Headed Out

But only because I had to register 1st

Thurd

Third not anymore... 

gold today. I was staring down some 2012 Eagles, but the premium was too high.

Have a great weekend everybody!

demon alcohol was involved, sorry to say.  And testosterone too.  A bad combination.  I left 5 teeth on the pavement, but more or less OK otherwise 

289, three speed.  God, that thing could fly.  Neck snapping acceleration...

What an idiot my Dad was for letting me buy it.

Yeah my dad didn't want to buy me and my brother that oldsmobile 442 back in the day. I'm still pissed about that. Have a good weekend people. I'm offshore so I have a lot of internet time to lurk and make ridiculous comments on CNBC.

Silver hustling to $34 in the close. It wants it. What a week. Started near 30.25 and moving at 34. Suck it Blythe!

Your old man probably saved you some teeth!

Finally... It was getting a little depressing to always have to revise my excel silver book down every week.

Allow me to paint with a broad brush (the numbers are close enough). For the week:

Silver up $4

Gold up $100.

​That's the real deal. Stack it up my friends.

Sweet 'stang if I ever saw one!    I didn't have a hot ride back in HS or after.

Dad's old car worked nicely back then and was slower. Good thing!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?authkey=CPmaiOsH&key=0AsAy8x4Mq0...

Turd,

You gotta chime in on the miners. What a week. HUI climed 57 points off the Wednesday lows. The candlestick on Wednesday is one of those boners you may never see again.  After a dismal 2011, those who trade the miners are feeling much needed relief.

What do you think? Do the miners have legs here. Or are we looking at an oversold bounce?

Thanks.

“It was his newsletter, and it was under his name, so he always got to see the final product...He would proof it." Renae Hathway, a former secretary in Ron Paul’s company and former supporter of the Texas congressman, in the Washington Post today

someone told me about this today. i have not sEEn the original "GOLD RUSH" but watched this preview...and it lOOks like we may have located both ferd T and last rebel in the same video ... or is this a ED sighting??? http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/bering-sea-gold/

Believe it or not, I had one of these in high school. I turned 16 and my best friend's dad (his son drowned the year before) took me to his old garage and showed me his car. I restored it for him and he let me drive it for my last two years of high school 76-77. could get all the parts I needed from the JC Whitney mail order catalog. I took my GF to a halloween party dressed in a zoot suit and she wore an old 1920s flapper dress. What a blast. 

1940 Buick special  3 on the tree straight eight

Absolutely fantastic interview of Kyle Bass.  Great example of what's we're all up against - statists, statist-protecting media, etc.

http://bit.ly/ywzqNI

Not seeing 1740, but waiting with baited breath.  Netdania frozen at 1739.937.  Bit of a tease there.  ;)

I have a print of 1740 on Thinkorswim /GC(J2)

Alex Jones isn't the only one putting forth that hypothesis - I've read similar opinions elsewhere. My sense of it is I wouldn't put it past 'em to try to pull a false flag operation, as successful as past ones have been, but on the other hand, there's been so much internet chatter about it even if they were thinking about pulling some nefarious stunt I doubt they would try to pull it off now. Must suck to be a warmongering sociopath and get second guessed like this.

I am SO sick of hearing about the f'ing RP newsletter BS. The guy is so squeaky clean they have to keep shoving the only thing they can find - 20 year old newsletters in our face. Now that the whole articles have been published and it's clear that Paul didn't write any of them, the latest is he SIGNED OFF on them. Unbelievable.

You know what? I don't care anymore. If he did write them, I don't care anymore. It's like this, who else you going to vote for, another war mongering freedom hating constitution trampling spendthrift or somebody who actually says they oppose all the crap that's been going on the last 50+ years, says they'll work to roll back as much of that as they can, and has a voting record to back it up?

Classic Gartman on CNBS today...$200 after the bottom is in, it's now time to buy gold. Shear genius! Didn't he say that gold was "done" when it was heading down through $1600 and sell, sell, sell!? If you do exactly opposite of what he says you'll do just fine.

As for me, I'm stickin' with the Turd.

Why 1/25? It isn't like the Fed hadn't reiterated its ZIRP before and the MFG gold market just yawned and rolled over on us. And they didn't make a circus out of the debt limit this time either.

Good to see 1oz Krugerrands north of 1800 again. Looks like coin is maintaining the "natural" $60 spread. At some point, people are going to stop taking MFG gold seriously, but it doesn't look like they are at the moment.

Anyways. Here we are, 8/2/11 - The Sequel. If this keeps up, I'm going to have to start posting 80s music videos again...

Santa say, no more 1500 :)

There will always be dips in the paper price. But will there always be physical? That is the question, is it not.

If told you that an item is worth 10,000, would you argue about paying an extra 100.00 for it, if you got it for an 87% discount?

I posted this to a different Forum.  I did this work around the beginning of January.  I meant to post it then, but got really sidetracked by some other studies.  Here it is.  A little late, but still has value, I think.

Here is my take on the silver COT report, which I believe is uber-bullish.  This chart was part of my personal New Year's analysis and a basic part of my decision to go strongly long at the beginning of the year.

If you put the commercial net position in a channel, you can see that times when the net position was at the top of the channel were all excellent buy opportunities.  We are currently at (or close to) one of these points which is very bullish -- particularly long term.

Also, I color coded the net long chart into colored regions:

• Green: price rising as net commercial position falls (Commercials selling strength).
• Red: price falling as net commercial position rises (Commercials buying weakness).
• Yellow: price rising and net commercial position rising at the same time (Commercial short squeeze).

The green and red modes are the typical, usual modes: price goes up, commercials are net sellers; price goes down, commercials are net buyers.

The yellow seems to happen only at special times, particularly when touching the bottom of the channel.  This is when the commercial shorts are getting squeezed and they are forced to buy in the face of rising prices.  (This is the basic reason for the rocket ride up to $50 last year.)

People seem to think that the normal mode should be the opposite of Green and Red and I'm not sure why -- I guess it is counter-intuitive.

I've seen a number of people (including some with websites and supposed PM experts) saying that the COT is wrong because the price of silver continued to fall as the commercials continued to cover shorts.  I.E., if the commercials are covering shorts, then price should be going up, but since the COT does not show this, it must be incorrect or falsified or irrelevant -- BUT THIS IS ALMOST NEVER THE CASE.  The normal, usual modes are the red and green modes.  The yellow, short-squeeze mode is highly unusual.

I think this basic misunderstanding is the basis of many people saying that the COT is false or not useful.

Another thing I've heard (especially between October and December last year) is that the COT has never been so bullish, and yet silver keeps dropping; and this is evidence that the COT report is useless or falsified or unreliable.

The thing which is missing is the placing of the net position into a rising channel in order to truly compare current levels to earlier levels.  (As an engineer, I would say that you need to remove the low frequency component of the waveform.)  In other words, the relative level of the commercial net position is more important than the absolute level.  And you really need to look at the bigger picture to see that.

I guess that this is part of the reason that some feel the COT is not reliable or useful.

It may be that the Comex will fail or fall into disuse.  It may be that MF Global type theft and/or a complete disintegration of the financial system will eliminate the futures markets.  It may be that people using futures or other paper vehicles will lose all of their money.  I also strongly suspect that real gold is being dumped on the markets by central banks to manipulate the markets, which does not show up in the COT report.

But I don't see an indication that the COT is incorrect or not relevant.

I believe that the bullishness of the COT report in both gold and silver is real and relevant.

NOTE: The color coding could be broken up into smaller partitions than shown.  E.G., there are times when a green region could be better split into a green, then red, then green region.  But the chart becomes much less readable.  This does not change my observations.  The last yellow area could definitely be broken down into "yellow, green, red, green, yellow", but it is less readable.

NOTE: There are 4 yellow regions shown above.  3 of the 4 preceded a crash in silver.  So a time of "yellow mode" is a good time to make money, but also a good time to be careful.  Commercials buying into strength means higher reward, but also higher risk.

NOTE: Silver could definitely drop further or move sideways, allowing the net position to move up even more than it is now.  So I'm not saying that silver cannot go down and retest $30 or $26.  But if it does, then the COT will only become more bullish.  I'm very strongly long right now.

My apologies.  I see MW's silver ticker it futures, not spot.  My bad.  Though, futures are what Turd charts...  So I could pretend I'm as smart as the big T, but I won't.

Still, a good day/week.  Cheers to all