clear, at the moment. Let's start with gold. Note the channel that is present on the daily chart. Gold has been in this channel for the entire month of January and it appears that it will stay there quite a bit longer. This is good. However, on the negative side, I still expect stout resistance in the area between 1750 and 1760. (We certainly got our first taste of it today!) Gold could conceivably stay within this channel yet move sideways for the next two weeks as it tries to overcome this area. Those looking for an entry point will plainly see one on the 2-hour chart. A little more Pig rally and we'll likely see gold dip toward 1723-1730. That sure looks like a good spot to me.

paper_1-31goldd.jpgpaper_1-31gold2.jpg

Silver looks similar and, if I had to pick one to buy on a dip, silver would be the one. You can see the same, month-long channel on the silver chart but the main resistance I see is still almost $2 above the current price. If a dip develops to 32.50 or so, the main resistance moves to $3 above. That might make silver tradable. We'll see. A dip to 32.50 is going to have to develop first and that is most certainly not a sure thing at this point. The area around 32.80-33.00 has been, and will continue to be, very solid support. Let's see what happens overnight and take another look in the morning.

paper_1-31silvd.jpgpaper_1-31silv2.jpg

Just a few more items before I call it a day:

Have a great overnight.  TF

9:50 am EST UPDATE:

Yes, we're back in the channel again. After threatening to bottom and break out of the channel, The Pig has reverted back to itself and has fallen back into the down channel it's been in for over two weeks. (I continue to bat .500 when attempting to predict what it will do which, again, is why I don't trade Forex.) The main thing, though, is that Pigatha has rolled over again. What does this tell us? Will the BLBS report on Friday really send it tumbling? We'll see...

paper_2-1ampig.jpg
Once the POSX turned last night, the metals rallied. Unfortunately, another day of Cartel and EE capping has kept price below 1750 and 34. I expect this to continue. With market participation so low and OI and volume so abysmal, it will likely take another "event" to shove things higher. Two weeks ago it was supposedly Mr. Sprott that caused the shorts to panic. Last week, it was The Bernank. By Friday, will it be the BLSBS that does the trick? Perhaps. Watch the POSX for clues.

paper_2-1amgold8.jpgpaper_2-1amgold2.jpg

paper_2-1amsilv8.jpgpaper_2-1amsilv2.jpg

Lastly, our buddy Gonzalo has written an interesting new piece. Click the link below and read it.

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2012/02/perniciousness-of-zirp.html

TF
 

509 Comments

Audrey's picture

On the Leap Day it will (may)be...

AU: 140,215.44

AG: 2,643.78

Er, Yen that is, but it does look far sexier that way don't you think?

or

AU: $1,843.01

AG: $34.75

Not very sexy at all, but pretty good looking nevertheless - this has got years to go yet.

Remember:

"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society" Jiddu Krishnamurti

With infinite luck and good fortune to everybody regardless of race, color, creed, or hair style  (except the EE of course).

A

T's picture

Feb 29 my guess

gold  .......   1784.50

silver .........  36.45

tropic2's picture

Feb closing prices

Au $1763.9

Ag $34.30

Cheers.

thurd aye's picture

Hail from South Africa

Hi , from the mountains of the Western Cape,RSA.

First post. my predictions  for PMs end Feb.Two famous tunes.

AU=1812

Ag=66.

Thats not Rands either .$$$.

Good luck people.

firefly's picture

Predictions

Gold   $1769.00

Silver  $38.40

Thanks

jaw777's picture

Metal prices

Silver $39.38
Gold $1844.14

beinki's picture

I checked the time line and my Silver Guru...

Chargin's picture

Price

Gold $1792

Silver $35.44

W's picture

Gold - 1792 Silver - 37.46

Gold - 1792

Silver - 37.46

Blackshook's picture

Feb Contest

Gold : $ 1778

Silver: $ 35.10

Cheers !!!

knb's picture

Feb 29 guess

Hi Turd,

thanks for all your info,

here's my guess

Gold : 1857.29

Silver : 36.22

Tecumseh's picture

Feb 29 is SHORT term. . .

and the SHORT term is a bear.

Gold $1442.50

Silver $25.20

Puneet's picture

My Prediction

AG 36.89

AU 1856.79

Hey Turd, hope to see your prediction too for Feb 29 at 6.00 PM EST today after the contest closes.......

Puneet, Mumbai Zaveri Bazaar

ClinkinKY's picture

Morning Toons

Posted Image

Jimbio's picture

Sure, i'll play! :) Gold:

Sure, i'll play! :)

Gold: $1636
Silver: $29.9

Perfect hedge!

RaRaRasputin's picture

My random guesses

Going for the overture numbers

AU: 1812.00 - supposedly written in honour of Baron Rothschild }(

AG: 49.43 

ClinkinKY's picture

Another Graph

Posted Image

ClinkinKY's picture

Change

Posted Image

ClinkinKY's picture

And finally...

Posted Image

lcalama's picture

Feb Prediction

Gold=1789

Silver=35.28

dsrcheetah's picture

feb prediction

1793.39 gold   35.44 silver , expect the usual fight all month to get there. Cheers, Tom

Riides's picture

Feb Predictions...

AU $1795

Ag $42.7

in the words of the lone ranger....hi-ho, Silver!

hopperf's picture

price prediction

1FEB2012

My prediction for the metals on 2/29 are:

Gold  1787.40

Silver  37.42

Darth's picture

1955.52 & 41.28

Gold} 1955.52

Silver} 41.28

Be Prepared's picture

TSA is your Friend!......

Be Prepared's picture

Fiscal Rectitude

StevenBHorse's picture

contest

au- 1860

ag- 39.50

gs478's picture

Contest

Au 1776

Ag 35.10

over

silverhoarder's picture

My guess

$1845 and $39.80

BostonMatrix's picture

i do like a challenge...

... so my guesses are:

Au - 1765

Ag - 35.78

but i think silver takes off again in april. gold laterin the year. basically, pretty much a year long correction/consolidation period from their highs.

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