Monday Mashup

In what should come as a surprise to no one, the PMs are lower this morning due to a slowly rising POSX. Let's watch today to see if the hard won resistance level from last week can become support this week.

Specifically, we'll be looking for gold to first hold 1720, which I see that it has already done once today. If the selling pressure becomes significant today and tomorrow, gold could fall all the way back toward rather stout support at 1705. Silver will first see support near 33 but, really, the entire area from 32.80 to 33 should serve as a solid floor for price. That said, DO NOT be surprised if a drop develops that takes silver down through 32.80. As we've been documenting here, the total OI and volume is so light in silver these days that we must expect extreme volatility, to the UPside and downside. I remind you of this simply to provide a warning so that no one gets all freaked out if silver is back to $32 by tomorrow. Frankly, I hope it is as I might have to re-invest a little "house money" if it were to pullback that far, that fast.

Below are your weekly charts. It's quite clear where the PMs are headed. HIGHER! However, while the Forces of Darkness have acquiesced somewhat this month, I expect them to begin reverting back to their customary roles as the metals mover higher from here. Gold will encounter significant resistance near 1750. Do you recall November and all of the trouble The Cartel gave it there? http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2945/amended-silver-support-levels $35.50 and then $33 were pretty significant numbers in silver back then, too. Once these 2012 rallies re-commence, look for silver to head to 35.50. It will likely encounter some rather stout, EE resistance there. If/when it bests that level, The Battle Royale will be at the down-sloping trendline that connects the highs of April and September. Gold will see The Cartel place barricades at 1750. Once it breaks through there, The Jackals will fall back and attempt to defend 1800. You can be assured that The Evil Ones will put up a significant fight at that level because, beyond there, there is nothing to stop gold from returning to its old highs of 1900+.

paper_1-29goldw.jpgpaper_1-29silvw.jpg

That's all for now. I will have more for you this afternoon, once I see the OI numbers from Friday.   TF

99 Comments

RaRaRasputin's picture

Thanks Turd

for the update & um .... first? :)

Edited to add:

New Ranting Andy with SGT Report (2 part)

RaRa

Dolomite's picture

My hangover doesn't make

My hangover doesn't make these Monday morning charts look any better.

Thanks for a fresh update Turd, great week to all.

Big L's picture

Vaporized

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/3-months-after-mf-global-bankruptcy-we-find-12-billion-or-more-client-money-has-vaporized

Vaporized, as in - it used to belong to YOU, now it belongs to US.

Vaporized......

Big L

Mickey's picture

Have to wonder

How much of the overnight attack is being run now as a consequence of the awareness, and recent articles of the 1700 pc trade?

Be Prepared's picture

Monday Morning Crush...

not surprising after such a run last week.....  I don't want a crazy run, but a progressive building march that creates a lot of support points along the way.

The government use to understand that it was important that every person grow their own food... but now you are eyed with suspicion and regulations....things change.....

JoeKa's picture

@BP

I don't want a crazy run - ditto
but a progressive building march - ditto
that creates a lot of support points along the way - hear hear!

Marblesonac's picture

Looks like

A nice setup for a Happy Tuesday!

murphy's picture

WOW!!!

I was away from Turdville since Thursday. Got caught up last night and all I can say is wow! SRS, unbelievable quality of work. Also, so nice to see the thousands of hat tips all around from both new and old posters. Like the manager in Major League said, " the veterans are really doin' it and the rookies are coming along. There are a few potential all stars. Hat tips to all!!

ReachWest's picture

Another Silly Cartoon

Thanks Turd - I, for one, won't be surprised to see a pullback - but I also won't be surprised to see things move up.

Here is another Turdville cartoon newscast. (This one was posted in the SpeakEasy late yesterday, but I thought I would add it here too). This episode discusses Eric Original's Financial Repression Forum and interviews a Greek citizen about the current debt situation.

PS - I read over on SilverDoctors.com that Blythe Masters is taking over as Chair at Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). Does anyone have any insight as to what this may mean? I know nothing about GFMA.

Mickey's picture

9:07 smash

turning on programs--immediately see SLV was trading 1000 shares for minutes leading up to 9:07--at 9:07 21k shares trade price down 11 cents now slowly recovering.

How this is not the topic of media or Congress is beyond explanation other than the entire system is corrupt. Call me a conspiracy guy I do not care (my friends think I am nuts) but all of this is extraordinary trading patterns but if its as consistent  and normal for PM is it still extraordinary? Just something to think about.

Oh well, after the market opens I'll close my hedges for a profit. If you can't beat them join them.

MonkeySmoke's picture

Thanks Turd...

for the update and encouraging words regarding the near term. Picked up some Au over the weekend, twice! The 2012 rally appears to be progressing nicely and as predicted. I, too, see the EE-CCC coming in pretty hard today. When I saw what was happening overnight it was all too clear the monkeys were out in numbers and were not going to allow another $0.50-0.75 move UP today. No worries, I don't play in their sandbox--so I don't really care what the CRIMEX has to say about the price; it is merely a bench mark as the current exchange rate. Happy trading to those that are playing in the sandbox with the criminals.

Dr G's picture

Turd, thanks for the update.

Turd, thanks for the update. In the case of your house money and the resistance lines you've laid out, what would you be looking at should silver fall back a bit more? April 12 $35 calls?

Pablo's picture

FOURTEENTH!!!! Woooooooooooooooo!!!!

Local coin shop report.

Silver is flying out the door at and they're not getting people in selling any great quantity. Selection is limited and premiums are going back up ($6 on eagles, $2 on generics)

Still plenty of gold to be had.

Senseosensei's picture

Blythe Masters

http://goldtent.org/?p=138137

The Witch will teach the Germans how to suppress silver to ad nauseam. Position limits? Just involve more banks, problem solved !

I wonder if Ruprecht will survive.....

agNau's picture

Spain Grounded!

No Fly Zone.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16787761
More stories like this forthcoming. Watch and learn to recognize what is coming to "a theatre near you!"
Crumbling Decay will be perceived as the new paradigm. The past will be viewed as a dream in the not too distant future.

FriedEggs's picture

We are still alive

at the start of week 5...

2012.

Go go gold and silver. 

.

Fried(e)

¤'s picture

Thanks big yellow hatted one

Looks good to me so far.

Euro up pretty big overnight and gold and silver down not that much despite it. Just a pigatha bounce for this EU summit where they blow smoke  and continue to do what they've been doing since December. Asset purchases and bond market support from the other members for each other. 

It's a shell game

s1lverbullet's picture

As always, thanks!

As always, thanks Turd for the charts and the analysis your a stud.

firstsilver's picture

Silver perversity and Happy/Turnaround Tuesdays

I find the George Costanza (Senfield character) approach works for silver -- do the opposite of your instincts. It worked for George, at least in the one episode he tried it.

So, when the mood is upbeat and silver is racing upward, it's time to be cautious. When silver is tanking and despair rules, time to buy.

In keeping with that, the customary Monday hits have been turned around with great frequency on Tuesday, an observation of others that I have been tracking and, a few times, participating in. So, if this is a buy-low opportunity this afternoon, so be it. The reward to leaning against the tide in the past often has come within 24 hours. I'll take a repeat of that.

Pablo's picture

Spainair crash

Interesting that you mention Spainair, on Aug 20 2008 we were to be on a Spainair flight out of Madrid (visiting relatives) but our connecting flight was over an hour late getting in and we missed the connection by about 5 minutes despite running full speed through the airport. They had told us the flight was delayed and everyone would make the connection if we ran. But they closed the gate right in front of us and would not let us on the plane (despite our insistence that we needed to get on). Angry at the gate crew we started back to the ticket counter to rebook. On the way back from the gate to the waiting area we saw the plane roll over and blow up just off the runway. 

JoeKa's picture

Trade like George Costanza!

¤'s picture

JoeKa

LMAO!  Thanks for the first laugh of the day. cheeky

Ned Braden's picture

Remember, too that George

Costanza was a legendary "hand" model........ :-)

JoeKa's picture

@Ned

Yes! I do hand jobs too.

No.wait.

Be Prepared's picture

Another Hit for the Baltic Dry Index....

Strongsidejedi's picture

1973 Penn State Commencement Address by Joe Paterno

http://pennstatermag.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/paterno1973commencementspeech.pdf

Just saw this interesting speech posted by some Penn State people and discussed by the BBC news site (Interesting that BBC will cover this and discuss it, but the US news media is only interested in Romney's antics and Gingrich's donations).

Joe Paterno died a few days ago of lung cancer after the longest career in college football.

I'm reposting his speech for the board to read.  It's a good speech.

Penn State Commencement Speech by Head Football Coach Joe Paterno

June 16, 1973

It is a great honor for me to have this opportunity to talk with you on a most important occasion for you and for Penn State.

When Dr. Oswald called me to his office a few months ago and, on behalf of your student committee, asked me to be your speaker, to be honest, I was thrilled. However, I wasn’t sure I should do it. I wondered whether it was good for the University or whether it was fair to you. Could I contribute something which would make this commencement a more meaningful experience for you?

Some of you have every right to feel let down that after four years of hard work, you have to listen to a coach at your graduation. Furthermore, what would outsiders think of this great University, having such an unlettered individual represent its academic community? But in spite of these and other misgivings, I accepted. I accepted because I realize that in a day when materialism is rampant, many of you felt that my interest in doing other things besides making money has in some way helped you to reaffirm your deal of a life of service, of dignity, and a life of meaning which goes beyond financial success.

Again, the fact that there has been generous praise from many places for my decision to remain at Penn State, made me wonder just how strong, at any price, has become our commitment to materialism and that perhaps I could say something to you which could put things in perspective. However, I assure that in stepping outside of my role as a football coach, I do it with great trepidation and humility. Who knows, I may even be the only commencement speaker this year who doesn’t give his opinion on Watergate. Although I do want to make one comment on President Nixon’s role in the affair, I’d like to know, how could the president know so little about Watergate in 1973 and so much about college football in 1969?

Now allow me to make some observations.

I chuckle at people who blame the "system" for our problems, just as I laugh at those who claim that we should have blind faith in our government and our institutions. What is this notorious "system"? In my game, people talk about offensive formations as the cure-all. After we lost to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, many people asked, "Are you going to switch to the wishbone formation?" Believe me, it isn’t the plays or the offensive system, which gets the job done. It is the quality of the players which makes the formation effective. And, it is you who make the organization work for you and you who will become victims of this system, if you fail to execute

your responsibilities to yourself and to your fellow human beings. You have a part to play and, if you loaf or quit, don’t sit back and complain that our method is no good. If each of us is easily seduced by expediency, by selfishness, by ambition regardless of cost to our principles, then the spectacle of Watergate will surely mark the end of this grand experiment in democracy.

One of the tragedies of Watergate is to see so many bright young men, barely over thirty, who have so quickly prostituted their honor and decency in order to get ahead, to be admired, to stay on the "team." These same young people within the short period of the last ten years sat in convocations such as this. They were ready to change the world. They didn’t trust the over-thirty generation. I warn you – don’t underestimate the world – it can corrupt quickly and completely. And heed Walter Lippman who wrote several years ago: "It is a mistake to suppose that there is satisfaction and the joy of life in a self-indulgent generation, in one interested primarily in the pursuit of private wealth and private pleasure and private success – we are very rich but we are not having a good time – for our life though it is full of things, is empty of the kind of purpose and effort that gives to life its flavor and meaning."

What Lippman wants us to realize is that money alone will not make you happy: Success without honor is an unseasoned dish, it will satisfy your hunger, but it won’t taste good.

This is why I enjoy coaching at Penn State so much. We set high goals for our people. My squad even has to listen to me quote Browning who said: "A man’s reach should exceed his grasp or what’s a heaven for." We strive to be No. 1. We work hard to achieve our goals and when Saturday comes and we walk on the grass in this stadium, we stand as a team. We tighten up our belts. We look across at our opponents. We say, come on, let’s go, let’s see how good you are, let’s play. We are ready. We play with enthusiasm and recklessness. We aren’t afraid to lose. If we win, great, wonderful – and the alumni are happy for another week. But win or lose, it is the competition which gives us pleasure.

It is being involved in a common cause which brings us joy and memories which endure in teammates. It is making our very best effort, that we have stretched to the very limit of our ability, which makes us bigger men and more able to stretch again: to reach even high as we undertake new challenges.

I’m sure that it is obvious to all of you that you are going out into a fragmented, disillusioned, and often times, confused society – a society which has promised more than it is now willing or perhaps able to deliver to our minority groups and, among others, to our poverty victims. There is corruption, fear, mistrust, lack of leadership, unequal justice, privileged economic groups, and all the abuses you would expect in a nation without consistent direction – in a country without a common purpose and a people unsure of moral commitments. We are experiencing the frustrations of a society which is desperately struggling with itself, afraid that at any moment, it will be ripped apart by deep-rooted racism which, regardless of all our enlightened medication,

persists as a cancer which defies cure. We cannot get rid of a war we do not want to fight. We cannot wash our hands of the blood that has been shed when we only wish peace and freedom for everybody. We are a decent people struggling with ourselves.

I read in The Washington Post last Sunday a quote from Dr. Gunnar Myrdal, the Swedish scholar. Commenting on Watergate, he said: "When I first arrived in America 30 years ago, I discovered a country constantly struggling for its soul. I suspect you grow weary of the struggle and occasionally wish for the peace that comes with not caring. But your ideals are deeply rooted in your life, preached, taught, and exhorted until they are part of the air you children breathe. Even in your failures to live up to that idealism, you salute it. You still believe that high principles would rule even when they do not. Wait brother, America will return to first things."

Wait brother, America will return to first things?

Hopefully, we will return to first things but it will not happen quickly or easily, and I would mislead you if I told you we are close to solving our problems or that I believe that this group in its lifetime can make this world perfect. Perfect is an awesome word. It denotes something that we may not even recognize when we see it or have it. So you may not make our society perfect but you can make it better and I guess it follows that first, you must get better before you can get perfect. We like to tell our football team, do the little things right and the big things will take care of themselves. Don’t look for the touchdown run all the time: Think about hitting in there tough play after play and then, boom, all of a sudden, a big play will present itself. I remember telling one of our quarterbacks who was being promoted as the pre-season All-American quarterback when he asked what he had to do to make it, I told him, "Just play your game, do all the little things right, don’t think about spectacular plays, and if you have the ability and a little luck, the big plays will come and you will be an All-American."

W.H. Auden said it beautifully when he wrote on the death of Sigmund Freud: "Everyday there die among us those who were doing us some good and knew it was never enough but hoped to improve a little by living."

Live your life so that by some little thing, you will improve our world just by living. But be realistic enough as you continue your adventure in life to understand that regardless of how strong you and how smart you are, you will at times become discouraged. The problems we face are agonizingly complex because they ultimately deal with people and their institutions.

And, you must have infinite patience, much understanding, and above all, great maturity. Our forefathers who carved out this country had blind faith in America. They had no obligations to the rest of the world and they had only to be concerned with what was best for their nation. They had never been beaten and they had supreme confidence. Our state of mind is different. We cannot morally escape our responsibility to the rest of the world and we can never again do what

is right just for America. We will never again have a supreme confidence that everything we do is right – not after Vietnam and Kent State. Not after assassinations of Martin Luther King and John Kennedy, not after the death of Bobby Kennedy, and not after Watergate. But this doesn’t mean we can be less decisive than our forefathers.

We must always act but when we are wrong, we must be mature enough to realize it and act accordingly. This is where greatness lies and national frustrations end. We must be mature enough to admit we didn’t win in Vietnam, that we don’t really have peace with honor, that we can’t force all of our citizens to love each other – then we can stop tearing ourselves apart. We shall act, and we shall act with good intentions. Hopefully, we will often be right, but at times, we will be wrong. When we are, let us admit it and immediately try to right the situation. Our country right or wrong. Yes. But love her enough, respect her enough that when she is wrong, we stand bigger for admitting it.

There is another thing I tell my team. I tell them to keep hustling, go all out on every play no matter how bad things look – because if you keep hustling, something good will happen. A familiar cry up and down our sideline when things are going badly is: "Keep hustling, something good will happen" and usually, it does.

So keep hustling. You’ll do all right. Enjoy yourselves. Enjoy life. Have some fun. Our squad enjoys kidding me because on a nice day before a game, I like to walk into the locker room and say, "Boy, what a day – oh, to be young again." I tell them—enjoy the game, you will only get to play so many in your life. The same goes for you, because you see misery and inequality and frustrations around you. Is this a reason to commit yourself to a miserable existence? That’s nonsense. Do your best. Maybe you will be the uncommon man who can do more than anyone, but in any case, do as those two great losers in life, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, did, "Have a hell of a good time doing it."

Let me end on a personal note. We have loved you because you have given us our challenge, our joy of living. You have inspired us to stretch. You have disrupted our comfortable thinking. You have made us re-evaluate, think again about our ideals and our principles. You have made us look again at our souls.

We hope you have loved each other because a little bit of you is inside one another. John Steinback said in

The Grapes of Wrath: "Maybe man doesn’t own his own soul, only a piece of a big man."

I cannot adequately describe to you the love that permeates a good football team – a love of one another. Perhaps as one of my players said: "We grow together in love – hating the coach."

But to be in a locker room before a big game and to gather a team and to look at grown men with tears in their eyes, huddling close to each…reaching out to be part of each other…to look into strong faces which say "If we can only do it today"….to be with aggressive, ambitious people who have lost themselves in something bigger than they are – this is what living is all about.

We have shared four years together, years we will never forget, and we hope this short journey has made us all a little better.

We wish you godspeed and we wish you good luck, but most of all, we wish you peace.

 

 

Strongsidejedi's picture

US Gov't deleting Megaupload user's data

Report from BBC (again not a lick of mention in the US broadcast cable news media).

 
s2man's picture

Thanks again, Turd

At this point in time, aka now, I see POSX up 0.61%, but spot gold down less than 1% since the Friday close.  And April gold down only 0.31%.  So even though PMs are down, we are still winning.

johnboatcat's picture

Spent the weekend at the FEMA Camp

Wanted to get the lay of the place before the chow line gets too long when all of you guys show up! :-)

agNau's picture

@Pablo

Glad to hear of your missed flight. I have always believed in no coincidences. Your story reinforces!

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